SmoothD there is a 2-part answer to your question about the SD/SF game.
Again, firstly, if public is on team B and the line move starts to move towards team A, then Team A looks like the sharp play.
However, there are head fakes to consider. Let me illustrate, as this game looks close to a PK and I mentioned in earlier post why I avoid these.
Let's say Vegas knows a game is a true PK, but they like Team A more, so they make team B a slight favorite of -115. Consequently the public hammers team B, because the buster public likes the favorites at home.
Okay fine, but what if new information comes up and all of a sudden Vegas is afraid Team B is gonna win! Now they gotta get money in on team A, so they swing the line to team A -115, bringing the busters onto Team A.
You see? So this would be an example of a dangerous line move, because it is so close to a PK. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the play when it's so close to a PK, same thing in basketball when a team goes from +1 to -1 this could easily be a set-up.
I'd much rather take a team that's +1 then -1.
Buster mentality works like this:
"Hey, I want to take the team that's gonna win, and Team B is -1 and the favorite so they should win. To make things even better, Team B is at home, and there's no spread to cover, just -1, so they just have to win! Let's take Team B!!!
The sharp play then would be to get on Vegas' side and take the +1 team. If I like an away dog of +1 like this, and the line moves to favor them, it's a no-play for me.
, because I liked the wrong play along with the other busters.
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