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Bollox World Cup Futures, Picks, Props, Discussion

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Posted: #26
lets talk about cards

a lot of US books wont have these markets but I've always made money on card betting in world cups, its very predictable. Without wanting to offend anyone, african teams defend clumsily, there's always a high proportion of cards involving african teams and south american teams are hot headed and love to roll around or "flop" getting the ref to give cards to the opposition. I will be "buying" card totals in all of those continents ' games.

some examples Uruguay's 18 qualifying games produced 90 cards at an average of 5 

, Colombia games produced 105 cards at just over 6.5 per game. Colombia received three red cards in their 16 qualifiers

Chile's disciplinary problems surfaced again in qualifying with two straight red cards being picked up, plus 33 bookings.

 Ivory Coast's eight qualification games produced 31 cards in total at nearly 3.9 per game. Ivory Coast received 20 of those cards, all of which were yellows.

FIFA tells refs to clamp down at the start of every world cup, the total yellow card count is 278, thats actually a little high but i wouldnt play the under but i will back Over 17.5 red cards, i can see a total in the 20's with tired defenders bringing down attackers in the hot conditions.
 
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Posted: #27
I love card betting........... nice insights
 
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Posted: #28
thanks jack 

so many great opportunities and prop bets in world cups

I'm not a fan of African teams as I wrote in the group previews and I could see none of them getting out of the group stage. Thats around 9/2, but in all likelihood one will go through and that would be Ivory Coast for me, they are in a very weak group. Colombia should win but they are probably better than Japan and Greece. 13/8 is a fair price.

There's a couple of props on penalties converted which include shootouts and I really like over 34 at 7/4, if a match goes to penalties, there HAS to be 10 penalties taken, 2 or 3 matches at least usually go to penalties so that looks a great bet.

Highest scoring team = you have to go with a team that is going to go far in the tournament and I thought Argentina would be shorter at 7/2. Take your pick from Messi, Aguero, Higuain, Lavezzi, Di maria, their attacking options are downright scary!!! They should be favs in this market, not Brazil.

Probably going to look at Golden Boot/top goalscorer tomorrow

And somebody pm'd me about the results from friendlies in the past week, - I've barely looked at the results, they will have no bearing on the world cup itself just like Pre-season games in most sports are forgotten once the regular season starts.






 
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Posted: #29
Mr B.....

You are so right.....props are a staple in world cup action......especially when desperation sets in....I too like the card totals and you hit itright on the head tthere are thosecwith finesse and those that are thumpers!! Ha

Cheers
Investinsports
 
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Posted: #30
Invest 

Golden boot

Back someone at a big price, dont back Messi or Neymar, Messi only scored one goal in 2010, think of this as a 200 runner horse race, you wouldnt want to back something at a short price would you.

5 or 6 goals willl win this or give you a share of first place, it helps if your player has a whipping boy in the group stages like say Australia or Iran for "target practice"

So, I like Dzeko at 66-1 who will probably score all of Bosnia's goals.

Expect teams to man mark suarez so cavani at 55-1 should get opportunities.

Hulk is a ridiculous price at 50-1, at 5 times the price of Neymar, that is just silly.

Hazard is also 66-1 and although not a forward scored 16 times for chelsea this season, expect him to bomb forward regularly.

And I also like Immobile for Italy, young and improving all the time, 80-1 is very big on a raw talent and again no reason he should be twice Baloteli's price.

Those should all give a great run for the money at massive prices and some books allow you to back them "each way" to finish in the top 4 goalscorers so you'd probably get paid out if they scored 4.



 
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Posted: #31
dzeko and cavani
 
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Posted: #32
I really like Immobile, but it looks like Prandelli will (at least for the first game) only start Balotelli upfront. I see Immobile being our Toto Schillaci this year 
 
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Posted: #33
. Best of luck
 
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Posted: #34
Best of luck.  We have a lot of the same predictions for group qualification. It's hard to see past Brazil, Argentina, Germany, and Spain.  One of those 4 should take it.  Other teams that I could see making a deep run are Portugal, Chile, and Italy.  In the last 5 world cups the 10 finalist have been 14/1 or lower.  I see a Brazil-Spain, Brazil-Argentina final, but lean to the 1st one.  Spain's gotta win their group although, finish 2nd in the group = 1st round elimination game vs Brazil.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by UnderdogKing:

Best of luck.  We have a lot of the same predictions for group qualification. It's hard to see past Brazil, Argentina, Germany, and Spain.  One of those 4 should take it.  Other teams that I could see making a deep run are Portugal, Chile, and Italy.  In the last 5 world cups the 10 finalist have been 14/1 or lower.  I see a Brazil-Spain, Brazil-Argentina final, but lean to the 1st one.  Spain's gotta win their group although, finish 2nd in the group = 1st round elimination game vs Brazil.

Correction.  9/10 have been 14/1 or lower.  Germany was 20/1 in 2002.
 
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Posted: #36
zamigo, mw 

campo, agree that italy may go 5-4-1 and just play balotelli and bring immobile on as a super sub  but even in that role i can see him nicking a goal or two running against tired defenders, Immobile has had an amazing year scoring 22 for lowly Torino, I like the schillachi analogy.

Underdog, , Spain Brazil would be a mouthwatering 2nd round match but they should both win their groups. Even though it was 12 years ago, I'm amazed germany was 20-1 for any tournament, As Gary Lineker once said, Football is a simple game. Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win.

Gary Lineker
 
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Posted: #37
can't believe it all starts tomorrow

can't wait 

couple of final plays

Australia to be lowest scoring team at 9/2, ( i dont think they'll score)

Argentina to be worst disciplined team at 9-1, they'll go further than most and have a number of hard tacklers on their team. thats a nice price.

I expect to see a lot of first half unders as teams start cautious and then late goals as teams go for it and players get tired in the stifling heat

GL all


 
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Posted: #38
My favorite frequent poster on forum thanks for insight might have to look at Argentina worst discipline that is a great price. Best of luck throughout the tournament bollox.
 
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Posted: #39
hey bollox i need a top goalscorer bet for paddypowers promotion, who is your fav pick out of the ones you listed? and i need an outright winner for the tourn for their other promo, who would be your fav out of the 4 you selected? much appreciated my man 
 
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Posted: #40
Let's get this party started 
 
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Posted: #41
thanks so much stl, hope u have a good one too

dav, just saw that promotion, get a free bet every time the player you pick scores, thats great, just for the purposes of that bet I'd go with Aguero and Brazil

lets do this hat 
 
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Posted: #42
As unbelievable as it sounds, it looks like Prandelli will start a 4-1-2-2-1 against England so a false 4-3-2-1 or with the players chosen it looks more like a 4-5-1. It should a very defensive matchup.
 
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Posted: #43
campo, you're probably right, both teams would probably be happy with a point, the pitch looks terrible as well which won't be conducive to good football being played, the under looks nailed on
 
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Posted: #44

GL bollox.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #45
Van (handshake)

No play in opening game for me, sometimes you get funny results 1st game of a tournament.
 
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Posted: #46
The pitch is indeed in horrendous conditions. They might be better off playing in the streets like we used to as kids in Europe 
 
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Posted: #47
GL Mr. B!!!!
 
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Posted: #48
GL Bollox
 
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Posted: #49
hehe campo,but then  they would have to play "rush goalie" and 25 against 25

suns, samJacK 

so a soft pen for Brazil and Neymar could have been sent off for his elbow on Modric but as I alluded to in an earlier post, expect Brazil to get these sort of decisions as the home nation.

Friday previews coming up.
 
 
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Posted: #50
gl bollox 
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