Bollox World Cup Futures, Picks, Props, Discussion

Question

Good to see some World cup threads popping up, the 4 year wait to the greatest tournament in the world is almost over.

I'm going to preview one group a day and then look at the golden boot market and then prop bets like cards and then I may even tell you who's going to win the whole shebang.

mr_bollox · Answer

Good to see some World cup threads popping up, the 4 year wait to the greatest tournament in the world is almost over.

I'm going to preview one group a day and then look at the golden boot market and then prop bets like cards and then I may even tell you who's going to win the whole shebang.

mr_bollox · Answer

Ok, lets get this party going.Happy Memorial day, if your loved one fought for this country, we salute them and thank you for their service.Group A Brazil - Its tricky to know how good this team is, they haven&#x27;t had to play any qualifying matches and apart from Neymar, there are no superstars. They have "Big Phil" Scolari back as manager who of course won the World cup in 2002 and Carlos Alberto Parreira who won the world cup in 94 is their technical director. So Brazil clearly have the personnel there who know how to get this done.Brazil showed in last year&#x27;s Confed cup how hard it will be for them to be beaten on home soil. There are 17 world cup rookies and no place for vets like Kaka or Robinho, I&#x27;ll look at Brazil in more detail later but they win this group, winning all 3 games.Cameroon - African teams play very physical football and get a lot of cards with their play, Etoo leads the line and Mbo and Song are a decent midfield partnership. The books have them as outsiders for this group but I expect them to win a game.Mexico - El Tri are so lucky to be here, qualifying was a disaster and they seemed to change manager every few months, but that was history. Mexico have got out of the group stage at every world cup since 1994 and I like them to show some form and come 2nd in this group. Chicarito had a poor season for Man Yoo but with Peralta and Rodriguez leading the line with him, I can see Mexico getting the results they need against Cameroon and Croatia.Croatia - The old Yugoslav teams have great technical ability and there is no better midfield link up player than Luka Modric. Srna is a rock at the back and this team will try and win games in the counter. However, I think the lesser european teams will struggle in this heat and humidity and make an early exit.my Prediction :1) Brazil2) Me-hi-co3) Cameroon4) Croatiathe straight "forecast", shall we call it an exacta ? pays 15/8 and that is a decent price. And Brazil are 6/5 to win all 3 games, thats not really a price I would take but thats what I see happeningGroup B Preview coming up to tomorow

PeterBlack · Answer

Mr.BVery much indeed looking forward to hearing your thoughts for all the groups, thanks for sharing!

mr_bollox · Answer

Thanks Peter

ugh, the day after a holiday

, still at last Tottenham got a new manager

ok back to business :

Group B - Espana - its all right being a spaniard having won the last 3 major international tournaments, that probably ends here as their team is ageing a little but look at how spanish teams carved up the europa and champions league, they are still a class act and they win this group.

Holland - The world cup runner ups and I think this is one of the shocks of the tournament and they dont get out of the group. Like spain, the squad is ageing but the critical thing for me is the likes of RVP, Sneijder and to a lesser extent Robben didnt have the seasons they had 3 or 4 years ago, there;s not much young talent in the dutch squad and who can blame Van Gaal for mentally thinking about his new challenge at Manyoo.

Chile - I loved watching this team in the last world cup, they were bombing forward whenever they could. While other teams will be wilting in the heat, they'll be running past them, watch Alexis Sanchez come into his own and Vidal is a top class midfielder.

Australia - they will get their behind handed to them, their only decent player is 34 year old Tim Cahill - the rest play in the very weak A league or in the fairly uncompetitive asian leagues, they will likely lose all 3 games and may not even score.

Spain to win the group at 8/11 is short but solid,

Spain Chile "exacta" is 10/3

Australia to lose all 3 group games at 11/8 maybe the best bet here.

Holland not to qualify is 11/8

Group C preview coming up tomorrow

beertapper · Answer

like the exactas sir..been thinking a lot about who the "france" of the 2010 tourney will be this time round...one of the touted sides will make an early exit, could well be "de" Dutch

mr_bollox · Answer

thanks beer, I think they&#x27;ll be a number of european sides who will struggle, and Van de Vaart who would have been one of Holland&#x27;s midfield anchors has just been ruled out of the world cup with injury.

mr_bollox · Answer

Group C

Colombia - million dollar question is will Falcao make and be fit for the tournament. I think they win this group even he's half fit, they still have attacking talent in Rodriguez, Martinez and Gutierrez and they finished 2nd in South American qualifying, winning 9 games.

Greece - Greece are a great team for bettors, such predictable play, they try and win every game 1-0 and defend for their lives. in 10 european qualifying matches, they scored just 12 goals and only conceded 4 so dont bet overs when theyre playing!

Ivory Coast - I dont like backing African sides in world cups, their overall record is poor and their teams dont gel probably because they dont have any domestic leagues to speak of. The Toure brothers are the class act of this team and with Drogba and Kalou upfront, they will have their supporters.

Japan - bit of an unknown quantity for me - Honda (not the car) has turned some heads playing for the Milanese and Kagawa is a "Super sub " at manyoo, they creditably got out of the group stages in 2002 and 2010.

One of the more low key groups, I cant pick a runner up but I think Colombia are a solid play to win the group at 4/5 and go under 2 in all Greece games.

Group D tomorrow.

mr_bollox · Answer

Group DAh England, my native country, always over-hyped and fails to deliver, a bit like Tottenham really so twice the punishment for me then!So few english players play in the EPL and it shows in this team, Gerard and Lampard were in their prime in the last world cup, they&#x27;ll score goals with the pacey sturridge and rooney hustling as he does but the defense is poor. Englishmen dont like playing in hot, sticky humid conditions, they dont make it out of the group.Uruguay - struggled in world cup qualifying, having to play a playoff match to qualify and apart from that man Suarez, they dont have a lot of quality throughout the team. Upfront Forlan is still useful and Cavani is a great foil for Ibra at PSV so like England expect goals and a dodgy defense.Costa Rica - With question marks over the principals here, you might be thinking I&#x27;d give them a shoutout but their squad is very ordinary, Ruiz should score a few for them but they should finish bottom of the group.Italy - A world cup isnt the same without Italy figuring prominently, and after going out in the group stages last time, they wont make the same mistake again.The likes of Buffon and Pirlo won the world cup in 2006 and that sort of experience cant be bought. Many eyes will be on Balotelli, on his day, he is unstoppable.1) Italy decent price to win at 13/82) Uruguay ( the exacta pays 4-1)3 ) England (to not qualify pays 6/5)4) Costa Rica, they are 15-8 to lose all 3 group games, while I dont think they will win a game, they could sneak a draw somewhere.Tricky group and we&#x27;ll know a lot more about it after the first set of games but thats how I think it&#x27;ll pan outGot a busy night tomorrow so Group E preview will have to wait til saturday.

bomber0104 · Answer

Agree with you on Holland not making it out of the group

as for C, it wouldn't surprise me if Japan makes it. I think they have a better team than Greece and play a better team game than Cote D'ivoire

mr_bollox · Answer

bomber, japan are a real dark horse for me, they could surprise a few people for sure.

mr_bollox · Answer

Group EOne of the duller groups to analyze but still throws up some interesting matchups.Lets start with Ecuador, traditionally one of the lower lights of south american football, their best achievement on the world cup stage is getting to the round of 16 in 2006, their best players are Valencia who plays for Manyoo and midfielder Noboa who plays for Dynamos Moscow. I think this is the one team who will do worst from the home continent.France - eveyone remembers the frogs capitulating in 2010, that won&#x27;t happen again, Deschamps is a manager everyone respects, there is a lot of class in this squad, Lloris in goal, Pogba, Ribery, Cobaye to name a few. I&#x27;m not sure if I would take 4/5 on them winning the group but they are a worthy favorite.Switzerland - bit of a dark horse here aswell, breezed thru qualifying winning 7 and drawing 3. Most of their squad play in the Bundesliga and they shrewdly appointed Hitzfeld as coach who won 2 Champion leagues with different clubs, Dont underestimate the swiss.Honduras - the whipping boys of the group and should finish bottom. I&#x27;m not going to waffle on things I dont know but they look very limited in all departments.1) France2) Swiss (exacta pays 5/2)3) Ecuador (not to qualift from group stage pays 4/54) Honduras.a word on the friendlies or exhibitions that are going on as teams prepare for the world cup, that has no bearing on how a team will do, you should treat them like spring training games.Group F tomorrow

Swoop · Answer

Mr_bollox - class of covers group.

mr_bollox · Answer

cheers swoop Group FHave to start with Argentina don&#x27;t we, and we have to start with Messi who had a disappointing time in South Africa, Messi is now 26 and in his prime, with world cups only every 4 years, this may be his last chance . So no pressure then. Like a lot of South American teams, they are "top- heavy", lots of attacking talent, throw in Aguero, Higuain, Angel de Maria but their weakness is in defense. Nevertheless, they win all 3 group games and top the group.Bosnia and Herzegovina - another of the old Yugoslavian countries and they were mightily impressive in qualifying winning 8 of 10 with 30 goals scored and just 6 conceded. For a country with a population under 4 million, thats even more impressive, Man City striker Dzeko is the class act here and he will be helped by Pjanic in midfield and Spahic at the back. Should punch above their weight again.Nigeria - population of 174 million but like most african teams, disappointing at the world cup. in 2002 and 2010 they didnt get out of the group and I expect the same here. Apart from Bawlmer&#x27;s mate Mikel who is probably the best non scoring midfield in the EPL, there&#x27;s not a great deal of quality here.Iran - Another team with a poor world cup record, ,theyve never made it out of the group and they will likely finish bottom here.  No-one in their squad stands out as even half decent.1) Argentina2)Bosnia - Exacta pays 7/53) Nigeria4) Irannot much value in fading Nigeria and Iran, I will likely be backing Argentina on the asian H&#x27;caps in this group.Group G tomorrow or wednesday

BostonKen · Answer

Thanks for the information. I don&#x27;t know chit about soccer, so I used your thread as a guide to fill out  a couple World Cup Brackets.I had a question? How many teams do you estimate have a legit shot at winning this tourny? Just looking at the odds, it seems like only 4. Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Spain. I put down a very small bet on Germany already.You appear to be high on Chile. Are they a waste of money at 40-1, or do they have an outside shot to win this thing?

mr_bollox · Answer

Ken, only 8 teams have ever won the World Cup and yeh, it's hard to see past the big 4 you mentioned but yes I do like chile and they're due to meet brazil in the last 16, that's a matchup that could cause problems for the host nation. At those odds, they're definitely a value play.
GL with the brackets

BostonKen · Answer

Thanks, bollox, I appreciate the help. Good luck to you too.

mr_bollox · Answer

Group G -Deutschland - so much class in the German team - I dont know where to start, such a world cup pedigree, hard to see them not making the semis at least. They win the group.Portugal - all about Ronaldo who I expect to have some WTF moments, he&#x27;s had a better season than Messi, Moutinho is a classy midfielder and Coentrao is a top defender. Solid pick for runner up in the group.USA - would love to see them advance and they would in a weaker group but they just dont have the personnel to advance against germany and portugal. I really like Michael Bradley, he got invaluable experience playing for Roma, he&#x27;s a nice outsider bet at 16-1 to be top goalscorer.Ghana - another African casualty, Essien&#x27;s best years are behind him, Boateng and Gyan are useful but not much more.Germany Portugal for a 1-2 finish,  the exacta pays 6-4 but the dual forecast (in either order) pays 4-5, I&#x27;m not big on paying any juice but its very hard to see both of them not advancing.

mr_bollox · Answer

I dont have inside contacts in FIFA like some people here but I have been hearing that the Portugese are very worried about Ronaldo's fitness, Portugal still have the quality to come 2nd in the group without him or even if he's only half fit but it would be a big blow to have him not at his best in a world cup.

Has anyone got any horse placenta ?

mr_bollox · Answer

ok last Group - HOne of the weaker groupsAll eyes on Belgium - full of great, young EPL players like Hazard, Lukaku, Kompany etc but lack experience at this level, I&#x27;m thinking they&#x27;ll do better in 2018. Should win this group thoughRussia - really dont know what to make of this team, virtually the whole team plays in the domestic league which is a big negative when you are playing different countries with different playing styles. The climate will surely be a hindrance to them as well.South Korea - always a bit of an unknown quantity - did get out of the group stages in 2010 and have been to every world cup since 1986. Son Heung min is the messi of the far east.Algeria - Poor record at world cups - Bougherra and Taider are the class of the team but I can see them going home without a win.1) Belgium - 8/11 is the best price I see on them winning, thats a good bet even with the juice, they should  win all 3 group games - which is a nicely priced 19/5.2) Taking a chance on South Korea to get 2nd - which is 7/4 or the exacta with belguim pays a very nice 5-13) Russia (not to qualify) - 15-84) Algeriaover the weekend, I&#x27;ll finish this up and do Golden Boot, the winner, finalists and other miscellaneous bets

bk1374 · Answer

Great job.  Appreciate the insight.

mr_bollox · Answer

Thanks bk, (handshake)

mr_bollox · Answer

ok, time to wrap this up and give you the meat in the sandwich

Like most major international sporting tournaments, the cream rises to the top and there's only a handful of realistic contenders.

The betting is spot on here : I really can't see beyond Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Spain.

None of them have "easy" draws, I like Italy and France to cause problems for Spain and Germany respectively So thats 6 QF's and the other 2 QF's would be Colombia and Belgium.

Belgium are attractively priced at 6/5 to make the QFs and Colombia are 7/5.

And then I see two semis Brazil Germany and Argentina Spain.

I would favor Brazil in that matchup to make the final and Argentina Spain is a pick=em for me.

Looking at their squad, they way they dominated the Confederations cup, the massive advantage of playing at home in the world cup, Brazil are a solid pick at 3-1 to win the whole thing.

Money has come in for Argentina but theyre now too short at 4's, they have enough strikers to fill 3 teams but they lack players in defense with the quality of Alves, Maicon, Silva and Luiz.

Germany are 5/4 to make the semis and Spain are 6/4, they should land those prices but just come up short.

Expect some hometown decisions for Brazil, Fifa is a horribly corrupt organisation, South Korea got some really head scratching ref decisions going their way in 2002 and I'm sure Brazil will get lots of benefit of doubt decisions.

Sorry there's no 50-1 picks, they just dont cash in world cups.

I do have some tasty longshots for the Golden boot though which I'll post tomorrow and other props as well.

mr_bollox · Answer

Forgot to mention my picks for finalists :

Again no surprises but Brazil Argentina is a fair wager at 9-1 considering the advantage the South American teams will have with the tournament in their backyard and their ability to handle the conditions.

But Spain will be a hard team to pass so I may have a saver on Brazil Spain at 12-1 and if there are a couple of turnups, I like Argentina Spain at 40-1 and Brazil Italy at 40-1 as well.

France and Italy are both priced at about 11/4 to go out in the QF's and thats a better bet than backing them both at around even money to at least get to that stage.

And on that point Belgium to go out in the Qfs is 4-1,Colombia are 3-1 and Germany are 4-1 to go out in the semis, all food for thought.

KaiserWilhelm · Answer

Interesting thoughts bollox, I do agree with most of your picks. Brazil-Argentina at odds of 9 is really worth a shot I think.
I do have a bet on Germany to reach the semi's, but I placed it before Reus get injured. Bear in mind that Reus was the most important player to our team. Maybe he is not as known as all the Bayern players outside of Germany, but this guy is incredible.
Top scorer in the Bundesliga, voted best player in the league in a vote conducted among all players and coaches, and our biggest offensive threat.
The way I see it, we could get France in the quarterfinals - not sure we will make it without Reus.

BoL and a nice World Cup to you

mr_bollox · Answer

Thanks Kaiserand yes Reus is an important cog in Germany&#x27;s midfield but look at the options you have, Ozil, Kroos, Draxler, Muller could all fill his role and dont forget France just lost a key man in Ribery, I would still make Germany a strong fav to beat France.

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