Trump Tariffs

@Rush51

 Market performance over 1 year is completely irrelevant.   What does this have to do with Trump's self-inflicted damage to the Market... and potentially the economy if this goes on much longer. 

My point is this move down is nothing in the grand scheme of things.  Market is basically flat from year prior so there is much more room to go down.  Much.  

This is all Trump, and market participants did not see this level of rearrangement of the global (trade) order to this degree.... thus the extreme selloff.   You're being naive to suggest "some people"  saw the wrecking ball Trump would swing.. 

 "Self inflicted damage" yes, and they telegraphed it all of the way if you had been following Bessent's cookie crumbs.  Why I am being naive to suggest some people saw the wrecking ball coming?  Not just myself but others stated the same.  Before Bessent was even officially appointed he talked about a "grand economic reordering" similar to bretton-woods was coming in the next 4 years and "he wanted to be a part of it".  I posted over a month ago on Bessent and Trump's focus on getting the 10 year yield down as their "preferred gauge" opposite of Trump part 1 when his measure of success was the stock market.  Not this time, nope.  I am definitely not the one here being naive.  Both of them literally have told anyone listening that they wanted "short term pain for long term gain".  I believe my comment at the time I shared this was, "how much pain are we gonna take and for how long?".  Is the cure going to be worth the medicine is what we all should be wondering.  

Did the "market participants" not see this level of rearrangement of global trade to this degree??  Well of course not, market had priced in 10-20% tariffs prior to 4/2.  If you watched afterhours post 4pm Wednesday when he first announced the 10% tariffs the market responded +1.7% or so because it was seen as a positive and lower than the expected 20%.  Then he brought out his little big quant tariff board and it plunged to the depths of hades.  We know what happened next yesterday morning.  

[Quote: Originally Posted by Raiders22]@Rush51    I do not know how much reading you like to do.  Or if you are even interested.  But if you ever get time speed read his paper.  If you get a chance I would be interested I what you think.  It actually have no issue with him and agree with a lot of what he proposes.  But he and Trump have been friends forever.  Sometimes that might cloud a person’s assessment of the situation.  Maybe Trump is solidly behind his ideas no matter what.  He says he is. The media and even the business shows are rarely interviewing anyone but complete doomsayers.  There a couple of the known gurus that they let on, but the panel over talks them. But it will be interesting to see how it transpires as the pressure mounts.[/Quote]

Send me a link  

I see he was a big wig at Cantor Fitzgerald.   What I find interesting is that the Treasury Secretary,  VP Vance,  and this guy all have ties to VC, wealth management type of stuff.... and are all  big tariff proponents.   3 of a kind... 

I've been steadfast from the beginning on my beliefs for free(er) trade, but this Administration is trying to right many decades of what they perceive as " wrongs" in a few years.   

I'm always interested in hearing other people's perspectives.   If there's anything good that will come from this Tariffs  Failure,  it's that Vance's Presidential aspirations can be torpedoed.   He's hitched his wagon to Tariffs from day 1 .  Good riddance to him.... 

Short term pain,  for Long Term Pain.   That's the Tariffs plan. 

Trump is off the rails,  and could've just stopped w DOGE, the border fix, and extending the 2017 Tax Cuts...  that would have been a  successful 2 year stint, but his escapades into Tariffs is  misguided, and all anybody will remember...

I'm so happy to hear you pulled out your money in the market before all this.  After all, you predicted the depths of this if anyone was paying attention.  

Trumpy cares so much about bringing jobs back to the USA, yet this very same person has out sourced all his products being made in china and other countries. Yup magas those hats you all proudly wear and want to show off, are not made here  Heres a list of American companies that make caps right here in the USA, that trumpy could have had his hats made, but chose not to, so that he could use that cheap overseas labor.

https://www.jointophat.com/blog/top-cap-manufacturers-in-the-usa/

How can people be so damn gullible.  Trumpy = do as i say not as i do.

And you knew who you were then
girls were girls and men were men
Mister we could use a man like Herbert Hoover again

Trumps thinking and stubbornness are so similar to Hoover & Archie’s ! Reminds me of the thing that Herbert Hoover did when the market crashed - push harder for the Smoot Hawley tariffs.…….Mister we could use a man like Rex Tillerson again….Tillerson said he “could never understand” Trump’s disparagement of allies……

@Rush51

I noticed I wrote that in a hurry and did not fully explain what I meant.  It was Miran that actually authored the paper I was talking about.

But I think Bessent, Miran, Greer and Lutnick all have Trump’s ear and support most of what is in the paper and a large part of it is the stance on tariffs.  I think all five of them are on the same page with this.

That is why I say it will be interesting to see if they can stand united against whatever pushback comes from the media and other politicians.  Because I am not sure the folks in the USA will have the fortitude to weather this longterm, even if they understood the longterm goal — let alone agreed that the goal is worth it.

At any rate if you get time glance over it and see what you think:

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf

. New civil liberty alliance to file lawsuit alleging congress didn't authorize president to impose tariffs. Under International emergency powers act , only sanctions and not tariffs can be used.  Trade deficits aren't emergencies and have nothing to do with health of U.S. economy. During great depression, U.S. had a surplus. 

This is what the majority of companies will end up doing and the USA will be left in the dust due to a totally insane person in the white house who couldnt manage a paper route let alone a whole country.    Trumpy listening to make believe economic advisor ron varra aka peter navarro and his bonehead commerce secretary. 

Trumpy believing all companies are gonna come back to the USA and build factories is pure flat out comedy.  Trumpy should do stand up at comedy clubs.  The amount of years this would take for all this to happen if it could,  would be so many years down the road those factories and products would more then likely be obsolete by then.  Trumpys mind is shot, the guy is living in the twilight zone. Lets bring back factories that were here in the 60's and 70's to start back up, same way he wants to bring back coal.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/peter-schiff-says-nike-wont-180018691.html

I wonder if conspiracy nut case helped trumpy with his economic plan, since she had the power to get him to fire 2 people in charge at the NSA after her meeting with him. Trumpy confirmed he listened to her, lmfaoooooooooo.  Laura loomer dictating national security policy, now thats funny as hell but in the same breath scary as hell.  NSA which is charge of cyber security fired its leader because of the conspiracy nut.  We are doomed as a country if we cant get everybody together to stop this total clown show destruction.

To our resident magas, would love to hear why trumpy should be listening to conspiracy freak laura loomer about our countries national security, when shes not an elected official or holds any govt position.  Letting some nutcase off the street, getting our President to do what she asks him to do, isnt insanity?  How she was even able to get into the white house is mind boggling.

listening to conspiracy freak Laura Loomer!   This should say it all….I guess this why I can’t get a handle on the MAGA crowd ! How anyone can take this despicable internet nut job serious I don’t know yet Trump will fire a 4 or 3 star general who has spent a lifetime serving his country? Even Tucker Carlson was someone who stirred up fox’s further group of right wingers till he morally and intellectually wrote himself off with his Russia trip, I can see giving him the time of day…..But Laura Loomer? …

dont worry magas trumpy who went bankrupt 6 times, including bankrupting 2 casinos(we could get 3 chimps from the san diego zoo to run a casino) knows more about economics then all the economists in the world.  I was so wrong, trumphy truly is the smartest person that has ever walked on this planet.  Please forgive me trumpy and let me into the maga moron cult. 

while peoples accounts have been wiped out and will be looking at higher prices on everything they buy for a very long time, the republican senators passed the bill to give the 4.7 trillion tax cut to the rich and make the cuts permanent. The balls of these pricks is unreal and this is a slap in the face to every person in the country.  And in the house, they want bigger cuts to the govt.

When will the 99 percent wake up and take back the country from the 1 percent.

Yeah i know magas all those billionaires are hurting and they deserve these tax cuts. They got yacht and airplane payments to make.

Lets cut more programs that help regular folks and get rid of all those useless govt workers, so the rich can collect that money.

@Raiders22

 Thank you... I will take a look at it.. 

@Rush51

 I'm so happy to hear you pulled out your money in the market before all this.  After all, you predicted the depths of this if anyone was paying attention.

Top o the morning to you Rush.  Hoping the green today is making you feel a little better than last week.  I never predicted anything, only pointed out the obvious for anyone wanting to listen to Bessent.  I won't event get into the overvauled piece of the market where a correction was eventually inevitable, just no one saw it happening so fast is all.  Look I get it, you guys are used to listening to Trump run his mouth and not mean what he says.  This time looks to be a little different.  My 401k is probably not looking too different than yours, I don't know I haven't looked at it as I don't really care at the moment.  My time horizon I'd bet is different than yours so this thing could drop to covid lows (and below) and I won't lose any sleep knowing the next 10-20 years of growth potential.  Tremendous buying opportunity if that happens for anyone 40 and younger.  Best to you and your port sir 

@Raiders22

 https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf

Thanks for sharing 

Whew.... vicious bear market rally this am 

Did we just watch a partial bail out? Was marge on the phone and someone needed to be saved? Or was that just a quick pump to help add more exit liquidity?  

@Rush51

@kcblitzkrieg

commerce says robots will be getting the jobs from all those factories coming back to the USA.

So all those maga morons that think they will be getting those jobs, think again sunshine. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-official-admits-us-workers-203958355.html

Trumpy over the weekend made a statement basically saying hes trying to crash the markets. Thanks trumpy for admitting it, but anybody outside of your maga moron cult already know this.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/trump-is-losing-the-confidence-of-business-leaders-bill-ackman-says.html

As someone else who voted for Trump,  Bill Ackman is echoing what I've been thinking and saying here on Covers..

" this is 100% self- inflicted" 

" Trump is losing the confidence of the business leaders " ( i.e. uncertainty is the enemy of growth)

And finally,..

" this isn't what we voted for " 

@Rush51

 First thing, Ackman is a retired attention seeker, even when that crud channel used to trot him out 20 plus years ago I just did not find great value in listening to his comments, he always seemed to be looking for accolades and praise and his comments were light on content. Same goes for so many on that brain dead station like Cramerica and Sonders and Joe Kernan and any other prompt reading clown. There were a few long ago that I liked and it took me like ten years to figure out the people they trot out are salesman with an angle and a bias. 

That said of course Trump is a financial markets landmine, does he have any history of success on his own in these markets? No, he relies on leverage and bullying so this FED scheme of his will not go the way he wants and is pointless. The loss in market value is an exponential cost more than ANY theoretical gain from these misguided tariffs. The non-stop comedy of errors from Trump 2.0 is a function of his cabinet selections, a flawed foundation of approach via project 2025 and the lack of understanding that he cannot just punk everyone and get what he thinks he wants.

Trump 1.0 had the largest ZIRP in history, that cushioned so much of his awful first trip, now without ZIRP his throw downs and poor leadership approach has consequences and impacts.

Ackman has a habit of being a cry baby bitch