@thirdperson
Global warming increases risk of more wildfires in US and Canada despite billions spend on fire prevention.
How sure are you about this. It has a major assumption. What data do you use to back that up. Managing forests and clearing dead brush that would be fuel is a huge factor in decreasing fires. You can easily see this in the historical data. Even the later years show a far lesser correlation than you are implying between temperature and fires.
2012 — 55.3°F
2013 — 53.8°F
2014 — 54.0°F
2015 — 54.4°F
2016 — 54.9°F
2017 — 54.6°F
2018 — 54.4°F
2019 — 54.8°F
2020 — 54.4°F
2021 — 54.5°F
2022 — 54.9°F
2023 — 54.8°F
2024 — 55.5°F
2025 — 54.6°F
(These are annual average temperatures for the contiguous U.S.)
Number of fires:
2012 - 12695
2013 - 12102
2014 - 13175
2015 - 14751
2016 - 14971
2017 - 15673
2018 - 12956
2019 - 14309
2020 - 13996
2021 - 14774
2022 - 16018
2023 - 9591
2024 - 8867
2025 - 8186
Even with that very small sample size, you can run a broad comparative analysis to see this:
Temperature:
No obvious steady year-by-year upward trend.
The biggest feature is variability, not trend.
Fires:
Strong increase from 2012 to 2022
Sharp decline after 2022
No consistent relationship with temperature
Overall:
The warmest year (2024) did not have the most fire activity.
The highest fire year (2022) was not dramatically hotter than many others.
The last two years show a major decline despite temperatures remaining relatively high.







