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Presidential Election

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Captain
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Posted: #376
Babushka's top adviser has left the GOP:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/01/bushs-top-aide-quits-the-republican-party/#disqus_thread

She says that she'll vote for HRC if the FL election is close.
 
Captain
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Posted: #377
The VFW has torn into Trump:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/01/vfw-tears-into-trump/

He has no filter.  His first instinctive response almost always is anger, no matter how cruel.  He cannot be trusted with the nuclear codes.

Of course, HRC is a warmonger, so she shouldn't be trusted, either.

Liberals >>> vote Green
Conservatives >>> vote Libertarian.
 
Captain
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Posted: #378
HRC's convention bounce seems to be larger:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-bounce-appears-bigger-than-trumps/

Of course, antagonizing the VFW didn't help.
 
Captain
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Posted: #379
Republicans have chosen racism:

https://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/08/the-gop-has-made-its-peace-with-trumps-racism.html

Trump prevailed because he attracted the most racially resentful Republicans and those with the most disdain for Muslims.

The party of Lincoln is stinkin'.

Conservatives >>> vote Libertarian
 
Captain
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Posted: #380
Hatefest 2016 (aka the Republican convention) has bombed:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/01/the-gop-convention-bombs/

By 51% to 36%, Americans are less likely to vote Republican as a result of the convention.
 
Captain
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Posted: #381
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Hatefest 2016 (aka the Republican convention) has bombed:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/01/the-gop-convention-bombs/

By 51% to 36%, Americans are less likely to vote Republican as a result of the convention.
My mistake - that should be "less likely to vote for Trump."

https://electionbettingodds.com/congress.html

The Republicans still have a 93.5% chance of retaining control of the House.  There is a lot of gerrymandering as a result of GOP-controlled state legislatures, but unpopular HRC seems to have no coattails.

There are still 3+ months until Election Day.  Nothing is settled (except for the usual Red and Blue states).
 
Captain
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Posted: #382
now seeing Clinton -320. that didn't take too long.


 
Legend
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Posted: #383
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

now seeing Clinton -320. that didn't take too long.



More jumping ship from GOP Establishments to the HRC camp, so goes the odds, Skip.
 
Legend
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Posted: #384
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

now seeing Clinton -320. that didn't take too long.



Honestly, -320 seems cheap.

There is definitely one scenario where this election isnt even a contest because Trump self destructs, and it becomes cool and the right thing to do for Republicans to publicly denounce him.  That scenario seems to be growing and growing in likelihood.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #385
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


Honestly, -320 seems cheap.

There is definitely one scenario where this election isnt even a contest because Trump self destructs, and it becomes cool and the right thing to do for Republicans to publicly denounce him.  That scenario seems to be growing and growing in likelihood.



in one of scalabrines threads in the GD section, i just proposed the idea that trump bails out of this circus at some point.  i just don't see how he can or would want to keep this up for 3+ months at the rate this is going.  i wouldn't mind seeing some odds on that event, if they are out there somewhere. 
 
Captain
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Posted: #386
Georgia elector might withhold a Trump EC vote:

 “Donald Trump’s antics and asinine behavior has cemented my belief that he lacks the judgment, temperament and gravitas to lead this Nation. Throughout the process, he has hurled insults at our heroes and their families, denigrated the disabled and praised dictators. Forget political incorrectness, this is simply despicable demagoguery.”

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/03/georgia-elector-might-withhold-electoral-college-vote/

Anybody who is a "longtime GOP activist in Georgia" is probably very conservative.  He is rejecting Trump's character and temperament and so are many other Republicans.
 
Captain
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Posted: #387
HRC's convention bounce is twice as large as Trump's:

Since Clinton and Trump were roughly tied after the GOP convention, a 7-point lead for Clinton would mean she’d gotten about a 7-point bounce, double the size of Trump’s.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-is-clintons-lead-a-bounce-or-a-new-equilibrium/
 
Captain
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Posted: #388
Meg Whitman will raise money for HRC:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/02/meg-whitman-will-raise-money-for-clinton/

She was the Republican candidate in California's gubernatorial election in 2010.  She was defeated by incumbent Jerry Brown.

She is pro-choice and supports same-sex marriage and adoption rights.
 
Captain
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Posted: #389
Vin Weber calls Trump's candidacy as "a historic mistake."

Former Rep. Vin Weber (R-MN), a key early lieutenant in the Newt Gingrich revolution that transformed the U.S. House of Representatives and the Republican party, rejected the candidacy of Donald Trump as “a mistake of historic proportions” for his party, CNBC reports.

Said Weber: “I won’t vote for Trump. I can’t imagine I’d remain a Republican if he becomes president.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/03/former-top-gingrich-ally-calls-trump-nom-mistake-of-historic-proportions.html

 
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Posted: #390
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:



in one of scalabrines threads in the GD section, i just proposed the idea that trump bails out of this circus at some point.  i just don't see how he can or would want to keep this up for 3+ months at the rate this is going.  i wouldn't mind seeing some odds on that event, if they are out there somewhere. 

 
Captain
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Posted: #391
Trump allies plot an intervention:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/03/trump-allies-plot-an-intervention/

It is hard to imagine this as a success given Trump's monstrous ego and vicious temper.  He does NOT take criticism well, and he seems incapable of expressing contrition.
 
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Posted: #392
Quote Originally Posted by Inyourlife16:




i forgot you brought this up in your own thread first. 
 
Captain
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Posted: #393
Trump aide says Obama's policies probably led to Khan's death:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/02/trump-aide-claims-obama-policies-led-to-khans-death/

Khan died in 2004.  Trump hires idiots.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #394
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:



in one of scalabrines threads in the GD section, i just proposed the idea that trump bails out of this circus at some point.  i just don't see how he can or would want to keep this up for 3+ months at the rate this is going.  i wouldn't mind seeing some odds on that event, if they are out there somewhere. 

Been thinking same thing for a couple of months.

Trump seems like the little spoiled kid, who would take his ball and go home the moment things didn't go his way.
 
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Posted: #395
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:



i forgot you brought this up in your own thread first. 

Club, I am just pleased that others are beginning to see this as a viable event.
 
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Posted: #396
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:



in one of scalabrines threads in the GD section, i just proposed the idea that trump bails out of this circus at some point.  i just don't see how he can or would want to keep this up for 3+ months at the rate this is going.  i wouldn't mind seeing some odds on that event, if they are out there somewhere. 

The reason he wouldn't is because he is executing his role to perfection. He's doing precisely what he set out to do. Now call me crazy if you want, but that is A reason how and why he will continue like this through the finish line..
 
Captain
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Posted: #397
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


Honestly, -320 seems cheap.

There is definitely one scenario where this election isnt even a contest because Trump self destructs, and it becomes cool and the right thing to do for Republicans to publicly denounce him.  That scenario seems to be growing and growing in likelihood.



I completely agree. but the scenario seems to be playing out just the way you outlined it originally. cheap price after the GOP "convention" followed by a more realistic Clinton bounce. the man just can't get out of his own way. i'm grateful to him because it let me buy in at what I consider to be outrageously cheap prices. it was an uphill climb elector-wise to start with (as you pointed out). trump (or any republican candidate really) had a very narrow needle to thread. he is at present failing in a spectacular almost unprecedented way. now, who knows what happens. a trump victory is still possible (10%?) but a clinton rout seems much more likely unless something fundamental changes. but time for that is running out. he still has no ground game so it's unclear whether they can get the voters who profess a pro-trump position to go to the polls and actually vote. so the poll numbers  may be skewed towards trump.

i truly don't know if a mass exodus of party officials abandoning trump completely would matter to the true believers. but it could by a few points. (true believers being what they are.)

those who are suddenly hoping for trump to drop out don't really appreciate the ego of the political candidate in general (and trump specifically). "the only cure for presidential ambition is embalming fluid." my opinion only.


 
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Posted: #398
 
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


Honestly, -320 seems cheap.

There is definitely one scenario where this election isn't even a contest because Trump self destructs, and it becomes cool and the right thing to do for Republicans to publicly denounce him.  That scenario seems to be growing and growing in likelihood.

Anything between -300/-400 is a deal at this point, as I see the handicap, it would take something short of a miracle for Trump to capture the U.S. Presidency, I have never bet on politics, and have to resort to a 'local' LV book who has HRC (presently) @ -480  after the Republican Convention HRC was -360 (same LV book) and should have taken it then! well I have no alternative other than to wait; and pound this wager into the ground, when the time is right, sure would like to have access to -320 unfortunately 5dimes has limitations on this wager, and they're shrinking fast, to say the least...however; @ -480 their are no limits from the 'local'

Van,

hope everything works out in your favor btw, what book are you leaning towards? and what price are you getting as of today?  take care.......

 
Captain
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Posted: #399
A precipice awaits Trump on the current path:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/04/a-precipice-awaits-trump-on-current-path/

Trump does not seem like the kind of guy who seeks wise counsel; his monstrous ego makes it hard for him to listen to, let alone accept, good advice.

It seems very unlikely that Trump will make the needed changes to improve his chances.

 
 
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Posted: #400
Quote Originally Posted by zamigo6:


The reason he wouldn't is because he is executing his role to perfection. He's doing precisely what he set out to do. Now call me crazy if you want, but that is A reason how and why he will continue like this through the finish line..


i'm not sure what role he's executing anymore.  it doesn't seem like he wants to be president.  he may want to win, but that isn't likely.  i'm sure he doesn't want to lose and you have to believe the last thing he wants is to get smoked by hillary although they were friends before this. 


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