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DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 25, 2016 - 4:09 PM ET #351

According to 538, Trump's convention bounce is roughly average:

On the opposite side of the spectrum from the now-cast is our polls-plus forecast, which builds in a convention bounce adjustment. Because Trump’s convention bounce is broadly in line with its expectations, the polls-plus forecast hasn’t moved very much: It gives Trump a 42 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up only slightly from last week.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-gets-convention-bounce-drawing-polls-to-dead-heat/

With only a 58% chance of winning currently, HRC -200 has a negative expected value. Things will look different and be much more settled 30 days after the conventions.

1129ken

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 2674

Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 8:52 AM ET #352

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I still go back to the math.

Every time I hear that a national poll is close - it means $$ signs to me. National polls dont matter. State polls matter.

And the Nate Silver thing today was an even bigger bonus. Because nobody reads articles - everyone reads only headlines. Buried in his comments were that HRC is still a big favorite and the polls that matter (historically) have been the polls 30 days after the conventions.

Van----You're better at this than anyone on this site, including me, in part because you relentlessly apply your math and reason ( imagine that on a betting site ) rather than emotion and personal bias. That said, my gut ( admittedly the worst betting tool ) tells me this is an upside down year, a year in which logic and math might take a back seat. I realize that doesn't make a lot of sense, but I'm sitting this one out.

vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 60107

Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 10:22 AM ET #353

Quote Originally Posted by 1129ken:

Van----You're better at this than anyone on this site, including me, in part because you relentlessly apply your math and reason ( imagine that on a betting site ) rather than emotion and personal bias. That said, my gut ( admittedly the worst betting tool ) tells me this is an upside down year, a year in which logic and math might take a back seat. I realize that doesn't make a lot of sense, but I'm sitting this one out.

Totally understand.

There is still a crystal ball element to all of this. Don't underestimate your gut feel.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 2:59 PM ET #354

Tracker shows no bounce for Trump:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/26/tracker-shows-no-bounce-for-trump/

That means that the recent narrowing of the polls should be credited to Comey's conclusions and the latest terrorist incidents, and won't be as likely to fade as any convention bounce almost always does.

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 3:11 PM ET #355

David Duke's remarks have put Trump's camp on the defensive:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/27/us/politics/david-duke-donald-trump.html?_r=0

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 3:40 PM ET #356

The Democratic convention has gotten higher ratings so far:

https://variety.com/2016/tv/news/democratic-national-convention-ratings-night-one-bigger-rnc-1201823316/

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 3:47 PM ET #357

40% of independents said Trump's speech was poor or terrible:

Trump’s convention speech, which was received well by Republicans watching the event, did not sit as well with Independents. Just 30 percent of Independents who watched the speech said it was excellent or good, 29 percent said it was “just okay” and a 40 percent plurality said it was poor or terrible.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/07/26/on-day-one-democrats-ruthlessly-exposed-a-core-trump-weakness/

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 3:48 PM ET #358

Trump is failing at political math:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/26/trump-is-failing-at-political-math/

He is failing to build a winning coalition while alienating blocs of voters that will damage to GOP's future prospects.

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 3:50 PM ET #359

Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Trump is failing at political math:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/26/trump-is-failing-at-political-math/

He is failing to build a winning coalition while alienating blocs of voters that will damage to GOP's future prospects.

S/B "damage the GOP's"

Skipster

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 6424

Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 7:55 PM ET #360

Filled out the other half of my position at -220.

5 units at -160

5 units at -220

Europa

Legend

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 42786

Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 10:40 PM ET #361

Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

Filled out the other half of my position at -220.

5 units at -160

5 units at -220

Good luck, Skip!

Skipster

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 6424

Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 8:41 AM ET #362

Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

Good luck, Skip!

thanks. feel very good about this. one thing, yes the polls got closer. but keep in mind that trump has no campaign (at least not in the traditional sense). he has no field offices in key states. no get out the vote apparatus. So, sure. People can say they'll vote for him, but getting them off their fools to actually vote in those numbers requires a machine. He's an amateur. The Clintons have been playing this game a long time. Their voters will be driven to the polls on election day if necessary.

I expect we'll see a significant Clinton bounce next week after the convention (again one run by pros as opposed to the Trump fiasco). These numbers, if you think (as I do) that Clinton SHOULD win handily (and of course, garbage can happen and I don't say this is a slam dunk), these numbers are as good as they're going to get for Clinton bettors. If you have a belief that Trump will pull this out, wait for much better numbers. They're coming soon.

Europa

Legend

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 42786

Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 10:50 AM ET #363

Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

thanks. feel very good about this. one thing, yes the polls got closer. but keep in mind that trump has no campaign (at least not in the traditional sense). he has no field offices in key states. no get out the vote apparatus. So, sure. People can say they'll vote for him, but getting them off their fools to actually vote in those numbers requires a machine. He's an amateur. The Clintons have been playing this game a long time. Their voters will be driven to the polls on election day if necessary.

I expect we'll see a significant Clinton bounce next week after the convention (again one run by pros as opposed to the Trump fiasco). These numbers, if you think (as I do) that Clinton SHOULD win handily (and of course, garbage can happen and I don't say this is a slam dunk), these numbers are as good as they're going to get for Clinton bettors. If you have a belief that Trump will pull this out, wait for much better numbers. They're coming soon.

Mitt Romney and John McCain also took the lead in the polls right after RNC in 2008 and 2014, respectively, but Barack Obama won both general contests.

Here is a pretty good article on this subject,

"...the person in the lead in August will have a really good chance of winning."--Jonathan Ladd, Georgetown professor

"Don’t check the polls until Labor Day."--Kathy Frankovic, former CBS polling director and analyst at YouGov

https://www.vox.com/2016/7/25/12270288/donald-trump-polls-beat-clinton

Europa

Legend

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 42786

Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 10:51 AM ET #364

*typo 2014-->2012

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 28, 2016 - 4:46 PM ET #365

Despite polls which are currently close and just measure voters latest opinions, 270towin (updated 2016-07-28) still shows HRC with a very strong electoral vote lead.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/clinton-trump-electoral-map

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 29, 2016 - 8:05 PM ET #366

The GOP convention was a disaster:

"The self-reported net impact of the GOP convention was also negative. Overall, 51% of Americans say the convention made them less likely to vote for Trump, while 36% said it made them more likely to vote for him. This is the highest "less likely to vote" percentage for a candidate in the 15 times Gallup has asked this question after a convention. The previous "less likely" high was 38% after both conventions in 2012, and after the GOP conventions in 2004 and 2008."

[Emphasis mine]

https://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/194000/first-time-trump-image-par-clinton.aspx

Of course we should wait for polls on the Democratic convention, and give time for the bounce to fade. Let's see how things look in mid-August.

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 29, 2016 - 8:08 PM ET #367

Independents favor a path to citizenship and oppose building a wall.

https://www.gallup.com/poll/193817/republicans-favor-path-citizenship-wall.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

But the majority of independents are still supporting Trump.

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 29, 2016 - 8:31 PM ET #368

More people watched Trump's speech than HRC's:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/29/more-watched-trumps-speech-than-clintons/

Since the whole GOP convention was so poorly rated, that is not good news.

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 29, 2016 - 8:34 PM ET #369

Trump says he has run a "flawless campaign":

https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/29/trump-says-hes-run-a-flawless-campaign/#disqus_thread

His delusional ego has little grasp of reality.

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 30, 2016 - 1:55 PM ET #370

Competing electoral vote maps:

https://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

https://www.270towin.com/

Some differences are stark: EP gives HRC a 95% chance of carrying PA while 270 says it's a tossup.

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6497

Posted: Jul. 30, 2016 - 7:02 PM ET #371

Trump has few paths to victory:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/30/trump-has-few-paths-to-victory/

No Republican has carried PA in nearly three decades.

SarasotaSlim

Covers Rehab

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 35543

Posted: Jul. 30, 2016 - 9:47 PM ET #372

Congratulations...

DogbiteWilliams, You have now tied Fried Shrimps record of 7 back to back post without a reply..

thirdperson

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2005

Posts: 9499

Posted: Jul. 31, 2016 - 11:00 AM ET #373

According to predictwise, highest support for Trump was 42% from gambling markets in December 2015. Whereas highest support for Clinton was 77% in June 2016. Apparent that Clinton has always been high in support while Trump's support may have already peaked?