Posted:
#26
What's your thoughts on the SB 58?
SB LVIII
to us mah man @Wizerguy
Posted:
#33
SB LVIII > Read andermac99 write on this game.
I've been hearing alot of my fellow cappers in my area say that this is not the type of game you should be betting big on. I have to respectfully disagree with them. This is exactly the type of game, at least for me, that you bet big on, only because I have a handicapping dynamic within this matchup that I haven't seen in a Super Bowl in a very long time.
When I crunch numbers on a game I will always use away stats for the road team and home stats for the home team. This why I like to wait until November in order for my methods to be more predictable because at that point and time of the season, teams have played an equal amount of home and away games. In this match-up we have two good teams playing an away game so naturally I have to use both teams away game numbers to try and predict the winner. However once the human factor comes into play ie turnovers, bad calls, injuries, we really need some real strong edges on our side to overcome some of these intangible.. so here we go SB LVIII.
This may very well be another close game like most of these Super Bowls have been. However, there's one team that owns the better defense with very strong recent form numbers vs superior power rated teams.
( more)
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
Posted:
#35
Coach Andy Reid
31-7 SU and 23-15 ATS in games in which his team has an extra week of rest and 5-0 SUATS as a dog of fewer than 5 pts. He is also 25-14 SU and 26-12-1 ATS vs NFC West opponents including 3-0 SUATS vs Kyle Shanahan's 49ers. Andy Reid has also been solid as an underdog in games in which his team is coming of consecutive SUATS wins at 21-3-1 ATS including 6-0 in games in which his team sports a.700 or greater win percentage
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
Posted:
#37
Patrick Mahomes
Has won six straight playoff starts and hasn't turned the ball over or been sacked in his last four playoff games. He's the only QB in NFL playoff history without a turnover or sack in four straight playoff games. Mahomes is also 10-4 SU and 13-1 ATS as a dog in his NFL career.
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
Posted:
#38
Lets be clear, this an away game for both clubs on basically a neutral field so we must use both teams away game pure points for ( PPF) and pure points against (PPA) vs their road opponents power ratings at the time of the game. We like to use 4 away games and then tighten it up with the more recent form 3 games away for each club. Pure points is handicapping method I use to remove the noise from the final score. Int's and fumbles returned for TD / PR for TD. etc so the score I have reflected next to KC's opponents are the true / raw / pure scores: Offensively PPF and Defensively PPA
Kansas City last 4 road games > vs Balt 14-5 with a 29.5 power rating ( AFC Champ)/ Buffalo 12-7 with a 26 power rating( AFC Divisional) N.Eng 4-13 w/ a 16.5 Power rating wk 15 / and Gbay 10-9 w/ a 20 power rating wk 13
be back later
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
Posted:
#40
We need to get KC's True Point Differential( TPD) to come up with an estimated win margin vs KC's AOPR ( caliber of competition) so what we need to do is to take KC's pure points offense 90 and subtract it from their pure points defense 72 which is 18,
We then will add 3 points for each away game because KC was at a 3pt disadvantage in each game ( not home) 18+12 =30 divided by the 4 away games is 7.5. Thats KC's win Margin vs their AOPR of 23.5
KC is beating their AOPR 23.5 by 7.5 pure points per game which gives KC a 30.5 road rating entering this game (SB LVIII)
Keep in mind of KC's AOPR ( caliber of Competition) 23.5 for when we get to Sf's pure point road stats
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
Posted:
#41
The line on the game is a number, so we need to calculate/ handicap teams numbers in order to come with our own line or estimate on the numerical difference between teams that are matched up against each other and their performance vs each teams opponent and the quality of that opponent over a given ( most recent) time. ( Recent form)
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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