Quote Originally Posted by Humchucker:
While I don't necessarily think NE is going to walk all over MIA this week I do agree mostly with the OP Relax_Dude.
Some things to consider:
The Patriots are putting up absurd numbers on a per game basis.
28, 40, 51, 30, 34, and 30 in their first 6 games.
If you ignore the games played against NE, the PPG allowed by the teams they have played so far respectively are:
17.2 for PIT, 23.3 for BUF, 26 for JAC, 25.6 for DAL, 23.3 for IND, and 15 for NYJ
That means NE scored 10.8 points more against PIT than the average of the scores against PIT in the other 6 games PIT has played. If we calculate the other teams as well it looks like this:
16.7 more than BUF average allowed score
25 more than JAC
4.4 more than DAL
10.7 more than IND
and 15 more than NYJ
Averaged out this 13.7 points represents how many more points NE scores on teams than other teams averaged out do.
In fact only once this year has a team posted a higher score against a common opponent than NE (DAL v ATL where ATL put up 39 points while NE 'only' put up 30). In every other case the team that NE played gave up more points to NE than they had against any other team. I don't see that as being a fluke. Other teams had 34 opportunities to put up more points against an opponent than NE did, and only ONCE did it happen.
Everyone seemed to be hyping the jets defense saying it was the first real challenge NE was facing and what did NE do? Threw 54 times and ran it 9 times and put up 15 points more than the Jets had been giving up on average going into that game. I don't know the exact number but something like 10 dropped passes for NE? Brady with 0 Interceptions and completed 63% of his passes even with the 10 drops and no running game to make the Jets stay honest on defense. If one of the better defenses in the league KNOWS they aren't running the ball and still can't stop them from putting up 30 points (2x the ppg allowed by the Jets through their first 5 games) what is it going to take for a team to slow them down?
Now onto the actual NE v MIA game
MIA has beaten WAS, TEN, and HOU and has been beaten by JAC, BUF, and NYJ. To be fair, they destroyed TEN and HOU and have looked really strong the last 2 weeks, but is that enough to make you pick them this week against NE? If this game was being played 2 weeks ago, what would the line have opened at? NE-10 or more I would imagine and rightfully so. NE the last 2 weeks has looked less than unstoppable at times (despite winning against 2 good teams), and MIA gouged 2 teams that quite frankly barely put up a fight. In the public's eye, MIA is on a tear and NE is coming back to earth and having to grind out wins, making the gap between the two teams appear smaller than it really is. In my eyes these are two different classes of teams and you are perhaps overthinking this game if you are considering MIA. MIA has given up 22.8 points per game, and we've seen earlier that NE scores on average 13.7 points MORE than their opponents ppg against. I'm not saying NE is for sure putting up 36+ points against MIA, but I would say tread cautiously if you are considering putting money on MIA. Again, NE is going to score points as they have proven week after week, the question will be can MIA keep up? I see this as a bet NE or stay away game, but that's just my opinion. I don't love that NE has to win by more than a score as they have shown they will allow back door covers, but I would hate to be counting on that if I had money on MIA and they were down big late. If anything I will probably tease this line down to NE-2 or just put money on NE on ML since those are in my eyes the 'safe' bets. Cheers and good luck this week to anyone picking sides on this game.
Humchuker, this was a great write up with some really well thought out points. You actually have a great logical argument.
If you haven't already, I would go check out the thread titled "Patriots/Miami (Easiest Money Of The Season)
Scroll down and read the post that Suuma posted.
He touches on how the Jets defense had injuries and were banged up. They gave up 14 in the 4th but they had some 2nd stringers in there.
The PPG is a great stat but you also have to look at who those teams played. It doesn't tell the entire story.
For instance, Jets Schedule has been, CLE/IND/PHI/MIA/WASH
Prior to the New England game. Not exactly powerhouse offenses, and against the Jets D I would expect a low PPG.
So Patriots scoring 13 points more than those teams were able to score on the Jets defense really doesn't surprise me, and it doesn't really say much except that the Patriots are about 2 touchdowns better on offense than those teams. But we all knew that already.
The rookie O-line of Pats vs Mia front 7 spells trouble.
We have to ask ourselves, do we think Brady will be sacked just one time? I think we would all agree that he may be sacked way more than that.
So if we all think they may get to the QB even just once, then we have to ask ourselves what the possibility is of Brady fumbling the ball when getting sacked, which happens all too often to QBs.
And if we ask ourselves that, and figure at worst maybe 3 points off a turnover like that, then that -7.5 looks a little less attractive.
But let's go a little further.
The margin of error for a team that has to cover -7.5 is so small that it's basically non-existent.
Colts got a pick six off a flukey Edelman bobble because he hurt his hand and couldn't catch the ball. End up covering -7.5
Jets actually had a lead 4 point lead with 12:50 left in the 4th but couldn't hang on. Ultimately they cover though.
on Monday Night Football the Cardinals started as -7.5 vs Ravens and ended up barely covering the -7.5 because there was a blocked punt at the end of the game and Ravens got the ball at the 4 yard line. Scored a TD and 2pt conversion. Cardinals win by 8.
So with this -7.5 line I find myself asking these questions.
Will anything flukey happen? Who knows...
Will a sack happen? Probably...
Can we guarantee that the 4.5 yards per rush on defense the Patriots are giving up will be fixed by thursday? Ehhhh....
Can we trust the Pats D? Ehhhhhhhh... No.
Can we guarantee we won't get screwed in garbage time? Nope.
So basically, New England has to play perfect, and on top of that nothing flukey can happen... And their defense needs to get better overnight... Not exactly a confidence builder.
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