The biggest look-ahead spot in 2015 ? The Chicago Bears became an interesting option in week one

Summa, thanks for your extensive reply. I am not interested in winning any arguments, only arriving at a more objective view of this game. Summa seems to be a strong Jets fan so maybe a different perspective will be useful. Betting too much on one's favorite team (as well as failing to bet against one's favorite team) can be a huge problem bound up with cognitive illusions and overconfidence … for anyone who is interested I can recommend Thinking, Fast and Slow which has plenty that applies to the NFL. I disregard all opinion and speculation except possibly those of NFL coaches and GMs.

Offense
> Josh McCown should be a significantly better QB than Ryan Fitzpatrick? I don’t think so. 
Well Summa, you simply voiced your opinion without any justification. Here's support for my statement: When free agency started the top QBs available were McCown, RF, Cassell and Hoyer. McCown was coveted by the Browns, by Rex at Buffalo and by the Bears’ new coaches. Cleveland won the bidding war. No one was clamoring for RF! I have to accept the actions of Pettine, Rex and the Bears' coaches which clearly say that they thought McCown was the best available. Pettine said the Browns coaches watched tape of every McCown play the past two years before offering him a nice contract — that’s a lot better basis for comparing McCown and RF than your opinion. You and other Jets' fans can spin things any way you like, but the fact is that the Jets' coaches had Geno as their starter and RF as the backup, so one must conclude that RF gives the Jets less of a chance to win than would Geno. To write that McCown is not significantly better than the Jets backup QB is without any basis.

> Do the Browns have a running game? I don’t think so. Going against one of the best run defenses in the league won’t help them.
 Again, mere opinion. With SRich out what is your basis for saying the Jets have one of the best run defenses? The Browns ran well last year until Mack got hurt and have an excellent OLine. With SRich out L. Williams will probably be forced to play more than the Jets would like; Williams is a rookie who is still learning and can be expected to make mistakes in his first game, playing lots of snaps against the Browns seasoned OLine (four greens and a blue at PFF).  Do the Jets have six capable guys on the DLine? Their starters may wear down in the heat playing lots of snaps.

> Do you think any DC is afraid of this unit? 
I think any DC will be more worried about the Browns' offense than he will be worried about the Jets' offense! Cleveland's offense is significantly improved at QB, WR and RB (if Duke Johnson is available) from last year, when they scored 27+ ppg until Mack went down. And now they have WR Terrelle Pryor, a former NFL QB who at 6’4, 223 and running a 4.34 is a tough cover. He can run the read option at QB and is a threat on end-arounds to run or throw. I don't see anyone comparable to Pryor on the Jets.

I think you greatly undervalue the Cleveland WRs and overvalue what the Jets have. Hartline and Bowe are solid vets; Hartline was a good receiver for Miami until last season when throwing long to Mike Wallace didn't work. The Dolphins decided to throw shorter passes to Wallace, balls that previously were thrown to Hartline. This should not reflect badly on Brian. Hawkins and Gabriel had good years in 2014; Travis Benjamin has looked great in his second year back after an ACL injury in 2013 (4.25 speed); and I've already mentioned Pryor.  This group is better than what the Jets have, especially since D. Smith is out. Marshall was obtained for a fifth-round draft pick and I believe the Jets also received a seventh-round pick. This shows the low value that the league placed on BM, hardly what a #1 wideout would bring. The Jets' offense will not scare the Cleveland defense or any DC. They have no home run threats, no trick play threats, an average OLine and are starting a backup QB. 

Defense
> You are talking about Danny Shelton who got doubled and tripled against a Redskins o-line that looked poorly so far. In week one he will line up against Nick Mangold, a six-time Pro Bowl center, one of the best in the league and James Carpenter and Willie Colon next to him.  How about that? This is completely different caliber compared to the Skins’ o-line.

The Browns have a very deep DLine with eight capable players. Colon and Carpenter are journeymen; Seattle, with its unsettled OLine, chose to let Carpenter walk as far as I know. Only Mangold rates better than average from PFF (which isn't infallible of course, but at least their ratings aren't just opinion and appear to be unbiased).

> “Losing SRich cancels out most or all of the gain with Revis” – are you serious ?? How can the absence of a d-liner, that got replaced by the best overall player in the draft by the way, cancel the gain Revis brings to this defense??? 

No way will Williams play like SRich in game one! Also, their DLine rotational depth will be hurt. This could easily be important in week one with temperatures predicted to be in the 80s, as rotating DLinemen will be essential or they will tire. Gaining a DB probowler and losing a DLine probowler has to be close to a wash. You appear to underestimate the importance of a probowl DLineman. One can make an argument that SRich is MORE important than Revis, because the offense can ignore Revis by throwing elsewhere or run a speed guy deep to take Revis out of the play and throw underneath, whereas it is more difficult to avoid a DLineman, especially with probowler Wilkerson on the other side and a good NT. Williams was drafted sixth so he is the presumptive sixth best player in the draft regardless of media hype. Your opinion is contradicted by the votes of five GMs.

... continued

> You compare these two defenses via PPG from 2014 – makes no sense. 

If you are going to ignore last season, which is nuts, we haven't much to discuss. Teams usually don’t change drastically from one year to the next unless a Bill Parcells arrives or an elite QB is acquired (Luck, RGIII in his first year, PM). Of course the Jets' D has improved, but the question is how much has it improved relative to the league, since most teams have improved. Your analysis of the Jets' D was mostly speculation about how Revis will impact Cro and Skrine, and about the safeties, neither of whom are exceptional. The only way to evaluate teams heading into week one is to start with their 2014 record and key stats; then factor in the changes from free agency, the draft, players lost, injuries and suspensions as well as coaching changes. You want to ignore the Jets' poor record last season – then you have to ignore the records of the other teams which is nonsense. [In another thread I believe you wrote that the Jets will contend for the playoffs and the Browns will draft first in 2016. This implies an increase of five wins or more for the Jets and a decrease of five wins or more for the Browns. Each of these is very unlikely: from 2013 to 2014 only two teams changed by five or more.]

The Jets significantly improved their biggest weakness, the secondary. The Browns did the same with their biggest weakness, the DLine. These are normal changes but do not allow ignoring last season.
 
> This secondary is nowhere near the unit of 2014 which got burned heavily, so talking about their PPG number doesn’t make any sense ... their defensive PPG was 22.8. Pick sixes don’t count.
The new secondary will take some time to jell. You wrote that Cro didn't play well the past two years, so speculating that he will suddenly play well just because Revis will guard the top receiver is just that – speculation. The Jets #4 CB should see significant playing time in passing situations, but their #4 guy doesn't seem to be very good in view of the injuries. The Browns have fairly competent #4 and #5 CBs in Desir and Justin Gilbert. And with Richardson out, the Jets' DLine for week one is significantly weaker than last year's unit.

Saying that “pick-sixes don't count” was the worst statement you made … points are given up by the TEAM. Your saying that the Jets' DEFENSE didn't give up pick-sixes seems to be a distinction without a difference: the important number is the points allowed by the team. Every team allows points not directly attributable to the defense but this is irrelevant. The offense, defense and special teams all affect one another as you know. I don't see any value in going back and from each team's points allowed, subtracting all pick sixes and fumbles returned for points as well as kicks returned the distance, but maybe you do.

> Now it comes to my favorite statement of your post: “The Browns averaged a shade over 27 ppg in their first five games last year with Mack at center, versus good teams (Pit twice, Bal, Saints, Titans) never scoring less than 22, and their offense is better this year”.
1.       They scored 21 points against the Ravens.
Pointing out that Cleveland only scored 21 v. Baltimore when I said (from memory) it was 22, was an inconsequential error and IMHO was better left unsaid. 
2.       Pittsburgh twice, NO and Titans had all three a BOTTOM-TEN defense last season, especially against the pass. So there is nothing special about that stretch.
3.       The only defense that can be accounted “good” was the Ravens who were missing 3 starters of their secondary.

You have only strengthened my argument! The Jets allowed 401 points last year if my arithmetic is accurate, #24 in the league. Pit was #21, Tennessee #29, the Saints #28 and the Ravens #6. All but one of the games I cited were against teams ranked very close to the Jets (21, 21, 28 and 29 with the Jets sandwiched in between at 24). So four of those five games were against teams that ranked close to the Jets in points allowed and my comparison is quite apt. I will add that the Browns ranked #9, giving up 337 points. On offense Cleveland scored 299 points (#27); the Jets scored 283 (#28).

Coaches

You have neglected the difficulty of playing in a defense for the first time in a regular season game. This is very important! I think you can expect some hiccups from the Jets' D for a few games. Even if the Jets' personnel is as good as you think, it may take awhile for all 12 starters(including the nickel) to jell and play as Bowles and the DC dictate. [Check the first and second half scores of last year's Browns' week one game and the game at the Titans. Same personnel in both halves but the mental mistakes were corrected at halftime. Cleveland had a new HC and new DC. Expect something similar with the Jets.] The Browns' defensive players are in their second season with all the same D coaches, a huge advantage.

> ... Bowles will send a lot of blitzes and when the Browns’ QBs have time on a few plays, they are trying to throw in very tight windows.

This is simply idle speculation, Summa. I know Bowles blitzed a great deal with the Cards, but he has different personnel now and you don't know what Bowles and his DC will do. The Jets D is gonna be a step slow and a few steps off in game one under its new HC and DC, regardless of the abilities of the individual players.

Pettine's knowledge of the strengths and weaknesses of Revis, Cro, Skrine and maybe some others on the Jets D is another important factor. He was the Jets' DC for several years and as recently as 2012.

Matchups

> You didn’t even cap ANY matchups. 

I consider general matchups such as team offense against opponent's defense and vice-versa, or if one team has a good running attack and the opponent has a porous run defense – that goes without saying. I have done quite well the past few years without capping detailed or individual matchups. Focusing on matchups and lots of stats such as those on the Covers game threads has not worked for me or for a savvy friend; we stopped using these in our first year. Trying to analyze matchups takes too much time, involves too much guesswork, the sample size is often too small, and conclusions are too subjective.
With as many as 64 choices each week (sides and O/U) plus money management, there is a lot to do.

... continued

>Comparing the same units on both sides has nothing to do with capping a matchup on the field.

Comparing the same units is very valuable because if one team is superior in most areas, it is easy to conclude which team should win. I see the Browns as superior in most areas and the Jets superior only at RB. PFF after the draft and FA gave the Jets four greens on offense, and on defense a blue and two greens (not counting Richardson as he won't be playing week one and removing Babin who has been cut). The Browns got a blue and five greens on offense and eight greens on defense. Rookies aren't graded. PFF is a respected unbiased source. PFF's grades are another support for my contention that the Browns are the better team. And since those evals the Jets have been hurt by injuries and suspensions much more than the Browns.

With all the Browns advantages that I have pointed out there is no need to cap matchups, even if that were possible.

The Line

The Jets are a “public team” so to speak with a huge fan base in NY/NJ and the lines are often slanted to the Jets' detriment. One of many examples last season was the 1-6 Jets' week eight game at home v. the 4-3 Bills where the closing line was Jets – 3.

Conclusion: I believe the case is strong for taking the Browns and weak for taking the Jets.