Posted:
#101
Quote Originally Posted by simple3:
thanks.....
Centrebet.com
The biggest look-ahead spot in 2015 ? The Chicago Bears became an interesting option in week one
Posted:
#102
Quote Originally Posted by blackdog9:
Suuma,
Just wanted to say that your threads/posts are always a good read.
Re the OAK-CIN game, Hue Jackson (Bengals, OC) and Mark Davis didn't exactly part on good terms. Good chance that Hue is looking forward to this game.
Suuma,
Just wanted to say that your threads/posts are always a good read.
Re the OAK-CIN game, Hue Jackson (Bengals, OC) and Mark Davis didn't exactly part on good terms. Good chance that Hue is looking forward to this game.
Good luck this season.
Thanks for the evidence
Posted:
#103
Quote Originally Posted by nygjmap:
As always SummaI greatly appreciate and value your write-ups!
Ill be laying off this game all together, I dont like playing these nasty divisional games unless I'm on the dog. Pack is just too scary but if I HAD to pick it'd be Bears +7 no doubt.
As always SummaI greatly appreciate and value your write-ups!
Ill be laying off this game all together, I dont like playing these nasty divisional games unless I'm on the dog. Pack is just too scary but if I HAD to pick it'd be Bears +7 no doubt.
Hope to get a clean overview on the injury situation soon. Everything is "day-to-day".
Posted:
#105
What a shock that the guy who chose 'LETGOPACK' for his username (presumably he's meant Let's Go Pack, but no matter...) is arguing for GB. I'll never understand why homers try to get involved in betting discussions. Suuma, you have a series of well-reasoned and thoughtful arguments. I'm not sure if I'll have a play on this game yet, but props to you for your efforts. 
Posted:
#106
Wow. Randall Cobb hurt too... He might be out for week 1
Not sure why the books haven't adjusted or taken the game off yet. Seems they don't think highly of the Bears.. I mean I wouldn't with the way they played today.. might be premature to place a bet early but got the Bears now at +6.5.
Division rivalry. The new look Bears will play scrappy for John Fox and also their best chance to get a win against the wounded Packers
Sip on that plus money honey!
Posted:
#108
Quote Originally Posted by erjaq:
What a shock that the guy who chose 'LETGOPACK' for his username (presumably he's meant Let's Go Pack, but no matter...) is arguing for GB. I'll never understand why homers try to get involved in betting discussions. Suuma, you have a series of well-reasoned and thoughtful arguments. I'm not sure if I'll have a play on this game yet, but props to you for your efforts.
What a shock that the guy who chose 'LETGOPACK' for his username (presumably he's meant Let's Go Pack, but no matter...) is arguing for GB. I'll never understand why homers try to get involved in betting discussions. Suuma, you have a series of well-reasoned and thoughtful arguments. I'm not sure if I'll have a play on this game yet, but props to you for your efforts.
Yeah, I mean why would you want to take advice from a Packers fan who also lives in Chicago?? He obviously knows nothing about either team 
You obviously dont follow the boards often and follow my picks either
Posted:
#113
Quote Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pat-kirwan/25286313/nfl-preseason-power-rankings-packers-on-top-but-seahawks-team-to-beat
Atleast the Bears are only 5th worst in the league 
With all due respect, why would you listen to the power ranking of any "NFL Insider" ?
His reasoning for placing the Bengals at #9: "Until they win a game in the playoffs I can't move them up much higher than ninth"
Come on. This power ranking is made for the 2015 season and he can't move the Bengals up because they didn't win a playoff game in RECENT years? This is a very stupid reasoning and doesn't have to do anything with knowledge.
Dolphins outside the top-10? Cardinals inside the top-10 and 10 ranks ahead of the Rams who smacked them last season before their QBs turned wild? Saints not even in the top-15?
Sorry LETGO, but I can't take this one serious.
Posted:
#114
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
With all due respect, why would you listen to the power ranking of any "NFL Insider" ?
His reasoning for placing the Bengals at #9: "Until they win a game in the playoffs I can't move them up much higher than ninth"
Come on. This power ranking is made for the 2015 season and he can't move the Bengals up because they didn't win a playoff game in RECENT years? This is a very stupid reasoning and doesn't have to do anything with knowledge.
Dolphins outside the top-10? Cardinals inside the top-10 and 10 ranks ahead of the Rams who smacked them last season before their QBs turned wild? Saints not even in the top-15?
Sorry LETGO, but I can't take this one serious.
With all due respect, why would you listen to the power ranking of any "NFL Insider" ?
His reasoning for placing the Bengals at #9: "Until they win a game in the playoffs I can't move them up much higher than ninth"
Come on. This power ranking is made for the 2015 season and he can't move the Bengals up because they didn't win a playoff game in RECENT years? This is a very stupid reasoning and doesn't have to do anything with knowledge.
Dolphins outside the top-10? Cardinals inside the top-10 and 10 ranks ahead of the Rams who smacked them last season before their QBs turned wild? Saints not even in the top-15?
Sorry LETGO, but I can't take this one serious.
I know, Im just keeping the thread/chat going...jut trying to occupy the time until Opening Weekend!
But, the Bears are going to be bad, very bad this year! Even their own city and fans have no hope for them!
Just got my tickets in the mail for the 13th Cant wait!!!!
Posted:
#117
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
A summary of my arguments in this thread:
1. Over the last two regular seasons, the Packers are 12-12 on the road with Aaron Rodgers as their QB. While they also lost a few close ones, they also won a few close ones. Of those 12 wins, 5 have been by less than six points. So they have won by more than 6 points in 7 out of 24 road games in three years.
2. The Bears have a whole new coaching staff with a lot of new schemes on offense and defense. They were terrible last season, but they are still an NFL team. Jay Cutler has been a bust, but he also had good games in his career. He has an average o-line with a coach that worked together with Peyton Manning for three years. They turned an average o-line into one of the best along with two (?) Pro Bowlers. The Bears will likely miss Kevin White, but they still have Alshon Jeffery, a stud. His injury status should be followed closely, but it looks as he will play in week one. They have a very good slot receiver in Eddie Royal, a good TE and one of the best catching RBs in Matt Forte. If their new OC Adam Gase can surprise us all, it's in week one. Gase had one heck of a playbook for Peyton Manning. Their DC, Vic Fangio, turned the 16th-best scoring defense into the 2nd-best within one year at San Francisco and he had only two additions via the draft when I am right. He also was 4-0 against the Packers with the Niners.
3. The Packers have one of the biggest revenge games on deck in week two, hosting the Seahawks on SNF at Lambeau. The Seahawks prevented them from playing in the biggest sports event in the world, where 1 billion people watch this game. And not because they were the clearly better team, no. Because the Packers gave the game away in one of the most stupidest ways you have ever seen. They deserved to be there. Their fans deserved to be there. Their stadium is sold out since how long? 50 years? They have one of the best fans in the league and they sure as heck want them to give something back in week two - satisfaction. I am not saying they don't care about the game at Chicago. But it's a fact that you as a player think about the Seahawks game in week two. It's natural, those players are not machines. It may be those few little percent at some players' minds that makes you not being focused 100%, but maybe 95%. This is a game in which nuances can decide. I gave you a few examples on page one or two. Teams who have a massive look-ahead spot, tend to come out a little bit flat during the first half or will fold in the second half and don't run up the scoreboard. Some will say it's a rivalry, yes. But last season, the Packers had huge first halfs and didn't run up the scoreboard in the 2nd half. In the first game, they were up 24-17 and got two TD's with heavy field position in Bears' territory after interceptions by Jay Cutler. So there is a chance they will need to come from behind or you get a backdoor cover. On the other side, it's the Bears' Super Bowl. They will be fired up as hell. In this case, getting 6 points for a home team is very valuable.
4. The Packers will be missing their best receiver Jordy Nelson and probably a stud Guard in T.J. Lang who held Suh to just three pressures in two games. Nelson collected 98 receptions last year and had a league-leading 7 TDs on 40+ catches. He stretches the field vertically. If one QB can overcome such a loss, it's Aaron Rodgers. But he got only 3 weeks to get into rhythm with Cobb, Adams, Montgomery and Quarless. Cobb is a natural slot receiver with his height. Can Adams or Montgomery consistently beat Tim Jennings on the outside? I don't know. Maybe not in week one. The Bears also lost Jay Ratliff for three games and this definitely hurts. I need to watch some tape on Eddie Goldman, to see if he can get the best out of the Packers' RG backup if Lang is not ready.
Sum all this up and think about getting the Bears at +6 at home.
A summary of my arguments in this thread:
1. Over the last two regular seasons, the Packers are 12-12 on the road with Aaron Rodgers as their QB. While they also lost a few close ones, they also won a few close ones. Of those 12 wins, 5 have been by less than six points. So they have won by more than 6 points in 7 out of 24 road games in three years.
2. The Bears have a whole new coaching staff with a lot of new schemes on offense and defense. They were terrible last season, but they are still an NFL team. Jay Cutler has been a bust, but he also had good games in his career. He has an average o-line with a coach that worked together with Peyton Manning for three years. They turned an average o-line into one of the best along with two (?) Pro Bowlers. The Bears will likely miss Kevin White, but they still have Alshon Jeffery, a stud. His injury status should be followed closely, but it looks as he will play in week one. They have a very good slot receiver in Eddie Royal, a good TE and one of the best catching RBs in Matt Forte. If their new OC Adam Gase can surprise us all, it's in week one. Gase had one heck of a playbook for Peyton Manning. Their DC, Vic Fangio, turned the 16th-best scoring defense into the 2nd-best within one year at San Francisco and he had only two additions via the draft when I am right. He also was 4-0 against the Packers with the Niners.
3. The Packers have one of the biggest revenge games on deck in week two, hosting the Seahawks on SNF at Lambeau. The Seahawks prevented them from playing in the biggest sports event in the world, where 1 billion people watch this game. And not because they were the clearly better team, no. Because the Packers gave the game away in one of the most stupidest ways you have ever seen. They deserved to be there. Their fans deserved to be there. Their stadium is sold out since how long? 50 years? They have one of the best fans in the league and they sure as heck want them to give something back in week two - satisfaction. I am not saying they don't care about the game at Chicago. But it's a fact that you as a player think about the Seahawks game in week two. It's natural, those players are not machines. It may be those few little percent at some players' minds that makes you not being focused 100%, but maybe 95%. This is a game in which nuances can decide. I gave you a few examples on page one or two. Teams who have a massive look-ahead spot, tend to come out a little bit flat during the first half or will fold in the second half and don't run up the scoreboard. Some will say it's a rivalry, yes. But last season, the Packers had huge first halfs and didn't run up the scoreboard in the 2nd half. In the first game, they were up 24-17 and got two TD's with heavy field position in Bears' territory after interceptions by Jay Cutler. So there is a chance they will need to come from behind or you get a backdoor cover. On the other side, it's the Bears' Super Bowl. They will be fired up as hell. In this case, getting 6 points for a home team is very valuable.
4. The Packers will be missing their best receiver Jordy Nelson and probably a stud Guard in T.J. Lang who held Suh to just three pressures in two games. Nelson collected 98 receptions last year and had a league-leading 7 TDs on 40+ catches. He stretches the field vertically. If one QB can overcome such a loss, it's Aaron Rodgers. But he got only 3 weeks to get into rhythm with Cobb, Adams, Montgomery and Quarless. Cobb is a natural slot receiver with his height. Can Adams or Montgomery consistently beat Tim Jennings on the outside? I don't know. Maybe not in week one. The Bears also lost Jay Ratliff for three games and this definitely hurts. I need to watch some tape on Eddie Goldman, to see if he can get the best out of the Packers' RG backup if Lang is not ready.
Sum all this up and think about getting the Bears at +6 at home.
A+, Suuma. A+...
Posted:
#118
Suuma,
I'm impressed by your reasoning and the strength of your arguments and convictions ("Rams will beat Seattle," for example), and your leans are not even conventional but I have a strong feeling you indeed know what you're talking about.
While I have always liked the Dolphins, Bucs and Bengals in week 1, you have possibly changed my views on the Bears and Rams who I had previously given no chance at all.
I would now love your opinion on some teams that I also have my eye on this week including Texans at home vs. KC, Vikings away vs. SF, and the Browns away against the Jets.
My confidence is stronger at this point in the Texans and Vikings than Browns, but I would love your take on all three teams! Thanks Suuma!
Posted:
#119
Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:
Suuma,
I'm impressed by your reasoning and the strength of your arguments and convictions ("Rams will beat Seattle," for example), and your leans are not even conventional but I have a strong feeling you indeed know what you're talking about.
While I have always liked the Dolphins, Bucs and Bengals in week 1, you have possibly changed my views on the Bears and Rams who I had previously given no chance at all.
I would now love your opinion on some teams that I also have my eye on this week including Texans at home vs. KC, Vikings away vs. SF, and the Browns away against the Jets.
My confidence is stronger at this point in the Texans and Vikings than Browns, but I would love your take on all three teams! Thanks Suuma!
Thank you. A forecast: I will have extended write-ups and thoughts in my threads next week. Hoping to generate excellent discussions just like last season.
Some quick thoughts on the Browns: You have to ask yourself a question: Can Josh McCown or Johnny Manziel - along with this receiving corps - beat the Jets defense enough to cover a poorly FG? They won't be able to run at all so that's one dimension less on 3rd down situations and Todd Bowles will send a blizzard towards them on 3rd down. Brian Hartline will be completely taken away by Darrelle Revis and the rest isn't going to see good catching situations against Buster Skrine and Antonio Cromartie on throws from Manziel or McCown when getting pressured.
So the only real matchup to cap is the Jets' offense against a very good Browns' coverage but I think they won't need very much to do because they will get short fields. I think this game is won by the Jets' defense rather than the offense and the FG spread looks tasty in favor of the home team. This line came down a bit during the last couple days.
Posted:
#120
Summa’s brief analysis of the Browns at Jets was poor. Cle has a significantly better QB who is very mobile, unlike RF (McCown’s QBR two years ago was around 109 when he had a decent OLine and ground game with the Bears). Cle OLine is much better (most media rate it top 5 or so) than the Jets. Cle wideouts are not worse than the Jets: Hartline and Bowe are a bit worse than BM and Decker, but Hawkins was very good last year (better than the Jets slot), and Gabriel was in the top five in the league in yards per catch (30 some receptions). TE looks about even although the Browns’ Barnidge currently has caught 32 straight passes without a drop, the longest streak in the NFL. The Jets’ RBs rate a slight edge.
On D the Browns secondary is quite a bit better: PFF for instance gives all five starters green whereas Cro and Skrine are yellow (average). Both Browns’ safeties went to the pro bowl and are much better than the Jets’ guys. At LB Kruger and Dansby are excellent and the other LBs are solid, so the edge at LB goes to Cle. The Jets’ DLine without SRich is at best equal to the Browns very deep DLine (for instance, the Redskins double-teamed NT Danny Shelton on every play and even had to triple-team him at times). Overall, the Browns D ranked 9 last year in points given up whereas the Jets ranked around 26. The Browns D will be in the same system in year two; the Jets are learning a new system. Sure, Revis is a great addition but losing SRich cancels out most or all of the gain with Revis.
Summa thinks the Jets will have short fields, ignoring the Browns' new punter, Andy Lee, long a pro bowl punter with a huge leg.
Bowles can be expected to make mistakes in his first game as HC and with Pettine in year two, this is another edge for the Browns. Listen to Pettine: “It’s Year 2 for Mike Pettine and the majority of his assistants. This is a big deal. “I think back to a year ago and I don't know if I had any idea what I was doing.” “I just feel so much more comfortable and I think we all do as a staff and as a team. I think it's just true with anything, when you go through something for the first time, it's a feeling out process. ‘Oh, hey, this is new, let me log those notes down for next year.’ There's just such a comfort zone now. We all know this is a people business, and as you get to know the people you work with better, hopefully those relationships improve and you become more productive.”
Guys, you have to look hard at both teams … save your money and avoid Jets – 3. The Under is a much better play, but even that is questionable with the line now down to 39.5 at some places. The Browns averaged a shade over 27 ppg in their first five games last year with Mack at Center, versus some good teams (Pit twice, Bal, Saints, Titans), never scoring less than 22, and their offense is better this year.
BTW, 99+% of the posts I’ve read on covers are about handicapping and almost nothing about money management, yet IMO MM is just as important. Why do you think posters ignore MM?
Posted:
#121
Welcome to covers!
You call my “quick thoughts” on that game poor, but you didn’t even cap ANY matchups. You are comparing one unit with the same on the other side. Does that make any sense?
I don’t know where to start, I will try to go as chronologically as possible:
The Browns have a very good offensive line, I agree. You talk about mobile QBs – Todd Bowles was DC in a division with Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson. Josh McCown should be a significantly better QB than Ryan Fitzpatrick? I don’t think so. You were referring to his one good stretch in his career when he had a good o-line and a good run game. Do the Browns have a running game? I don’t think so. Going against one of the best run defenses in the league won’t help hem. Marc Trestman had one heck of a gameplan for McCown at Chicago and he was balling it out to Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett. This time he got Andrew Hawkins and the duo Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline who combined for less TDs than JJ Watt last season which someone mentioned in a different thread, EVEN THOUGH playing for much better QBs than Josh McCown.. Do you think any DC is afraid of this unit? And having 32 straight targets without a drop isn’t any indicator of being a good TE. Barnidge caught 13 of 24 passes last season.
You are talking about Danny Shelton who got doubled and tripled against a Redskins o-line that looked poorly so far. In week one he will line up against Nick Mangold, a six-time Pro Bowl center, one of the best in the league and James Carpenter and Willie Colon next to him. How about that? This is completely different caliber compared to the Skins’ o-line.
“Losing SRich cancels out most or all of the gain with Revis” – are you serious ?? This is the most head-scretching sentence I’ve read all week. How can the absence of a d-liner, that got replaced by the best overall player in the draft by the way, cancel the gain Revis brings to this defense??? Even against a good o-line? Please ask the New England Patriots of 2014 how much their lack of pass rush cancelled the gain of Revis. Just for instance: Julio Jones and Odell Beckham almost had NO shot after crossing the line of scrimmage in the pre-season games against Revis.
You compare these two defenses via PPG from 2014 – makes no sense. The Jets had one of the worst secondaries last season and are totally revamped this season. We talked about Revis. Then they added Antonio Cromartie, who didn’t play up to his potential the last two years after he was separated from Revis. But having Revis on the other side shutting down the #1 WR helps this guy a lot, you will see a much better season from him. Buster Skrine was graded poorly, but that’s not actually the truth. He was graded as a CB and he wasn’t really good as a #1 or #2 CB. His prime is playing in the slot where he is very good at covering his man. It’s sad that I don’t find stats about CBs in nickle formations. Marcus Gilchrist fills in a big gap at FS which allows Calvin Pryor, first-rounder in 2014, play his natural position again – SS. This secondary is nowhere near the unit of 2014 which got burned heavily, so talking about their PPG number doesn’t make any sense. And by the way, their defensive PPG was 22.8. Pick sixes don’t count.
Following..
Posted:
#122
Since May I kept telling I am excited about the Browns secondary and I was afraid if Geno Smith would be under center. But Ryan Fitzpatrick is the matured alternative and with a solid o-line and with Brandon Marshall at #1 which is an advantage for Decker at #2, and a really fluid running game, I expect them to have a few successful drives if their defense gets them some shorter fields which will absolutely be the case.
We can’t expect Leonard Williams to disrupt this Browns’ o-line all game long, but Bowles will send a lot of blitzes and when the Browns’ QBs have time on a few plays, they are trying to throw in very tight windows and look to find one of the worst receiving corps in the league. Brian Hartline had TWO receptions for 26 yards in both games against the Patriots combined. A secondary that was led by Darrelle Revis.
Andy Lee averaged around 47 yards per punt last season. He is a beast. But punting from the own red zone isn’t the easiest stuff to do and he can’t put the ball behind the Jets’ 30-yd line all game long.
Now it comes to my favorite statement of your post: “The Browns averaged a shade over 27 ppg in their first five games last year with Mack at center, versus good teams (Pit twice, Bal, Saints, Titans) never scoring less than 22, and their offense is better this year”.
1. They scored 21 points against the Ravens.
2. Pittsburgh twice, NO and Titans had all three a BOTTOM-TEN defense last season, especially against the pass. So there is nothing special about that stretch.
3. The only defense that can be accounted “good” was the Ravens who were missing 3 starters of their secondary
If you call my quick thoughts “poor”, let me call your analysis “deeply flawed” and in addition there wasn’t any analysis of the matchups on the field. Comparing the same units on both sides has nothing to do with capping a matchup on the field.
Regarding the question about money management: There was a good thread a few weeks ago. I will try to find him when I am back home later.
Posted:
#125
Let's not forget week 1 last year when KC got pounded at home by the Titans why maybe because they took them light with Denver in week 2
That being said Green Bay has Seattle in week 2 plus there in the road here I like the Bears in this spot but would like them a lot better at +7.5 which might get there public is massive on gb here
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