The biggest look-ahead spot in 2015 ? The Chicago Bears became an interesting option in week one

U gotta think that SEA will be thinking of GB too...

Jordy Nelson has reportedly torn his ACL. Huge blow for the Packers.

Wonder if it is a good time to bet on the Bears now before the line eventually drops back down. Can't trust the Bears to take advantage of other teams misfortunes. Packers could probably still cover the spread without Nelson they still have plenty of weapons but man that sucks Packer offense won't be as fun to watch now. Get well Jordy! 

Already back to +6 at my book. I don't lock anything in before the pre-season is over. Too many injuries occur at the moment.

The Packers are probably also going to miss RG T.J. Lang against the Bears the guy who allowed only three total pressures against Suh in both games last year. I don't expect the Packers offense to struggle this season, but Nelson is the real threat to this offense. 98 rec, 1500 yards, 7 TDs on 40+ yards throws in 2014. Without Nelson, Fangio has to prepare his team for one dimension less.

DA Bears +5 you've got to be kidding (this game is nowhere to be found at any LV books for Bears +6.5; maybe Offshore) I see no debate to even consider the Bears covering against the Pack, no Jordy Nelson, or home field advantage, DA Bears have absolutely nothing in their arsenal to compete on the same field with GB with the exception of an aging Jay Cutler, what does that tell you? that a new coaching staff is going to salvage the season? look for 5 WINS maxx, unfortunately the Packers are not going to be one of them, Packers -5 all the way to the bank

I got +7 @ -114 here in New Zealand

simple3:  those are great odds, would you be kind enough to share the name of that SportsBook? 

 

The Bears have a great chance, because like many in this thread believe:

1) New coaching staff for 3rd time in Cutler tenure will lead to different results

2) GB is going to be looking ahead to Seattle, and not caring about 1) first game of the year, 2)road divisional game 3) playing their biggest rival

The people and their logic on this site gets bettet every year

no such thing as revenge in professional sports...get the hellz outta here !!

Yeah, very funny. You still need better skills in reading comprehension. For the second or third time: No one said that they don't care about this game.

When I remember right you were the one who even defended the Packers' playoff loss against the Giants, which was an embarrassment at Lambeau ?! Weren't you the guy who said Russell Wilson is "average at best"? Well, but debating about other people's logic - brilliant.

You are far from being objective when it's about your Packers.

Dumbest post on this thread, congratulations! Please stay away if you have nothing useful to say.

 

Umm, pretty sure youre saying they wont care about this game? Or, maybe I need to copy and paste your initial post as well??

As for your questions...

1) Yes, I did

2) Yes, Wilson is average at best.  If you take away that great defense he has had, he is below .500 or .500 record at best

I still can't find where I said they don't care about this game ?!

"Of course the Packers will say they want to win at Chicago and will focus on that game and don't think ahead to Seattle. But it just isn't the truth. If you have ever played team sports, you will know that. There are games which you can't get 100% up for."

I exactly said that there are games where players don't get up 100% for. I didn't say they don't come up at all.

"I'm not saying the Packers will be flabby and soft, but I'm saying some guys won't be 100% focused on the Bears, because they have Seattle in their minds. Maybe they are 90% - it could be enough to not get the Packers' best effort"

I even clarified it in the next passage.

A summary of my arguments in this thread:

1. Over the last two regular seasons, the Packers are 12-12 on the road with Aaron Rodgers as their QB. While they also lost a few close ones, they also won a few close ones. Of those 12 wins, 5 have been by less than six points. So they have won by more than 6 points in 7 out of 24 road games in three years.

2. The Bears have a whole new coaching staff with a lot of new schemes on offense and defense. They were terrible last season, but they are still an NFL team. Jay Cutler has been a bust, but he also had good games in his career. He has an average o-line with a coach that worked together with Peyton Manning for three years. They turned an average o-line into one of the best along with two (?) Pro Bowlers. The Bears will likely miss Kevin White, but they still have Alshon Jeffery, a stud. His injury status should be followed closely, but it looks as he will play in week one. They have a very good slot receiver in Eddie Royal, a good TE and one of the best catching RBs in Matt Forte. If their new OC Adam Gase can surprise us all, it's in week one. Gase had one heck of a playbook for Peyton Manning. Their DC, Vic Fangio, turned the 16th-best scoring defense into the 2nd-best within one year at San Francisco and he had only two additions via the draft when I am right. He also was 4-0 against the Packers with the Niners.

3. The Packers have one of the biggest revenge games on deck in week two, hosting the Seahawks on SNF at Lambeau. The Seahawks prevented them from playing in the biggest sports event in the world, where 1 billion people watch this game. And not because they were the clearly better team, no. Because the Packers gave the game away in one of the most stupidest ways you have ever seen. They deserved to be there. Their fans deserved to be there. Their stadium is sold out since how long? 50 years? They have one of the best fans in the league and they sure as heck want them to give something back in week two - satisfaction. I am not saying they don't care about the game at Chicago. But it's a fact that you as a player think about the Seahawks game in week two. It's natural, those players are not machines. It may be those few little percent at some players' minds that makes you not being focused 100%, but maybe 95%. This is a game in which nuances can decide. I gave you a few examples on page one or two. Teams who have a massive look-ahead spot, tend to come out a little bit flat during the first half or will fold in the second half and don't run up the scoreboard. Some will say it's a rivalry, yes. But last season, the Packers had huge first halfs and didn't run up the scoreboard in the 2nd half. In the first game, they were up 24-17 and got two TD's with heavy field position in Bears' territory after interceptions by Jay Cutler. So there is a chance they will need to come from behind or you get a backdoor cover. On the other side, it's the Bears' Super Bowl. They will be fired up as hell. In this case, getting 6 points for a home team is very valuable.

4. The Packers will be missing their best receiver Jordy Nelson and probably a stud Guard in T.J. Lang who held Suh to just three pressures in two games. Nelson collected 98 receptions last year and had a league-leading 7 TDs on 40+ catches. He stretches the field vertically. If one QB can overcome such a loss, it's Aaron Rodgers. But he got only 3 weeks to get into rhythm with Cobb, Adams, Montgomery and Quarless. Cobb is a natural slot receiver with his height. Can Adams or Montgomery consistently beat Tim Jennings on the outside? I don't know. Maybe not in week one. The Bears also lost Jay Ratliff for three games and this definitely hurts. I need to watch some tape on Eddie Goldman, to see if he can get the best out of the Packers' RG backup if Lang is not ready.

Sum all this up and think about getting the Bears at +6 at home.

Suuma, excellent read. Hope springs eternal, at least for the first few games. Cutler will come out with something prove, especially after all the criticism he has gotten this off-season (from Marshall and the rest). The Bears are 4-2 in the opener (with Cutler) and the largest margin of defeat was by 6 at GB. They lost at home in OT to Buffalo by 3 last year; a game they should have won. Still, hard for me to bet on the Bears. I can't stand Cutler. Losing a bet is one thing, but losing with that guy is another. You end up hating yourself. 

Jeffery is day-to-day, same as Wilson with a harmstring. 19 days from now this shouldn't be an issue

I would like to get a discussion going about this game, because I think this is one of the biggest mismatches in week one and the Bengals are my strongest lean so far. I like the additions for the Raiders and expect them to be improved, but it's not enough for a week one matchup against the Bengals. Cincy have a top-3 offensive line, maybe the 2nd-best right after Dallas. They got the luxury to draft two o-liner with their first two picks just for some prevention in the next off-season. Those guys aren't even the starters. That's a very deep unit. The Raiders won't get pressure on Andy Dalton and their secondary isn't good enough to compete with the vertically-challenging Marvin Jones and A.J. Green. Tyler Eifert is back who is an upgrade over Jermaine Gresham. I would be wondering if the Bengals score less than 30.

On the other side the Raiders are facing a very good defense. Bengals' pass rush is going to be improved, but with Michael Johnson probably being sidelined in week one, the Raiders offensive line could be able to negate the rush. Paul Dawson was a very good pickup and a steal in the third round, he flashed so far in the pre-season. On the secondary they get Darqueze Dennard and Dre Kirkpatrick, two former first round picks, back. I can really see Kirkpatrick starting in week one and Amari Cooper isn't going to beat many times. And I already had this defense ranked 12th overall in 2014. I see the Raiders having a hard time scoring more than 17 points.

Many people always think about the Red Rifle and Marvin Lewis choking when it matters the most. But in fact, this team won 10 games last season despite missing Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert the whole season and despite A.J. Green missing several games or playing hurt. Their secondary was a little thin and their pass-rush was non-existent. They still won 10 games in a tough division.

Suuma,
Just wanted to say that your threads/posts are always a good read.

Re the OAK-CIN game, Hue Jackson (Bengals, OC) and Mark Davis didn't exactly part on good terms. Good chance that Hue is looking forward to this game.

Good luck this season. 

As always SummaI greatly appreciate and value your write-ups!

Ill be laying off this game all together, I dont like playing these nasty divisional games unless I'm on the dog. Pack is just too scary but if I HAD to pick it'd be Bears +7 no doubt.