All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

suuma's NFL week six

...

Participants:

Posts: 170

fadeORdie

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 3812

Posted: Oct. 16, 2015 - 5:51 PM ET #76

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

I still don't look at those things. Cardinals at Detroit was also a "public" play according to your comments, wasn't it?

And that's why you will remain an average handicapper at best.

Use money/line movement to your advantage and you will win more than you lose - that's a promise.

MRxKrazz

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 11486

Posted: Oct. 16, 2015 - 7:42 PM ET #77

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

New Orleans Saints +3.5 -113

6pt-teaser Jets pk / Packers -4
Miami Dolphins ML +111
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 -105
Philadelphia Eagles -4 -105

Leans/waiting for injury updates or line moves:

Bills ATS
Panthers +7
Lions -3

You making me work very hard to find a reason to back PIT with you SUUMA!!!!!!!!!!!!

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6508

Posted: Oct. 16, 2015 - 9:59 PM ET #78

Quote Originally Posted by simple3:

People are talking about Manuel being no downgrade from Taylor, Taylor has been exceptionally good and advanced stats show that...as well as the eye test. Manuel would/will be a huge downgrade, wouldn't go anywhere near the Bills even with +6 if he Manuel plays.

My PPI rates Taylor just 16% more efficient at passing w/o interceptions. Pro Football Reference rates Manuel just #8,138 but that is higher than Taylor at #12,778.

DogbiteWilliams

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 6508

Posted: Oct. 16, 2015 - 10:06 PM ET #79

Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

And that's why you will remain an average handicapper at best.

Use money/line movement to your advantage and you will win more than you lose - that's a promise.

How is 102-66 (60.7%) over his last 168 games "average at best"? Please accurately state your winning percentage over 2014-2015, please.

For me, 168 games wagered would probably occur over 5 years, and I'd be nowhere near 56%.

simple3

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2015

Posts: 888

Posted: Oct. 16, 2015 - 11:15 PM ET #80

Just remember that the Bills were so low on Manuel coming into the season that they had signed Cassel, Manuel was inactive when Cassel was still on the roster.

The dude is a bad, bad footballer.

Don't forget Tyrod Taylor makes plays with his feet also

Barnstorm

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 4719

Posted: Oct. 16, 2015 - 11:39 PM ET #81

Tyrod Taylor is "doubtful."

Barnstorm

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 4719

Posted: Oct. 16, 2015 - 11:44 PM ET #82

I didn't see much to like with the Steelers vs the Chargers.

Vick looks lost and rattled and doesn't know half the playbook. He is not accurate and with the AZ pressure, he is bound to turn it over a couple of times.

Pitt's DL is good and LBs pretty good, but their secondary is pretty bad. Even with a decimated OL, Phillip Rivers moved the ball pretty well against them. Bruce Arians will dissect that D and Carson Palmer and his many weapons should score enough.

The Line has gone from AZ -3 to AZ -4 and now back down to -3.5. Big Ben is doubtful.

LogCottage

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 4755

Posted: Oct. 16, 2015 - 11:58 PM ET #83

15 years in the league and Vick STILL can't read defenses.

They've dumbed down the play book for him.

The only reason he's there is Tomlin.

Tomlin's signings for QB behind Ben are as follows:

Dennis Dixon/Charlie Batch/Byron Leftwich/Michael Vick

See a pattern?

slomotion

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 2852

Posted: Oct. 17, 2015 - 1:29 AM ET #84

Quote Originally Posted by LogCottage:

15 years in the league and Vick STILL can't read defenses.

They've dumbed down the play book for him.

The only reason he's there is Tomlin.

Tomlin's signings for QB behind Ben are as follows:

Dennis Dixon/Charlie Batch/Byron Leftwich/Michael Vick

See a pattern?

Tell it like it is my man.

suuma

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4455

Posted: Oct. 17, 2015 - 6:17 AM ET #85

Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

And that's why you will remain an average handicapper at best.

Use money/line movement to your advantage and you will win more than you lose - that's a promise.

Wow. So I will soon hit 70% instead of 60%+ by following some consensus numbers???

Thanks for the great advice, you are a genius

The key secret to betting with success is finally revealed

How did you system work this season? Do you swim in the money?

suuma

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4455

Posted: Oct. 17, 2015 - 6:30 AM ET #86

Thanks for all the great information and discussions on this thread, fellas. Let's keep it going throughout the season

fadeORdie

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 3812

Posted: Oct. 17, 2015 - 6:43 AM ET #87

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Wow. So I will soon hit 70% instead of 60%+ by following some consensus numbers???

Thanks for the great advice, you are a genius

The key secret to betting with success is finally revealed

How did you system work this season? Do you swim in the money?

I see you've already taken my advice on board. All your picks this week are against the public. Quite a contrast from your previous weeks that has resulted in you sitting at 50%. You'll do well this week.

suuma

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4455

Posted: Oct. 17, 2015 - 6:59 AM ET #88

Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

If I sweep the board, I will call it the "fadeORdie winning week". That's a promise.

Aren't the Jets a public pick? Just wondering.

Barnstorm

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 4719

Posted: Oct. 17, 2015 - 12:30 PM ET #89

Quote Originally Posted by LogCottage:

15 years in the league and Vick STILL can't read defenses.

They've dumbed down the play book for him.

The only reason he's there is Tomlin.

Tomlin's signings for QB behind Ben are as follows:

Dennis Dixon/Charlie Batch/Byron Leftwich/Michael Vick

See a pattern?

Left-handers?!

Jailbait7127

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2013

Posts: 6824

Posted: Oct. 17, 2015 - 12:43 PM ET #90

Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

And that's why you will remain an average handicapper at best.

Use money/line movement to your advantage and you will win more than you lose - that's a promise.

hey bud.. where are your plays ?

suuma

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4455

Posted: Oct. 17, 2015 - 1:22 PM ET #91

Passing on BUF, DET, & BAL because of the injury situations.

Maxhtes

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2015

Posts: 50

Posted: Oct. 17, 2015 - 5:20 PM ET #92

Suuma since I valid your opinion what's your take on the chiefs game many of the top hcappers on the supercontest have them on their selections and I can't find and angle on this game. Love your writeups everyweek. Not that matters but for my supercontest I picked SD ne Carolina Philly and Bufallo I believe ej Manuel if he plays it might be an upgrade. Thank you and good luck this week

Dubfire

Veteran

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 1006

Posted: Oct. 17, 2015 - 5:35 PM ET #93

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

I still don't look at those things. Cardinals at Detroit was also a "public" play according to your comments, wasn't it?

Hey Summa,

I'm really sick of people talking about public this...fade the public etc.

It doesn't matter. Just because one side gets most of the money doesn't mean it has less chance of winning. Of course vegas wins in the long run, but all they need to do is go 50% on the lob sided games.

For example let's look at this scenario:

Game 1: Team A has 75% of money on them and they cover...(wow vegas lost bunch of money!)

Game 2: Team A has 75% of the money on them and they don't cover...(vegas makes the money back!)

In the end, vegas comes out ahead due to juice.

I feel cappers get distracted by thinking square vs sharp...etc etc.

I'm sure you will agree with me. GL this week.

fuzzybunny

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 50

Posted: Oct. 17, 2015 - 5:45 PM ET #94

Thanks for posting your picks suuma!

BOL!

NFLCap

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 124

Posted: Oct. 17, 2015 - 5:49 PM ET #95

I like Min -3.5, Jets -5.5, ARI 3/-4.5, NE -7.5, MIA +2.5. Though I think NE could be the trap game especially if Luck is healthy. I even like CIN -2.5/-3.5 since Taylor is out though might not go there. I think DEN covers as they are better and can stop Browns.

melossinglet

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 15769

Posted: Oct. 18, 2015 - 1:42 AM ET #96

Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127:

hey bud.. where are your plays ?

hahaha...believe me,you dont wanna know

.....me and suuma had a good laugh about this last week,the times he has posted plays based on his feckin hair-brained "theories" he has gotten absolutely CRUSHED...non-stop stream of losers,hehe....talkin bout how hes got the "script" before the games and the "actors" just never seemed to co-operate,haha.

him coming into scalabrine and suuma threads and handing out advice is like tim tebow tryna give ron jeremy advice on how to fukk.

it wud be magnificent if he wud post actually,wud be a money train for sure...he wud have to change his name simply to "fade" tho.

NFL-1975

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2013

Posts: 1780

Posted: Oct. 18, 2015 - 3:10 AM ET #97

I have to agree with you on the Pittsburgh game there front seven has been getting tough pressure up front which is the weakness to Bruce Arians sceme. Plain and simple the Rams forced Palmer to not only throw some loose balls up they also put quiet a few shots on him I can tell you one thing Pittsburgh moved on from Arians not because they though he was a bad coach which we all know he's a great football mind but because he was getting Big Ben hurt back there with his down the field passing game. I give Palmer til week 10 and he will be replaced due to injury. Vic has to play turnover free ball here but I can see Pitts defense stepping it up big here at home or ATLEAST making the cover 30-27 cards

NFL-1975

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2013

Posts: 1780

Posted: Oct. 18, 2015 - 3:15 AM ET #98

[Quote: Originally Posted by LogCottage] 15 years in the league and Vick STILL can't read defenses.

They've dumbed down the play book for him.

The only reason he's there is Tomlin.

Tomlin's signings for QB behind Ben are as follows:

Dennis Dixon/Charlie Batch/Byron Leftwich/Michael Vick

See a pattern?

[/Quote

Your a complete idiot. Vic was signed due to the second string QB Bruce grobkowski going down in the third Preseason game with a fractured risk and when you have a team that is playoff bound and on the rise you need a second string with experience and Charlie batch was brought in under cowher many years ago so before you post something get your facts right sir. Bol sorry just had to state some facts and Vic hasn't played well at all but he hasn't lost the games for us either Besides Big Ben is 50/50 he might see action from what information I've been hearings

BetFriends

Veteran

Joined: May, 2015

Posts: 1375

Posted: Oct. 18, 2015 - 3:37 AM ET #99

Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

And that's why you will remain an average handicapper at best.

Use money/line movement to your advantage and you will win more than you lose - that's a promise.

You're an idiot. 'Fading the public' and following imaginary sharps on 'line movement' is a long-term 50% capping strategy -- because you're making decisions on something that doesn't actually exist.

Don't tell someone who actually handicaps the game of football that they need to learn how to factor in non-existent elements.

I guarantee you've never tracked your public/sharp RLM results over the course of one or more seasons, because if you'd had you'd have discovered the 100% reliable ZERO effect it has on any long-term records.

Watching RLM movement and fading who you think 'the public' is on is the same as factoring in which star signs are in orbit on the night of your bets.

No wonder your name is 'fadeORdie' and you're in the penalty box. If a 'public' does exist, it consists solely of idiots like you who make up 95% of the clueless sheep on boards like this.

Dafuq outta here calling a proven capper 'average at best' with your clueless Consesus % Looking Azz.