Posted:
#1
18-15 YTD
2014: 83-51 (62%)
I am due like a pregnant woman after nine and a half months.
New Orleans Saints +3.5 -113
Did you know that a favorite never covered on TNF when the team is off an overtime win? 0-7 ATS. Teams on TNF off an overtime game in general, are 6-17 SU and 4-19 ATS. Before the Colts covered last week, those teams were on a 0-14 ATS streak.
Aside from that trend, I really like the situation here in favor of the Saints. They are in a huge bounceback situation with their backs to the wall after that loss at Philly while the 5-0 Falcons travel off an overtime win at home with a banged up Julio Jones. There have been rumors today that he won't be on a pitch count, but I can't believe that. He was barely moving on Sunday, limping around and he had no full practice since two weeks I guess. The Saints will try to double him with a safety. If they can limit his action radius, their front seven can benefit and I expect them to limit Davonta Freeman which would set up some more 3rd and medium/long type of plays.
The banged up OL of the Saints won't be that much of a problem against the Falcons because they don't have a stout front seven and they rarely rush more than four men. Dan Quinn wants the opposite QB to beat him deep and that's why I believe the Saints are going to be successful via screen passes and in short yardage situations. Third downs will be a key in this game and I expect the Saints to be successful. The Falcons defense have been very good on third downs but their schedule was below average in that category (#17). The Saints have a very good third down offense.
Rest of the week:
6pt-teaser Jets pk / Packers -4
Miami Dolphins ML +111
Philadelphia Eagles -4 -105
Leans/waiting for injury updates or line moves:
Bills ATS
Panthers +7
Steelers +3.5
Ravens -2.5
Lions -3
Good luck everybody
2014: 83-51 (62%)
I am due like a pregnant woman after nine and a half months.
New Orleans Saints +3.5 -113
Did you know that a favorite never covered on TNF when the team is off an overtime win? 0-7 ATS. Teams on TNF off an overtime game in general, are 6-17 SU and 4-19 ATS. Before the Colts covered last week, those teams were on a 0-14 ATS streak.
Aside from that trend, I really like the situation here in favor of the Saints. They are in a huge bounceback situation with their backs to the wall after that loss at Philly while the 5-0 Falcons travel off an overtime win at home with a banged up Julio Jones. There have been rumors today that he won't be on a pitch count, but I can't believe that. He was barely moving on Sunday, limping around and he had no full practice since two weeks I guess. The Saints will try to double him with a safety. If they can limit his action radius, their front seven can benefit and I expect them to limit Davonta Freeman which would set up some more 3rd and medium/long type of plays.
The banged up OL of the Saints won't be that much of a problem against the Falcons because they don't have a stout front seven and they rarely rush more than four men. Dan Quinn wants the opposite QB to beat him deep and that's why I believe the Saints are going to be successful via screen passes and in short yardage situations. Third downs will be a key in this game and I expect the Saints to be successful. The Falcons defense have been very good on third downs but their schedule was below average in that category (#17). The Saints have a very good third down offense.
Rest of the week:
6pt-teaser Jets pk / Packers -4
Miami Dolphins ML +111
Philadelphia Eagles -4 -105
Leans/waiting for injury updates or line moves:
Bills ATS
Panthers +7
Steelers +3.5
Ravens -2.5
Lions -3
Good luck everybody
...good luck, i'll be on it as well!
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