Posted:
#26
suuma's NFL week six
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by kcobra:
Take it from a SAINTS fan, they are bad. Don't bet on bad teams.
Take it from a SAINTS fan, they are bad. Don't bet on bad teams.
ATL QB playing better than NO QB
ATL DEF playing better than NO DEF
ATL coach is better than NO coach
ATL running game is better than NO
ATL kicker is better
I can go on and on, but I'll stop here.
ATL -3 1/2
It is still the NFL, buddy
Its about spots and matchups.
Its about spots and matchups.
Posted:
#37
Quote Originally Posted by simple3:
Falcons had a stack of miscues tonight, they're a lot better than that right?
Falcons had a stack of miscues tonight, they're a lot better than that right?
I can't work out where the saints stand after that game, is their D-line for real?
As a Saints fan , we don't stand anywhere. We are rebuilding . This was only a rival game. Don't over think it. We just hate Falcons. Don't bet on SAINTS . God I hope I am wrong.
Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
18-15 YTD
2014: 83-51 (62%)
I am due like a pregnant woman after nine and a half months.
New Orleans Saints +3.5 -113
Did you know that a favorite never covered on TNF when the team is off an overtime win? 0-7 ATS. Teams on TNF off an overtime game in general, are 6-17 SU and 4-19 ATS. Before the Colts covered last week, those teams were on a 0-14 ATS streak.
Aside from that trend, I really like the situation here in favor of the Saints. They are in a huge bounceback situation with their backs to the wall after that loss at Philly while the 5-0 Falcons travel off an overtime win at home with a banged up Julio Jones. There have been rumors today that he won't be on a pitch count, but I can't believe that. He was barely moving on Sunday, limping around and he had no full practice since two weeks I guess. The Saints will try to double him with a safety. If they can limit his action radius, their front seven can benefit and I expect them to limit Davonta Freeman which would set up some more 3rd and medium/long type of plays.
The banged up OL of the Saints won't be that much of a problem against the Falcons because they don't have a stout front seven and they rarely rush more than four men. Dan Quinn wants the opposite QB to beat him deep and that's why I believe the Saints are going to be successful via screen passes and in short yardage situations. Third downs will be a key in this game and I expect the Saints to be successful. The Falcons defense have been very good on third downs but their schedule was below average in that category (#17). The Saints have a very good third down offense.
Rest of the week:
6pt-teaser Jets pk / Packers -4
Miami Dolphins ML +111
Philadelphia Eagles -4 -105
Leans/waiting for injury updates or line moves:
Bills ATS
Panthers +7
Steelers +3.5
Ravens -2.5
Lions -3
Good luck everybody
18-15 YTD
2014: 83-51 (62%)
I am due like a pregnant woman after nine and a half months.
New Orleans Saints +3.5 -113
Did you know that a favorite never covered on TNF when the team is off an overtime win? 0-7 ATS. Teams on TNF off an overtime game in general, are 6-17 SU and 4-19 ATS. Before the Colts covered last week, those teams were on a 0-14 ATS streak.
Aside from that trend, I really like the situation here in favor of the Saints. They are in a huge bounceback situation with their backs to the wall after that loss at Philly while the 5-0 Falcons travel off an overtime win at home with a banged up Julio Jones. There have been rumors today that he won't be on a pitch count, but I can't believe that. He was barely moving on Sunday, limping around and he had no full practice since two weeks I guess. The Saints will try to double him with a safety. If they can limit his action radius, their front seven can benefit and I expect them to limit Davonta Freeman which would set up some more 3rd and medium/long type of plays.
The banged up OL of the Saints won't be that much of a problem against the Falcons because they don't have a stout front seven and they rarely rush more than four men. Dan Quinn wants the opposite QB to beat him deep and that's why I believe the Saints are going to be successful via screen passes and in short yardage situations. Third downs will be a key in this game and I expect the Saints to be successful. The Falcons defense have been very good on third downs but their schedule was below average in that category (#17). The Saints have a very good third down offense.
Rest of the week:
6pt-teaser Jets pk / Packers -4
Miami Dolphins ML +111
Philadelphia Eagles -4 -105
Leans/waiting for injury updates or line moves:
Bills ATS
Panthers +7
Steelers +3.5
Ravens -2.5
Lions -3
Good luck everybody
I am due like a pregnant woman after nine and a half months.
HAHAHAHA 
Good play SUUMA!!
Good luck rest of the week and season.
Posted:
#42
Quote Originally Posted by simple3:
Falcons had a stack of miscues tonight, they're a lot better than that right?
Falcons had a stack of miscues tonight, they're a lot better than that right?
I can't work out where the saints stand after that game, is their D-line for real?
Don't overestimate this win. Like JDE said, it was a huge rivalry game in a phenomenal spot with their season on the line and a lot of media talk about Sean Payton. The Falcons' played more than solid ytd but they are limited on quality.
The next matchup with a healthy Julio and when the Falcons are not off an overtime win, could be a completely different one.
Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by GrindItOut44:
Summa best of luck to you this week. I see those stats on the TNF game but that game still looks like a Falcons play or a no play to me, Devonta Freeman against one of the worst run D's in the NFL, I don't know. Anyway best of luck to you this week.
Summa best of luck to you this week. I see those stats on the TNF game but that game still looks like a Falcons play or a no play to me, Devonta Freeman against one of the worst run D's in the NFL, I don't know. Anyway best of luck to you this week.
I'll call myself out because I'm a Summa fan not a hater!! Nice call. I knew the "numbers" and decided to go against the grain thinking the Falcons talent and leaning on their running game would be enough but the "numbers" were definitely right and so was Summa, nice call Buddy!! Luckily I'm on Stanford and was on the Mets (FEK the Dodgers 
) so hopefully can still have a winning night, now since I'm claiming games I didn't post I will admit I was on Houston last night so at the end of the night I should be about break even with vig on the week, I can live with that. Bring on the weekend slate and good luck with your games Summa and nice Start 
) so hopefully can still have a winning night, now since I'm claiming games I didn't post I will admit I was on Houston last night so at the end of the night I should be about break even with vig on the week, I can live with that. Bring on the weekend slate and good luck with your games Summa and nice Start 
Posted:
#45
See I think the whole overtime thing is skewed. As NO defense plays 22 more snaps than the Atlanta defense did last week. I just think Atlanta played a horrendously sloppy game, the blocked punts, fumbles, dropped catches etc etc killed them. They just played a horrendous game. Vic Beasley hardly played either. I know you were on the Saints, I'm just talking about going forward I think the Falcons are a good team, albeit limited like you say. The defense definitely lacks the playmakers required to be a championship team. Kinda similar to that team they had a few years back in Gonzo's 2nd last year.
I was just struggling to work out if this game made the Saints a half decent team or not, as their defensive line(Jordan) did rack up some serious pressure against a good offensive line in the 2nd half and Brees had the offense churning like clockwork.
I think both teams will be good for overs going forward perhaps.
Posted:
#46
Quote Originally Posted by GrindItOut44:
I'll call myself out because I'm a Summa fan not a hater!! Nice call. I knew the "numbers" and decided to go against the grain thinking the Falcons talent and leaning on their running game would be enough but the "numbers" were definitely right and so was Summa, nice call Buddy!! Luckily I'm on Stanford and was on the Mets (FEK the Dodgers ) so hopefully can still have a winning night, now since I'm claiming games I didn't post I will admit I was on Houston last night so at the end of the night I should be about break even with vig on the week, I can live with that. Bring on the weekend slate and good luck with your games Summa and nice Start
) so hopefully can still have a winning night, now since I'm claiming games I didn't post I will admit I was on Houston last night so at the end of the night I should be about break even with vig on the week, I can live with that. Bring on the weekend slate and good luck with your games Summa and nice Start Leaning on a running game will never be enough to win an NFL game. Points are scored and games are won by passing.
Hope you have a good and profitable weekend buddy
Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by simple3:
See I think the whole overtime thing is skewed. As NO defense plays 22 more snaps than the Atlanta defense did last week. I just think Atlanta played a horrendously sloppy game, the blocked punts, fumbles, dropped catches etc etc killed them. They just played a horrendous game. Vic Beasley hardly played either. I know you were on the Saints, I'm just talking about going forward I think the Falcons are a good team, albeit limited like you say. The defense definitely lacks the playmakers required to be a championship team. Kinda similar to that team they had a few years back in Gonzo's 2nd last year.
See I think the whole overtime thing is skewed. As NO defense plays 22 more snaps than the Atlanta defense did last week. I just think Atlanta played a horrendously sloppy game, the blocked punts, fumbles, dropped catches etc etc killed them. They just played a horrendous game. Vic Beasley hardly played either. I know you were on the Saints, I'm just talking about going forward I think the Falcons are a good team, albeit limited like you say. The defense definitely lacks the playmakers required to be a championship team. Kinda similar to that team they had a few years back in Gonzo's 2nd last year.
I was just struggling to work out if this game made the Saints a half decent team or not, as their defensive line(Jordan) did rack up some serious pressure against a good offensive line in the 2nd half and Brees had the offense churning like clockwork.
I think both teams will be good for overs going forward perhaps.
Obviously, Saints backers got a few good breaks during the first half, I can't deny that. But I would say over the full 60 minutes, the Saints have earned that cover, especially after their adjustments on defense in the second half.
Well, I was very high on the Saints before the season started as I believe they made the right moves during the off-season to have a playoff/wild card caliber team, but their injuries on D and the injury of Drew Brees hurt them significantly. I think they are still not a good defense but they should progress going forward.
Their secondary is not the worst in the league, but after Junior Gallette left, their front seven can't get enough pressure on opposing QBs and that's a big problem.
Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:
Would like to hear your thoughts on Panthers + 7 lean cause i probably will be on the other side. BOL mate. One of the few threads i open here.
Would like to hear your thoughts on Panthers + 7 lean cause i probably will be on the other side. BOL mate. One of the few threads i open here.
I am still figuring out this bet, whether I play it +7 or +13 in a teaser.
The Panthers haven't played against great offenses, but their defense has been outstanding and the Seahawks don't have a great offense either. The Panthers probably have the best LB corps in the NFL, their covering ability is outstanding. Roman Harper is a great SS who should contain Jimmy Graham for most of the game. Josh Norman has been playing on a Pro Bowl level, he should have a good game against Tyler Lockett. Those two guys, along with their great LB corps and DL against the worst OL in the league will cause a lot of limitations for the Seahawks offense which makes me believe they can't cover 7, let alone 13.
The Panthers have been capable of scoring and Cam Newton finally plays up to his potential. Remember those two teams met in the playoffs in 2014 where one pick-six by Chancellor in the end zone made the difference. The Panthers outgained a Seahawks team that was much better than this time. Carolina is on revenge and against a defense that misses Bobby Wagner and Jordan Hill, they should be capable of scoring enough to keep this game atleast very close.
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