Andy/Glyde/anyone else with a play on the Bears game...what do you guys think of these trends?
- QB's starting their first playoff game are 5-19 SU since 2003 - Home favorites: 1-10 ATS - Jay Cutler is only 1-8 against the spread in his career as a favorite of six points or more (0-3 as -9 or more)
I really like the Bears this weekend, but I found these trends on another website and they are very one sided. Only thing that's keeping me from having a big play on the Bears.
NE, I'm not really a trend guy. I'm pretty serious with my gambling and I put a lot into reaching my goal every year in MLB and NFL, so I do everything in my power to have an open mind on EVERY aspect of a game. But if I really dig a team(Seattle is an example last week) after doing my capping, you can give me 101 trends on why New Orleans were the bet, and I'll almost always ignore it. A friend of mine who is a trend guy always tells me I am stubborn and it is my weakness, but I don't know.....I just value different things a lot more.
That being said, those are some pertinent stats/trends, and if I was kinda so-so about the game or maybe leaning Seattle but not enough to bet, those things right there just might be enough to sway me from a lean to a wager.
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Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:
Andy/Glyde/anyone else with a play on the Bears game...what do you guys think of these trends?
- QB's starting their first playoff game are 5-19 SU since 2003 - Home favorites: 1-10 ATS - Jay Cutler is only 1-8 against the spread in his career as a favorite of six points or more (0-3 as -9 or more)
I really like the Bears this weekend, but I found these trends on another website and they are very one sided. Only thing that's keeping me from having a big play on the Bears.
NE, I'm not really a trend guy. I'm pretty serious with my gambling and I put a lot into reaching my goal every year in MLB and NFL, so I do everything in my power to have an open mind on EVERY aspect of a game. But if I really dig a team(Seattle is an example last week) after doing my capping, you can give me 101 trends on why New Orleans were the bet, and I'll almost always ignore it. A friend of mine who is a trend guy always tells me I am stubborn and it is my weakness, but I don't know.....I just value different things a lot more.
That being said, those are some pertinent stats/trends, and if I was kinda so-so about the game or maybe leaning Seattle but not enough to bet, those things right there just might be enough to sway me from a lean to a wager.
I think the Jets have a great chance of winning this game outright, so I think getting 8.5 points is a gift. As Seattle showed last weekend, anything can happen in the playoffs. These big spreads are an overreaction to the regular season. Besides, it seems like everyone who is looking at the regular season for info has kinda forgotten the Jets beat the Pats by 14 earlier this year. Pats weren't at their best, but neither were the Jets when they got molly-whopped 45-3 in that fluke of a game. The Jets defense is key in this game. I think its the best in the NFL and the Pats will struggle to score at times this Sunday. The Jets offense will establish the run and Sanchez will play good enough for the Jets to win. Just my opinion. 17-13 Jets.
not with the dirty sanchez.. in the cold...
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Quote Originally Posted by Jersey973:
I think the Jets have a great chance of winning this game outright, so I think getting 8.5 points is a gift. As Seattle showed last weekend, anything can happen in the playoffs. These big spreads are an overreaction to the regular season. Besides, it seems like everyone who is looking at the regular season for info has kinda forgotten the Jets beat the Pats by 14 earlier this year. Pats weren't at their best, but neither were the Jets when they got molly-whopped 45-3 in that fluke of a game. The Jets defense is key in this game. I think its the best in the NFL and the Pats will struggle to score at times this Sunday. The Jets offense will establish the run and Sanchez will play good enough for the Jets to win. Just my opinion. 17-13 Jets.
Packer backers/fans, do you think Travon Williams can handle Roddy White 1 on 1 on the outside? Do you think GB will go with a gameplan like that? I like Woodson a lot more if he is helping stop the Falcon's true secret weapon(Gonzo) and zone blitzing from all over the place rather than playing games with Roddy. Williams has been getting the credit he deserves of late from the media, and I think he has a few pro bowls in him, but RIGHT NOW does anyone think he can stop Roddy or even be entrusted with that assignment?
I'm not sure anyone can stop Roddy. #1 WR are very rarely stopped although they can be contained. Not sure how they played him in the first meeting but he had just 5 catches for 49 yards. Falcons threw 28 times.
Couple injury notes for this one:
Green Bay's starting center missed practice the first two days this week and only practiced in a limited capacity today. He's listed as questionable.
Atlanta's nickle corner Brain Williams did not practice all week with a knee problem. He's listed as doubtful.
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Packer backers/fans, do you think Travon Williams can handle Roddy White 1 on 1 on the outside? Do you think GB will go with a gameplan like that? I like Woodson a lot more if he is helping stop the Falcon's true secret weapon(Gonzo) and zone blitzing from all over the place rather than playing games with Roddy. Williams has been getting the credit he deserves of late from the media, and I think he has a few pro bowls in him, but RIGHT NOW does anyone think he can stop Roddy or even be entrusted with that assignment?
I'm not sure anyone can stop Roddy. #1 WR are very rarely stopped although they can be contained. Not sure how they played him in the first meeting but he had just 5 catches for 49 yards. Falcons threw 28 times.
Couple injury notes for this one:
Green Bay's starting center missed practice the first two days this week and only practiced in a limited capacity today. He's listed as questionable.
Atlanta's nickle corner Brain Williams did not practice all week with a knee problem. He's listed as doubtful.
Hey, I really don't think Travon Williams can do well by himself against White.. He'll definitely need some safety help..
Glyde, you really have given excellent insight into a lot of games. Just curious why you don't create your own threads.. I really agree with your thoughts on the Jets and Bears games. BOL to you and andarmac..
Appreciate your opinion on Travon. Judging by responses from you and a handful of others to my questions, I may have overrated him a bit. I caught the last 3 Pack games and he really has impressed me though. I'm gonna keep an eye on tomorrow.
As for threads, I used to make my own, but I noticed I would take a lot of time to write out good shit, but never got much of a response/views so I stopped. Got to talking with Andy a couple years back and hit it off with him well and things just flowed good in his threads. Not to mention a helluva lot more people visit his threads, so more views=more convo=more results. A lot of people like to knock Covers because of it's zoolike atmosphere, but underneath the horseshit, there is a lot of valuable information available. I try to give a little bit for all the good shit I've taken the last half a decade.
GL this weekend and pop in more with your insight.
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Quote Originally Posted by RJ89:
Hey, I really don't think Travon Williams can do well by himself against White.. He'll definitely need some safety help..
Glyde, you really have given excellent insight into a lot of games. Just curious why you don't create your own threads.. I really agree with your thoughts on the Jets and Bears games. BOL to you and andarmac..
Appreciate your opinion on Travon. Judging by responses from you and a handful of others to my questions, I may have overrated him a bit. I caught the last 3 Pack games and he really has impressed me though. I'm gonna keep an eye on tomorrow.
As for threads, I used to make my own, but I noticed I would take a lot of time to write out good shit, but never got much of a response/views so I stopped. Got to talking with Andy a couple years back and hit it off with him well and things just flowed good in his threads. Not to mention a helluva lot more people visit his threads, so more views=more convo=more results. A lot of people like to knock Covers because of it's zoolike atmosphere, but underneath the horseshit, there is a lot of valuable information available. I try to give a little bit for all the good shit I've taken the last half a decade.
GL this weekend and pop in more with your insight.
That might be because Woodson has lost about 6 steps. I was going to say lost a step, but thats an understatement.
Look at what they have done against comparable receiving corps...like the Lions. Its ugly.
Atlanta played a very, very conservative game against GB the first time. They only had 4 attempts that were over 15 yards all game. They dink and dunked. I cannot imagine them playing that close to the vest again. Take advantage of the favorable matchups at WR/CB. A decent TE can also kill GB and Atl has one of those.
Disagree with ya here a bit buddy.
The Packers defense is quite a bit different than the one the Lions saw 3 months ago when they threw for 332 (on over 50 attempts). They weren't even playing Shields at that time and in recent weeks they have had time to get used to each other and develop chemistry as there hasn't been much shuffling of players because no one else has gotten hurt. They played pretty well last week against a Philly offense that is much more explosive than the one they will see tomorrow night.
Lions had 7 points and 117 passing yards on 10/22 passing in that second game.......
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Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:
That might be because Woodson has lost about 6 steps. I was going to say lost a step, but thats an understatement.
Look at what they have done against comparable receiving corps...like the Lions. Its ugly.
Atlanta played a very, very conservative game against GB the first time. They only had 4 attempts that were over 15 yards all game. They dink and dunked. I cannot imagine them playing that close to the vest again. Take advantage of the favorable matchups at WR/CB. A decent TE can also kill GB and Atl has one of those.
Disagree with ya here a bit buddy.
The Packers defense is quite a bit different than the one the Lions saw 3 months ago when they threw for 332 (on over 50 attempts). They weren't even playing Shields at that time and in recent weeks they have had time to get used to each other and develop chemistry as there hasn't been much shuffling of players because no one else has gotten hurt. They played pretty well last week against a Philly offense that is much more explosive than the one they will see tomorrow night.
Lions had 7 points and 117 passing yards on 10/22 passing in that second game.......
ATL's offense is built on controlling the clock and ball possession. I think they will come out with a similar gameplan and just get Turner to wear down Green Bay's D and set up 3rd and shorts. That's why it's so hard to pick a side in this game because it will probably come down to the last possession.
I agree with this. Although Atlanta may try to air it out more than the first game as they were exceptionally conservative in that one, I don't see them deviating a whole lot from what they've done all year which is run the ball, convert 3rd downs, and chew clock keeping their defense off the field. Why try to air it out deep potentially shortening drives and increasing the risk for turnovers? That puts Aaron Rodgers back on the field against a spotty Falcons defense. Doesn't make sense to me.
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Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:
ATL's offense is built on controlling the clock and ball possession. I think they will come out with a similar gameplan and just get Turner to wear down Green Bay's D and set up 3rd and shorts. That's why it's so hard to pick a side in this game because it will probably come down to the last possession.
I agree with this. Although Atlanta may try to air it out more than the first game as they were exceptionally conservative in that one, I don't see them deviating a whole lot from what they've done all year which is run the ball, convert 3rd downs, and chew clock keeping their defense off the field. Why try to air it out deep potentially shortening drives and increasing the risk for turnovers? That puts Aaron Rodgers back on the field against a spotty Falcons defense. Doesn't make sense to me.
LOL! My old lady actually typed my Pats writeup as I transcribed to her so I can't talk bad about her for a few hoursOf course I'm going to have to take her shopping if my teaser hits. Compromise compromise. GL to you too man. Hate that we're not in agreeance!
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Quote Originally Posted by JohnAlz:
LOL! My old lady actually typed my Pats writeup as I transcribed to her so I can't talk bad about her for a few hoursOf course I'm going to have to take her shopping if my teaser hits. Compromise compromise. GL to you too man. Hate that we're not in agreeance!
I'm also not sure the coaching edge is being properly factored into this game. What Belichick has done with this team is astonishing (to me anyway). They rebuilt their entire offense in season and played almost the whole year with a group on defense that is barely old enough to buy a beer, yet they went 14-2. It's not just the preparation with Belichick, it's the execution. These guys are money in almost every situation when they need a big play or a play that counts. I look at the 45-3 game and the coaching edge is clear. The Jets made several big mistakes (like glyde mentioned, the missed FG, penalties, turnovers), those just aren't the things the Pats do. They will never beat themselves. They are soooooo fundamentally sound. The Jets in my opinion are going to need Patriot mistakes to keep this one close and the Pats rarely make those mistakes. Brady threw 4 picks this year, 4 picks! Green-Ellis and Woodhead have a combined 1 fumble in over 500 career touches. I mean, I guess Brady could come back to earth and make some mistakes but in the postseason, where he is so clutch? I don't know boys.
Another thing with the coaching, just look at the Pats offense and what glyde said with how they basically have Brady with a bunch of undrafted guys and rookies yet they are one of the best units in the NFL. This is almost exactly how the old Patriots used to operate. They didn't have big stars at the skill positions, they had no names. Troy Brown, David Givens, David Patten, Kevin Faulk, Christian Fauria, Deion Branch, Daniel Graham, Corey Dillon, Antione Smith, these are guys with the exception of Dillon that basically did squat elsewhere, they were small guys, and weren't flashy yet they bought into the system in New England and were integral pieces to their success. It is much the same this year, they have a slew of guys like this. Brady has evolved as a passer and as a result the offense is much more efficient and prolific though this year which is a difference from the past Super Bowl teams. The Patriots have bucked the conventional wisdom for years not just with the type of players they've used but also in countless situations where you expect them to have a letdown or play a certain way and they end up doing the exact opposite. Just look at how this offense has performed since ditching Randy Moss: Over that time they have played 8 of the Top 10 defenses in the NFL and have gone 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS and averaged 33 PPG. Crazy, who would have thought that? My god look at the roster! Nothing phases these guys at all.
The Patriots will score and Mark Sanchez will have to make plays. I don't trust him to do that. He's played horribly in his previous trips to Foxboro. We're getting to the point in the year where spotty QB play isn't good enough. Good QB's get you to the playoffs and may even win a game but great QB's get you to the Super Bowl. There's also a lot of talk about the Jets run game being key, but again if you look at the 45-3 game they ran for 152 yards at 4.9 per clip including 80 yards in the first half. How do they get much better? I actually think the Pats run game will be a key. Look at what Green-Ellis and Woodhead have done this year behind an o-line just as good if not better than the Jets: 1555 yards at 4.77 per rush. Compare that to the Tomlinson and Greene at 1680 yards at 4.16 per rush and I'd argue the Pats have just as good of a run game and it is certainly more efficient. So I don't buy the Jets have the better run game.
I have too much respect for this Patriots team this season not to ride them when it matters most as they find themselves in the position they have strived towards at all costs (changing their offense midseason, benching dozens of starters as they continually tried to keep guys on edge and find strong combinations) like animals since last year's postseason loss.
In Bill I trust.
Andy, with shit like this, you are making it mighty hard for me to go the other way. BASTARD! I'm an 0 for the season when we clashed this year as well. That might be the "trend" of the day for Patriots backers.
I'm very interested in your final take on the Packer game. I've been flip-flopping like crazy on this one. I really like this GB squad(which I think is clouding my judgement), and I really do think they beat a slightly overrated Falcons team, but a piece of me inside is saying FALCONS FALCONS FALCONS. That gut instinct is something I rarely overrule too, so I would like to hear your thoughts. I know your take on the Pack, but I got a weird feeling you might be going with the Falcons tomorrow.
I'll be back later tonight. My oxy just kicked in and I'm gonna veg out and watch an episode of Freaks and Geeks.
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
I'm also not sure the coaching edge is being properly factored into this game. What Belichick has done with this team is astonishing (to me anyway). They rebuilt their entire offense in season and played almost the whole year with a group on defense that is barely old enough to buy a beer, yet they went 14-2. It's not just the preparation with Belichick, it's the execution. These guys are money in almost every situation when they need a big play or a play that counts. I look at the 45-3 game and the coaching edge is clear. The Jets made several big mistakes (like glyde mentioned, the missed FG, penalties, turnovers), those just aren't the things the Pats do. They will never beat themselves. They are soooooo fundamentally sound. The Jets in my opinion are going to need Patriot mistakes to keep this one close and the Pats rarely make those mistakes. Brady threw 4 picks this year, 4 picks! Green-Ellis and Woodhead have a combined 1 fumble in over 500 career touches. I mean, I guess Brady could come back to earth and make some mistakes but in the postseason, where he is so clutch? I don't know boys.
Another thing with the coaching, just look at the Pats offense and what glyde said with how they basically have Brady with a bunch of undrafted guys and rookies yet they are one of the best units in the NFL. This is almost exactly how the old Patriots used to operate. They didn't have big stars at the skill positions, they had no names. Troy Brown, David Givens, David Patten, Kevin Faulk, Christian Fauria, Deion Branch, Daniel Graham, Corey Dillon, Antione Smith, these are guys with the exception of Dillon that basically did squat elsewhere, they were small guys, and weren't flashy yet they bought into the system in New England and were integral pieces to their success. It is much the same this year, they have a slew of guys like this. Brady has evolved as a passer and as a result the offense is much more efficient and prolific though this year which is a difference from the past Super Bowl teams. The Patriots have bucked the conventional wisdom for years not just with the type of players they've used but also in countless situations where you expect them to have a letdown or play a certain way and they end up doing the exact opposite. Just look at how this offense has performed since ditching Randy Moss: Over that time they have played 8 of the Top 10 defenses in the NFL and have gone 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS and averaged 33 PPG. Crazy, who would have thought that? My god look at the roster! Nothing phases these guys at all.
The Patriots will score and Mark Sanchez will have to make plays. I don't trust him to do that. He's played horribly in his previous trips to Foxboro. We're getting to the point in the year where spotty QB play isn't good enough. Good QB's get you to the playoffs and may even win a game but great QB's get you to the Super Bowl. There's also a lot of talk about the Jets run game being key, but again if you look at the 45-3 game they ran for 152 yards at 4.9 per clip including 80 yards in the first half. How do they get much better? I actually think the Pats run game will be a key. Look at what Green-Ellis and Woodhead have done this year behind an o-line just as good if not better than the Jets: 1555 yards at 4.77 per rush. Compare that to the Tomlinson and Greene at 1680 yards at 4.16 per rush and I'd argue the Pats have just as good of a run game and it is certainly more efficient. So I don't buy the Jets have the better run game.
I have too much respect for this Patriots team this season not to ride them when it matters most as they find themselves in the position they have strived towards at all costs (changing their offense midseason, benching dozens of starters as they continually tried to keep guys on edge and find strong combinations) like animals since last year's postseason loss.
In Bill I trust.
Andy, with shit like this, you are making it mighty hard for me to go the other way. BASTARD! I'm an 0 for the season when we clashed this year as well. That might be the "trend" of the day for Patriots backers.
I'm very interested in your final take on the Packer game. I've been flip-flopping like crazy on this one. I really like this GB squad(which I think is clouding my judgement), and I really do think they beat a slightly overrated Falcons team, but a piece of me inside is saying FALCONS FALCONS FALCONS. That gut instinct is something I rarely overrule too, so I would like to hear your thoughts. I know your take on the Pack, but I got a weird feeling you might be going with the Falcons tomorrow.
I'll be back later tonight. My oxy just kicked in and I'm gonna veg out and watch an episode of Freaks and Geeks.
Andy/Glyde/anyone else with a play on the Bears game...what do you guys think of these trends?
- QB's starting their first playoff game are 5-19 SU since 2003 - Home favorites: 1-10 ATS - Jay Cutler is only 1-8 against the spread in his career as a favorite of six points or more (0-3 as -9 or more)
I really like the Bears this weekend, but I found these trends on
another website and they are very one sided. Only thing that's keeping
me from having a big play on the Bears.
They are a concern for me. I don't fully trust Cutler but I think the other matchups and the situation heavily favor the Bears so for me those things are more than enough to counter whatever screw ups Cutler may have.
There's always going to be things in favor of the other side of the game you're betting.
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Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:
Andy/Glyde/anyone else with a play on the Bears game...what do you guys think of these trends?
- QB's starting their first playoff game are 5-19 SU since 2003 - Home favorites: 1-10 ATS - Jay Cutler is only 1-8 against the spread in his career as a favorite of six points or more (0-3 as -9 or more)
I really like the Bears this weekend, but I found these trends on
another website and they are very one sided. Only thing that's keeping
me from having a big play on the Bears.
They are a concern for me. I don't fully trust Cutler but I think the other matchups and the situation heavily favor the Bears so for me those things are more than enough to counter whatever screw ups Cutler may have.
There's always going to be things in favor of the other side of the game you're betting.
One stat to watch out for in the GB/Atl game is YPC. GB is giving up 4.7 yards per carry on avg. which could bode very well for Michael Turner who is the key to the Falcons offense.
That is true but like I mentioned last week I think Cullen Jenkins has a big impact on those numbers. Jenkins missed 5 games this season (the last 4 in the regular season and one in Week 7) and in
those games he missed the Packers surrendered an average of 140 yards
rushing at 5.22 yards per attempt. Compare that to the 11 games he
played where the Pack gave up 103.55 yards rushing at 4.36 yards per
attempt.
Jenkins returned last week against Philly and although the Pack tried to limit his snaps he still proved to be somewhat of an influence as the Pack held a Philly team that averaged 145 rush yards a game at 5.4 per rush in the regular season to 81 yards rush at 3.9 per rush last week.
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Quote Originally Posted by bigslickk:
One stat to watch out for in the GB/Atl game is YPC. GB is giving up 4.7 yards per carry on avg. which could bode very well for Michael Turner who is the key to the Falcons offense.
That is true but like I mentioned last week I think Cullen Jenkins has a big impact on those numbers. Jenkins missed 5 games this season (the last 4 in the regular season and one in Week 7) and in
those games he missed the Packers surrendered an average of 140 yards
rushing at 5.22 yards per attempt. Compare that to the 11 games he
played where the Pack gave up 103.55 yards rushing at 4.36 yards per
attempt.
Jenkins returned last week against Philly and although the Pack tried to limit his snaps he still proved to be somewhat of an influence as the Pack held a Philly team that averaged 145 rush yards a game at 5.4 per rush in the regular season to 81 yards rush at 3.9 per rush last week.
I'm not sure anyone can stop Roddy. #1 WR are very rarely stopped although they can be contained. Not sure how they played him in the first meeting but he had just 5 catches for 49 yards. Falcons threw 28 times.
Couple injury notes for this one:
Green Bay's starting center missed practice the first two days this week and only practiced in a limited capacity today. He's listed as questionable.
Atlanta's nickle corner Brain Williams did not practice all week with a knee problem. He's listed as doubtful.
Just a side note....He probably will play but......When I was a rookie in handicapping I would dismiss a missing Center as a low level factor.....to almost a non-factor......I would remember my father sitting with me watching the game telling me preaching the importance of a center........As a more veteran capper now I realize that a missing center is CRITICAL.....(this may have seemed obvious to some of you noobs but it wasnt to me back in the day)
A missing center contributes to 1-2 turnovers a game(fumbled snaps, giving the ball to the QB unexpectedly), 1-6 false starts per game (not knowing the snap count due to lack of practice) and 1-5 sacks during the game (confusing blocking assignments and not seeing and pointing out obvious blitzers)
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
I'm not sure anyone can stop Roddy. #1 WR are very rarely stopped although they can be contained. Not sure how they played him in the first meeting but he had just 5 catches for 49 yards. Falcons threw 28 times.
Couple injury notes for this one:
Green Bay's starting center missed practice the first two days this week and only practiced in a limited capacity today. He's listed as questionable.
Atlanta's nickle corner Brain Williams did not practice all week with a knee problem. He's listed as doubtful.
Just a side note....He probably will play but......When I was a rookie in handicapping I would dismiss a missing Center as a low level factor.....to almost a non-factor......I would remember my father sitting with me watching the game telling me preaching the importance of a center........As a more veteran capper now I realize that a missing center is CRITICAL.....(this may have seemed obvious to some of you noobs but it wasnt to me back in the day)
A missing center contributes to 1-2 turnovers a game(fumbled snaps, giving the ball to the QB unexpectedly), 1-6 false starts per game (not knowing the snap count due to lack of practice) and 1-5 sacks during the game (confusing blocking assignments and not seeing and pointing out obvious blitzers)
NE, I'm not really a trend guy. I'm pretty serious with my gambling and I put a lot into reaching my goal every year in MLB and NFL, so I do everything in my power to have an open mind on EVERY aspect of a game. But if I really dig a team(Seattle is an example last week) after doing my capping, you can give me 101 trends on why New Orleans were the bet, and I'll almost always ignore it. A friend of mine who is a trend guy always tells me I am stubborn and it is my weakness, but I don't know.....I just value different things a lot more.
That being said, those are some pertinent stats/trends, and if I was kinda so-so about the game or maybe leaning Seattle but not enough to bet, those things right there just might be enough to sway me from a lean to a wager.
Well said bro.
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
NE, I'm not really a trend guy. I'm pretty serious with my gambling and I put a lot into reaching my goal every year in MLB and NFL, so I do everything in my power to have an open mind on EVERY aspect of a game. But if I really dig a team(Seattle is an example last week) after doing my capping, you can give me 101 trends on why New Orleans were the bet, and I'll almost always ignore it. A friend of mine who is a trend guy always tells me I am stubborn and it is my weakness, but I don't know.....I just value different things a lot more.
That being said, those are some pertinent stats/trends, and if I was kinda so-so about the game or maybe leaning Seattle but not enough to bet, those things right there just might be enough to sway me from a lean to a wager.
Andy, with shit like this, you are making it mighty hard for me to go the other way. BASTARD! I'm an 0 for the season when we clashed this year as well. That might be the "trend" of the day for Patriots backers.
I'm very interested in your final take on the Packer game. I've been flip-flopping like crazy on this one. I really like this GB squad(which I think is clouding my judgement), and I really do think they beat a slightly overrated Falcons team, but a piece of me inside is saying FALCONS FALCONS FALCONS. That gut instinct is something I rarely overrule too, so I would like to hear your thoughts. I know your take on the Pack, but I got a weird feeling you might be going with the Falcons tomorrow.
I'll be back later tonight. My oxy just kicked in and I'm gonna veg out and watch an episode of Freaks and Geeks.
Glyde I have to hand it to you bro you really wrote a compelling writeup on the Jets. If I hadn't been so into the "New England are rabid dogs this year" angle I would look at the Jets based on what you wrote. It really was good stuff.
The h2h record this year is just making up for last year when I am pretty certain I went 0-fer against you.
As far as Green Bay goes, I will still bet them. I have to admit though they have looked less appealing as the week has gone on. The fact the Falcons are at home is scary. The fact Atlanta has a great special teams unit is scary. The fact Atlanta is so fundamentally sound is scary. The fact my gut is screaming that Mike McCarthy is going to fuck up in his game management is scary. But at the end of the day there is just something about this Packers bunch that has gotten to me and I am one stubborn SOB when it comes to jumping off a team I have been riding. I wrote after they played the Patriots and showed so much heart and guts that I thought they would make a run to the Super Bowl and now with 2 games left I don't think I can abandon that train of thought even though my hope of a 35-40 unit rollover have gone up in smoke. I've also thought Atlanta was a fraud all year (and yep, it's burned me big!) so here in the playoffs against a hot team I'm not sure I can abandon that thought either. I'd rather lose betting on Green Bay than pass on the game because if the Packers did win I would be pissed. I was pissed last week after Seattle won and I didn't bet them after trashing the Saints during the lead up to the game saying I thought they weren't the same team as last year and would soon slip up.
Just my opinion but I may be influenced by the man crush I have developed on Aaron Rodgers.
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Andy, with shit like this, you are making it mighty hard for me to go the other way. BASTARD! I'm an 0 for the season when we clashed this year as well. That might be the "trend" of the day for Patriots backers.
I'm very interested in your final take on the Packer game. I've been flip-flopping like crazy on this one. I really like this GB squad(which I think is clouding my judgement), and I really do think they beat a slightly overrated Falcons team, but a piece of me inside is saying FALCONS FALCONS FALCONS. That gut instinct is something I rarely overrule too, so I would like to hear your thoughts. I know your take on the Pack, but I got a weird feeling you might be going with the Falcons tomorrow.
I'll be back later tonight. My oxy just kicked in and I'm gonna veg out and watch an episode of Freaks and Geeks.
Glyde I have to hand it to you bro you really wrote a compelling writeup on the Jets. If I hadn't been so into the "New England are rabid dogs this year" angle I would look at the Jets based on what you wrote. It really was good stuff.
The h2h record this year is just making up for last year when I am pretty certain I went 0-fer against you.
As far as Green Bay goes, I will still bet them. I have to admit though they have looked less appealing as the week has gone on. The fact the Falcons are at home is scary. The fact Atlanta has a great special teams unit is scary. The fact Atlanta is so fundamentally sound is scary. The fact my gut is screaming that Mike McCarthy is going to fuck up in his game management is scary. But at the end of the day there is just something about this Packers bunch that has gotten to me and I am one stubborn SOB when it comes to jumping off a team I have been riding. I wrote after they played the Patriots and showed so much heart and guts that I thought they would make a run to the Super Bowl and now with 2 games left I don't think I can abandon that train of thought even though my hope of a 35-40 unit rollover have gone up in smoke. I've also thought Atlanta was a fraud all year (and yep, it's burned me big!) so here in the playoffs against a hot team I'm not sure I can abandon that thought either. I'd rather lose betting on Green Bay than pass on the game because if the Packers did win I would be pissed. I was pissed last week after Seattle won and I didn't bet them after trashing the Saints during the lead up to the game saying I thought they weren't the same team as last year and would soon slip up.
Just my opinion but I may be influenced by the man crush I have developed on Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers defense is quite a bit different than the one the Lions saw 3 months ago when they threw for 332 (on over 50 attempts). They weren't even playing Shields at that time and in recent weeks they have had time to get used to each other and develop chemistry as there hasn't been much shuffling of players because no one else has gotten hurt. They played pretty well last week against a Philly offense that is much more explosive than the one they will see tomorrow night.
Lions had 7 points and 117 passing yards on 10/22 passing in that second game.......
You are probably right....but also there was a putz playing quarterback for Detroit that game. I had big money on Detroit that day and watching him not be able to do anything other than scramble was terrible. Some of it was obviously the Pack, but it was completely his modus operandi, he cant pass against anyone. So I cannot give them that much credit for that one - but again, you are probably right as I am understating how good they are.
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Disagree with ya here a bit buddy.
The Packers defense is quite a bit different than the one the Lions saw 3 months ago when they threw for 332 (on over 50 attempts). They weren't even playing Shields at that time and in recent weeks they have had time to get used to each other and develop chemistry as there hasn't been much shuffling of players because no one else has gotten hurt. They played pretty well last week against a Philly offense that is much more explosive than the one they will see tomorrow night.
Lions had 7 points and 117 passing yards on 10/22 passing in that second game.......
You are probably right....but also there was a putz playing quarterback for Detroit that game. I had big money on Detroit that day and watching him not be able to do anything other than scramble was terrible. Some of it was obviously the Pack, but it was completely his modus operandi, he cant pass against anyone. So I cannot give them that much credit for that one - but again, you are probably right as I am understating how good they are.
Just a side note....He probably will play but......When I was a rookie in handicapping I would dismiss a missing Center as a low level factor.....to almost a non-factor......I would remember my father sitting with me watching the game telling me preaching the importance of a center........As a more veteran capper now I realize that a missing center is CRITICAL.....(this may have seemed obvious to some of you noobs but it wasnt to me back in the day)
A missing center contributes to 1-2 turnovers a game(fumbled snaps, giving the ball to the QB unexpectedly), 1-6 false starts per game (not knowing the snap count due to lack of practice) and 1-5 sacks during the game (confusing blocking assignments and not seeing and pointing out obvious blitzers)
Absolutely. It really is huge when the center goes out. I have learned this as well that's why I was so scared when I looked at the injury report.
Lets hope he plays (if you're on GB). Although if I'm not mistaken his replacement was actually the regular starter at center earlier in the year so at least there is some experience there and they wouldn't be shifting another starter over to center and juggling the o-line.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bruuuuce78:
Just a side note....He probably will play but......When I was a rookie in handicapping I would dismiss a missing Center as a low level factor.....to almost a non-factor......I would remember my father sitting with me watching the game telling me preaching the importance of a center........As a more veteran capper now I realize that a missing center is CRITICAL.....(this may have seemed obvious to some of you noobs but it wasnt to me back in the day)
A missing center contributes to 1-2 turnovers a game(fumbled snaps, giving the ball to the QB unexpectedly), 1-6 false starts per game (not knowing the snap count due to lack of practice) and 1-5 sacks during the game (confusing blocking assignments and not seeing and pointing out obvious blitzers)
Absolutely. It really is huge when the center goes out. I have learned this as well that's why I was so scared when I looked at the injury report.
Lets hope he plays (if you're on GB). Although if I'm not mistaken his replacement was actually the regular starter at center earlier in the year so at least there is some experience there and they wouldn't be shifting another starter over to center and juggling the o-line.
Absolutely. It really is huge when the center goes out. I have learned this as well that's why I was so scared when I looked at the injury report.
Lets hope he plays (if you're on GB). Although if I'm not mistaken his replacement was actually the regular starter at center earlier in the year so at least there is some experience there and they wouldn't be shifting another starter over to center and juggling the o-line.
already on GB.....hope he plays....
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Absolutely. It really is huge when the center goes out. I have learned this as well that's why I was so scared when I looked at the injury report.
Lets hope he plays (if you're on GB). Although if I'm not mistaken his replacement was actually the regular starter at center earlier in the year so at least there is some experience there and they wouldn't be shifting another starter over to center and juggling the o-line.
Andy, with shit like this, you are making it mighty hard for me to go the other way. BASTARD! I'm an 0 for the season when we clashed this year as well. That might be the "trend" of the day for Patriots backers.
I'm very interested in your final take on the Packer game. I've been flip-flopping like crazy on this one. I really like this GB squad(which I think is clouding my judgement), and I really do think they beat a slightly overrated Falcons team, but a piece of me inside is saying FALCONS FALCONS FALCONS. That gut instinct is something I rarely overrule too, so I would like to hear your thoughts. I know your take on the Pack, but I got a weird feeling you might be going with the Falcons tomorrow.
I'll be back later tonight. My oxy just kicked in and I'm gonna veg out and watch an episode of Freaks and Geeks.
One of the best freakin shows ever! I have used a few episodes in teaching situations. It shows high school like no other show ever has. Judd Apatow at his finest!
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Andy, with shit like this, you are making it mighty hard for me to go the other way. BASTARD! I'm an 0 for the season when we clashed this year as well. That might be the "trend" of the day for Patriots backers.
I'm very interested in your final take on the Packer game. I've been flip-flopping like crazy on this one. I really like this GB squad(which I think is clouding my judgement), and I really do think they beat a slightly overrated Falcons team, but a piece of me inside is saying FALCONS FALCONS FALCONS. That gut instinct is something I rarely overrule too, so I would like to hear your thoughts. I know your take on the Pack, but I got a weird feeling you might be going with the Falcons tomorrow.
I'll be back later tonight. My oxy just kicked in and I'm gonna veg out and watch an episode of Freaks and Geeks.
One of the best freakin shows ever! I have used a few episodes in teaching situations. It shows high school like no other show ever has. Judd Apatow at his finest!
Just a side note....He probably will play but......When I was a rookie in handicapping I would dismiss a missing Center as a low level factor.....to almost a non-factor......I would remember my father sitting with me watching the game telling me preaching the importance of a center........As a more veteran capper now I realize that a missing center is CRITICAL.....(this may have seemed obvious to some of you noobs but it wasnt to me back in the day)
A missing center contributes to 1-2 turnovers a game(fumbled snaps, giving the ball to the QB unexpectedly), 1-6 false starts per game (not knowing the snap count due to lack of practice) and 1-5 sacks during the game (confusing blocking assignments and not seeing and pointing out obvious blitzers)
Haha, I remember about 10 years ago when I thought I knew it all. I was 20-21 years old, thought I knew it all because I was gambling since I was 12(also collected for a local in my high school/college days and had access to their accts so I was a little ahead of the curve for my age), and LOVED a certain game. An old grizzled veteran met me in a bar with cash and I told him how my LOCK was so and so -6.5 points. He explained that their center twisted an ankle in practice, it was gonna disrupt their offense, and he was unloading the other way because of that very thing. I laughed it off and said big fucking deal old man. Next day my team played well, probably deserved to win and cover easily, but why didn't they? The backup center had 3 false starts(one of them at a huge junction of the game), and allowed 3 sacks(two of them causing my QB to fumble and lose the ball).
I learned right then and there that the C is quite possibly the 2nd most important piece of an offense.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bruuuuce78:
Just a side note....He probably will play but......When I was a rookie in handicapping I would dismiss a missing Center as a low level factor.....to almost a non-factor......I would remember my father sitting with me watching the game telling me preaching the importance of a center........As a more veteran capper now I realize that a missing center is CRITICAL.....(this may have seemed obvious to some of you noobs but it wasnt to me back in the day)
A missing center contributes to 1-2 turnovers a game(fumbled snaps, giving the ball to the QB unexpectedly), 1-6 false starts per game (not knowing the snap count due to lack of practice) and 1-5 sacks during the game (confusing blocking assignments and not seeing and pointing out obvious blitzers)
Haha, I remember about 10 years ago when I thought I knew it all. I was 20-21 years old, thought I knew it all because I was gambling since I was 12(also collected for a local in my high school/college days and had access to their accts so I was a little ahead of the curve for my age), and LOVED a certain game. An old grizzled veteran met me in a bar with cash and I told him how my LOCK was so and so -6.5 points. He explained that their center twisted an ankle in practice, it was gonna disrupt their offense, and he was unloading the other way because of that very thing. I laughed it off and said big fucking deal old man. Next day my team played well, probably deserved to win and cover easily, but why didn't they? The backup center had 3 false starts(one of them at a huge junction of the game), and allowed 3 sacks(two of them causing my QB to fumble and lose the ball).
I learned right then and there that the C is quite possibly the 2nd most important piece of an offense.
As far as Green Bay goes, I will still bet them. I have to admit though they have looked less appealing as the week has gone on. The fact the Falcons are at home is scary. The fact Atlanta has a great special teams unit is scary. The fact Atlanta is so fundamentally sound is scary. The fact my gut is screaming that Mike McCarthy is going to fuck up in his game management is scary. But at the end of the day there is just something about this Packers bunch that has gotten to me and I am one stubborn SOB when it comes to jumping off a team I have been riding. I wrote after they played the Patriots and showed so much heart and guts that I thought they would make a run to the Super Bowl and now with 2 games left I don't think I can abandon that train of thought even though my hope of a 35-40 unit rollover have gone up in smoke. I've also thought Atlanta was a fraud all year (and yep, it's burned me big!) so here in the playoffs against a hot team I'm not sure I can abandon that thought either. I'd rather lose betting on Green Bay than pass on the game because if the Packers did win I would be pissed. I was pissed last week after Seattle won and I didn't bet them after trashing the Saints during the lead up to the game saying I thought they weren't the same team as last year and would soon slip up.
Just my opinion but I may be influenced by the man crush I have developed on Aaron Rodgers.
What I bolded on your post is why I just decided to lock up my final bets for the week(specifically GB, but I took care of the Jets while I was at it because I don't think the line gets any better). I hope to Christ being in a giant rush doesn't cost me a bad line on GB like last week with the Colts(I would have murdered someone if the Colts held on by 2 points and 1.5 was available for hours before kickoff).
I've been calling the Falcons a fraud all year. GB is a team that I think has the tools to win it all. They are playing each other. Why box out now, right?
1/2 unit Packers +2. Half a unit Packers ML +115. 1/3 unit to win one unit Jets ML +325.
So final card for the weekend......
Pack +2(half unit) Pack ML +115(half unit) Jets ML +325(1/3 unit to win 1 unit) Chicago -10(1 unit) Pittsburgh -3(1 unit)
As always good luck, great fucking insight, thanks for letting me chime in your thread, and kill em this weekend!
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
As far as Green Bay goes, I will still bet them. I have to admit though they have looked less appealing as the week has gone on. The fact the Falcons are at home is scary. The fact Atlanta has a great special teams unit is scary. The fact Atlanta is so fundamentally sound is scary. The fact my gut is screaming that Mike McCarthy is going to fuck up in his game management is scary. But at the end of the day there is just something about this Packers bunch that has gotten to me and I am one stubborn SOB when it comes to jumping off a team I have been riding. I wrote after they played the Patriots and showed so much heart and guts that I thought they would make a run to the Super Bowl and now with 2 games left I don't think I can abandon that train of thought even though my hope of a 35-40 unit rollover have gone up in smoke. I've also thought Atlanta was a fraud all year (and yep, it's burned me big!) so here in the playoffs against a hot team I'm not sure I can abandon that thought either. I'd rather lose betting on Green Bay than pass on the game because if the Packers did win I would be pissed. I was pissed last week after Seattle won and I didn't bet them after trashing the Saints during the lead up to the game saying I thought they weren't the same team as last year and would soon slip up.
Just my opinion but I may be influenced by the man crush I have developed on Aaron Rodgers.
What I bolded on your post is why I just decided to lock up my final bets for the week(specifically GB, but I took care of the Jets while I was at it because I don't think the line gets any better). I hope to Christ being in a giant rush doesn't cost me a bad line on GB like last week with the Colts(I would have murdered someone if the Colts held on by 2 points and 1.5 was available for hours before kickoff).
I've been calling the Falcons a fraud all year. GB is a team that I think has the tools to win it all. They are playing each other. Why box out now, right?
1/2 unit Packers +2. Half a unit Packers ML +115. 1/3 unit to win one unit Jets ML +325.
So final card for the weekend......
Pack +2(half unit) Pack ML +115(half unit) Jets ML +325(1/3 unit to win 1 unit) Chicago -10(1 unit) Pittsburgh -3(1 unit)
As always good luck, great fucking insight, thanks for letting me chime in your thread, and kill em this weekend!
Wow crazy line movement in the Packers game, what do you guys make of this? The action is close to 50/50 so I don't see why the sudden huge movement to PK almost.
I just locked up a 2 team teaser for 15 Units...very big play for me. Got Packers at +10 and Patriots at -2....for some reason Bodog still has Packers at +3.
Also playing: Balty +4 for 2 units Bears -9.5 for 2 units Packers ML (+115) for 1 unit Pats -2/Ravens +10.5 teaser for 2 units
GL to all you guys
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Wow crazy line movement in the Packers game, what do you guys make of this? The action is close to 50/50 so I don't see why the sudden huge movement to PK almost.
I just locked up a 2 team teaser for 15 Units...very big play for me. Got Packers at +10 and Patriots at -2....for some reason Bodog still has Packers at +3.
Also playing: Balty +4 for 2 units Bears -9.5 for 2 units Packers ML (+115) for 1 unit Pats -2/Ravens +10.5 teaser for 2 units
One of the best freakin shows ever! I have used a few episodes in teaching situations. It shows high school like no other show ever has. Judd Apatow at his finest!
Yea man, fucking shame it got cancelled after only one season.
0
Quote Originally Posted by mickjam:
One of the best freakin shows ever! I have used a few episodes in teaching situations. It shows high school like no other show ever has. Judd Apatow at his finest!
Yea man, fucking shame it got cancelled after only one season.
Andy, with shit like this, you are making it mighty hard for me to go the other way. BASTARD! I'm an 0 for the season when we clashed this year as well. That might be the "trend" of the day for Patriots backers.
I'm very interested in your final take on the Packer game. I've been flip-flopping like crazy on this one. I really like this GB squad(which I think is clouding my judgement), and I really do think they beat a slightly overrated Falcons team, but a piece of me inside is saying FALCONS FALCONS FALCONS. That gut instinct is something I rarely overrule too, so I would like to hear your thoughts. I know your take on the Pack, but I got a weird feeling you might be going with the Falcons tomorrow.
I'll be back later tonight. My oxy just kicked in and I'm gonna veg out and watch an episode of Freaks and Geeks.
Ahhhhh those were the days. Nodding off in the most awkward situations. Had to give em up. Enjoy it
0
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Andy, with shit like this, you are making it mighty hard for me to go the other way. BASTARD! I'm an 0 for the season when we clashed this year as well. That might be the "trend" of the day for Patriots backers.
I'm very interested in your final take on the Packer game. I've been flip-flopping like crazy on this one. I really like this GB squad(which I think is clouding my judgement), and I really do think they beat a slightly overrated Falcons team, but a piece of me inside is saying FALCONS FALCONS FALCONS. That gut instinct is something I rarely overrule too, so I would like to hear your thoughts. I know your take on the Pack, but I got a weird feeling you might be going with the Falcons tomorrow.
I'll be back later tonight. My oxy just kicked in and I'm gonna veg out and watch an episode of Freaks and Geeks.
Ahhhhh those were the days. Nodding off in the most awkward situations. Had to give em up. Enjoy it
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and things just flowed good in his threads. Not to mention a helluva lot more people visit his threads, so more views=more convo=more results. A lot of people like to knock Covers because of it's zoolike atmosphere, but underneath the horseshit, there is a lot of valuable information available. I try to give a little bit for all the good shit I've taken the last half a decade.
Of course I'm going to have to take her shopping if my teaser hits. Compromise compromise. GL to you too man. Hate that we're not in agreeance!
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