Ok, the Pats vs the Jets.
I'm not super confident in my Jets lean, and by no means do I LOVE them here, but I do think this is gonna be a physical, hard fought, and competitive game where 9 points is just too many points to consider the chalk.
The trash talk. I'm not a big fan of it. Now personally, I think it is the silliest fucking thing if a player makes a comment and then all week people and the media talk about it hyping up the other team and how it is bulletin board marerial, yada yada, yada. I think most of the time it is a load of shit. This week is a whole different story. The Jets are taking it to a new level and while I think it is a bit bushleague and kinda emabarrassing to an NFL organization, I do think there is method to Ryan's madness. Like Remy said, part of it definitely takes the talk of the town(in this case NY) AWAY from last week's subpar showing and Sanchez's subpar play, but I also believe the over the top shit talk has shifted the pressure of the Jets on this game squarely to the Pats which I didn't think was possible. Everyone from Bill to Brady and back got an extra hard-on right now for the Jets and they GOTTA be pushing for a massacre. I could be dead wrong, but as childish as this little war is getting, I think Rex served his purpose.
The 45-3 MNF rout. From what I've been reading from a few cappers I respect, I am gonna be in the minority here, but I believe you throw that fucking game completely out. I was wrongly on the Jets that night, and in retrospect it was a bad bet. The Jets were coming off a string of unlikely comeback wins in prior weeks, and once the Pats turned on the heat, they played like a team that thought things would just fall to them like in the past. They were wrong. I believe that game was over before it started so 17-3 or 45-3, I kinda throw that game to the side. One mistake after another early in that game buried this team. From Ryan going for a 92 yard FG with the game 3-0(and giving the Pats incredible field position) instead of using Rutherford to pin them back was mistake number 1. That alone would have changed this game majorly(big imo). Then there was the huge bone headed pass interference, quick TD. Then the Jets shanked a punt that went like 10 yards. Then they allowed the Pats to convert a 3rd and a mile. Then on 4th down they give up a 25 yard TD. Sprinkle in a couple of blown coverages, and it is 24-3 at halftime. On top of that, I STILL think it was a game at that point. Jets start the half and march down to the 10 yard line only for Sanchez to throw a pick. Ok, I'm lost in memory lane, but my point is I think too much is being placed on that one game that I believe was a freak kind of game. That was also the week that Leonhard was first missing so that did play a part in how things played out.
Matchups. I have been seeing a lot of talk lately that the Jets don't match up well with the Pats. Shit, the way the Pats have been playing lately apparently the way to build a superteam is to have Tom Brady at the helm of an offense of 2nd stringers comprised of small fast white guys and a couple of rookie tight ends and no one can stop it. Might as well concede the game! I don't believe it. If I am wrong come Sunday night, I will be the first to admit it, but I refuse to believe that person dink and dunk offense cannot be gameplanned from a team with the talent and coaching of a team like the Jets. The linebackers all have to step up. Revis has to find a way to make an impact more than "shutting down" WR1 up at the top of the field(shit, if Brady not gonna look Revi's way, blitz the motherfucker, or bring him inside to help on Gron and Aaron). Their blitzes have to get home and rattle Brady. The safeties have to play as good as they played last week. THEY CAN SLOW DOWN THIS TEAM.
On offense, obviously the better they run, the less Brady is on the field. Sanchez has to step his shit up and convert on 3rd down. The WR's cannot drop balls. I think Keller is going to be a big key for the Jet offense. He can definitely get seperation on the Pat linebackers and he will have the chance to do damage with YAC assuming Sanchez can get him the ball. Greene is gonna have to get some hard yards in the middle, and LT has to make magic happen on quick swing passes. Time to play to your potential, boys. And Rex, if you get the choice to kick a 53 yard FG early in the game, or possibly pin NE back to the 10 or beyond, PUNT THE BALL.
I feel like I am degenerating into a lot "If the Jets do this" or "if the Jets can" shit, so I'm gonna stop now. Bottom line, I think we have a game come Sunday, and I will defintely NOT be laying 9 with New England(although I think the line drops a bunch more so whatever decision I make regarding the Jets will have to be soon). One other thing that cracks me up is this new talk about how the Jet D isn't any good. They give up something like 290 total yards a game and they just made the mighty Peyton Manning look like a total box(never saw him play not to lose in my life until last week).
As for actually betting this game......Like I said, I feel the line continues to float down and I wouldn't be surprised in seeing a 7.5 number by Sunday, so I have to make a move SOON if I'm gonna be backing the Jets. I'm not a tease guy, and I am rarely a ML guy(especially with teams on the road), but I believe that Jets ML or teasing them to 14.5 is the best way to go. Jets ML would allow me to only risk a 1/3 of a unit or so to win a unit, so a loss isn't so bad in the scheme of things. Teasing them to 14.5 is also an option and it fits well with the 4th game of the weekend(Pack-Atlanta). I truly think the Pack are the better team and should win this, but something in my gut is SCREAMING to go with the Falcons, so I was thinking of staying away from the game. Doing a Jets +14.5/ Packers +8.5 teaser gets me over a key number in both games, and gives me a little action outside of the Pitt and Bear games which I really like. Still up in the air though. Gonna crunch the Pack game, and hopefully make a decision before I leave work in a few hours.
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