Posted:
#26
Quality Run....
Monday
Posted:
#28
Amd is the most insightful capper on covers, he gives you real stats not feel bets or spot bets. I also agree amd the saints used to be an autoplay for me at home after a loss, especially a bad one, but im not so sure anymore. Jason garrett of all people said it best if you listened to his post game conference he talked about making the saints beat them on the outside (where brees struggles because of lack of arm strength). That saint defense is absolutely abysmal and obviously there's infighting between ryan and payton, but it's more than just their d being bad, the offense is struggling because they a. have a bad o line, b. can't run the ball, and c. have no good rb receivers out of the back field unlike in years past when they had reggie bush and sproles.
Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by ScumbagSteve:
Gronk IS healthy now and will be the X factor in this game. The Chiefs passing attack will be somewhat productive, but I don't see Alex Smith taking over in a shootout against Brady. All those stats about NE are out the window once you have Gronk in the redzone. Expect his snap count to be up from last week.
If you've watched the patriots this year youll know that gronk is anything but healthy. In fact i said this before their game vs. the raiders in which i backed an abysmal raider team just because of the fact that new england can't score the football right now. The one game where they eclipsed 20 points was vs. minnesota and about 24 of those points were gifted to them via matt cassell and awful minnesota special teams. Gronkowski is a total shell of what he used to be, he's 20 pounds lighter and not in a good way, he's also 3 steps slower. Don't get me wrong the pats are a good enough football team all around (and much better defensively than people think ) to still cover against this mediocre kc squad, but i think taking the points here at home vs. a bad offensive football team is the only way to go.
Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by amd:
the key element in this MNF matchup is the Patriots offensive line, your assessment is justified, and bares merit to a +3.5 KC cover, the ground game, and the UNDER prevail....
As a Patriots backer, I would hope his snap count would be up this week because you had a guy by the name of Hoomanawanui that had more snaps than Gronk last week. And, sorry, I disagree with Gronk Being x factor tonight. How can a guy who only saw 55% of the snaps on offense last week be an x factor tonight? KC'S lbs are athletic and they can run with New England's tight ends. KC held Miami 's Charles Clay in check last week as well as the Titans, Delaney Walker and Denver's Julius Thomas. Thomas did score a td but his yds were still contained. I suppose you can spin the stats any way you'd like but the stats don't lie. If NE has a gameplan to protect Brady then Brady might give you another ho hum win but, honestly, the X factor will be KC'S 3rd down conversion. If they can move the ball, they'll win this game because KC'S defense will match up well against the Patriots O line.
Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Thanks for the advice regarding the Saints. I'll tread lightly. Week 4 is when the real teams start to show up, or those that are serious about making a run (GB, SF, Indi, Giants, Det, etc...). Meanwhile the Saints laid an egg on national tv. Embarrassment can be a huge motivator (as we saw with Tampa today), and the Saints were embarrassed, so we will see. As for the Niners being better off with Smith, this is a topic of much debate among my bay area friends:) The way I see it, they'd be better off with Alex for the regular season but then would need Kap's explosiveness and big play potential for the playoffs. I can see Alex getting by most NFC teams but not Seattle.
I couldn't agree more about kapernick. As much as his decision making and lack of accuracy annoys the crap out of me, his uncanny freakish athleticism and cannon for an arm are unparalleled and that's why i still believe sf is a serious threat to seattle. Having said that because of his lack of accuracy and brain stalls they could also lose to a team like detroit or the giants.
Posted:
#33
What's up AMD. I like your plays. I was leaning on every single one of your plays except the panthers, and look where that got me. Lol.
Anyway, I think KC wins this one SU barring any injury. The passes Brady throws have been Manning-esque in a sense that it has lost a little life and becoming more like ducks, causing the dropped passes. Add to that the fact that the KC D improving game by game, and I think the safer play is UNDER.
KC wins, 19-13.
Anyway, I think KC wins this one SU barring any injury. The passes Brady throws have been Manning-esque in a sense that it has lost a little life and becoming more like ducks, causing the dropped passes. Add to that the fact that the KC D improving game by game, and I think the safer play is UNDER.
KC wins, 19-13.
Posted:
#34
Rg3 .... The way you talkin about the saints got me worried about my fantasy leauge .... I got both drew breezzzy and Brandon cooks in all 4 of my fantasy leauge and mr. Breezy hasn't done much.
....as for me being a big pats fan ... This team is not going anywhere ....Brady is done with out a great o-line he once had. Chiefs +3.5 
....as for me being a big pats fan ... This team is not going anywhere ....Brady is done with out a great o-line he once had. Chiefs +3.5
Posted:
#42
AMD I appreciate your insight and your reference to stats on these teams, however you are forgetting on every import stat on these 2 teams:
I like Pats -2.5 and UNDER 46.5 probably will parlay the 2 for a nice payout.
Turnover Differential- KC has a -5 turnover differential & Pats have a +6 turnover differential.
KC ranks dead last at # 32 and Pats share the tie at #1 with Bengals in this category.
I see this being a very close low scoring game where every yard & possession counts and I think Belicheck focuses on playing that mistake free football and taking away an opponents biggest threat (Charles) that gets them the win. Pats have a very good D as well and I see them running the ball alot themselves and forcing Smith to beat them in the air. Pats will take away Charles and not allow KC to run all over them.
I see a low scoring grinding game Pats can play this style football these days and will make one more play than KC to get the win by a small margin.
I like Pats -2.5 and UNDER 46.5 probably will parlay the 2 for a nice payout. 
Posted:
#44
If you follow the Pats this game comes down to one thing and one thing only - the O - line. Patriots lost their legendary O-line coach this year (retirement) and have a new hard on coach. Mankins refused to practice for him and no one believes in the O-line coach. That's why Mankins was moved - insubordination.
The line is in shambles and it leads to an inability to do anything on offense. They have been unproductive on 1st down and as such the patriots have been forced into 2nd and 3rd and long all year.
If the line can block they can give Brady time and this will look like old patriots again.
Question is whether tonight will be the night they figure it out?
The X factor is rookie lineman Stork who may start tonight.
The line is in shambles and it leads to an inability to do anything on offense. They have been unproductive on 1st down and as such the patriots have been forced into 2nd and 3rd and long all year.
If the line can block they can give Brady time and this will look like old patriots again.
Question is whether tonight will be the night they figure it out?
The X factor is rookie lineman Stork who may start tonight.
Posted:
#45
Monday night football games over the past 3 seasons are at 67% over being hit and past two seasons are at 70% over hitting I don't think I'll pick a side but I believe it hits 50 pretty easily maybe a 28-31 type game both defense have struggled n both have an offense that can put up points if the opportunity is there for sure
Posted:
#50
Quote Originally Posted by amd:
I don't think NE will make this game a high scoring affair and after I read an article by Brad Gagnon from CBS Sports, he provided some useful information that affirmed my play on KC. In 2007, Brady completed a league high 31 completions on throws of at least 20 yards and 16 of those throws went for tds. Last year, Brady had just four deep td passes and only 20 completions over 20 yds. This year, Brady has just one completion over 20 yds in 13 attempts. At 37 yrs of age, the philosophy of New England's offensive scheme has changed. Brady has struggled finding a pocket to throw in because the guard play and center have been a liability on the offensive line. He also doesn't have the weapons on the outside that we are accustomed to watching. Gronk is unhealthy, Thompkins, LaFell and Dobson are all a work in progress. Last year, his receivers dropped 53 passes. No other team had more than 43 dropped passes. So between pass protection issues and dropped passes that include this season, play calling has become more conservative. The Patriots offensive line has allowed more hits (44) on Brady than any team in the NFL through 4 weeks. Because of this, the Patriots have turned to their running game more this season than at any other time in the last decade through the first quarter of the season. Now, the Patriots have to face a 3-4 defense that has excellent pass rushers in Hali and Houston who combined for 22 sacks last season and already have 5 this season, ranking the chiefs pass rush at #2 through the first 3 weeks. Brady ranks 25th out of 31 starting qbs with a completion percentage of 37 percent under duress. The matchup for KCs defense is against Brady and the offensive line is a mismatch. Against KCs blitz packages, opposing qbs have completed just 43 percent of their throws with a meager 74 efficiency rating. As for the KC offense, I like the weapons around Smith. KC expects Charles to be active and Davis has been productive thus far. Bowe is a big threat on the outside who has big play potential as long as the rushing attack finds some holes in which I believe it will. I don't see this game being a shoot out. I look for KC to try and control the clock and get themselves in 3rd and short and continue to pound the rock to convert 3rd downs. I think KC will win this game 24-20
Thanks for the info. BOL. I was wondering if anyone had any info on Andy Reid vs Patriots in the last ten years? The Patriots are great at scheming, and if they have stopped Reid's offense in the past they may be able to do it again.
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