Monday

Kansas City  +3.5  -115

I don't think NE will make this game a high scoring affair and after I read an article by Brad Gagnon from CBS Sports, he provided some useful information that affirmed my play on KC. In 2007, Brady completed a league high 31 completions on throws of at least 20 yards and 16 of those throws went for tds. Last year, Brady had just four deep td passes and only 20 completions over 20 yds. This year, Brady has just one completion over 20 yds in 13 attempts. At 37 yrs of age, the philosophy of New England's offensive scheme has changed. Brady has struggled finding a pocket to throw in because the guard play and center have been a liability on the offensive line. He also doesn't have the weapons on the outside that we are accustomed to watching. Gronk is unhealthy, Thompkins, LaFell and Dobson are all a work in progress. Last year, his receivers dropped 53 passes. No other team had more than 43 dropped passes. So between pass protection issues and dropped passes that include this season, play calling has become more conservative. The Patriots offensive line has allowed more hits (44) on Brady than any team in the NFL through 4 weeks. Because of this, the Patriots have turned to their running game more this season than at any other time in the last decade through the first quarter of the season. Now, the Patriots have to face a 3-4 defense that has excellent pass rushers in Hali and Houston who combined for 22 sacks last season and already have 5 this season, ranking the chiefs pass rush at #2 through the first 3 weeks. Brady ranks 25th out of 31 starting qbs with a completion percentage of 37 percent under duress. The matchup for KCs defense is against Brady and the offensive line is a mismatch. Against KCs blitz packages, opposing qbs have completed just 43 percent of their throws with a meager 74 efficiency rating. As for the KC offense, I like the weapons around Smith. KC expects Charles to be active and Davis has been productive thus far. Bowe is a big threat on the outside who has big play potential as long as the rushing attack finds some holes in which I believe it will. I don't see this game being a shoot out. I look for KC to try and control the clock and get themselves in 3rd and short and continue to pound the rock to convert 3rd downs. I think KC will win this game 24-20

Only two QBs in the league that make me nervous wagering against, Brady and Manning. However, if you look at the statistics that I posted in post #7, it puts this matchup involving Brady into perspective.

It's variable, buddy. I haven't posted my units in the nfl forum because I forgot to do so with my first weeks plays. I'm up a shitt load but as we know, things can change in a hurry. I wager between 3-10 units, no formula, it's what my gut tells me to wager. 

Good luck

ohh, i see. do you think you can post your units so I know which plays you like more?  Appreciate it sir! 

Gronk IS healthy now and will be the X factor in this game. The Chiefs passing attack will be somewhat productive, but I don't see Alex Smith taking over in a shootout against Brady. All those stats about NE are out the window once you have Gronk in the redzone. Expect his snap count to be up from last week.

As a Patriots backer, I would hope his snap count would be up this week because you had a guy by the name of Hoomanawanui that had more snaps than Gronk last week. And, sorry, I disagree with Gronk Being x factor tonight. How can a guy who only saw 55% of the snaps on offense last week be an x factor tonight? KC'S lbs are athletic and they can run with New England's tight ends. KC held Miami 's Charles Clay in check last week as well as the Titans, Delaney Walker and Denver's Julius Thomas. Thomas did score a td but his yds were still contained. I suppose you can spin the stats any way you'd like but the stats don't lie. If NE has a gameplan to protect Brady then Brady might give you another ho hum win but, honestly, the X factor will be KC'S 3rd down conversion. If they can move the ball, they'll win this game because KC'S defense will match up well against the Patriots O line.

Regarding the KC game, I know this might sound strange, but any chance this might be a look-ahead game for Alex Smith? I know it is Monday night and the Patriots but next week he goes back to SF, which is even a bigger deal (for him personally). 

Thanks a lot for your posts. Regarding the Saints, be careful playing them against Tampa. The loss tonight and against Cleveland and Atlanta are more of the norm than anomolies. This team is not a good team on either side of the ball. One would think that a team like Tampa would be good medicine for Nawlins but for the Saints to be laying double digits with their defense that gets carved up every week, I'll pass. It's nothing more than the Drew and Jimmy show down at the Superdome and as we've seen, they need much more help than those two guys. 

As for the look ahead spot and Alex Smith, I would bet that Smith hasn't thought about San Francisco once this week while preparing for NE. If anything, he's preparing to show his stuff in front of the national audience tonight. However, I don't think Smith has to win this game, he just has to be a game manager and not turn the ball over. I like Smiths play, overall. In fact, I think the Niners would be better off with him than Kaepernick. 

Thanks for the advice regarding the Saints. I'll tread lightly. Week 4 is when the real teams start to show up, or those that are serious about making a run (GB, SF, Indi, Giants, Det, etc...). Meanwhile the Saints laid an egg on national tv. Embarrassment can be a huge motivator (as we saw with Tampa today), and the Saints were embarrassed, so we will see. As for the Niners being better off with Smith, this is a topic of much debate among my bay area friends:) The way I see it, they'd be better off with Alex for the regular season but then would need Kap's explosiveness and big play potential for the playoffs. I can see Alex getting by most NFC teams but not Seattle.

I just joined the forum after reading your other thread. I enjoyed your analysis on all your picks. Keep up the good work.

I know you watch as much football as I do and you make sound decisions with your wagers. If the Saints are a play then they're a play, I agree. But for me, the Saints will be situational for me. The oddsmakers will definitely have to adjust before I start jumping on them. As for Kaepernick against the Seahawks, do you know what his regular season and post season record is against them. He's going to have to find that explosiveness that you're talking about because it's been missing. BOL buddy

I love your covers handle buddy, good shitt. Thanks for coming on the site to talk a little football. Wish you the best this season. I'll look for your plays.

I agree, good point. Have a good week, motowner. Red wings fan by chance?