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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Lines dictates the game....

    «First Previous 91011 ... 858687 Next Last»
    HoldingXYZ
    dustyvaultz
    buffalotexan
    thawv
    subpar
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    HoldingXYZ
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 5:45 AM ET #201

    Quote Originally Posted by dustyvaultz:


    the books get money back on games they know their gonna give up like the super bowl for instance i didn't get my bet for balti in time    so i figure to live bet they put out a Balti -4 after the first score i bit that line was at 4 for most of the game Balti wins by three

    I had baltimore their last for games of the season.. All the hype was on SF.. Lewis was retiring... If you youtube raylewis prior to the season he's got millions of promotional hype videos helping kids and so forth... He already knew what was going on.. Manning played his part before sending the ravens to the superbowl.. What i didn't like after the BAL-DEN gave was how ray lewis smacks peyton manning after the game instead of shake his hand... That's pure thug act... And pure im retired so kiss my a s s ... 
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    Quote Originally Posted by dustyvaultz:


    the books get money back on games they know their gonna give up like the super bowl for instance i didn't get my bet for balti in time    so i figure to live bet they put out a Balti -4 after the first score i bit that line was at 4 for most of the game Balti wins by three

    I had baltimore their last for games of the season.. All the hype was on SF.. Lewis was retiring... If you youtube raylewis prior to the season he's got millions of promotional hype videos helping kids and so forth... He already knew what was going on.. Manning played his part before sending the ravens to the superbowl.. What i didn't like after the BAL-DEN gave was how ray lewis smacks peyton manning after the game instead of shake his hand... That's pure thug act... And pure im retired so kiss my a s s ... 
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 5:51 AM ET #202

    Yes the book gets their money back... They can't script them all.. But im sure they will script most of them and leave you with enought to scratch your heads with.. Feed you with a bunch of smoke along the way.. They will give you free bees.. They will throw curve balls.. How else can they keep people guessing? If anything vegas knows the future... You can take that to the bank
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    Yes the book gets their money back... They can't script them all.. But im sure they will script most of them and leave you with enought to scratch your heads with.. Feed you with a bunch of smoke along the way.. They will give you free bees.. They will throw curve balls.. How else can they keep people guessing? If anything vegas knows the future... You can take that to the bank
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 6:02 AM ET #203

    Oh one more thing.. RAY LEWIS WAS WEARING A CAST DURING THE SUPERBOWL.. A CAST ON HIS RIGHT ARM... TELL ME ITS NOT HOLOWEEN.. THOSE ARE THE SIGNS YOU LOOK FOR... NOT EVERYTHING IN THIS WORLD IS SPELLED OUT FOR PEOPLE.. 
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    Oh one more thing.. RAY LEWIS WAS WEARING A CAST DURING THE SUPERBOWL.. A CAST ON HIS RIGHT ARM... TELL ME ITS NOT HOLOWEEN.. THOSE ARE THE SIGNS YOU LOOK FOR... NOT EVERYTHING IN THIS WORLD IS SPELLED OUT FOR PEOPLE.. 
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 6:06 AM ET #204

    NEXT THING YOU KNOW THE ULTIMATE WARRIOR RUNS OUT OF KNOWWHERE AND BODY SLAMS RAY LEWIS MAN.. TALK ABOUT 100000000000 VIEWERS lol.. 
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    NEXT THING YOU KNOW THE ULTIMATE WARRIOR RUNS OUT OF KNOWWHERE AND BODY SLAMS RAY LEWIS MAN.. TALK ABOUT 100000000000 VIEWERS lol.. 
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 6:15 AM ET #205

    THEN... THE LIGHTS SHUT OFF... oooohhh maybe it was holloween.. OR maybe We have entered.. THE TWILIGHT ZONE... DOON DOON, DOON DOON, DOooOn , DOooN Dooon Dooon.. LOL
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    THEN... THE LIGHTS SHUT OFF... oooohhh maybe it was holloween.. OR maybe We have entered.. THE TWILIGHT ZONE... DOON DOON, DOON DOON, DOooOn , DOooN Dooon Dooon.. LOL
     
    dustyvaultz
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 6:17 AM ET #206

    i'm up late and kinda drunk i'm temped to just let the proverbial cat out the bag but it maybe a mafia contract on me by Monday so i'll chill  but you guys really don't understand this thing the night games are for the fans the ticket buyer its a whole euphoria of getting off work or school heading down to the stadium etc but you must realize some teams have been milking it for years and it gets boring for the viewer esp the kids they need their teams of their generations the Bears are going to win in pitt the Steelers are old school back to back big stage losses is like a passing of the torch you couldn't see it happening because your old school have your 8th grader make your picks you'd be better off
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    i'm up late and kinda drunk i'm temped to just let the proverbial cat out the bag but it maybe a mafia contract on me by Monday so i'll chill  but you guys really don't understand this thing the night games are for the fans the ticket buyer its a whole euphoria of getting off work or school heading down to the stadium etc but you must realize some teams have been milking it for years and it gets boring for the viewer esp the kids they need their teams of their generations the Bears are going to win in pitt the Steelers are old school back to back big stage losses is like a passing of the torch you couldn't see it happening because your old school have your 8th grader make your picks you'd be better off
     
    dustyvaultz
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 6:21 AM ET #207

    pay attention to the commercials for big games esp the un edited ones that run at 4;00 sat morn its creepy how subliminal it can be but your really got to be in the zone ok  my UFO is calling me
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    pay attention to the commercials for big games esp the un edited ones that run at 4;00 sat morn its creepy how subliminal it can be but your really got to be in the zone ok  my UFO is calling me
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 6:47 AM ET #208

    Quote Originally Posted by dustyvaultz:

    i'm up late and kinda drunk i'm temped to just let the proverbial cat out the bag but it maybe a mafia contract on me by Monday so i'll chill  but you guys really don't understand this thing the night games are for the fans the ticket buyer its a whole euphoria of getting off work or school heading down to the stadium etc but you must realize some teams have been milking it for years and it gets boring for the viewer esp the kids they need their teams of their generations the Bears are going to win in pitt the Steelers are old school back to back big stage losses is like a passing of the torch you couldn't see it happening because your old school have your 8th grader make your picks you'd be better off

    I think what you say makes alot of sense... There is a grand scheme of all this.. There are episodes.. There are generations.. Commercials do evolve through the generations.. I usually try not to get too focused on the media unless if im trying to find an angle to see where the attention is.. Smaller cities usually are the ones that shock the most people.. Because big cities will always follow their own.. They will also eat the cost of inflated lines... 
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    Quote Originally Posted by dustyvaultz:

    i'm up late and kinda drunk i'm temped to just let the proverbial cat out the bag but it maybe a mafia contract on me by Monday so i'll chill  but you guys really don't understand this thing the night games are for the fans the ticket buyer its a whole euphoria of getting off work or school heading down to the stadium etc but you must realize some teams have been milking it for years and it gets boring for the viewer esp the kids they need their teams of their generations the Bears are going to win in pitt the Steelers are old school back to back big stage losses is like a passing of the torch you couldn't see it happening because your old school have your 8th grader make your picks you'd be better off

    I think what you say makes alot of sense... There is a grand scheme of all this.. There are episodes.. There are generations.. Commercials do evolve through the generations.. I usually try not to get too focused on the media unless if im trying to find an angle to see where the attention is.. Smaller cities usually are the ones that shock the most people.. Because big cities will always follow their own.. They will also eat the cost of inflated lines... 
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 6:50 AM ET #209

    Saying half points don't ever really matter are naive.. When they do matter, be sure to know there's a lopsided play... And hitting it right in the middle is like the lottery.. It is very very hard to make these things look real.. But hey they call them athletes.. I call them employess within a union... 
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    Saying half points don't ever really matter are naive.. When they do matter, be sure to know there's a lopsided play... And hitting it right in the middle is like the lottery.. It is very very hard to make these things look real.. But hey they call them athletes.. I call them employess within a union... 
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 7:16 AM ET #210

    Missed field goal in HD https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nURz04Y9s8
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    Missed field goal in HD https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nURz04Y9s8
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 7:21 AM ET #211

    You scratch mine.. I scratch yours... now look at this act job.. 
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtPP8qEjai4
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    You scratch mine.. I scratch yours... now look at this act job.. 
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtPP8qEjai4
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 7:23 AM ET #212

    Now look at this video.. The summer before the nfl season... 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTbBBfaUS4s
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    Now look at this video.. The summer before the nfl season... 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTbBBfaUS4s
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 7:24 AM ET #213

    Now look this one after manning sends lewis off to the SB... 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVJS4zWwXNs
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    Now look this one after manning sends lewis off to the SB... 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVJS4zWwXNs
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 7:25 AM ET #214

    its not the fact that he smacks manning... Look at that cast hes wearing.. What a WARRIOR LOL
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    its not the fact that he smacks manning... Look at that cast hes wearing.. What a WARRIOR LOL
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 7:34 AM ET #215

    was his cast okay?
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    was his cast okay?
     
    buffalotexan
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 9:06 AM ET #216

    Cannot believe I read most of these posts, but since I did figured I would reply.

    Conspiracy will always exist. Sportsbetting Has various inputs that lend itself to line fixing and I am sure it happens, but that is on the players and refs not vegas or the nfl.

    Couple of reasons for why I say this
    1. The spreads are close because the matchups lend itself to that. For example, you can say that a game will be defensive and come down to fg. Then vegas may set it at 2.5-4. Game hits at 3 as expected. Not sure how this is "fixing". Cle v balt most recently--why wasnt 6-9 the right mark. Cle strong d no real offense And balt not the same team as last year. I took balt but figured it would be close. Tothe guy who had the 35.5 over. To me this sounds like two bad offs or great ds and possessions not scoring was expected. Just because it was 1h v 2h means nothing at the end stat line. 35.5 was probability of each possession scoring v punt v fg. Everything reverts to the mean.

    2. There are bettors who can hit 60 percent on the season. Check any major handicapping contest and winner will be 55-65 percent. Most bet based on spreads they think are .5 to 1point off

    3. Vegas has more data than we do. Not all books have the same lines. Books try to make it 50-50 and not gamble themselves. Think market making of a stock. You dont typically keep inventory. If fixed why would books differ. For example the other week i took no by 4.5 when other books had it at 3--only have one acct. Bad game on my part and my only loss this season. But if you say games are rigged then not sure this happens as often. Someone may try to argue that it is when a book is 70-30 on a game that is when it is rigged but then that assumes all the books are 70-30. I cannot ever see this happening. Remember vegas is not a single entity

    Note with this being said where i think the spread is 7 points off I fade my pick. Havent done so this year yet.


    To all those that think its fixed I suggest fading your own picks. You will be happier in the end as you can tell your buddies "f vegas i beat them". And then You can only blame losses on yourself and not someone else.

    Best of luck all.
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    Cannot believe I read most of these posts, but since I did figured I would reply.

    Conspiracy will always exist. Sportsbetting Has various inputs that lend itself to line fixing and I am sure it happens, but that is on the players and refs not vegas or the nfl.

    Couple of reasons for why I say this
    1. The spreads are close because the matchups lend itself to that. For example, you can say that a game will be defensive and come down to fg. Then vegas may set it at 2.5-4. Game hits at 3 as expected. Not sure how this is "fixing". Cle v balt most recently--why wasnt 6-9 the right mark. Cle strong d no real offense And balt not the same team as last year. I took balt but figured it would be close. Tothe guy who had the 35.5 over. To me this sounds like two bad offs or great ds and possessions not scoring was expected. Just because it was 1h v 2h means nothing at the end stat line. 35.5 was probability of each possession scoring v punt v fg. Everything reverts to the mean.

    2. There are bettors who can hit 60 percent on the season. Check any major handicapping contest and winner will be 55-65 percent. Most bet based on spreads they think are .5 to 1point off

    3. Vegas has more data than we do. Not all books have the same lines. Books try to make it 50-50 and not gamble themselves. Think market making of a stock. You dont typically keep inventory. If fixed why would books differ. For example the other week i took no by 4.5 when other books had it at 3--only have one acct. Bad game on my part and my only loss this season. But if you say games are rigged then not sure this happens as often. Someone may try to argue that it is when a book is 70-30 on a game that is when it is rigged but then that assumes all the books are 70-30. I cannot ever see this happening. Remember vegas is not a single entity

    Note with this being said where i think the spread is 7 points off I fade my pick. Havent done so this year yet.


    To all those that think its fixed I suggest fading your own picks. You will be happier in the end as you can tell your buddies "f vegas i beat them". And then You can only blame losses on yourself and not someone else.

    Best of luck all.
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 9:13 AM ET #217

    10% vig and you beat them on the long run? Not bad buddy
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    10% vig and you beat them on the long run? Not bad buddy
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 9:22 AM ET #218

    Quote Originally Posted by buffalotexan:

    Cannot believe I read most of these posts, but since I did figured I would reply.

    Conspiracy will always exist. Sportsbetting Has various inputs that lend itself to line fixing and I am sure it happens, but that is on the players and refs not vegas or the nfl.

    Couple of reasons for why I say this
    1. The spreads are close because the matchups lend itself to that. For example, you can say that a game will be defensive and come down to fg. Then vegas may set it at 2.5-4. Game hits at 3 as expected. Not sure how this is "fixing". Cle v balt most recently--why wasnt 6-9 the right mark. Cle strong d no real offense And balt not the same team as last year. I took balt but figured it would be close. Tothe guy who had the 35.5 over. To me this sounds like two bad offs or great ds and possessions not scoring was expected. Just because it was 1h v 2h means nothing at the end stat line. 35.5 was probability of each possession scoring v punt v fg. Everything reverts to the mean.

    2. There are bettors who can hit 60 percent on the season. Check any major handicapping contest and winner will be 55-65 percent. Most bet based on spreads they think are .5 to 1point off

    3. Vegas has more data than we do. Not all books have the same lines. Books try to make it 50-50 and not gamble themselves. Think market making of a stock. You dont typically keep inventory. If fixed why would books differ. For example the other week i took no by 4.5 when other books had it at 3--only have one acct. Bad game on my part and my only loss this season. But if you say games are rigged then not sure this happens as often. Someone may try to argue that it is when a book is 70-30 on a game that is when it is rigged but then that assumes all the books are 70-30. I cannot ever see this happening. Remember vegas is not a single entity

    Note with this being said where i think the spread is 7 points off I fade my pick. Havent done so this year yet.


    To all those that think its fixed I suggest fading your own picks. You will be happier in the end as you can tell your buddies "f vegas i beat them". And then You can only blame losses on yourself and not someone else.

    Best of luck all.

    You seem to think that there's no higher up than vegas... And that vegas works for no one... That will hold true if you were watching the superbowl in vegas and there isnt a single soul standing at the counter waiting to put in his plays... 
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    Quote Originally Posted by buffalotexan:

    Cannot believe I read most of these posts, but since I did figured I would reply.

    Conspiracy will always exist. Sportsbetting Has various inputs that lend itself to line fixing and I am sure it happens, but that is on the players and refs not vegas or the nfl.

    Couple of reasons for why I say this
    1. The spreads are close because the matchups lend itself to that. For example, you can say that a game will be defensive and come down to fg. Then vegas may set it at 2.5-4. Game hits at 3 as expected. Not sure how this is "fixing". Cle v balt most recently--why wasnt 6-9 the right mark. Cle strong d no real offense And balt not the same team as last year. I took balt but figured it would be close. Tothe guy who had the 35.5 over. To me this sounds like two bad offs or great ds and possessions not scoring was expected. Just because it was 1h v 2h means nothing at the end stat line. 35.5 was probability of each possession scoring v punt v fg. Everything reverts to the mean.

    2. There are bettors who can hit 60 percent on the season. Check any major handicapping contest and winner will be 55-65 percent. Most bet based on spreads they think are .5 to 1point off

    3. Vegas has more data than we do. Not all books have the same lines. Books try to make it 50-50 and not gamble themselves. Think market making of a stock. You dont typically keep inventory. If fixed why would books differ. For example the other week i took no by 4.5 when other books had it at 3--only have one acct. Bad game on my part and my only loss this season. But if you say games are rigged then not sure this happens as often. Someone may try to argue that it is when a book is 70-30 on a game that is when it is rigged but then that assumes all the books are 70-30. I cannot ever see this happening. Remember vegas is not a single entity

    Note with this being said where i think the spread is 7 points off I fade my pick. Havent done so this year yet.


    To all those that think its fixed I suggest fading your own picks. You will be happier in the end as you can tell your buddies "f vegas i beat them". And then You can only blame losses on yourself and not someone else.

    Best of luck all.

    You seem to think that there's no higher up than vegas... And that vegas works for no one... That will hold true if you were watching the superbowl in vegas and there isnt a single soul standing at the counter waiting to put in his plays... 
     
    HoldingXYZ
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 9:24 AM ET #219

    Besides you know how many team owners.. own casinoes? 
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    Besides you know how many team owners.. own casinoes? 
     
    thawv
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 9:59 AM ET #220

    I've said this many times.  Where's there's money, there's corruption.  Nobody in their right mind would leave a trillion dollar business up to chance. 

    This is an entertainment business.  Nothing more.  It's about money, not winning.

    If we are allowed to wager on something, you can bet your life that the end result is influenced by something or someone other than what/who we bet on.  Take it to the bank.
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    I've said this many times.  Where's there's money, there's corruption.  Nobody in their right mind would leave a trillion dollar business up to chance. 

    This is an entertainment business.  Nothing more.  It's about money, not winning.

    If we are allowed to wager on something, you can bet your life that the end result is influenced by something or someone other than what/who we bet on.  Take it to the bank.
     
    HoldingXYZ
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 10:13 AM ET #221

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv:

    I've said this many times.  Where's there's money, there's corruption.  Nobody in their right mind would leave a trillion dollar business up to chance. 

    This is an entertainment business.  Nothing more.  It's about money, not winning.

    If we are allowed to wager on something, you can bet your life that the end result is influenced by something or someone other than what/who we bet on.  Take it to the bank.

    Right on man. Look at Jessie Jackson , all the guys that landed in jail as political figures. Then look at the bears. Lol
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv:

    I've said this many times.  Where's there's money, there's corruption.  Nobody in their right mind would leave a trillion dollar business up to chance. 

    This is an entertainment business.  Nothing more.  It's about money, not winning.

    If we are allowed to wager on something, you can bet your life that the end result is influenced by something or someone other than what/who we bet on.  Take it to the bank.

    Right on man. Look at Jessie Jackson , all the guys that landed in jail as political figures. Then look at the bears. Lol
     
    thawv
    thawv
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 12:10 PM ET #222

    Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:


    Right on man. Look at Jessie Jackson , all the guys that landed in jail as political figures. Then look at the bears. Lol

    I don't know what you're trying to say here my friend.
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:


    Right on man. Look at Jessie Jackson , all the guys that landed in jail as political figures. Then look at the bears. Lol

    I don't know what you're trying to say here my friend.
     
    subpar
    subpar
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 12:39 PM ET #223

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv:


    I don't know what you're trying to say here my friend.
    Just exposing himself as a bigot, and an ignorant fool trying to justify why he sucks at life...
    Probably an overweight turd that can't play sports for shht...   scrub.
    And since your buddy works for foxsports and knows the script,  WHY DON'T YOU POST SOME WINNERS. ..?
    Also, why would you still watch the games every week, if you know they're fakes...!?!
    GTFO you loser
    I'm done with this clown... 
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv:


    I don't know what you're trying to say here my friend.
    Just exposing himself as a bigot, and an ignorant fool trying to justify why he sucks at life...
    Probably an overweight turd that can't play sports for shht...   scrub.
    And since your buddy works for foxsports and knows the script,  WHY DON'T YOU POST SOME WINNERS. ..?
    Also, why would you still watch the games every week, if you know they're fakes...!?!
    GTFO you loser
    I'm done with this clown... 
     
    thawv
    thawv
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 12:48 PM ET #224

    Quote Originally Posted by subpar:

    Just exposing himself as a bigot, and an ignorant fool trying to justify why he sucks at life...
    Probably an overweight turd that can't play sports for shht...   scrub.
    And since your buddy works for foxsports and knows the script,  WHY DON'T YOU POST SOME WINNERS. ..?
    Also, why would you still watch the games every week, if you know they're fakes...!?!
    GTFO you loser
    I'm done with this clown... 


    Dude...what are you talking about?  Who's buddy works for fox?  Who is the loser in your comment?  Who is the clown?
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    Quote Originally Posted by subpar:

    Just exposing himself as a bigot, and an ignorant fool trying to justify why he sucks at life...
    Probably an overweight turd that can't play sports for shht...   scrub.
    And since your buddy works for foxsports and knows the script,  WHY DON'T YOU POST SOME WINNERS. ..?
    Also, why would you still watch the games every week, if you know they're fakes...!?!
    GTFO you loser
    I'm done with this clown... 


    Dude...what are you talking about?  Who's buddy works for fox?  Who is the loser in your comment?  Who is the clown?
     
     
    inthetank
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2013 - 1:01 PM ET #225

    I 100 PERCENT UNDERSTND WHAT HOLDING XYZ IS SAYING IN REF. TO J. JACKSON AND CHICAGO....Have you looked at those videos HOLDING XYZ POSTED HERE subpar?.....Take a good look, and what you see should be obvious!!!!
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    I 100 PERCENT UNDERSTND WHAT HOLDING XYZ IS SAYING IN REF. TO J. JACKSON AND CHICAGO....Have you looked at those videos HOLDING XYZ POSTED HERE subpar?.....Take a good look, and what you see should be obvious!!!!
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