Lines dictates the game....

Vegas is collecting a lot of cash on Seattle! That's why the 11 point spread is so suspicious. Right now Seattle is the public  play. Haven't seen any sharp money coming in yet, I think they wait for some line movement.  Also, a lot of money flowing in on the Ravens 

MB,, to answer your question... Of the four divisional games,, im almost certain atleast one or both of the 7pointers are a dog... How do i know which one? figuring out which one has a higher volume...  as those games progress up until the game starting... The line moves right before the game time says alot

Theres simply some games the house knows which side has a higher chance,, i've studied line movement for quite some time... usually there isnt much fake moves in the playoffs... Simply because they do not want to scare the public,, unless if its just that lopsided... When you see a number drop from 7 to 6 on a home favorite... Thats a bold move... And sure enough Dallas didnt cover... So they give the lead to Det the first half then the second half dallas owns,, especially if The team that is down still having to give a full touch down or 6.5 in the second half... You have to learn how to respect those moves,, usually they dont allow much time for you to think,, the public loves value i can tell you this... And sure enough they choked on that value... 

And tell tale signs of this event is when a team really looks that bad in the first half,, or you have a player over reacting on an injury... Halfs are slightly trickyier,, sometimes the winning ways for the halfs is simply based on the anticipation,, because books know people want to chase... So early on you need to know where the action is and what the public will do... While other times you have to litterally take the side that does not make sense... every matchup is different as also to the chip count...  but most fall into those two main categories

Seattle has definitely turned into a public darling. 

I think you may be correct... Most people that like cam probably doesnt like taking cam simply because he's usually shaky when it comes to spreads... However The seahawks one the superbowl... Its set at double digits simply because of the anticipation... THe books are not giving cam any respect here thats for sure...

In the tank buddy - I laughed and laughed at this comment by you:

"....It was 35-0 at the half!....I was all smiles, butttttt, no score in the second half...Several drives inside the ten ended in fumbles....Hmmmm....Plus 4 missed field goals....."  

plus 4 missed field goals..that's what did it for me.....put me over the edge......I got tears in my eyes from laughing so hard......that comment made my day...thanks.

 

 

Im just gonna dwell a little bit by the Cowboys - Lions game, because if we look at it once again, did you see Lions first 2 touchdowns? Easy breezy. So how can the game be slowed so much down, that they fail to get a touchdown for the last 3 quarters? It is almost impossible. If you look at how they played in terms of getting the two first touchdowns on the board it shouldnt be possible for them not to score at least one more touchdown for the rest of the game. What does it take for them not to score?

1. Lions (for some reason) fade away rest of the game offensively, why would they do that if it wasnt for fixing?

2. Cowboys would have to find something to shut down Lions offense; how would they be able to find this 'all of a sudden and magically'?

Do you honestly think, after Lions grabbed their first two touchdowns, that if they had scored another touchdown the game would have been won by them? Nope, i dont think so either, because Dallas would just respond with another touchdown somehow 'magically'. Thats how it works. But why didnt that happen then? Because they wanted the game to go under as well, so they had to COMPLETELY shut down the production from Lions after they had 2 touchdowns. Im gonna continue on this post later.

So for example, if we look at how this differs from NBA, then if you have a team that comes "hot" into the game by lighting up under like 35 points which is similar to the two touchdowns of Lions, then its likely that it will settle down a bit in the 2nd quarter if they start missing shots, start taking bad shots, the other team plays better D, but so many variables have to work in favor of the other team in other for this team to score only like 10-15 points which would be similar to Lions if we say this was a NBA game. So lets say that this Lions team putting 35 points up on the board in the first quarter only would score 20 points in the 2nd quarter, then it would still give them 55 points @ halftime which is really good and makes it likely they will hit 100+. If you look at Dallas D in the first quarter and at Lions O, i think it would take a miracle if Lions produced under 35 points, they could likely hit 42 or even 49 the way this game was going, so that just goes to show that whatever they want to happen, happens. Can you tell me what happened all of a sudden to Lions point production? You go from delivering 2 touchdowns to delivering nothing at all for 3 straight quarters how is that so? What changed in the minutes? Dallas just 'suddenly' adjusted to their playcalling? please dont give me that. Lions had them figured out. They had this game in the bag. Its insane to imagine Lions end this game with silly 20 points when they have 14 points that early in the game, its absolutely insane, its almost impossible to imagine that it happened. The chance of Lions not scoring a touchdown for the rest of the game after the first 2 touchdowns is under 1% imo.

Well said. Totally agree w/ u

This is a good thread.

 Thought I had seen and heard it all, well, actually I have, most of it, until today!!!!,,,,Governor Christie of New Jersey, a very good friend of Jerry "jism" Jones, was flown to the Cowboys game totally free over the weekend, plus all the luxury amenities(maybe a bit of that Texas "poo!")....Additionally, he and Jones are business partners in a huge building venture in New York , I believe with Governor Cuomo....So, the theory is now that there is a huge financial conspiracy, with the NFL along, to have Dallas as the Super Bowl winner...Now "Rotund Rectum" Christie should be an Eagles fan, being that close, but lovessssssssssss JONESY and the boys....Geeeez!....Hate seeing that all over the news, makes me think about Dallas  a bit less now....However, as a very wise man told me nearly 50 years ago-----"Son, everything in life, it's problems etc., come down to 2 things----"Money and p-oo-n tang!"....Think about it guys!.....It really is the truth!!!!.....More on "capping" later!....

By the way HOLD, agree with ya on the line movements at this time of the year!.....Gotta watch them!......SNEAKY!!.....

Interesting that we have some reverse line movement in the Patriots game and the Packers game.  Tells you a little something on which side Vegas wants Joe  Public on.....

What side they want? Coz packers line hasnt changed? They want ppl to bet on Patriots?

Holding,

Knowing Hold, he'll probably start a new thread aimed solely at this week's games, with a catchy title.....Am I right Hold?.....Like last week, ending in 'FULL THROTTLE!".....Good luck guys!

These games are rough... My head is in the Nba now... Of the 4 im eyeing the father and son game closely... going to make it large most likely... You know which one im talking about right? 

Where do you see what side the public is on / where the money is coming in? 

The problem is unless you work for a book you have no idea where the majority of the money is going.  Just cause some website tells you 70% of bettors are on one side it doesnt mean thats where the money is. 

What if the average bet from that 70% is $100 and the average bet on the 30% side is $1000?? That means the money is loaded on the 30% side. 

You only know the percentages, you have no idea where the money is though.

Just from what the local books here in Vegas are telling me. I used to work in the industry here and know  a few people still working,  and it's just what they're saying. Take it for what it's worth,  just word of mouth 

Lol this thread has blown up , good job Boston 

Got ya Hold!!!!!!!!!!!.....I understand well....Now, about PUBLIC MONEY!....Years ago, when I TOOK action, let's say, just as an example, on one game I had 50 bettors.....40 were on TEAM 1....1O were on team two....However, the amount of money that was waged by the 10 was totally way over the other 40....So, my opinion was that the 40 were usually more wrong than right....To me, they repr. the public opinion....It's just that some guys can 'get down'  more on a game than others....Plus, I had a guy named 'STRAMBOAT' who was lucky if he hit 15 percent for the year....If he was in the other 40, it was usually "lock city"----THE OTHER WAY!....Now on this site, there are , IMO, at least 5-6 STEAMBOATS.....That's how I  look at it fellas....GOOD LUCK!!!!

I am wondering if the small line drop was due to the extreme cold temps in the midwest this week.  Colder game, could lead to lower scoring and closer contest.  Although, it appears temps will be moving back up closer to normal for this time of year. Still cold though.  Also, 6.5 to 6.0 isn't as major a move as say 7 to 6.5. 

Just some thoughts, obviously some speculation.  I'm still torn on this game, probably pass on it for wagering.