Posted:
#1876
Panthers to win odd 41-1 meaning 100 investment will give u 4100.
Imagine putting 100 buck on panthers on every game on ml, and with winning roll it over.
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Lines dictates the game....
Posted:
#1880
As I have stated, I think Panthers need to play a near perfect game to have a chance to win. Yes, their D is solid, and maybe under-rated. But this is an experienced and efficient offense, not a 3rd string QB with some rag-tag running backs. If Palmer, or even Stanton play last week, that games goes a lot differently. Cards had literally no offense (97 total yards before the last play) and still were in the game.
Does what happened last week tell us all we need to know, of course not, it was just one game. But if you trust Cam Newton on the road in this environment, I think you're nuts. I still haven't made my mind up on the spread, but no way can I play Carolina ML.
Leans right now.
Seattle laying
Seattle-Carolina OVER
Denver laying
Does what happened last week tell us all we need to know, of course not, it was just one game. But if you trust Cam Newton on the road in this environment, I think you're nuts. I still haven't made my mind up on the spread, but no way can I play Carolina ML.
Leans right now.
Seattle laying
Seattle-Carolina OVER
Denver laying
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and the beat goes on..
Posted:
#1886
For the record guys,, people have been telling me i make too many plays... This was cut and pasted from my nba threads.... 60% ish nba current,, nfl 65%... Big plays are always higher in percentages... My response as follows
at 60% or better,,, im not looking to win 6 out of 10... Im looking to win 60000 out of 100000.... I have already dropped some plays simply because i do not have the time to handicap all of these plays... My nfl plays are hitting at a 65% clip simply because i have a whole week to think about those games... with the nba i have one day... As soon as the games end i have to enter all the info on each game into multiple spread sheets,, then keep track of all injuries line movements,, situations,, and public perception... And if i have additional time i look at which plays to upgrade , downgrade or add... Those who know me still all say i play to many games... Ive shrunk this down a bit by rougly 10%,, even a good buddy told me he's never seen anyone play that many games,,, and i said,, you ever see anyone play that many games and still turn a profit? He said no... everyone is different,,, and every game can be good value if you put in the time to find it...  |
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Posted:
#1888
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:
For the record guys,, people have been telling me i make too many plays... This was cut and pasted from my nba threads.... 60% ish nba current,, nfl 65%... Big plays are always higher in percentages... My response as follows
For the record guys,, people have been telling me i make too many plays... This was cut and pasted from my nba threads.... 60% ish nba current,, nfl 65%... Big plays are always higher in percentages... My response as follows
| at 60% or better,,, im not looking to win 6 out of 10... Im looking to win 60000 out of 100000.... I have already dropped some plays simply because i do not have the time to handicap all of these plays... My nfl plays are hitting at a 65% clip simply because i have a whole week to think about those games... with the nba i have one day... As soon as the games end i have to enter all the info on each game into multiple spread sheets,, then keep track of all injuries line movements,, situations,, and public perception... And if i have additional time i look at which plays to upgrade , downgrade or add... Those who know me still all say i play to many games... Ive shrunk this down a bit by rougly 10%,, even a good buddy told me he's never seen anyone play that many games,,, and i said,, you ever see anyone play that many games and still turn a profit? He said no... everyone is different,,, and every game can be good value if you put in the time to find it... |
ignore the people who say you play too much. If you're making money who cares the amount of games.
You have been making me lots of money lately in NFL, so lets keep it going this weekend
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Posted:
#1890
| And the same guy ,, "my friend" ended up playing the whole board like me,, why? because he saw my results... He saw me winning at a really high daily rate... Another friend goes to the casino everyday playing table games litterally,, and they have this stupid mentality that they have to leave when they are ahead... This is by far one of the biggest dumsh!t thing i have ever heard... Because the moment they leave and come back,, their odds are exactly the SAME .. So instead of focusing on getting that edge or that little extra bit of info to help you handicap a game,, they focus on the wrong thing... |
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Posted:
#1891
Now dont get me wrong,, i do hedge if im already winning,,, for instance,, if there's 10 games on the board,, and im already in on every game,, the first 4 games if i win most of them,, i may hedge out on the last 6 games,, that's possible... So alot has to do with not only a large sample size and winning the war,,, its also money management,, knowing when to fold and knowing when to press or hold...
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Posted:
#1892
Let me preface this by saying that my football picks this year have been average on my good weeks, not been a good year. So this is not any criticism on the picks themselves. Just wanted to clarify Mr. Holding's claims of being 65% on NFL games this year, which, anyone would admit, would be quite impressive.
In this thread (yes, I went back and added them all up) Holding is 117-98-2 ATS on NFL games this season. Not bad actually. I'd challenge most covers posters to try and best that. But it's 54.4%, not 65%. Change ten of those losses to wins, still only 59%. Change TWENTY of those losses to wins, still short of 65%.
So needless to say, I may have made an error or two (or three) and anyone that follows Holding's plays knows there is a lot of jumping around and many, many, many threads to follow. So I just chose this one, and 217 games is enough to establish a solid %. I ignored all teasers, and gave all credit due for the game flips after a play was posted.
So Holding, congrats on a really decent year. As I said, my picks struggled and going 54% ATS would have been great. So well done.
I hope you don't take this as "hating" at all. I don't hate, despite what some previous posts might indicate. I just like to seek truth and integrity, as I know how difficult it is to come out ahead in this stupid gambling world.
Looking forward to working with EVERYONE to make some $$$$ going forward in the playoffs.
BOL.........
In this thread (yes, I went back and added them all up) Holding is 117-98-2 ATS on NFL games this season. Not bad actually. I'd challenge most covers posters to try and best that. But it's 54.4%, not 65%. Change ten of those losses to wins, still only 59%. Change TWENTY of those losses to wins, still short of 65%.
So needless to say, I may have made an error or two (or three) and anyone that follows Holding's plays knows there is a lot of jumping around and many, many, many threads to follow. So I just chose this one, and 217 games is enough to establish a solid %. I ignored all teasers, and gave all credit due for the game flips after a play was posted.
So Holding, congrats on a really decent year. As I said, my picks struggled and going 54% ATS would have been great. So well done.
I hope you don't take this as "hating" at all. I don't hate, despite what some previous posts might indicate. I just like to seek truth and integrity, as I know how difficult it is to come out ahead in this stupid gambling world.
Looking forward to working with EVERYONE to make some $$$$ going forward in the playoffs.
BOL.........
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Posted:
#1894
On my poys im hitting 100% ,, small sample size of 5 or so... Now there were some plays where i didnt post... Thats where you may have mis calculated... I try to post as often as i can... Doesnt mean im dis honest,,... It simply means you either trust me or you dont... But if you need real proof of every game i have picked,, i have it all documented and i can send them to you via email... In america,, i've learned a few things,, always save your receipts... And in life i learned a few things growing up,, what comes around goes around,, Lie only if its a good lie,, otherwise it will come back and haunt you... Good things happen to good people,, thats what i try to do... That's all folks
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Posted:
#1895
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:
IM hitting 65% on sides,,, totals im 58 -59 percent... I bet almost every side... But not every total... Thanks for you honest remark... For the longest time batman,, i though you were either an admin or just a straight troll... Maybe i was wrong... best of luck to you
IM hitting 65% on sides,,, totals im 58 -59 percent... I bet almost every side... But not every total... Thanks for you honest remark... For the longest time batman,, i though you were either an admin or just a straight troll... Maybe i was wrong... best of luck to you
No, you got me wrong. Not a troll, although I'm not above trolling sometimes. Certainly not an admin or a "book", just a regular guy trying to have some fun picking winners.
In your defense, I did not differentiate between totals or side, nor did I take into account "big" bets either. You played a lot games, so it is what it is.
I'm beyond done arguing with everyone about WHY stuff happens and really just want to work on figuring out WHAT IS going to happen.
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Posted:
#1896
2014-2015 CONFERENCE
BAL +7 & BAL 1H
These wont be big plays for me.. My biggies are on SUNDAY....
WHY? The public will be hammering brady... And i dont see the line budging... Brady is known to be below average in the playoffs unless against rookie quarterbacks... Doesnt mean i dont love brady any less... Now if the line drops to 6 to 6.5 i may consider teasing brady down to a pick or so with another play.... If there's any team that can beat brady,, its the Ravens ,, simply because of FORSETT in this particular spot... I dont see the pats being able to stop this running back,, unless the football gods are against the ravens i like my chances.... Im thinking its one of those games where BRADY pulls a brady in the Second half when he's all worked up and it turns into a hero ball type of game... Good luck all
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Posted:
#1898
Ravens have the experience to win here, but last time they did they were a different offense. Pats are tough to figure sometimes. I just don't like the way the Ravens limped in. And even last week, Pitt (without Bell) had some chances to make it a game early, but settled for FGs. Jets seem to be the only team of late to figure Pats out, and I think Brady can beat Ravens. If anything, I have to roll Pats here, also lean to the over.
Brady vs. Manning epic showdown coming!!! Doesn't mean Pats will cover, but I think at least one of the two do.
Pats + Over
Broncs + Under
Those are my AFC leans.
Brady vs. Manning epic showdown coming!!! Doesn't mean Pats will cover, but I think at least one of the two do.
Pats + Over
Broncs + Under
Those are my AFC leans.
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Posted:
#1899
Quote Originally Posted by VEGAS__WISE_GUY:
Not to sound to far fetched, but since 9/11 the U.S. has been in a Police State. If you don't know what that means then Google it. As a result, can you see how that tragic event has helped brand certain NFL teams. Remember polic state...
Not to sound to far fetched, but since 9/11 the U.S. has been in a Police State. If you don't know what that means then Google it. As a result, can you see how that tragic event has helped brand certain NFL teams. Remember polic state...
I hv googled and nothing special wot am I missing?
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Posted:
#1900
Calling for a offensive showcase here, Flacco has apparently achieved elete branding the coaching is there as are the weapons. The Pats are explosive and most likey the Bowl front runner I'm expecting all the flglits and glamer out of this matchup. NE is going gun for the end zone early and offten we all know what they do to teams off a fast start, Balti will be answering back until late I'll be looking for some good in game action depending on how it shifts out
Main
Over 47
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