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Lines dictates the game....

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Posted: #926
Usually you have to catch these runs early.. Btw the pattern breaks is usually when theres less action on the game itself... I use alot of markers to indicate these numbers.. 
 
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Posted: #927
Jags OVER
 
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Posted: #928
Holding - I greatly appreciate your long posts there, i can defintely relate to that. - Even tho u are a MJ lover and LBJ hater 
 
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Posted: #929
Quote Originally Posted by kaboons:

Sometimes u don't need stats or none of that garbage, just ask a handful of guys what they think and go against them especially if they are big meatheads.

Ex: Matt Ryan is great at home so close to bs last year, huge fade. Now all I hear is how NFC east sucks and romo can't win in the playoffs 

This is as true as it can be. But its always about the "questionmarks" so to say. This year all the meatheads: "RGIII wil be the king of the world! Worlds best quarterback" and now he sucks donkey a$$t. But u know whats gonna happen next year? RG III is gonna be a top 10 quarterback and will win the NFC East for Redskins... Thats just how it is.


 
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Posted: #930
Any storyline involving the Steelers with the Tomlin sideline antics on parade? Will the team rally around him?

I say 'no'.
 
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Posted: #931
Quote Originally Posted by BostonCelticFTW:

Holding - I greatly appreciate your long posts there, i can defintely relate to that. - Even tho u are a MJ lover and LBJ hater 

Lmao,, its my home town =0 MJ MJ 
 
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Posted: #932
Lots of fishy lines on spreads and totals.Reverse o/u on clev/cincy.OVER.  N.O. at home? Brees big comeback? NOPE! Take Cam.But check public opin. first.   Tonight! Reverse o/u from first game. Take OVER.   Balt. to garbage the bed soon, all def. super bowl champs do. Money talks, bullshit walks.   S.F game OVER.    How can Houston give anyone points?  Good work Holding.  You're capping the only possible way==To think like Vegas! 
 
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Posted: #933
Lines have been fishy all season at a 10-20 percent increase from the last five years... Which is really good news... Figuring out the sides ,, traps,,, reals,,, then totals,, by then i have an extra grey hair or two... Those angles look pretty good ... 
 
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Posted: #934
At the rate Jax and hou has been scoring... Im thinking the JP is on the over... What do you guys think
 
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Posted: #935
Always check out Phil Collins here for great fades.  LOL!
 
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Posted: #936

Holding?? Do you post CBB on that forum and also NBA?.    Don't know how you figure out NBA.  Has to be the most you know, tanking of all sports.

 
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Posted: #937
The Jags tonight?.  Think about this being the super bowl for the jags fans!   That means money, interest in the team, ticket sales for next year etc.  Have to think like the NFL.  Checking if money on Houston, if even slightly, then go with HOME PLUS OVER!
 
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Posted: #938
Nba is not that hard.. Once you input some data and figure how  patterns  happend on which day of the week then its like clock work... Because the football overshadows the nba... So you have to know which days are fades and stuff... I dont do totals for nba its too hard... I can pick sides pretty well with very little amount of time... The only time it takes me is when a new team becomes either up and coming or has a flip flopped season forth coming... With the nba there's maybe 2 teams that is worth riding all season.. One of them is indy unless if the line is fishy like that portland game we just had lol... i have a knack for looking for patterns... You really have to look at each team and be able to know how to rank them ats against which ever oppenent quickly.. because there's so many games everyday... Fading Ny and the lakers was pretty good LOL i mean stuff like that
 
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Posted: #939

This is as true as it can be. But its always about the "questionmarks" so to say. This year all the meatheads: "RGIII wil be the king of the world! Worlds best quarterback" and now he sucks donkey a$$t. But u know whats gonna happen next year? RG III is gonna be a top 10 quarterback and will win the NFC East for Redskins... Thats just how it is.

boston u finished my story LOL
 
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Posted: #940
holding yes every laker win is followed by a fade.

houston jags. anyone think they showcase jj watts talent tonight?
 
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Posted: #941
Man i dont wanna see jj showcasing which part of his body is bleeding on which event LOL... Yet i dont think the public is crazy on the sides... I think the pub likes the totals here... I would probably lean Hou-under... And those 1/2 points are starting to bother me lol
 
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Posted: #942
hahah

im leaning the same. houston and under. not sure if ill bet it or not
 
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Posted: #943
well it is the battle of the Shhits
 
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Posted: #944
Off topic,,, but i think the saints are overdue with their rise through the years... And i think Cam has been quite popular as of late... Gonna jump on Car
 
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Posted: #945
after the car giants game early this season i hesitated on pulling the trigger on panthers 20-1 to win the division. i talked about it all weekend had 1k ready to do it. now feeling like chit 
 
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Posted: #946
wow you serious.. i never play those ... 
 
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Posted: #947
O/U first half in Texans/Jags:

Over: They call taunting
Under: They dont

 
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Posted: #948
I took the second half 

Hou -3.5     2 units
Under 21.5 1 unit
 
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Posted: #949
Something ive noticed in the NBA is that, when the game is COMPLETELY away from the spread, what they usely do is they no longer give a damn how much theres scored in a game. A good example of this is LAC - Memphis, look, the first 3 quarters, NOT A GOD DAMN single point is scored. And all of a sudden, when we go into 4th quarter, EVERY shot is scored, NO DEFENSE is played, and tons of offensive calls.

Guys, THE IN GAME O/U LINE WAS 161.5!!!! There is REALLY good money to be made here. My theory is, if first 3 quarters is over, then bet the under in 4th quarter. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH GAMBLERS FALLACY as that is a totally different thing in this regard, but this is about the fact that, they care about the spread for the first 3 quarters, and they will for the 4th quarter as well if the deal isnt sealed, but when the DEAL IS SEALED, they will let the game be the game and the line will NO LONGER dictate how the game is meant to be played when its so completely way off. Another example of this, was the Orlando - Philly game, ground and pound for the first 3 quarters, in game line reaches 225.5 before the beginning of the 4th quarter, here - they ALLOW the game to be played as the game dictates to be played, and not the line controlling anything again. So - BET THE UNDER IN THIS GAME, thats the wise choice. But look what happens... This gets so far out of control that the line is now in risk of going under, so they had to send the game to OT in order for over to cover which they wanted in the first place determined on the first 3 quarters. So the game went over in this case, but my point is, under is a good play in spots like these. And vice versa for the over.


 
 
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Posted: #950
That makes alot of sense... And line makers know bettors dont really play the fourth quarters... And when its a blowout like that i guess 4th quarter scoring is kinda meaningless,, if anything they dont want starters to get hurt... 
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