Posted:
#951
If you think about it... With FULL, halfs, quarters,,games ,, parlays ectect that's alot of action and money to be made... Yes lines dictate games..
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Lines dictates the game....
Posted:
#952
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:
That makes alot of sense... And line makers know bettors dont really play the fourth quarters... And when its a blowout like that i guess 4th quarter scoring is kinda meaningless,, if anything they dont want starters to get hurt...
That makes alot of sense... And line makers know bettors dont really play the fourth quarters... And when its a blowout like that i guess 4th quarter scoring is kinda meaningless,, if anything they dont want starters to get hurt...
Exactly, and if anything, the money will probably be pretty spread out 50/50 so that bookies will just take the juice. Maybe even a bit favor of the under, coz all the square betters be like "They cant hit anything.. Missing all shots and they blow offensively. This guy is 2/15 so this should be easy under 48.5" So its just a win/win.
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Posted:
#955
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:
Boston,,
Boston,,
Well one thing i can almost guess,,, is the difference between the full game wagering and quarters and halfs... I think that's what you are trying to look for... Which ultimately remains the same,,, where the action is or if there is no action at all...
Yep, theres a great difference. Coz the "overall" line is dictated by something, the ingame lines are not since what bookies care about is the original line set out in the first place. They dont give a damn about the other lines. Ofc they will have focus on beating up a teaser here on there, but the pre-game line is in focus, therefore i believe its easier to cap in game lines that are not dictated by the game.
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Posted:
#956
| Well as for halfs,, i usually go against the grain.. Works majority of the times.. I use to this hedge against the vig as small plays... Long term wise those vig will add up... And there's a million ways to allocate your cash flow.. Boston if you have this data its definetly worth exploring.. |
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Posted:
#959
I love how everyone hyped Derrick Rose and the return and such and expected Bulls to top the east. He played REALLY well in the pre season just to create even more hype. I visited Chicago and it was madness. Posters everywhere. EVERYWHERE. #TheReturn hashtag etc. i even asked other visitors of the town why they were in Chicago, they said, just because of the return they just wanted to be here to a couple of days. This holds strong brand value for the Chicago as a city as a whole, that they can hype this return garbage up in the media and create lots of buzz about it. Then, when Chicago comes in, in the first game... They got SMASHED. It was 2 teams on 2 completely different planets. And this shows that NBA is rigged. People EXPECT Chicago to be able to hang around with the Miami Heat here, and people expected chicago to be able to put on a big ball game. And then they get absolutely CRUSHED and absolutely DEMOLISHED. And now, without Rose, they are all of a sudden doing pretty damn well, and they dont even have Robinson to compensate. This shows how little players matter. They matter horse garbage in this rigging fest. How can a team, with a good player, get absolutely crushed, and then when they lose this player which obv. makes them even worse, they can all of a sudden get a huge win (or at least a huge lead as it is now)
We have many great examples of this. In this season in the NFL, Broncos were always due for a win, but all the time on the forums people faded them coz of the high lines, and then when Broncos started covering week after week after week, people had this feeling "they have to fail to cover soon" so people are over analyzing and overthinking their plays and overthinking what they THINK will happen in the first place or what they EXPECT to happen. People became so square, so that when the 27.5 jaguars line @ denver came out, people immediately took the Broncos because they EXPECTED them to absolutely crush the Jaguars. Even the line here, is psychologically because betters say: I expect Broncos to beat them with 2-5 TD's here. And then when Vegas puts out the line @ 27.5 - people say: Ok, i expect Broncos to beat them with 2-5 TDs, and so does Vegas, so Broncos -27.5 must be the right play.
Is there any way on mothers earth, that New York Giants will go 0-4? NO WAY!!!!
Vegas knows, that no1 would EVER dare to bet AGAINST a undefeated team with + POINTS!!!! for a HUGE amount of money. People will bet on Denver Broncos with the minus points against Chiefs yeah, but no1 will EVER have this play as the "play of the year" or "play of the week" and thats what they know!!! They know, no1 would ever consider a -5 line the best play of all plays against a team that hasnt dropped a single game. Now not only will they have to drop a game here, but they will also have to lose by more than 5 points.
Guys, we are talking about a difference of 50 points between the first heat game where Bulls were strong on paper, and then till now where Bulls are weak on paper. If this isnt fixed, rigged or anything, then i dont know what it is.
There is no logic. Theres supposed to be some kind of logic. But there is none. Absolutely zero.
In betting, what people expect to happen, almost never happens. AND WHEN IT DOES, then people will still be on the other side of the coin. For example, lets say people "expect" Saints to beat the Bills and beat them quiet comfortably, people will put money on the Saints if this play holds value. But, when Vegas then puts out a +14.5 line, then even betters and followers that BELIEVE saints will crush Bills, will place their money on +14.5 because the line is so high and that "Bills should be due for a cover since they are given a DD handicap"
We have many great examples of this. In this season in the NFL, Broncos were always due for a win, but all the time on the forums people faded them coz of the high lines, and then when Broncos started covering week after week after week, people had this feeling "they have to fail to cover soon" so people are over analyzing and overthinking their plays and overthinking what they THINK will happen in the first place or what they EXPECT to happen. People became so square, so that when the 27.5 jaguars line @ denver came out, people immediately took the Broncos because they EXPECTED them to absolutely crush the Jaguars. Even the line here, is psychologically because betters say: I expect Broncos to beat them with 2-5 TD's here. And then when Vegas puts out the line @ 27.5 - people say: Ok, i expect Broncos to beat them with 2-5 TDs, and so does Vegas, so Broncos -27.5 must be the right play.
The Broncos play is the squarest of all plays you can ever find. Best team in the league matched up against (at that time) the worst team in the league will just create the most inflated line the world has ever seen.
Another example of this "expectations is never what it is" is the Kansas City Chiefs. Look, no1 expected Kansas to do so well as they did this year, no1. So what happens? Yeah, they obviously do well. But when they win week after week, people fade them because they said in the first place that KCC were not so good as their record is telling us. And then, when Giants were 0-3 we create this scenario:
Is there any way on mothers earth, that Kansas City Chiefs will go 4-0? NO WAY!!!!
Is there any way on mothers earth, that Kansas City Chiefs will go 4-0? NO WAY!!!!
Is there any way on mothers earth, that New York Giants will go 0-4? NO WAY!!!!
And of course, what happens? Not only do KCC win here, but they also cover the spread.
And then later, against Denver Broncos, a UNDEFEATED team is given + points, that just triggers the square betters to take
Vegas knows, that no1 would EVER dare to bet AGAINST a undefeated team with + POINTS!!!! for a HUGE amount of money. People will bet on Denver Broncos with the minus points against Chiefs yeah, but no1 will EVER have this play as the "play of the year" or "play of the week" and thats what they know!!! They know, no1 would ever consider a -5 line the best play of all plays against a team that hasnt dropped a single game. Now not only will they have to drop a game here, but they will also have to lose by more than 5 points.
Back to the Giants, we had a situation where NO1 expected the 4-0 and 0-4 thing to happen. So look what happens week after week when people back Giants, and they still keep losing, what do people then do? Yeah - THEY START TO FADE THE GIANTS, BECAUSE THE GIANTS ARE A SCRUB TEAM RIGHT, THEY CANT WIN GAMES AND THEY SUCK AND IS THE WORST TEAM IN THE NFL, THEY WILL GO 0-16!!!
And yeah, here u go, now you finally see what happens. Giants start winning games, they start covering, right as no1 had any faith left in them, right as everyone started fading them and no1 had the guts to back them.
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Posted:
#960
Im gonna livebet under 197 in the heat - bulls game here with 9 minutes to play. I have many arguments as to why i think this will go under, but i dont have time to write it down if any1 wants to benefit now they will have to pull the trigger. I think this will go under in 60-65% in this kind of spot. Good luck.
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Posted:
#962
Quote Originally Posted by BostonCelticFTW:
Im gonna livebet under 197 in the heat - bulls game here with 9 minutes to play. I have many arguments as to why i think this will go under, but i dont have time to write it down if any1 wants to benefit now they will have to pull the trigger. I think this will go under in 60-65% in this kind of spot. Good luck.
Im gonna livebet under 197 in the heat - bulls game here with 9 minutes to play. I have many arguments as to why i think this will go under, but i dont have time to write it down if any1 wants to benefit now they will have to pull the trigger. I think this will go under in 60-65% in this kind of spot. Good luck.
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Posted:
#963
Some of these teams are under total control it's sick I mean I have never seen such a through tanking as what took place in Hou this year, that team IS top 5 in the nfl skill wise and boy they tanked from start until finish the exact opposite of last year they were undefeated for like 7 games if im not mistaken not to mention the side line performance from the coach maybe it's an occult symbolism "what is above is below" or something like that who knows for sure even though this stuff is proven I'll admit it's still pretty shocking to watch its so much agenda being pushed its like it's about EVERYTHING but athletics for instance the KC Cheifs last year I had them in the super bowl before the season based on the sheer talent but they sucked then the guy committed suicide IN THE SATDUIM then Andy Ried comes in after his son commits suicide and they win the Bulls are under control big time I saw the whole DRose thing from the jump for starters he's very overrated the media just made him a darling ,his first accident looked staged and the city was very dishearten at his lost but next thing you know teams are tank left and right for the bulls all the way to the playoffs now during the first round of the offs a sports reporter here in Chicago that follows the bulls was mysteriously killed before the game in his hotel still unsolved and never ever spoken about and I mean it was a story for one day then it was all about hoops never readdressed in the news then the return then the other knee the phony tv ads with Drose acting all strange and disassociated referencing "losing it all" this stuff is just too bizarre to ignore
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Posted:
#964
Ive also noticed that with games In time slots rivialing big draw network programming the squares lose its like you lost your bet in the second now turn on Scandal and forget about it maybe I'm reaching but it seems plausible in sure in the 90's squares were taking hits while ER ,Friends and Fraiser was on for the masses I donno but it is tiring don't care to watch games and I'm no longer a sports fan just wanna win money ok enough outta me back to our due diligence I'm focusing on Indi vs. Cinn Sea vs. SF and the night game Sunday I think Indi is the better team but I know the spotlight is on Cinn taking the division I think Sea is a gimmie game it's just a victory lap IMO and Cam is gonna do the seemingly impossible beat the who dats in the Benz dome and a superstar is born do u guys think I'm off base with any of this ?
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Posted:
#965
It's also pretty ironic how FSU faces Duke in the ACC champ even though NC is the better team it's a great underlying story for anyone who follow sports remember a few years back when that lovely young women tried to accuse the Duke lacrosse squad of rape well here we go with déjà vu it's like part 2 great story although not very wholesome for the family Disney networks shame shame
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Posted:
#966
For all the reasons you stated above.. Its a small world... If you are a sharpy in vegas, hitting college bball of some small town... They will pretty much refuse your action after a certain point... Its like why do they even open those lines and not let people wager lol... Its pretty much people with info are swept under the rug,, Bad news is no news,,, and they are too big to fail,, especially in a game that they own entirely.. There's guys that come in here time to time that hit 5-10 games in a row and gets banned,, and this site is no where near the states as far as i know... The biggest problem they will face is the internet... It can't be stopped... Neither side.. There's your irony...
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Posted:
#967
Hey guys..Hit jags last night here in my earlier post based on it being there super bowl this year and ticket sales etc next year.And houston has been in the shitter from day 1....All of your logic is corect here, just gotta learn to think like them...did ya read my post number 1605 at phixers thread...it's why the ravens won the super bowl last year.
See if u agree on my reasoning. Last night, with the o-u hovering around 44, and the score at 24-20, it was obvious they wanted it to stay there as with around two min. left, hous completes a pass to the 15, and the refs call a mysterious holding...lol...that was houston's 14th, a team record....lol!..and that;s where it ended...liking over in clev game now.....balt again, will garbage the bed soon...road paved for peyton...seattle WILL go into the shitter at home in the playoffs,,,that's a guarantee and vegas biggest win this year esp after that blowout of n.o..if they annihialate someone the first round at home, bet the bundle against them in the second......look for n.o. to go into the shitter soon also....all new money this year....kc , carolina etc...they spread it around...Good luck guys1
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Posted:
#968
didnt play the thurs game. didnt even watch it.
I had bulls over heat.
game 1 d rose back heat win.
rematch rose out. had to take the bet with the bulls.
I dont bet too many games and especially in the nba its 1-3 games a week if that.
u guys want to make a line dictates the game for nba?
boston u can start it up :) LOL
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