Lines dictates the game....

MNF game of the week 14: Dallas @ Chicago

Liking NO ML tonight I just think its more suspenseful up for grabs Brees is doing something very similar to Manning but then again I've been ice cold

I wouldnt do that ... 

Imagine how much money is on the saints.. All this money pouring in on the saints and the spread just keeps going up up up... I havent seen a spread like this given to the Saints in i dont recall how long...  If the hawks win by 8 or more,, vegas will be sitting prettier than pretty

how is everyone holding up? just got back from vacation. didnt see one single game over the weekend. except for the end of the saints sea game stretching their balls. lol i know that ref

Hello everyone, I just recently join the forum, but agree with Mr.BostonCeltic have said...people here might laugh at me...I think its all a set up just like wrestling...like years ago people thought wrestling is real and people now finally know that wrestling is all a fake and set up...now back to football...when u look ay the line like Mr. Boston have said...look ay wk. 3 for example...Atlanta vs Miami...Atlanta is a very good team... playoff caliber team from the previous years...but keep in mine Atlanta from week 3 don't have many injuries...and Miami out of nowhere favor by 3 who wouldn't go With Atlanta...80% of the public does...Miami ends up win by 4...and not only that think about Mon. Night game Seattle vs. N.orleans...who would ever thought Seattle would favor by 6.5 vs. A very good N. Orleans team...when public sees that 70% would wager on n. Orleans...turn out to be a blow out...by Seattle...and Miami vs Atlanta 70% on Atlanta ..Miami ends up win by 4....if its not a set up what is???good teams give good teams to much point cover?sorry teams give good teams point ends up cover the spread....

 

Hello everyone, I just recently join the forum, but agree with Mr.BostonCeltic have said...people here might laugh at me...I think its all a set up just like wrestling...like years ago people thought wrestling is real and people now finally know that wrestling is all a fake and set up...now back to football...when u look ay the line like Mr. Boston have said...look ay wk. 3 for example...Atlanta vs Miami...Atlanta is a very good team... playoff caliber team from the previous years...but keep in mine Atlanta from week 3 don't have many injuries...and Miami out of nowhere favor by 3 who wouldn't go With Atlanta...80% of the public does...Miami ends up win by 4...and not only that think about Mon. Night game Seattle vs. N.orleans...who would ever thought Seattle would favor by 6.5 vs. A very good N. Orleans team...when public sees that 70% would wager on n. Orleans...turn out to be a blow out...by Seattle...and Miami vs Atlanta 70% on Atlanta ..Miami ends up win by 4....if its not a set up what is???good teams give good teams to much point cover?sorry teams give good teams point ends up cover the spread....

 

WHAT?

Whatever looks good to your public eye....just bet the opposite. #easymoney wtf is so difficult about that? If so many people lose their behind on betting because they throw down on what they think looks good based on recent performances from this or that team. TAKE THE OTHER SIDE. Obv won't always work but bet it works more that 53% of the time.

holding data entry. i quit accounting a few years ago ;)

im still waiting for philly and dallas to separate so i can bet the game to make them tied for the division or a 1/2 game within eachother. last week setting up for prime time. 

I just like fading home teams in general. The system I use has at least 10 components off the top of my head. Some is psychological for me as well. I have a lot of data that I use as a filter. Then once it passes this filter and I count it as a play then I figure where the real and fake values are based on my own capped numbers  at this point I should already have a lot of contrast given a large sample size. I don't grade Sunday games the same as Mondays that's for sure. Another facet of my component is figuring out what teams need to come out to bring in the profits and efficently. Because without profits there won't be all of this. So there's a lot of theory involved as well.  So I would say 50 percent is numbers on sides and totals. Thes rest could be anything from injuries that matter or do not matter. To a tip that's given to me among my circle. They do give out a lot of hints right before the game. And i think the facial expressions during the first halfs and biases and so forth dictate a lot for the seance half when you plug that into the spreads. I kinda got a trained eye for this through the years. But as much as I am a numbers guy I do not like over paying for vig but since I can consistently beat the number for the second halfs I might play 3 of them out of a bunch on Sundays just to hedge against the vig I pay for my straights. I do not parley and rarely play teaser. The odds are pretty horrible. Considering you have to hit both sides. One tricky part is also variable change. Trends do not last forever and Vegas has all the info that anyone has and even better. The spreads you see on covers are off. Especially the 1 point spreads that can changed a home favorite to a dog to their liking. And there's sometimes a 2 point variation or more on all the average spreads combine and the actual spread you buy it at or should i say the settled line. So this kinda sums up half of it meanwhile every game is different in each year and day so it is very painstaking and tedious types of work. . So I take the filtered draft and rank each play because I do not flat bet. One of the reasons for my success is being able to hit 80 percent or better on my large plays consisting of 2-4 plays per week. But to my liking I play every game on the board I love the action even though it drags down my win percentage I have a figure that I want that I want to reach which matters the most. So my large plays I must hit. And when I win I can fool around on meaningless games to get my attention on learning those games as well. I classify each type of game with a name or shall I say rrank. This makes it a lot easier for me to just eye it. And will cut down the amount of time it takes to cap it traditionally without sacrificing too much of my brain cells. And believe it or not.  I do better playing at the last second. But I don't recommend anyone doing this because you literally have no life. At least not by yourself. Which is why good capers get paid. The work is pretty intense considering you have to manage Capitol every week every game. Input all that data that you cannot just copy and paste. More like taking a piece of crap and making something symmetrical out of it lol. Totals are a little trickier but on certain weeks there's a stronger chance one side will hit when you see a group of common numbers ranges and past trends of each game. I use three monitors and a few tv s running off two pcs it sucks at times because you really don't have much time afterwards. Taken to account sometimes I spend 15 hour days on my off days.  At the end of the day it's just this giant algorithm that kinda alternates around this time of year and catching each turn is a fun ride. where numbers just give you a clue. Piecing what the numbers represent in trying reaching that 100 percent day is the glory for me. So I do like this as a hobby to say the least. 

Or better yet. Instead of asking how we were created. Why not ask what the creator was thinking? 

Yea Sea def going down in the playoffs at home that game solidified it for me kinda in the vain how the NE win stamped Den ticket to the bowl we just watched the saints a few weeks ago demolish Dallas in such an dynamic offensive onslaught to then go to Sea and almost get shutout I'm licking my chops only question who's it gonna be to take sea shine ?

Wow holding that is a lot of work, I did that once with nba making graphs of teams totals cover half cover and came up with a system got 28 games right or so in a row until I burned out I stick to 1-3 games to keep me sane 

If you notice every year there's about to teams that fail to cover spreads... Most of the times these alternate... For example Its usually like cle, phi,, and this year its hou, and jax.. I have all this data on a seperate spread sheet that's already calculated to the T... Now when you look at all this on one page,, "it takes literally 2 screens to see it" its so much more easier than clicking around you know... I have one spread sheet specifically that im trying to re tool for my playoffs... I notice there's a trend every other year with teams that win the sb and the pattern of wins in losses for certain sectors of the year dictating superbowl winners among other info...  

Its kinda like a way to make the league well rounded... Where you wont get a shitty team year after year... People eventually catch on... Cle trades Trent and they started to win LOL 

And basically when you hear Ats trends,,, half the times they are meaningless,, because most people wont go through the work to see if those lines were actually a reality for the average joe,, I literally saw that seahawks game jump from 4 to 6 ,, it jumps right over 5... Meanwhile you have to figure if every push was really a push.. and half of them werenrt really pushes,, you either won of lost the half point... Most of the times you want to have that 1/2 points.. I've been noticing there's deviation in the stats and just trying to figure out if the sides or totals were really a push really sucks,, otherwise all the stats you have are pretty much faulty until those kinks get out.. 

12115

DAL-NYG	AWAY D
PHI-WAS	HOMEF
PHI-NYG	AWAY D
8	NYG-PHI	AWAY D
7	DAL-PHI	AWAY D
6	DAL-WAS	AWAY D
13	NYG-WAS	AWAYF

Woops that didnt come out  right... Those numbers are supposed to be the given weeks those two divisional games took place lol

If you notice that division in particular is always fading the home teams... 

I think those have a greater tendency of a rivalry... 

Yes Trent traded qb injured browns won two in a row I was all over it. The only one that didn't work was Aaron Rodgers went down, and fb hasn't covered with out him

Sometimes u don't need stats or none of that garbage, just ask a handful of guys what they think and go against them especially if they are big meatheads.

I have two other spread sheets just for garbage too lol