it goes both ways, when a game looks fishy, (ppl like me) say fixed
when a game looks legit sf vs rams (ppl like u) say "wheres the fix?? hahah.
Do i believe its fixed? yes
every game? no
if every game was fixed there would be no games to fix... think about it.
best of luck
Right, I understand your point.
Honestly, I just think the "public" (which includes me from to time) loses a lot more than it wins, which is why these public person teams go down in flames sometimes. Vegas knows about the match up, the teams, conditions, variables, etc than the general public (a LOT more), so they know they are going to win their fair share on those games, as the public is flipping coins for the most part, and will get vigged out.
And again, I don't see the need for Vegas (or any sports books) to fix NFL games. They do JUST fine playing it straight, and have for many many years. That coupled with the lack of evidence, whistle blowers, etc, leads me to believe they aren't involved in fixing games.
If we had some proof (and not just crazy endings to games), then you could question their motives. Or if you had a motive, then you could dig deeper into the results. But I see either existing, therefore I conclude the games aren't fixed.
OK, let's change topics. Who does everyone like this weekend, fixed or otherwise??
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Quote Originally Posted by kaboons:
no problem.
it goes both ways, when a game looks fishy, (ppl like me) say fixed
when a game looks legit sf vs rams (ppl like u) say "wheres the fix?? hahah.
Do i believe its fixed? yes
every game? no
if every game was fixed there would be no games to fix... think about it.
best of luck
Right, I understand your point.
Honestly, I just think the "public" (which includes me from to time) loses a lot more than it wins, which is why these public person teams go down in flames sometimes. Vegas knows about the match up, the teams, conditions, variables, etc than the general public (a LOT more), so they know they are going to win their fair share on those games, as the public is flipping coins for the most part, and will get vigged out.
And again, I don't see the need for Vegas (or any sports books) to fix NFL games. They do JUST fine playing it straight, and have for many many years. That coupled with the lack of evidence, whistle blowers, etc, leads me to believe they aren't involved in fixing games.
If we had some proof (and not just crazy endings to games), then you could question their motives. Or if you had a motive, then you could dig deeper into the results. But I see either existing, therefore I conclude the games aren't fixed.
OK, let's change topics. Who does everyone like this weekend, fixed or otherwise??
Vegas knows about the match up, the teams, conditions, variables, etc than the general public (a LOT more),
YES huge advantage.
im taking philly this weekend. even though denver is sb bound. philly is good enough to beat them. a fast qb did ok last week at denver, a more experienced fast qb in vick should keep it close, if not win imo
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Vegas knows about the match up, the teams, conditions, variables, etc than the general public (a LOT more),
YES huge advantage.
im taking philly this weekend. even though denver is sb bound. philly is good enough to beat them. a fast qb did ok last week at denver, a more experienced fast qb in vick should keep it close, if not win imo
Vegas knows about the match up, the teams, conditions, variables, etc than the general public (a LOT more),
YES huge advantage.
im taking philly this weekend. even though denver is sb bound. philly is good enough to beat them. a fast qb did ok last week at denver, a more experienced fast qb in vick should keep it close, if not win imo
I haven't been playing NFL too much. I have Vick in fantasy, so had a close eye on him. I am not confident in him though, and feel like he is going to get hurt at some point. Not sure how much high-tempo they plan on running at altitude either. Their pass D has not been great either. That being said, not laying 10+ with Denver vs. a team that CAN score, and has a more prolific offense than the Raiders do. Short week for Denver too, so edge to Philly there.
I'm a Cowboy fan, and I think they might lay an egg travelling out west to San Diego this week.
Houston +3 might be a decent play. If you put too much stock in just last week, you'll go broke. So I think things level out some here. Seattle was not a great road team last year.
Staying away from Indy. Impressive win last week @ SF, and Jags are putrid. So perfect spot for Jags to surprise and cover. They did beat Indy last year.
My gut says the Lions give the Bears a tough game and possibly win.
Miami + pts on MNF might be worth a look too.
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Quote Originally Posted by kaboons:
Vegas knows about the match up, the teams, conditions, variables, etc than the general public (a LOT more),
YES huge advantage.
im taking philly this weekend. even though denver is sb bound. philly is good enough to beat them. a fast qb did ok last week at denver, a more experienced fast qb in vick should keep it close, if not win imo
I haven't been playing NFL too much. I have Vick in fantasy, so had a close eye on him. I am not confident in him though, and feel like he is going to get hurt at some point. Not sure how much high-tempo they plan on running at altitude either. Their pass D has not been great either. That being said, not laying 10+ with Denver vs. a team that CAN score, and has a more prolific offense than the Raiders do. Short week for Denver too, so edge to Philly there.
I'm a Cowboy fan, and I think they might lay an egg travelling out west to San Diego this week.
Houston +3 might be a decent play. If you put too much stock in just last week, you'll go broke. So I think things level out some here. Seattle was not a great road team last year.
Staying away from Indy. Impressive win last week @ SF, and Jags are putrid. So perfect spot for Jags to surprise and cover. They did beat Indy last year.
My gut says the Lions give the Bears a tough game and possibly win.
LOL amazing how different we are and i agree on ur picks
im also a cowboys fan. no idea on the game this weekend
I like houston, jags, and lions
no clue monday night
i believe in vick, its not like he is a rookie, he is proven in this league and 2 yrs ago was the best qb in the league his time is running out I expect a strong 2 years for him.
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LOL amazing how different we are and i agree on ur picks
im also a cowboys fan. no idea on the game this weekend
I like houston, jags, and lions
no clue monday night
i believe in vick, its not like he is a rookie, he is proven in this league and 2 yrs ago was the best qb in the league his time is running out I expect a strong 2 years for him.
Out of Pitt and Carolina from the fishy lines last week, they went 1-1. Any other leans on other possible "lines that look too easy"? Think they might fix the Ravens game after they looked better last week and the Bills look like trash? We should start keeping records...if this theory delivers winners, whether its fixed or not becomes less important...
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Out of Pitt and Carolina from the fishy lines last week, they went 1-1. Any other leans on other possible "lines that look too easy"? Think they might fix the Ravens game after they looked better last week and the Bills look like trash? We should start keeping records...if this theory delivers winners, whether its fixed or not becomes less important...
Out of Pitt and Carolina from the fishy lines last week, they went 1-1. Any other leans on other possible "lines that look too easy"? Think they might fix the Ravens game after they looked better last week and the Bills look like trash? We should start keeping records...if this theory delivers winners, whether its fixed or not becomes less important...
I think the Indy line "looks" fishy, or should I say, might appear fishy to some. On paper, they should beat the Jags by 50.
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Quote Originally Posted by AfadeAday:
Out of Pitt and Carolina from the fishy lines last week, they went 1-1. Any other leans on other possible "lines that look too easy"? Think they might fix the Ravens game after they looked better last week and the Bills look like trash? We should start keeping records...if this theory delivers winners, whether its fixed or not becomes less important...
I think the Indy line "looks" fishy, or should I say, might appear fishy to some. On paper, they should beat the Jags by 50.
There's a reason why road favorites cover less than 50% and home dogs cover more than 50% of the time. It's not enough so you could blindly bet on home dogs and win all the time. But it's enough so you can tell Vegas slants the pointspread.
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There's a reason why road favorites cover less than 50% and home dogs cover more than 50% of the time. It's not enough so you could blindly bet on home dogs and win all the time. But it's enough so you can tell Vegas slants the pointspread.
There's a reason why road favorites cover less than 50% and home dogs cover more than 50% of the time. It's not enough so you could blindly bet on home dogs and win all the time. But it's enough so you can tell Vegas slants the pointspread.
Do you have numbers on that? I would bet that all combinations (home fav, home dog, road fav, road dog) are all right in the 49.5-50.5 range.
I know covers has the data somewhere for past or maybe current years, I will check.
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Quote Originally Posted by composite:
There's a reason why road favorites cover less than 50% and home dogs cover more than 50% of the time. It's not enough so you could blindly bet on home dogs and win all the time. But it's enough so you can tell Vegas slants the pointspread.
Do you have numbers on that? I would bet that all combinations (home fav, home dog, road fav, road dog) are all right in the 49.5-50.5 range.
I know covers has the data somewhere for past or maybe current years, I will check.
There's a reason why road favorites cover less than 50% and home dogs cover more than 50% of the time. It's not enough so you could blindly bet on home dogs and win all the time. But it's enough so you can tell Vegas slants the pointspread.
Yes, if that's true, we're now trying to pick the ones they pick to fix for whatever their reason is...or if they flip a coin to choose the game...or whatever..
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Quote Originally Posted by composite:
There's a reason why road favorites cover less than 50% and home dogs cover more than 50% of the time. It's not enough so you could blindly bet on home dogs and win all the time. But it's enough so you can tell Vegas slants the pointspread.
Yes, if that's true, we're now trying to pick the ones they pick to fix for whatever their reason is...or if they flip a coin to choose the game...or whatever..
Had Raiders plus 16.5, very suspicious , lucky fumble for me, not so lucky for the waitress I overheard tell her friend I just lost my bet by half a point. On Sat. NV had been a -12 favorite over HI and line dropped to like -5.5 and I bit taking the points and HI got trampled .
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Had Raiders plus 16.5, very suspicious , lucky fumble for me, not so lucky for the waitress I overheard tell her friend I just lost my bet by half a point. On Sat. NV had been a -12 favorite over HI and line dropped to like -5.5 and I bit taking the points and HI got trampled .
I can tell you this, and I actually kept track of it myself for 3 different seasons,years ago in the nfl when I was on the other side of wagering......Not consecutive seasons!...However, it doesn't really matter as you will see......The home vs. visitor, fav. vs. dog, over-unders, home dogs, road fav., road dog, favorites over a td at home and away, and much more.....BOTTOM LINE----In "every" catergory, for all 3 seasons, they were almost all 51-49 percent, 52-48 percent , and really, in 'no" category was there over a 52-48 percent difference...I was amazed, but looking back now, I shouldn't have been.....I also kept track of every team during these seasons and their ATS record....Now here, at seasons end, naturally there are teams that cover a lot more than others....I did develop several system angles....In weeks, 3 and 4....If a team was winless and GIVING POINTS, I BET AGAINST THEM, and I know I hit over 70 percent....Rarely would you have a team that's 0-4 giving pts., but it did happen....Believe WASHINGTON fits that 0-3 category this week, so, I'll take OAKLAND....Truthfully, haven't really checked others yet, or last weeks results because of problems here at home...Maybe someone can do it????....Additionally, IF A TEAM COVERED 5 WEEKS IN A ROW, I would "hit it good" against them the next week....If it would go 6 weeks, I'd triple up.....Did quite well with that....I only got my "nuts handed to me" years ago using this system when New E., as a dog, covered a lot consecutively at season's end, then went all the way through the playoffs to win the S.B.....9 consecutive covers....Now, those pounding N.E. week to week made a killing, and I was "opposite" them....NOTHING IS "EVER FOOLPROOF, EXCEPT DEATH AND TAXES.....Good luck to all!!....Hope I helped just a bit!....Go Oakland!
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I can tell you this, and I actually kept track of it myself for 3 different seasons,years ago in the nfl when I was on the other side of wagering......Not consecutive seasons!...However, it doesn't really matter as you will see......The home vs. visitor, fav. vs. dog, over-unders, home dogs, road fav., road dog, favorites over a td at home and away, and much more.....BOTTOM LINE----In "every" catergory, for all 3 seasons, they were almost all 51-49 percent, 52-48 percent , and really, in 'no" category was there over a 52-48 percent difference...I was amazed, but looking back now, I shouldn't have been.....I also kept track of every team during these seasons and their ATS record....Now here, at seasons end, naturally there are teams that cover a lot more than others....I did develop several system angles....In weeks, 3 and 4....If a team was winless and GIVING POINTS, I BET AGAINST THEM, and I know I hit over 70 percent....Rarely would you have a team that's 0-4 giving pts., but it did happen....Believe WASHINGTON fits that 0-3 category this week, so, I'll take OAKLAND....Truthfully, haven't really checked others yet, or last weeks results because of problems here at home...Maybe someone can do it????....Additionally, IF A TEAM COVERED 5 WEEKS IN A ROW, I would "hit it good" against them the next week....If it would go 6 weeks, I'd triple up.....Did quite well with that....I only got my "nuts handed to me" years ago using this system when New E., as a dog, covered a lot consecutively at season's end, then went all the way through the playoffs to win the S.B.....9 consecutive covers....Now, those pounding N.E. week to week made a killing, and I was "opposite" them....NOTHING IS "EVER FOOLPROOF, EXCEPT DEATH AND TAXES.....Good luck to all!!....Hope I helped just a bit!....Go Oakland!
I'll continue just a bit here....I "DO" believe in "fishy lines!"....Vegas makes a living from it and more reeling gamblers in...It's a good idea to make your lines before the actual ones comes out....When the lines come out, you will no doubt say "WHOA" to a few....WHEN IT SEEMS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC is on them, going opposite is the key, as evidenced last week with Minnesota as an example..But it's difficult to discipline yourself to do that....Going back to my last post, I believe MINNY was 0-2 and "GIVING POINTS!".....Eh?...Here's another tidbit, and I went against this system last night..And lost!!..If a good team loses 2 games "in a row," and they're less than a TD fav. in week 3, BET THEM....Now, you're asking "what's a "good team?"....Look at S.F. and their talent, plus pre-season hype, and that's a "good team!"......By now, we should pretty much see where the talent is in the NFL--SEATTLE, DENVER etc...Follow teams, consecutive covers, look at trends and watch those FISHY LINES....Perhaps we can share what we think are those lines here??...
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I'll continue just a bit here....I "DO" believe in "fishy lines!"....Vegas makes a living from it and more reeling gamblers in...It's a good idea to make your lines before the actual ones comes out....When the lines come out, you will no doubt say "WHOA" to a few....WHEN IT SEEMS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC is on them, going opposite is the key, as evidenced last week with Minnesota as an example..But it's difficult to discipline yourself to do that....Going back to my last post, I believe MINNY was 0-2 and "GIVING POINTS!".....Eh?...Here's another tidbit, and I went against this system last night..And lost!!..If a good team loses 2 games "in a row," and they're less than a TD fav. in week 3, BET THEM....Now, you're asking "what's a "good team?"....Look at S.F. and their talent, plus pre-season hype, and that's a "good team!"......By now, we should pretty much see where the talent is in the NFL--SEATTLE, DENVER etc...Follow teams, consecutive covers, look at trends and watch those FISHY LINES....Perhaps we can share what we think are those lines here??...
Ok thaw, good job for this year....But, I'll tell you this....In all those categories, all will eventually end up 48-52 percent....Might be a rare exception to go above 55 percent, but in my 3 years of tracking, it NEVER happened...Might add this....If during one week, as examples, let's say that 12 or more "overs" hit, or 12 or more favs, AND that puts it up to a MUCH HIGHER percentage for the season...THE FOLLOWING WEEK, take all the UNDERS OR DOGS, or whichever category it falls in!!!!....Foolish?....Just keep track!.....Same with all the other categories.....Again, I tracked for three solid years NEVER missing a stat...It will all boil down to near 50-50 by years end, and that's a guarantee....Some will scoff at this, but I did it, and tried it all....At season's end, you'll be amazed!
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Ok thaw, good job for this year....But, I'll tell you this....In all those categories, all will eventually end up 48-52 percent....Might be a rare exception to go above 55 percent, but in my 3 years of tracking, it NEVER happened...Might add this....If during one week, as examples, let's say that 12 or more "overs" hit, or 12 or more favs, AND that puts it up to a MUCH HIGHER percentage for the season...THE FOLLOWING WEEK, take all the UNDERS OR DOGS, or whichever category it falls in!!!!....Foolish?....Just keep track!.....Same with all the other categories.....Again, I tracked for three solid years NEVER missing a stat...It will all boil down to near 50-50 by years end, and that's a guarantee....Some will scoff at this, but I did it, and tried it all....At season's end, you'll be amazed!
One thing that has changed in the NFL since the 90s and 80s is the fact the NFL today has a running clock so they can control advertising. It gives the books sharper lines. If a bad team can run the ball there is less likely going to be a blow out. What happens is bad teams get field goals to a good the other teams touchdown . The point it's hard to blow teams out. The only exception is Manning and Brady when had playmakers. Those guys are so smart they can exploit weakness.
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One thing that has changed in the NFL since the 90s and 80s is the fact the NFL today has a running clock so they can control advertising. It gives the books sharper lines. If a bad team can run the ball there is less likely going to be a blow out. What happens is bad teams get field goals to a good the other teams touchdown . The point it's hard to blow teams out. The only exception is Manning and Brady when had playmakers. Those guys are so smart they can exploit weakness.
One thing that has changed in the NFL since the 90s and 80s is the fact the NFL today has a running clock so they can control advertising. It gives the books sharper lines. If a bad team can run the ball there is less likely going to be a blow out. What happens is bad teams get field goals to a good the other teams touchdown . The point it's hard to blow teams out. The only exception is Manning and Brady when had playmakers. Those guys are so smart they can exploit weakness.
I agree they do need time to think. Meanwhile you can order some pizza at the half. I wouldn't call those two smart per say. However their personas fit the picture. Brady is rich and cool. Manning gets it done but is really rich. When every channel you watch is controlled + to Maximize profits you can see how they can profit at each turn. Knowing the river card is a sure win. It's their card.
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Quote Originally Posted by veto22:
One thing that has changed in the NFL since the 90s and 80s is the fact the NFL today has a running clock so they can control advertising. It gives the books sharper lines. If a bad team can run the ball there is less likely going to be a blow out. What happens is bad teams get field goals to a good the other teams touchdown . The point it's hard to blow teams out. The only exception is Manning and Brady when had playmakers. Those guys are so smart they can exploit weakness.
I agree they do need time to think. Meanwhile you can order some pizza at the half. I wouldn't call those two smart per say. However their personas fit the picture. Brady is rich and cool. Manning gets it done but is really rich. When every channel you watch is controlled + to Maximize profits you can see how they can profit at each turn. Knowing the river card is a sure win. It's their card.
Ok thaw, good job for this year....But, I'll tell you this....In all those categories, all will eventually end up 48-52 percent....Might be a rare exception to go above 55 percent, but in my 3 years of tracking, it NEVER happened...Might add this....If during one week, as examples, let's say that 12 or more "overs" hit, or 12 or more favs, AND that puts it up to a MUCH HIGHER percentage for the season...THE FOLLOWING WEEK, take all the UNDERS OR DOGS, or whichever category it falls in!!!!....Foolish?....Just keep track!.....Same with all the other categories.....Again, I tracked for three solid years NEVER missing a stat...It will all boil down to near 50-50 by years end, and that's a guarantee....Some will scoff at this, but I did it, and tried it all....At season's end, you'll be amazed!
Yo tank wuddup.
From reading your analysis I can say we think very much alike.
I spent about 3 years analyzing data of nearly a decade of records for nfl and nba. There are a lot of angles to do better than 54-55 percent. But there are only a few that is in the 65-70 range. I spent countless months doing this. Just a job come home and crunch numbers. Then I combine all that data as a filter and play accordingly. As of last year I'm no longer losing money. Maybe by this year I should be up large. The amount of time and energy and money I spent is equivalent to a 4 year degree. Because I have a strong feeling something's will never change.
Good luck for the year.
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Quote Originally Posted by inthetank:
Ok thaw, good job for this year....But, I'll tell you this....In all those categories, all will eventually end up 48-52 percent....Might be a rare exception to go above 55 percent, but in my 3 years of tracking, it NEVER happened...Might add this....If during one week, as examples, let's say that 12 or more "overs" hit, or 12 or more favs, AND that puts it up to a MUCH HIGHER percentage for the season...THE FOLLOWING WEEK, take all the UNDERS OR DOGS, or whichever category it falls in!!!!....Foolish?....Just keep track!.....Same with all the other categories.....Again, I tracked for three solid years NEVER missing a stat...It will all boil down to near 50-50 by years end, and that's a guarantee....Some will scoff at this, but I did it, and tried it all....At season's end, you'll be amazed!
Yo tank wuddup.
From reading your analysis I can say we think very much alike.
I spent about 3 years analyzing data of nearly a decade of records for nfl and nba. There are a lot of angles to do better than 54-55 percent. But there are only a few that is in the 65-70 range. I spent countless months doing this. Just a job come home and crunch numbers. Then I combine all that data as a filter and play accordingly. As of last year I'm no longer losing money. Maybe by this year I should be up large. The amount of time and energy and money I spent is equivalent to a 4 year degree. Because I have a strong feeling something's will never change.
I'll continue just a bit here....I "DO" believe in "fishy lines!"....Vegas makes a living from it and more reeling gamblers in...It's a good idea to make your lines before the actual ones comes out....When the lines come out, you will no doubt say "WHOA" to a few....WHEN IT SEEMS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC is on them, going opposite is the key, as evidenced last week with Minnesota as an example..But it's difficult to discipline yourself to do that....Going back to my last post, I believe MINNY was 0-2 and "GIVING POINTS!".....Eh?...Here's another tidbit, and I went against this system last night..And lost!!..If a good team loses 2 games "in a row," and they're less than a TD fav. in week 3, BET THEM....Now, you're asking "what's a "good team?"....Look at S.F. and their talent, plus pre-season hype, and that's a "good team!"......By now, we should pretty much see where the talent is in the NFL--SEATTLE, DENVER etc...Follow teams, consecutive covers, look at trends and watch those FISHY LINES....Perhaps we can share what we think are those lines here??...
The first step is to believe. Then to master. If you wanna make it large. Play accordingly. I know you mean go opposite when you get that feeling. But do it large. Then you try to look at it from a seasonal percentage point of view. Don't be afraid to make money. When you get that feeling. But still manage your bankroll. Personally I never pay above 105. Every little bit matters. As al pachino says. "We have to claw for that extra inch"!!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by inthetank:
I'll continue just a bit here....I "DO" believe in "fishy lines!"....Vegas makes a living from it and more reeling gamblers in...It's a good idea to make your lines before the actual ones comes out....When the lines come out, you will no doubt say "WHOA" to a few....WHEN IT SEEMS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC is on them, going opposite is the key, as evidenced last week with Minnesota as an example..But it's difficult to discipline yourself to do that....Going back to my last post, I believe MINNY was 0-2 and "GIVING POINTS!".....Eh?...Here's another tidbit, and I went against this system last night..And lost!!..If a good team loses 2 games "in a row," and they're less than a TD fav. in week 3, BET THEM....Now, you're asking "what's a "good team?"....Look at S.F. and their talent, plus pre-season hype, and that's a "good team!"......By now, we should pretty much see where the talent is in the NFL--SEATTLE, DENVER etc...Follow teams, consecutive covers, look at trends and watch those FISHY LINES....Perhaps we can share what we think are those lines here??...
The first step is to believe. Then to master. If you wanna make it large. Play accordingly. I know you mean go opposite when you get that feeling. But do it large. Then you try to look at it from a seasonal percentage point of view. Don't be afraid to make money. When you get that feeling. But still manage your bankroll. Personally I never pay above 105. Every little bit matters. As al pachino says. "We have to claw for that extra inch"!!!!
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