Trust the Chase - Year Long Thread

Trying out some nba things myself. Interested to see how this goes. Will be staying tuned! Good luck

@JetsFan86

 Appreciate the positivity my friend! Let me know if there's a thread or something I can keep an eye on. I'm all for positive vibes!

Todays Play #1 - Knicks/Pacers Over. Total of 4 units wager.

Knicks are a game 2 play, Pacers are a game 1 play.

Currently Over/Under sits at 215.5 

Todays Play #2 - Thunder/Magic Over.  Total of 2 units wager.

Thunder and Magic are both game 1 plays.

Currently Over/Under sits at 217. 

Todays Play #3 - Hornets/76ers. Total units to wager is 28. Charlotte is on the UNDER, 76ers on the OVER.

Charlotte is a game 4 play, 76ers are a game 1.

This is the first game of the year where the system tells us to play teams on opposite sides of the action. I'll be doing exactly that, knowing one will lose. I'll use two different books, and hope to get a different line at each, but if I can't, I'll just do what the system says, hoping the under hits but recouping a little if the over hits. You can choose how to handle this situation for yourself, but I'm following the system to a T.

Currently Over/Under sits at 216.5. 

Todays Play #4 - Cavs/Hawks Over. Total of 10 units wager.

Cavs are a game 2 play, Hawks are a game 1 play.

Currently Over/Under sits at 229. 

Todays Play #5 - Raptors/Pelicans Over.  Total of 4 units wager.

Raptors are a game 2 play. Pelicans are a game 1 play.

Currently Over/Under sits at 215.5. 

So is this chase thread specifically For betting on the over? 
when you say Raptors are a two unit and pelicans are a one unit but the total units is 4? Where does that last unit go?

The chase calls for each steps bet being a multiple of 3 of the prior step.

Step 1 - 1 unit.

Step 2 - 3 units.

If one team is one step 1 and one team is on step 2, you get a total of 4 units.

Not only the over, depends on the game. Way more over bets than under bets though.

We only bet unders on games 4, 5, 6.

Games 1, 2 and 3 will always be over, locked in just before tip. We want our line as close to (or better) than Covers because the research that showed profitable was always against Covers' recorded results.

Ahh ok must had missed the steps thanks

goodluck man  

Thank you! Looks like the Charlotte game is WELL on pace to go over. If so, Charlotte becomes our first game 5 of the year. I will indeed have 81 units on their next game if this is the case.  And if that game goes over... 243 units on game 6.

And what happened if game 6 misses?

Then it's a loss. Nothing we can do about it. Game 6's lose about 3 times a year. They win about three times that amount. That's why it's so crucial to have the bankroll to be able to bet 243 units on a game 6 and still be able to keep going after a loss or two of them.

@arakias

 why cavs on a game 2 and hawks game 1 a 10 unit play?

Cavs were a game 3, typo, my apologies.

9+1 = 10.

fade for ez free wins 

Philly completes the chase on game 1 for a net of +0.91 units.

Toronto completes the chase on game 1 for a net of +1.73 units.

New Orleans completes the chase on game 1 for a net of +0.91 units.

Bankroll now sits at +9.73 units, or +$140.11 in my case.

That could change drastically (either way, good or bad) if any of the teams currently on the back end of the chase come through or miss.

Current chase statistics:

6 teams are NOT on the chase right now.

24 teams are ON the chase right now.

Teams that are on game 3 or later - 

Knicks (3), Cavs (4), Hornets (5), Lakers (4), Mavs (3), Spurs (3).

These numbers are purely for information. Do not make wagers based off of them. Wait until I post the plays.

@ballgam

 Go ahead buddy. :) I've already stated many times, I don't lose ANY money until I lose a game 6. Do whatever you want.

We will have action on every game tomorrow, for a total of roughly 64 units. 

Chance for the Lakers, Mavs, and Spurs to all close a 3 game or higher chase.

When I lose a game 6, come talk all the sh*t you want. Until then, nothing you say matters. I've already explained what I'm doing here. If you're not smart enough to read it, and understand that a game 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 loss is LITERALLY a good thing for me, then I can't explain it any better to you. All that matters is if we ever hit a game 6 loss. And there's likely to be at least 3 or 4 of those per year. But that's IT. And with this level of volume, we will end, way, way up at the end of the year. So don't worry, I'll remember to quote your posts back to you at the end of the year to see how foolish you were.

I ran this out over 4 more years this morning and the results are MUCH more sporadic... Tail at your own risk. For now, I'll keep on with the system.

Here's the yearly results for a $14.40 per unit bettor.

2019 = +23,011.08

2018 = +6,391.24

2017 = -14,462.11

2016 = -28,627.20

2015 = -2,763.93

2014 = +18,950.86

TOTAL over 6 years = +2399.91.

AGAIN, TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK. Seems when its good, its REALLY good. When its bad, its REALLY bad.

I have to stop running sheets for now to prepare for today... I plan to go back 20 years total, then check the same system against NHL and MLB to see if there is a consensus best sport.

Selection #1 Today:

Celtics/Pistons Over.

Total currently sits at 213.5.

Celtics are on game 1 of the chase, Pistons are on game 2 of the chase.

Total units to wager = 4.

Selection #2 Today:

Washington/Brooklyn Over.

Total currently sits at 241.5.

Brooklyn is on Game 1.

Total units wager = 1.

Selection #3 Today:

Lakers/Grizzles MIXED ACTION.

Lakers on Game 4, which dictates a bet on the Under, Memphis is on Game 1 which dictates a bet on the over.

I'll be doing exactly that, knowing one will lose, because I'm following the system.

27 units on the under, 1 unit on the over.

Over/Under currently sits at 219.5.

Selection #4 Today:

Nuggets/T-Wolves OVER

Total currently sits at 226.

Nuggets are a game 1 play.

Total units to bet = 1

Selection #5 Today:

Jazz/Spurs OVER

Total currently sits at 221

Jazz are a game 2 play, Spurs are a game 3 play.

Total units to wager is 12.

 So far so good

@thebookie47

 Be sure to read my note from earlier about previous years. Killed my happiness for this project but gunna roll the dice this year :)

Celtics complete game 1 of the chase, Pistons complete game 2 of the chase. Both move to inactive.

+2.64 units

Selection #6 Today:

Dallas/Chicago OVER

Total currently sitting at 225.5.

Dallas is on Game 3, Chicago is on Game.

Total units to wager is 10.

Selection #7:

Clippers/Suns OVER

Total is current at 215.5.

Clippers are on Game 1, Phoenix is on Game 2.

Total units to wager is 4.

Selection #8 Today:

Blazers/Warriors OVER

Currently sits at 235.5

Blazers are a game 1 play, Warriors are a game 2 play.

Total units to risk is 4.