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alangrrbs

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Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 4739

Posted: Jan. 25, 2014 - 2:49 PM ET #751

Pacers at Nuggets

Bizarre stat line from last nights game. Isaiah Thomas scores 38 pts...Marcus Thornton scores 42 points...nobody else above 7 points. It was like an AAU game where they only let 2 guys shoot all the shots. Went 2-2 last night...can't believe I lost another bet by .5 pts...2 nights in a row.

Anyway, on to the game tonight.

Pacers on a back to back, and they used a ton of energy last night. An OT game where the starters played 37 minutes or higher. Their offense was decent, and pulled it out in the end...I actually thought their defense was fine...they just had 2 guys go off and have the game of their lives. Same thing happened at Phoenix. To show how weird the NBA is...Suns go out and kill the Pacers...then lose to the Wizards...at home.

The Nuggets have had a weird last few games. Got beat by Portland, Phoenix, Cleveland, and Utah. They beat Golden State, Orlando, OKC, Boston, Lakers, Memphis.

And they have been scoring and letting up a ton of points. High shooting percentages, high tempo, etc. Even the low scoring teams are putting up big time points.

The Pacers played at Utah earlier this year, and guys absolutely got winded. Pacers won, but they needed oxygen on the sidelines.

I have to believe it's going to be an issue tonight. Both defenses have been struggling...and I think that's going to be an issue as well. Nuggets only shot 79 FG's and 23 3pointers against Portland...and still scored 105 points. I also like the way their roster matches up against the Pacers if they decide to push the pace. Lawson is fast enough to cause problems against the Pacers especially if the Pacers have tired legs. I have no idea what to expect out of the Pacers offense, but Denver is a pretty awful defensive team. Pacers might give their bench player some more minutes, and they should be able to exploit the mediocre at best Denver bench. Pacers bench has been really bad recently, but there's too much talent to go cold forever.

I'm going to stay away from the spread (lot of people on the Nuggets, but let's remember the Nuggets are not a good team. Not even .500).

I'm going to play the game over 201.5, and the Nuggets TT over 100. I expect a fast pace form Denver, and lots of points. That game last night took a lot out of the Pacers...I think they give up a lot of points.

GL tonight gentlemen...and if you're bored there's UFC on FoxSports, and then more on Fox tonight. Some great cappers in the MMA forum if you want to watch the fights tonight and have some action on them to make it interesting.

alangrrbs

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Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 4739

Posted: Jan. 25, 2014 - 2:50 PM ET #752

Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:

if the pacers are going to give up 60 point first halves, they might as well let chris copeland play in the 2nd quarter.

by the way, not sure if u addressed this already, but is the lance stephenson flopping fine getting to his head. we dont want the bad lance to rear its ugly head.

The fine should not have any effect. Lance has to worry more about finding his jumper right now as opposed to worrying about a fine. He should be good tonight.

jagerfury

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Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 2955

Posted: Jan. 25, 2014 - 3:49 PM ET #753

Good reasoning as always, taking Nugs 1H +1 (-105). As usual I will track the game progress, and make halftime adjustment if first wager tanks...

I'd rather be playing D&D.

DeepP0ck3ts

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2013

Posts: 447

Posted: Jan. 25, 2014 - 4:44 PM ET #754

alan ... what are the top cappers in your opinion in the MMA forums? very interested in their thoughts and writeups.. can you name a few?

thanks

BOL

Henry-Gondorff

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2013

Posts: 338

Posted: Jan. 25, 2014 - 5:46 PM ET #755

I decided to stay away from this game Allan. On to the next one!

jagerfury

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 2955

Posted: Jan. 25, 2014 - 6:29 PM ET #756

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

I had my finger on the trigger on that very bet...then wussed out. Hope it wins for you.

If it doesn't I have no problem slapping a 2H wager on IND. They will either be gassed. or they won't, in my opinion.

I'd rather be playing D&D.

alangrrbs

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Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 4739

Posted: Jan. 25, 2014 - 10:18 PM ET #757

Pacers are absolutely exhausted. Gotta expect Denver to keep pushing the pace, and not sure if the Pacers have the energy to hit the shots.

Pacers TT is set at 53.5...definitely going to play the under on that.

Big thanks to Jagerfury...he talked me into taking the Nuggets 1h. I'm certainly not going to take credit for that play, but it was the right play and proved profitable. Great job Jager.

Efini

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 770

Posted: Jan. 25, 2014 - 10:31 PM ET #758

Alan,

What do you think of taking Pacers ml live bet? Or does the altitude take its toll on Indy as the game progresses?

alangrrbs

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 4739

Posted: Jan. 25, 2014 - 11:01 PM ET #759

Quote Originally Posted by Efini:

Alan,

What do you think of taking Pacers ml live bet? Or does the altitude take its toll on Indy as the game progresses?

After watching them put up 40 pts in the 3rd...I have no clue what they do from here.

alangrrbs

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 4739

Posted: Jan. 26, 2014 - 12:05 AM ET #760

Nice little 2-1 night tonight. Missed the 2h

Play, but the 2 pregame plays came through. Feels good after a couple of nights of 1/2 pt losses. Pacers were just too tired after an OT game last night...they made a very impressive run, but their legs just came up short. Hope everyone turned a profit tonight

jagerfury

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Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 2955

Posted: Jan. 26, 2014 - 10:37 AM ET #761

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

he talked me into taking the Nuggets 1h. I'm certainly not going to take credit for that play, but it was the right play and proved profitable.

We got a winner there...

I'd rather be playing D&D.

newpacerfan

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2013

Posts: 15

Posted: Jan. 26, 2014 - 1:04 PM ET #762

Thanks to Jager and Alan, a conservative 2-0 last night. Thanks guys! Was looking at Suns at Cavs, I think the newness of Dang has worn off and teams have adjusted. Suns off a very sloppy game at Wash. with very correctable turnover and rebounding errors.Home court advantage will be negligible When all is said and done, a decent team vs. a crappy team plus you get 2 pts., am I missing something?

alangrrbs

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Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 4739

Posted: Jan. 26, 2014 - 1:24 PM ET #763

Quote Originally Posted by newpacerfan:

My rule in NBA is to only cap Pacers games. Can't help with that game.

jagerfury

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 2955

Posted: Jan. 27, 2014 - 3:45 PM ET #764

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

My rule in NBA is to only cap Pacers games. Can't help with that game.

A golden rule of gambling there! Pick a team, know that team, study that team. Even doing that you still won't hit better than 60-65%. That should tell you how hard it is to beat the books.

So hats off to cappers like alangrrbs who help shine a light in the darkness.

Frankly, not placing a wager every day, but instead focusing on opportunities during the week keeps you fresh, and stress free...

I'd rather be playing D&D.

imallin07

Rookie

Joined: Jul, 2011

Posts: 504

Posted: Jan. 27, 2014 - 3:51 PM ET #765

Love this ^^^

jagerfury

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 2955

Posted: Jan. 27, 2014 - 3:56 PM ET #766

Time to look at IND's next opponent LAL. Here is some info from LAL's blog from their last game on the east coast;

21
Second-chance points for the Knicks, compared to just six for the Lakers. New York, ranked 28th in the league in rebounds per game, owned a plus-10 edge on the glass and a plus-11 advantage on the offensive boards.

18
Points for Manny Harris – a season high – in 19 minutes off the bench. Harris, who was signed to his second 10-day contract earlier in the day, scored 11 in six fourth-quarter minutes to help keep L.A. within striking distance.

11
Plus-rating for Raymond Felton (tied with Tyson Chandler for a team high). Felton scored a season-high 20 points on 8 of 10 field goals, to go along with a team-high five assists.

9
Field goals made for New York inside the paint in the fourth quarter, which accounted for 18 of their 27 points. The Knicks, last in the league in paint points per game (33.5), registered 18 in the final 12 minutes.

6
Triples made for Jodie Meeks towards a team-high 24 points. Meeks was particularly effective in the third, when he scored 16 on 5 of 5 field goals (4 of 4 on three-pointers). In the last five games, the Kentucky product is shooting 57.1 percent from beyond the arc (16 for 28).

What does all this mean? I don't know. I let alan give the insight, and try and get the best line...

I'd rather be playing D&D.

alangrrbs

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Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 4739

Posted: Jan. 28, 2014 - 12:12 PM ET #767

Pacers at Lakers

Pacers are wrapping up their road trip...Lakers are coming back from a looooong road trip. Pacers need this win to go 3-2 on their west coast swing, and the Lakers...I'm not sure what the Lakers mindset is right now. 10 out of their last 11 games were on the road, and I'm sure their happy to be at home. Pacers have had 2.5 full days of rest since their last game, and they needed it bad.

So where does that leave us for this game? This is a tough game to handicap. If you just look at recent games you can see both teams struggling, but the situation is different tonight with the Pacers having rest, and the Lakers finally at home.

It's tough to find many trends with the Lakers, but the biggest trend is that they can't rebound. They are getting outrebounded about every night. They are taking way less shots than their opponents, but their shooting percentage is high. Pacers tend to dominate the boards most nights...tonight should be no exception. Looking back at the last few games the Pacers have played the common thing is that the backcourt of the opponents are scoring at will. Phoenix, Sacramento and Denver were all hitting outside shots, and getting to the rim. Does this Lakers team have the ability to do that?

Pacers ran into two teams shooting lights out in Phoenix and Sacramento, and because so much energy was drained they hardly put up a fight against Denver. However, Vogel and this staff has been great at making adjustments when they have days off. The Pacers don't have to make a ton of adjustments, but I think they will tweak a couple things on offense and defense.

Plays for tonight. Looking at the Lakers past games, since they struggle so much on the boards, I think they are going to struggle with getting a lot of possessions, especially in the first half. I'm taking the Lakers TT 1h 48.5 under. I think the Pacers play spirited defense in the first half, and hold the Lakers to under 45% shooting. However, I'm also taking the game total over 205. In the Lakers last games there have been tons of points scored in the second half...I can see lots of points in the 2h here as well, and I don't see how the Lakers are going to slow the Pacers offense, especially with rest. If the Lakers are going to it close (which they might), they are going to have to push the pace and get their guards going....lots of points in the 2h.

I'm thinking really hard about taking the Lakers +10. Not going to do it right now, but if this line goes up a bit, I'll play it. I'll see what it's at later today.

GL today gentlemen

composite

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Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4418

Posted: Jan. 28, 2014 - 1:09 PM ET #768

I thought there's a system of betting AGAINST the home team coming back from a long road trip. The theory was that upon return, the players just want to enjoy being home rather than playing.

diondimucci

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 12934

Posted: Jan. 28, 2014 - 1:13 PM ET #769

i think the lakers will be a step slow and wont be able to run and gun like the suns, kings and nuggets were able to do. this feels like an indy vs washington kind of game. indy 99 lakers 82

alangrrbs

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Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 4739

Posted: Jan. 28, 2014 - 1:49 PM ET #770

Quote Originally Posted by composite:

I thought there's a system of betting AGAINST the home team coming back from a long road trip. The theory was that upon return, the players just want to enjoy being home rather than playing.

I don't know if there is or not, but that's a system that doesn't take a lot into account. Doesn't take into account the other teams current state, the line the book makes, recent trends, etc.

HugeLetDown

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2014

Posts: 535

Posted: Jan. 28, 2014 - 3:41 PM ET #771

Surprised you are considering the lakers. I thought for sure this was THE spot in which Indiana puts together an A+ game for an easy win. Appreciate the insight.

noles252

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Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 1246

Posted: Jan. 28, 2014 - 3:47 PM ET #772

I love Indy in this spot for obvious reason of the Lakers trip as mentioned before and coming off a loss. Surprised you don't as well.

diondimucci

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 12934

Posted: Jan. 28, 2014 - 4:53 PM ET #773

you recall last years meeting at staples. both teams shot in the 30 percent. and 60 percent from the line. it was amazing so many shots that were in and out.

george hill at the buzzer 79-77 pacers as an 8 point underdog.

denniep

Rookie

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 911

Posted: Jan. 28, 2014 - 5:18 PM ET #774

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Pacers at Lakers

Pacers are wrapping up their road trip...Lakers are coming back from a looooong road trip. Pacers need this win to go 3-2 on their west coast swing, and the Lakers...I'm not sure what the Lakers mindset is right now. 10 out of their last 11 games were on the road, and I'm sure their happy to be at home. Pacers have had 2.5 full days of rest since their last game, and they needed it bad.

So where does that leave us for this game? This is a tough game to handicap. If you just look at recent games you can see both teams struggling, but the situation is different tonight with the Pacers having rest, and the Lakers finally at home.

It's tough to find many trends with the Lakers, but the biggest trend is that they can't rebound. They are getting outrebounded about every night. They are taking way less shots than their opponents, but their shooting percentage is high. Pacers tend to dominate the boards most nights...tonight should be no exception. Looking back at the last few games the Pacers have played the common thing is that the backcourt of the opponents are scoring at will. Phoenix, Sacramento and Denver were all hitting outside shots, and getting to the rim. Does this Lakers team have the ability to do that?

Pacers ran into two teams shooting lights out in Phoenix and Sacramento, and because so much energy was drained they hardly put up a fight against Denver. However, Vogel and this staff has been great at making adjustments when they have days off. The Pacers don't have to make a ton of adjustments, but I think they will tweak a couple things on offense and defense.

Plays for tonight. Looking at the Lakers past games, since they struggle so much on the boards, I think they are going to struggle with getting a lot of possessions, especially in the first half. I'm taking the Lakers TT 1h 48.5 under. I think the Pacers play spirited defense in the first half, and hold the Lakers to under 45% shooting. However, I'm also taking the game total over 205. In the Lakers last games there have been tons of points scored in the second half...I can see lots of points in the 2h here as well, and I don't see how the Lakers are going to slow the Pacers offense, especially with rest. If the Lakers are going to it close (which they might), they are going to have to push the pace and get their guards going....lots of points in the 2h.

I'm thinking really hard about taking the Lakers +10. Not going to do it right now, but if this line goes up a bit, I'll play it. I'll see what it's at later today.

GL today gentlemen

Appreciate what you do here. Actually going to the Pacers game Feb 7th against Portland.

Was hoping you'd say Pacers -10 instead of Lakers. I just think they will come out pissed off, Vogel has probably preached the piss poor starts they've had this trip so far first half, and the Pacers just come out and throttle them. I also think the bench will finally wake up as the Lakers play absolutely no D. Their going to have Ryan Kelly on PG???

You also mentioned they want a winning road trip, with the extra rest and the Lakers travel, i just dont see this Lakers team keeping the game within 10 points.

Appreciate what you do here. Actually going to the Pacers game Feb 7th against Portland.

You also mentioned they want a winning road trip, with the extra rest and the Lakers travel, i just dont see this Lakers team keeping the game within 10 points.

jagerfury

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 2955

Posted: Jan. 28, 2014 - 7:32 PM ET #775

Quote Originally Posted by shaps17:

never liked betting double digits on a road team no matter what. pass and wait for a better opportunity

That's smart gambling right there. I won't be taking this good advice though, and will most likely pick a side for the 1H closer to game time...

I'd rather be playing D&D.

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