PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

Pacers at Kings

After by far the most frustrating losing night of the season, I'm looking to rebound as the Pacers continue their west coast trip against the Kings.

There really isn't a whole lot to write up about these two teams.  The Pacers defense got shredded by a much faster team (Suns) who shot lights out.  I watched the entire game, and they did get a lot of open shots, but they also were able to get to the rim and finish, and they hit a lot of contested jumpers.  Pacers D was not playing good by any stretch, but they were better than the 124 points showed.

The offense was good when the starters were out on the floor, but the second unit came in and laid an absolute egg in the first half.  It's becoming very obvious that they are going to have to figure out what to do with Mahimni.  He's a liability on offense, and he's not a defensive presence anymore.  He's just the classic "6-fouls walking" guy.  Granger isn't scoring a ton, but I have to believe that if he was playing with the starters he would be getting more points.

The Kings are dealing with some injuries, and we aren't going to know for sure until tip, but I read a report that said Rudy is in a walking boot for 3-5 days with an achilles sprain (an injury you don't want to mess with) so I have to believe he's out.  With Cousins, it's hard to know...it just depends how much pain he's in.  Either way he's going to be hobbled.

Last game against the Pacers, Cousins was a monster (like always), and everyone else struggled.  Without Rudy in there, I have to believe we see more of the same.  The Kings just came off a 6 game road trip where they got destroyed by the Pacers, Rockets, and Thunder.  They beat the lesser teams.

The Kings aren't terrible at home, but they do give up a lot of points.  Definitely going to take the Pacers TT over 103.  All the good offenses they've faced have blown past that number.  Houston-119, OKC-108, MIN-108, POR-119, PHI-113, etc.  Also, going to take the Pacers -10 (or 10.5).  This is a ripe spot for the Pacers to regain their momentum.  They are playing a team with their 2 best players either out or hurt, and the Pacers will not want to let up in the 4th.  They are going to want to make a statement.

Last play I'm going to make is Pacers TT 1Q over 26.5.  Last game against the Suns, the Pacers starters scored a ton of points, and the reserves killed the 1h total.  I feel like the Pacers starters in the first quarter should be able to score at will against this team that ranks 28th in points allowed. 

Tough results last game, but that will happen occasionally.  Looking for a big Pacers win tonight.

GL tonight gents

Cousins and happy out $$$$

Great stuff alan, appreciate this insight. Like all three, the TT, 1Q TT, and the spread. I actually took the Suns on Wednesday on the ML and spread. Super small play though I wasn't too confident when I places it. Felt odd doing it because obviously Pacers are the better team (only been betting seriously for 3 years, learning how to embrace the dogs haha). I thought the line was inflated a bit too much with it being a nationally televised game But it felt great to cash even though they were small. 

Cousins and happy are both OUT for tonight's game...

Hey Alan- I use your analysis to help me with Daily Fantasy Sports rather than sports betting, so your insight on Stephenson was incredibly helpful.

Think most things win but went with Pacers first half minus 7 minus 15

Goodluck tonight.

Pacers still 1 of the best ATS teams out there.

I believe it will even out sooner or later.

Nice work!

Interesting...I'm very opinionated about fantasy sports and a lot of "fantasy experts".

I don't think that is the case if the Pacers are getting blown out.  If the Pacers are ahead by 10-15 points, Vogel will keep his starters in til the last minute, but will run a very slow offense.  There have been 2 instances this year where Lance was a couple rebounds or a couple points away from a triple double and they left him in so he could get that, but that's about it.

Garbage time is impossible to predict.  You don't know when it's going to happen...you don't know who's going to benefit.  Depending on garbage time minutes for fantasy value is a bad strategy...I don't know who wrote that, but I would say they are not true fantasy experts.  To determine fantasy value you look at a players production in standard games, and right now Lance is a great value due to his points, rebounds, and assists.  His shot has been a little off, but it will come back, and he still gets to the basket...and tonight is about as good of a situation as it gets to use him.

If you're looking at the Pacers-Kings game tonight a really cheap, deep sleeper that could be great value is Luis Scola.  David West is dealing with a wrist injury.  If the Pacers get up, West may get a lot of rest, and Scola may get a lot of minutes. They may also try and limit West's minutes because of this long road trip, and they have bigger fish to fry.  Not sure what Scola's cost is in daily leagues, but if he's at the lowest price, you might get 10-12 pts, 5 rebs out of him tonight.  That could open up a lot of options on the rest of your roster for tonight. 

Taking 1HU -97.5 (-110)...

I'm getting really sick of losing bets by .5 pts.  That 1q bet was reeeally frustrating. 

Of course it was predictable that Marcus Thornton would go for 26 pts in the first half. 

I watched the first half, and Sacramento came out of the gates on fire, but cooled off in the second quarter.  Not sure if they can keep it up.  I'll take a little bit on the Pacers -10.5 in the second half...basically to win the game.  Sacramento can fold once the pressure gets put on them...I have to believe the Pacers tighten up and get the win here.  Kings don't have a go to guy on this team, and if this game get close I can see them getting sloppy.  Their offense wasn't anything special like what the Suns did...it was mostly some isolation drives that guys hit some shots on.  I'm not sure that translates once the Pacers make adjustments at halftime. 

Let's get it

Pacers will never win anything with G hill at point guard

Another potential winning night...except losing the 1q by .5 point.  This is the part of the season where grinding out a profit can be tough.  2-2 tonight...Pacers are going to have a brutal matchup against the nuggets after OT and in high altitude.  Could be a lot of potential in the Nuggets point totals.  Hope they throw out some good lines tomorrow.

Henry- gotta do some research and look at Nuggets roster and trends. Initial thoughts are taking nuggets 1h and TT over.

Never seen so many bs trolls in this thread before.  

Five of the 8 Pacer losses came from a B2B, and they're all road losses too. It couldn't get any worse for them. Played OT tonight and gets to dance with the high octane Nuggets tomorrow on high altitude.

if the pacers are going to give up  60 point first halves, they might as well let chris copeland play in the 2nd quarter.  

this will be the first total over 200 for the pacers.  but im still taking over then the next game at staples will surely be even higher