Also, Nuggets coming back down 3-1 in back-to-back series gets the public excited as well, well, the fact they came back from 3-1 down is another reason to take the Lakers tonight, LA knows this team is dangerous and will likely bring one of their best games this playoffs to put this team away for good . And with Celtics winning game 5 and a possible 2 more games what more incentive do you think Lakers need to bring a huge game tonight ?
NBA FINALS....................................................
Power Rating I.......
Lakers 5.32................LA by 1.67
Heat 3.65
1980-2019............TEAMS BETTER BY 1.25 or better are 23-7 winning the series 77%, that includes last season loss when Durant and Thompson were both out and method on Warriors.
Power Rating II..........
Lakers 53.7..... LA by 2.24
Heat 51.46
1980-2019...........teams better by .75 or better are 26-7 at winning the series 79% which includes being on Warriors last season with both Durant and Thompson out.
The info strongly suggest the Lakers should win this series....................
PLAYOFF ONLY POWER RATINGS.....................................
when we have seen upsets the playoff only was there to call a closer matchup.
when regular season and playoff only are on the same team , that team wins series a high % of time.
when regular season and playoff only are on oppisite teams then we see upsets about 50% of the time
Power Rating I..............
Lakers 8.17......by 3.37
Heat 4.8
Power Rating II.....
Lakers 56.2.....by 4.11
Heat 52.09
Although the Heat have really improved in playoffs it's the Lakers who've gone to a very strong level of play. Historically this is exactly what LBJ has been know to do, play much better in playoffs then regular season as we have mentioned a few times in playoffs.
Another method that has worked very well calling upsets is USING PR II but giving each team extra wieght for shooting efficiency, when we do this.....
Lakers by 5.22 over Heat
The way the Heat have played it did seem possible maybe they could win the chip, but now after running all the numbers and looking back at history I don't think the Heat can beat the Lakers.
Here's a very telling stat, good ole FG% margin, how much each team has out-shoot their opps................................................
Lakers by 4.8%
Heat by .7%
wow, the Heat are 12-3 but barely out-played their opps while Lakers crushed theirs.
LAKERS TO WIN 2020 FINALS...................................................
MY LINES.............................
Lakers -1.67 over Heat
Playoff only line........
Lakers by 3.37 over Heat
Heat off 1 ATS win while Lakers off 1 ATS win and 1 push. The team that wins series generally wins game 1 and covers a good amount of time, this spot favors Lakers.
Although the value does seem to be on Heat based on my lines , My lines don't work as well in game 1's, they have worked much better in game 2's, with the spot favoring the Lakers, Lakers are the play tonight.
GAME 2 MY LINES.......................................... Heat recieve 2 additional pts off a loss.
Heat -.33 over Lakers
Lakers -1.37 over Heat, playoff only line
How many pts is Bam and Dragic worth ? They would need to be worth 9 pts to have no play. The value is on the Heat , the Heat should get a cover this game or next.
Heat +10.5 over Lakers --- 1.1 units
GAME 3............MY LINES............................
Heat -2.33 over Lakers
Heat off a SU loss and trailing 2-0 but off 1 ATS win. Very good spot for the Heat if they were healthy. If Goran and Bam are both out again, how many points would they be worth ?
Teams down 0-2 and a 1 pt diff from my lines to closing line is 8-5-1 ATS in Finals since 92. With a 4.5 diff is 4-1-1 ATS.
So the question is how many pts are the 2 injuried players worth ? They would need to be worth 7.5 pts to be within the 4.5 diff.
Play is on the Heat with a possible SU win.
Game 4..................My Lines.........................
Heat -.33 over Lakers
Heat off 2 ATS wins but to get that one needed to be on the best line of +10.5 in game 2, alot of Laker money cashed at earlier line and some pushed at -10.
Heat down 2-1 and the value continues to be on them according to my lines, the play is on the Heat.
Heat +7.5 (-115) over Lakers --- 1.15 units
Game 5 .............My Lines..........................
Lakers -1.67 over Heat
Lakers -3.37 ......playoff only line
Heat off dreaded 3 ATS wins, not a good spot for the Heat. Heat appear to still carry all the value according to my lines.
Here's something very interesting, wanted to post this before game 4 but was ssooo busy that day just forgot about it.
My Lines with series 2-1 and a 1 pt diff to closing line.......10-5 ATS.
If the team is off A SU win...... 7-2 ATS
Off a SU loss ............... 3-3 ATS
Of course the Heat were off a SU win in game 3 and got the cover.
My Lines with series 3-1 and a 1 pt diff ......9-5 ATS..................ALMOST INDENTICAL TO 2-1 SERIES
WITH a 2 pt diff......7-3 ATS
WITH a 2 pt diff and off a SU win 6-2 ATS.................SON OF A GUN ALMOST INDENTICAL AGAIN
Off a SU loss...............1-1 ATS........
WITH A 1 PT DIFF AND OFF a SU loss...............3-3 ATS....................wow, same result as 2-1 series.
All closeout games............................................
normally we don't use my lines in closeout games but in the finals they seem to work very well........................
21-9 ATS IN all closeout games with any lean
13-6 ATS with a 1 pt diff
10-4 ATS with a 2 pt diff
with a 2 pt diff and off a SU win .......5-0 ATS
WITH A 2 PT DIFF AND OFF a SU loss........5-4 ATS
It appears teams off A SU win are better plays in this spot with teams off SU losses only around 50%. Plus Heat off 3 ATS wins, 2 reasons I wouldn't back the Heat tonight.
However the value still appears to be on the Heat according to my lines but based on better plays with teams off a SU win which we already won in this spot with the Heat in game 4 I will pass on this game 5.
Thanks for the kind words bob...........................
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