NBA Bubble Playoffs.........................2020 Style

...... Celtics should get game 1, and win the series.

Clippers -5 1st half --- 2.2 units

1-1 ATS --- lost 2.2 units

MY LINES......,.........game 7

Clips -4.15 over Nuggets

 Clippers off 2 SU & ATS losses and in a 3rd closeout game. Very good spot for Clips.

Clips -7.5 over Nuggets --- 4.4 units

Clips/Nuggets OVER 207.5 --- 1.1 units

Clips -5 1st half --- 2.2 units

game --- 0-2 ATS, lost 6.6 units

totals --- 0-1, lost 1.1 units

1st half --- 0-1 ATS, lost 2.2 units

pretty pathetic performance 0-4, lost 9.9 units

Clippers were just as pathetic, both Kawhi and George, brutal way to end the season for Clippers losing a 3-1 lead.

Celtics seem to be playing well, well enough to win game 1  but the Heat's defense just looks suffacating to me when it mattered most. Bam's block was historically great. Miami just has that look if we throw stats and key indicators aside. However, if Celtics make some adjustments and make shoots while Heat miss shots things can be quite different.

Would expect the Celtics to be super-charged and ready tonight, plus, could the Heat lose just 1 game enroute to the finals ? Doesn't seem very likely they can keep winning at such a high rate, Celtics should be able to get a couple wins minimum if not come-back and win the series.

Nuggets look pretty impressive as well if we throwout the key stats and indicators, seems they have a much tougher path beating Clippers and then Lakers in back-to-back series especially seeing they were down 3-1 and expended alot of energy and effort to come back.

MY LINES --- Celtics -1.7 over Heat

Celtics off 1 SU & ATS loss while Heat off 2 ATS wins, better spot for Celtics especially trailing 1-0.

Celtics -2.5 over Heat --- 2.2 units

0-1 ATS, lost 2.2 units

Once again Celtics in a very good position to win but it was Heat's defense that shut them down. Celtics look tenative  and had trouble getting good shots.

The Heat definately have that look of a very good, tough team, a championship team. 10-1 SU & ATS in playoffs, that's just crazy for a team was what, a 4th or  5th seed ? That's historical stuff.

One possible explanation for lower seeded teams doing well like The Heat and Nuggets is, if we look at my Power Ratings only the Bucks were high rated with what we normally find with a no. 1 seed , the 2 seeds and Lakers as a no. 1 seed  were low rated relative to past years. 

PR I  Clippers would of ranked 4th last year and 5th in 2018. In PR II Clippers would have ranked 4th again last year and 6th in 2018.

Lakers would have ranked 5th in PR I last year and 6th in 2018. However PR II Lakers would have ranked 2cd last year but 5th in 2018. One difference in the 2 teams is LBJ has a history of performing better in the playoffs, although Kawhi has not played in as many games so could be a reason they rank a little lower then maybe they should.

Only the Bucks ranked high but they never seemed to do well after coming back off a long lay-off and in the bubble. It only makes sense that lower seeded teams have done so well, when we look at it from that point. Unfortunately I wasn't into things the way I normally would have been because of the situation or I possibly could have seen something like this coming with such weaker then normal top teams.

Generally over the years we have found that weaker 1 and 2 seeds don't do well and I have talked about this many times in the past.

It's possible we could see a surprise team win the title that we'd normally not see. Of course it wouldn't be a surprise now with the way the Heat and Nuggets have played. By surprise I mean surprise based on the start of playoffs.

MY LINES........................................game 1

Lakers -3.8 over Nuggets 

Lakers off 4 ATS wins, Nuggets off 3 ATS wins, not a great spot for either team. Thus far teams off 3 ATS wins are 2-5 ATS, WITH THE Bucks pushing, had you played Bucks on the early line game 5 you'd of won so at best you'd be 3-5 ATS backing teams off 3 ATS wins. 

Nuggets off a brutal stretch of must win games and a game 7 then playing a top team, not a great spot either, but Lakers are only -3.8 with my lines, not a great spot for Lakers.

All the value seems to be on nuggets according to my lines, when my line has a 1 pt difference or more on the dog, the dog has covered at least 1 game in the first 2 game 6 of 9 times. Suggests the Nuggets should cover game 1 or game 2, to many bad situations against the Nuggets to back them game 1, we'll pass and wait for game 2.

Claw whats up with your capping? I used to follow you in NFL however your NBA ones are horrendous. Anyone that follows u right now are deep in the hole.

Lately been pretty dreadful for sure.

Lakers roll game 1, now LA off 5 ATS wins and my lines will be on the Nuggets as line opens 1 pt higher then open game 1.

Not to surprised to see LA roll as teams off game 7 then playing a top team do get blowout a good number of times. Nuggets did come back and make final score respectable unfortunately, had the blowout continued would of been a really great regression spot to fade the Lakers who would of been off two 20 pt or more blowouts and 5 ATS wins.

MY LINES...............................

Celtics -3.7 over Heat

Lines at -3 now, we need at least a 1 point difference, line needs to drop to -2.5 before we have a play. My lines thus far in conference finals with a 1 pt diff is 1-1 VS the books line.

Celtics off 2 AST & SU losses while the Heat off the dreaded 3 ATS wins, 2-6 ATS  after Nuggets failed to cover off 3 ATS wins game 1 or 3-6 ATS if you got early line on Bucks game.

Celtics players arguing after game 2 loss is a good thing as it shows players are fed-up with losing, if you heard Shag say players on his championship teams argued all the time, listen to the players, not the media. Shag says losing teams don't argue much, basically they accept losing, arguing shows you don't accept losing.

I heard a radio show talking about this saying it can only hurt the Celtics with about a 1% chance of helping them, media gets this stuff wrong far more then right.

I don't see anyway to go but on Celtics.

But as we talked about, the Heat they just have that look of confidence, chemistry, focus and undieing belief they can win every game with a suffacating defense. I wouldn't go against the Heat unless the line drops to at least 2.5.

The way the Heat are playing you'd think the public would back them and keep backing them but we haven't found that, kind of surprising, if they drive this line higher, my goodness they don't belive in the Heat and keep thinking the Heat can't sustain this run.  If the line goes much higher we'd see a large line adjustment on the Celtics off the game 1 open of Celtics -1.5, would mean a play on the Heat.

One thing we can watch for is when/if the public starts backing the Heat, that'll be the time to fade them. They may lose before that but that is a good indicator to look for if they don't lose before that.

Pass at this time, we'll waitout the line and see how the public reacts .

Line is up to -3.5 with even  -4, still time before tip-off, this line may go up even more.

May make a play on the total, DON'T SEE MUCH MOVEMENT  but will wait it out a bit longer. 

This game tonight is the most interesting game in the sense that , can the Heat keep winning even when Celtics are in absolute desperate mode and will bring huge focus and energy to this game, if the Heat win again, it will be insane. Wonder how the public will react to this dominance in the next game of this series and in the finals, I can't imagine they'll keep going against the Heat, at what point will it take the public to jump on this run-away train ?

Just what the Celtics needed to do, break-through with a dominating game. That dreaded off 3 ATS wins strikes again , now 2-7 ATS OR 3-7 ATS if you got early line on Bucks.  Once a team gets a big break-through they'll play with much more confidence knowing they can win in the clutch.

Bucks couldn't get a similar break-through, they barely squeezed out a close win when they were down 3-0, I believe Celtics now will come-back and win the series. Teams down 0-2 don't come-back and win the series very often but the probabilities are much higher if the team down 0-2 is the better team with common denominators of past champs which the Celtics are borderline to having. 

MY LINES.......................................................

Lakers -3.8 over Nuggets

Lakers off 5 ATS wins, if only they had kept the blowout going to final bell we'd have a great spot to play dog on the ML, BUT STILL A VERY GOOD SPOT TO BACK THE nUGGETS HERE.

All the value seems to be on Nuggets according to my lines, however, LBJ has beaten my lines pretty consistently in the past as he underperforms in regular season. 

Nuggets almost certainly should get a cover in one of next 2 games if we lose here we can up our play game 3.

Nuggets +7.5 over Lakers --- 2.2 units

1-0 ATS, won 2 units

MY LINES .....................................

Lakers -1.8 over Nuggets

Very good  spot for Nuggets down 0-2 and a 2.5 diff or better to my lines

Nuggets +6.5 --- 2.2 units

1-0 ATS, won 2 units

MY LINES.......................................

Celtics -1.7 over Heat

Very good spot for Celtics tonight, behind 2-1 and  the better team. However, my lines has the Heat with more then a 1 point diff, possible the Celtics will win a game in this series but not cover even considering such a small line. Maybe it's tonight and maybe another night but something worth considering.

The only way I could go is on the Celtics tonight.

Celtics -3 over Heat --- 1.1 units

0-1 ATS, lost 1.1 units

MY LINES....................................

Lakers -3.8 over Nuggets

Nuggets off 2 ATS wins, not the best of spots for Nuggets, not a terrible spot either but not the best.

The value seems to be on both dogs in these conference finals according to my lines. My lines with at least a 1 point diff to closing line have been closer to the final score in 4  of 5 games then the books line.

Doubtful my lines will continue to dominate the books line at such a high rate, wouldn't surprise me to see either team win and/or cover tonight.

Will have to pass on this game , likely we can find better spots in the coming games.

Look ahead.................

Heat VS Nuggets in the finals, my line would be.................................... Heat -2.13 over Nuggets, this based on regular season, based on playoff only line would likely be Heat favored by more.

Heat VS Lakers................................................Lakers -1.67, value appears to be all over the dog.

It appears Heat will be the team to back in Finals.

My Lines,,....................

Celtics -1.7 over Heat

Closeout game for Heat, closeout games we don't use my Lines.  The best teams when they are clearly the better team generally close it out on first try.

But here Celtics are the better team , in these cases the series doesn't end in first closeout opportunity.

Play tonight is on Celtics

Celtics -3 over Heat --- 1.1 units

1-0 ATS, won 1 unit

MY LINES.................................................

Lakers -3.8 over Nuggets

Nuggets off 2 ATS wins and a push, not a good spot for the Nuggets, not as bad as off 3 ATS wins but not a good spot.

if AD is  out, how many pts is he worth ? At bare minimum 1.5 to 2 pts, that puts my line at LA -2 to -2.3, the value is on the Nuggets according to my line, however, in closeout games we don't use my lines, LA clearly the better team with common denominators of past champs and generally these teams win win and cover in first closeout try.

LA is already 2-0 SU but 1-1 ATS in first closeout try this playoffs. Game 4 or 5  is not the best games though to play the closeout method, LA likely closes things out tonight even without AD.

We do have a large line adjustment in play tonight, with 3 Straight overs all 221 or above beating the line by 9, 14.5 and 15.5, to many high scoring games in a row and the public is sucking this line up grabbing the over. Closeout games go under more then not "IF" LA does close it out then they would have been focused on defense throughout.

Lakers -5 over Nuggets --- 1.1 units

LA/Nuggets UNDER 216.5 --- 2.2 units