NBA Bubble Playoffs.........................2020 Style

Hello everyone, I'm a little late to the party, was not sure how this bubble thing would work and if it were even worth trying to call the games. But everything has workout just fine, like it always has even though we don't have different situational angles of home and away.

Did pretty well thus far, was 2-0 ATS YESTERDAY with Celtics and the under in Clips/Mavs game which I did post on another thread , 3-1 ATS over the weekend. 5-1 ATS last weekend. It appears the bubble has not really affected how things work.

Will get around to posting the Power Ratings at some point.

MY LINES.............................................................

Bucks -7 over Heat

very good spot for the Bucks here, top, strong teams like the Bucks rarely lose back-to-back series game 1's. The fact Bucks did not come focused VS Magic in game 1 and combine that with Heat beating the Bucks this season 2-1 will grab this far better teams attention and they come out very focused and cruise past the Heat in game 1.

OKC -.78 over Rockets

we don't use my lines in close out games, this is a pretty evenly matched series,  in a evenly matched series it's not a good bet for a team to get the closeout in the first oppurtunity.

Bucks -5.5 over Heat --- 3.3 units

OKC +5.5 over Rockets --- 1.1 units

Best of luck The Claw ??

Good to see you claw 

I was leaning heats so bucks might be a winner...

I did see your comments in others thread..I see you are leaning Utah? Why are you leaning Utah?

After seeing game 6 Utah got no solution for Jamal.. and Utah's offence rely heavy on 3 pointers... They dribble around and try to pass to open players and shoot 3's...not sure why other cannot attach the rim...

Nice to see you still around midnight, I did see some of your picks. I did have  the Jazz to win series over Nuggets and still think they will. Nuggets are one of the worst 3 seeds since 1980. I also had the Nuggets after being down 3-1 coming back to tie the series as Jazz were in a regression spot. Jazz are slightly better team.

My Line was Jazz -1.95 in the first 2 games when the Nuggets were a 3 to 4.5 favorite. Nuggets got away with winning game 1 in OT but the Jazz rolled them in game 2.

If we look at the progression of games played by Murray, it's telling us he has peaked and could very well be heading down. Look at his EFG % IN THE LAST 3 GAMES..................

GAME 4.... 72.6%

GAME 5.....73 %

GAME 6 .....89.4 %

TO shoot over 70 % is crazy enough and not sustainable for very long but then to jump all the way to almost 90% is telling us he has peaked at a very high extreme level, remember, regression follows extreme performances. What goes up must come down.

That's an unheard of extreme level of play over 3 games, Murray could very well shoot under 20% on 3's in game 7.

Good Luck claw I also like the Jazz in game 7 

BOL AS I LOOK FORWARD TO YOUR NFL THREADS AS WELL 

Two words: Gary Harris. Check out the defensive numbers for the Nuggets with him on the floor last night. It was night and day. And you are forgetting Jokic. He hasn’t had a monster game yet. He is due. 

Good to see you back Claw! Good luck!!

DAY---1-1 ATS, LOST 2.2 UNITS

Son of a gun, Bucks looked dreadful, they played about as bad they they possibly could with all the TO'S , , can't imagine they'd be this dreadfull again.

OKC did what I thought they would which was win SU TO push a game 7. I'd give OKC a decent shot to win game 7. I think between Jazz and OKC, one if not both wins game 7.

Rockets are not the same team been in the playoffs past few years, this years team is much weaker then those past teams.  And the Nuggets are one of the weakest 3 seeds since 1980 , these type weak higher seeds lose in the first round quite a bit to lower seeds.

OKC is .76 better the Rockets in Power Rating I , Rockets better by .2 in PR II, so pretty close matchup where either team could be expected to win the series.

Jazz are better in both by 1.95 and by .36 over NUGGETS, again somewhat close . 

MY LINES.............................

Jazz -1.95 OVER NUGGETS

Raptors -.75 over Celtics

We'd have a play on the Jazz getting +1.5 based on my lines , but no play in the other game.

Raptors/Celtics rate out almost dead even, with Raptors better by .75 in PR I but Celtics better by .53 in PR II.

Normally in such an even series backing the losing game 1 team is the right play in game 2. As this could be a classic all-time great series going back and forth down to the wire series that either team could win. But here with Raptors off so many big wins VS Nets, that it is somewhat common for teams to not cover 2 games in a row, so I'd pass on that game at this time.

Jazz +1.5 over Nuggets --- 2.2 units

Jazz/Nuggets 

Jazz/Nuggets UNDER 218.5 --- 2.2 UNITS

WITH MURRAY PLAYING AT AN INSANE HIGH LEVEL THAT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE I'd look for him to regress here as well as Mitchel, those 3 overs in a row were because of the stellar play by these 2 players , Particularly Murray, I don't see that continuing tonight.

I think game 7 normally go under as well, someone posted that some years ago as the 2 teams come out tight. Maybe someone could correct me if I'm wrong about that but I don't think so. Remember, I'm not taking the under because of game 7's going under, that is just the icing on the cake. I'd be on the under either way.

Gary Harris had a player effiency rating of ( -1.4) ,he had winshares of ( -.159) and his plus/minus was (-12.2) easily the worst of any Nuggets player

Harris was outplayed and contributed more to losing the game then winning the game 

47 pts 1st quarter, on Pace for under 200.

86 pt 1st half,  on Pace to go under 180, looks like an easy under at this point.

Murray with just 10 pts with no 3 pointers

125 pts heading into the 4th quarter, we got 93 points to work with.

And Jazz pull within 5. Come on Jazz.........

Murray 5 of 14, 1of 4 on 3's

Denver bout to choke on a bone 

games --- 0-1 ATS, lost 2.2 units

totals --- 1-0 ATS, won 2 units

season to date--- games --- 1-2 ATS, LOST 4.5 Units

                            totals, 1-0, won 2 units

We cruised to the easy under with the Jazz right there to give us a 2-0 night but hey, you can't win every close game comes down to the last shot.

Murray did exactly what we thought he would.................7 of 21 (33.3%).....1 of 6 on 3's (16.7%) much like we said he might be under 20%.....his eFG % was 35.7 %, dropping off a cliff after shooting almost 90% the game before. His 3 pt % dropped from 75% last game to 16.7%

Granted he may have been hurt a bit but he did not look good before being hurt either. Missed a great oppurtunity to play a player prop on him just never thought of it because I never play player props but this was an unusual sitution and I just missed the boat on it.

Doesn't surprise me Celtics won again as I pointed out not a good spot to back Raps. Game 3 will be a much better spot, Raps could very well come back And tie series 2-2.

MY LINES................................

Bucks -7 over Heat

OKC -.76 over Rockets

Very good spot for Bucks tonight, would expect the Bucks to bring incredible focus tonight.

Bucks -5 over Rockets --- 2.2 units

OKC +5.5 over Rockets --- 1.1 units

Care to elaborate on it being a very good spot for the bucks? 

1-1 ATS, lost 1.2 units

season to date ---  GAMES 2-3 ATS - LOST 5.7 UNITS 

                            TOTALS --- 1-0 ats , won 2 units

It's hard to take the Bucks when Coach Bud plays Giannis 36 mins and plays Middleton 33 mins.. He still coaches like its the regular season 

MY LINES.....................................

Raps -2.76 over Celtics

Clippers -4.15 over Nuggets

Raps revcieve 2 additional desperation bonus pts for being down 0-2, we have a play with my lines and this is a far better spot for Raps here in this game. Raps were a much better team at shooting efficiency margin  then the Celtics in regular season, these type teams generally respond with very strong shooting efficiency. Raps were in a bad spot games 1 and 2 having come off to many big blowout wins, "what goes up must come down", I see the Raps rolling tonight.

Clippers actually might be better then my PR's say, as Kawhi and George did not play close to all the games, we could give them 2 to 3 pts possibly. Not the best of spots for Clippers here, coming off 2ATS wins plus one monster 43 pt blowout win but not the best of spots for Nuggets coming off a hard fought game 7. 

Would of looked to fade Clippers tonight but not with Nuggets off a tough game 7. Let's wait out this 1st game, depending what happens we could have a very nice play coming game 2.