NBA Bubble Playoffs.........................2020 Style

Raptors -1 over Celtics --- 3.3 units

great with all your science and data..but where is the coaching analytics..cause "Coach" Bud if you want to call him that is single handily blowing this series and 2 games from getting fired...not putting Giannis on Butler in game 1, inflexible offense, his team now playing scared..I love all you data guys, just kinda falls out when you see things like this and Brady having some of the worst statistics in the 2001 Combine and how did that play out?

Push 

Wow, what a great game, both teams refused to lose, somehow the Raptors pulled it out. I still think Raps have a great shot to win game 4.

Clippers dominate the Nuggets, with Nuggets off a hard fought 7 game series then playing a strong title contender is not the best of spots. This big blowout win sets up game 2 beautifully for us.  Let's see if the public bites. 

That was crazy game indeed....

Game 4 line is same game 1,2,3 

Raptors favorite....but if lowly play that well and Pascal play well they might have chance

Not sure if I can be on them bet them again

MY LINES....................................

Bucks -9 over Heat

Lakers -3.98 over Rockets

The Bucks look like the have the same issue they had last year with Raptors, once the defense locks-down on them they don't have the players who can create off the dribble other then Bledsoe but he is shaky shooting around the basket, seems to miss quite a few shots he should be making. The Feaks game is still to limited. 

Normally when a team dominates weak teams in regular season that is a very good indicator of playoff success, the Bucks though appear at least to this point to be a rare exception.

With all that said, we'll "stay the course with the info", many times over the years just when it looked like the info could not be more wrong, bang it bounces right back. We'll see if it will tonight.

Lakers are only a 3.98 favorite over Rockets, but we have to keep in mind, an exception for sure is LBJ, who seems to not play as hard in regular season then turn it up in playoffs.

My line was almost the same as books line in 1st round series with Blazers, book opened game 1 with same line as mine but the line went up half a point to 1.5 points in next games after LA won big. But here my line is way off from the books open of -7. It's a good spot for Rockets being off 2 ATS loses, but not good being off a hard fought 7 game series then playing a top title contender.

LA off 1 ATS loss but also off a game 1 loss in previous series, these top title contender type teams don't lose back-to-back game 1 's very often. Depending what happens game 1 we could have a play game 2, let's wait it out rather then quess who's in the worst or best spot.

I think Raps players will play the same or  better but some of the Celtics players playing over their heads and could very well regress.

Bucks -5 over Heat --- 2.2 units

games - lost 2.2 units

another completely dreadful display of basketball by the Bucks, just pathetic...............................

The Freak was attacking the basket and helped build a 12-14 pt lead, then he gets taken out and sits untill the lead is gone. The first thing he does coming back, when the team really needed a basket to keep their season alive was shoot a 3 well out past the 3 pt line when he is a poor 3 pt shooter, unreal.

Maybe he was hurt but he seemed to be moving around and attacking the basket pretty well prior to the 4th, you got to dig deep, overcome any pain and attack. the last half a quarter all the Bucks did was shoot 3's, what looked like desperation 3's instead of attacking the basket.

Like I mention , the Bucks don't have players can create off the dribble and attack the basket other then Bledsoe who did at times but around the rim he is not that great, misses alot of what appear makable shots just adjust a bit.

I don't know if the bubble, taking time off between the restart, as they did not appear to be the same team in the bubble as in regular season,  or that this team is not the right mix to win the title. The Freak as great as he is , is to limited with what he does.

MY LINES.......................................

Raptors -.75 over Celtics

Clippers -4.15 over Nuggets

Raptors open game 1.... -2.5 favorite, but now a big line adjustment up to 1-1.5, that's 3.5 to 4 additional pts on the Raptors, we almost always grab these extra pts and run with them. Over-reaction by the public here .

This is also a very strong spot for Raptors who were off a big blowout wins in round 1 and due a regression, coming off regression which the Raps are losing both games 1 & 2 and failing to cover game 3, after 3 games of not covering is a strong spot, we'll up our play here with 2 very good indicators on our side.

Clippers in a pretty poor spot. Coming off 3 ATS wins and a monster 43 pt blowout win with a 23 pt blowout win, Clippers due a regression here, it mostly comes this next game but sometimes can come 2 games after, we'll play it here and up our play if we lose. So basically we are playing a 2 game set with hopes to win 1 game and turn a profit.

Some of the largest ( as far as the line)  SU upset wins year after year come in this spot.

Raptors +1.5 over Celtics --- 3.3 units

Nugeets +9 over Clippers --- 2.2 units

Nugets ML +360 --- 1 UNIT

Nuggets/Clippers UNDER 222.5 --- 1 UNIT

Nuggets +5 1st half --- 1.1 units

Nuggets ML +230 1ST HALF --- .5 UNITS to win 1.15 units

Nuggets/Clippers UNDER 113.5 1st half --- .55 units  

You keep acting surprised about the Bucks, you keep betting on them, you keep losing.. your numbers usually come back? When, in the regular season when Milwaukee blows out the Knicks? Bro, I said before there’s a HUGE coaching difference here #1, as Bud refuses to change his approaches and by the way the numbers do show they don’t defend 3’s well

#2- measure HEART.. you can’t but Butler vs all the Bucks in that is like 1000-1, and his leadership in that falls to his teammates. He demands effort

The one thing the NFL combine didn’t measure in 2001 with Brady was heart.. 

Big day ............6-1 with 2 ML wins

Nice work claw..m

games --- 2-0 ATS - won 5 units

ML --- 1-0, won 3.6 units

totals --- 1-0 , won 1 unit

1st halves........... 1-0 ATS, WON 1 UNIT

                     ML --- 1-0, WON 1.15 UNITS

                    Total --- 0-1, lost .55 units

total ..................6-1, won 11.2 units

Nuggets came out super fired up and aggressive while the Clippers in regression mode came out flat as a pancake.  There are times when this can happen 2 games in a row, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Clippers regression continues into game 2. Nuggets should cover at least one of next 2 games, then, if that happens it'd be ......aaallll Clippers from there on.

We should get some great spots down the road in this series. 

Raptors delivered , were in control for most of the game. Just as we suspected when Raps were down 0-2 that they'd come back and tie the series, these 2 teams are just to evenly matched and some Celtics players were flat-out just shooting the ball over their heads which wasn't likely to continue.

Problem with Raps is they are a weak rebounding team and those type teams normally don't make the finals. Celtics are borderline championship calibre team with the common denominators of past champs.  Celtics are kind of in the gray area, not bad enough to eliminate but not good enough to include.

Raptors are far better in the most important key stat of shooting efficiency margin , better by 1% which normally leads to a series win but weak in rebounding, which is not a good thing the deeper you get in playoffs and start playing the better teams.

I'd pass on game 5. I'd think the series is going 7 so maybe waitout game 5 and back the loser game 6.

SEASON TO DATE .............. full game ---7-4, won 3.7 units

games --- 4-4 ATS, lost 2.9 units

ML'S --- 1-0, won 3.6 unit

 totals --- 2-0, won 3 units

SEASON TO DATE ..................1ST half --- 2-1, won 1.6 units

games --- 1-0 ATS, won 1 unit

ML's --- 1-0, won 1.15 units

totals --- 0-1, lost .55 units

We're 9-5 (64.3%)

Nuggets ML  nice hit.

MY LINES....................................

Bucks -7 over Heat

Lakers -3.98 over Rockets

The Freak possibly out, line now at Bucks +2, is the Freak worth 9 pts ? ...........................NOT !!! Maybe 4 or 5, even at 6 pts still makes Bucks -1. This line is a large line adjustment based on the first 3 games and possibly the fact Heat are in a closeout game, always go against these lagre line adjustments.

Closeout games we don't use my lines, instead we back the team going for a closeout "IF" that team is clearly the better team, has the common denominators of past champs. The Heat are a solid playoff team, nothing more, then in this case we'd call for the series to continue on with the team needing the win to stay alive .  If the book is adjusting for Heat in a closeout game they are making a mistake, and if they are not then we have the large line adjustment...............Play today is on the Bucks . Bucks win the next 2 games.

Teams like the Lakers don't fall behind 0-2 very often. With the line at LA -5.5, seems a bit high based on my line. Thus far in 2cd round my line has been closer to the final score in 5 games with the book being closer in 5 games. 3 of the 5 books wins came in Bucks/Heat series, outside that series my line is 5-2 VS books.

Will pass on Lakers/Rockets game today. 

Bucks +2 over Heat --- 2.2 units

We stay the course.........................

1-0 ATS, WON 2 UNITS

Hey what do you know, Bucks finally hit some shots late to get the SU win and cover.

MY LINES..........................................

Raptors -.75 over Celtics

Clippers -4.15 over Nuggets

With the series tied we take the clearly better team to win the next game. Raps and C's are evenly matched so we  pass on that game. 

Clippers clearly  the better team with common denominators of past champs, normally this would be a great spot to play Clippers, but here Clips could very well still  be in regression mode so let's have some patience, wait it out for the next game.

No point in trying to force a play just to get some action today.

Nice win...had heat +2.5 

Always enjoy reading your thoughts

Celtics looked pretty impressive last night. At this point I'd think Celtics are coming out of the East. They'll beat the Heat. Maybe if the Bucks can some how come back and win the series with Freak healthy then I'd go for Bucks.

If any team could come back down 0-3 it might be this Bucks team, but without the Freak, can't see them winning 3 more games. Even with the Freak would be difficult.

Clippers looked to once again be in regression mode, Nuggets hit the ML once again in 1st half and covered both 1st half and game. Things will start to shift towards the Clippers in the games ahead as they come out of regression.

MY LINES...................................

Bucks -7 over Heat

LA -3.98 over Rockets

Bucks again possibly without the Freak, even if he plays may not finish the game and certainly won't be 100%. Line now at Bucks +3.5, wow, Freak is not worth 10.5 pts.

Closeout games we don't use my lines but rather back the closeout  team "IF"  clearly the better team, since the Heat are not the better team we'd play the team to stay alive.

Books like to adjust line favoring teams in a closeout spot because they do win at a good rate but not when the other team is the better team.

Play again is on the Bucks.

LA tied 1-1, we don't use my lines tied 1-1, we back the team that will win the series if our info shows high probability they will win the series. The play is on the Lakers. Last night Clippers were in the same spot as Lakers but were also in regression mode while the Lakers are not.

My Lines have been closer to the final score then the books line in 7 games while the book as been closer in 7 games. If Lakers cover the book will be closer, if the Bucks win SU my line will be closer. So we'd go 1-1 once again.

Bucks +3.5 over Heat --- 1.1 units

Lakers -5 over Rockets --- 1.1 units

we lower our play here tonight .