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LAKERS @ BLAZERS: Back from the dead to bring you an HISTORIC ANGLE that may never be seen again!

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Posts: 201

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 8:34 PM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

I bet it too and won big.

Point is you thought Nunes should be -150 (60%) or whatever so +135 or +105 is value. But if Nunes is "true" -150 - then even if you get at -130 - they are paying juice b/c line is bad.

My point is the - or + does not determine who is paying juice. if line is right, we are. if not, they are. even if NY Giants +3 -110 - if line is wrong they paying juice.

That's correct. But I was always dealing with a +ML situation where I believe Nunes should have been favored and therefore, the books were paying us a 35% premium over a 1 to 1 win.

outoforder

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2016

Posts: 1521

Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 8:35 PM ET #52

kvs

You are right about the juice as you mean it, but you should understand that most here mean another thing when referring to "juice"

In everything else you wrote, you made a lot of false statements yourself like

- "obviously it was, she won" (would +170 be good if he drew a club in your example???)

- "from a 'finance' perspective u get worse price"

- "market price is efficient"

etc

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 10:03 PM ET #53

Ok Gents, I just grabbed it at +10 on 5Dimes right now. THRILLED with that much insurance over a game the lakers and teams in such a demoralizing spot have proven time and time again they want to WIN outright. Line is eerily similar to the Lakers Wizards line of Lakers +10 where they won outright 108-104. Can't believe the books did not adjust for the fact the Lakers are coming off the worst loss in their history.

From a +6.5 pt line at Portland last time out to a 10 pt line? D'Angelo is not worth 3.5 points folks. No way. And even if he was, there is NO ADJUSTMENT for the bounce a kid spot here. In fact it's overadjusted in favor of LA!

scalabrine

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Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 10:05 PM ET #54

Lakers +10 over Blazers

Is the official play for the record, not like that matters. What matters is the money to be made by everyone on this play.

KingScorpio

Hall of Fame

Joined: Nov, 2005

Posts: 24504

Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 10:33 PM ET #55

16 win team getting 10 points against a 19 win team seems to be a strong line for Portland.GL

There is no 100% cappers in the world

Wardellthree

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 7

Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 10:56 PM ET #56

Welcome back scal! I might go with LA as well. Just a question tho, havent the lakers played hisrorically bad in the blazer's homecourt? Especially in the kobe era, athough we all know its the post kobe-era already, but wouldnt it carry over?

ILLWILL2WIN1

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 5991

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 12:09 AM ET #57

Im noticing the Ml a little on the light side for this Line usually a plus 10 carrys about a plus 600 or plus 700 but this line is plus 492 which is interesting imo. But it could be in large part do to the lakers have a larger following then a team like the nets or pelicans none the less gl will be tailing

scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 12:17 AM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

16 win team getting 10 points against a 19 win team seems to be a strong line for Portland.GL

You mean a strong line for LA??? (in that the record disparity is not large enough to justify the enormity of this spread).

scalabrine

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Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 12:19 AM ET #59

Quote Originally Posted by Wardellthree:

Welcome back scal! I might go with LA as well. Just a question tho, havent the lakers played hisrorically bad in the blazer's homecourt? Especially in the kobe era, athough we all know its the post kobe-era already, but wouldnt it carry over?

How far do you want to go back?

Do we go back to Terry Porter Clyde Drexler Kevin Duckworth Jerome Kersey and Buck Williams vs. LA?

Because I can take you back...

scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 12:22 AM ET #60

Quote Originally Posted by ILLWILL2WIN1:

Im noticing the Ml a little on the light side for this Line usually a plus 10 carrys about a plus 600 or plus 700 but this line is plus 492 which is interesting imo. But it could be in large part do to the lakers have a larger following then a team like the nets or pelicans none the less gl will be tailing

I am salivating over this 10. That's all I'm seeing. 10 points in all it's glory. Wow. I mean, it's about as much as I could ask for.

I thought the guys were joking when they said 11 @# betonline but it wasn't a joke. That line was real. This is the absolute maximum spread I could ever ask for in this spot. It's on 2 days rest too. I mean, on a back to back with travel (which those other spots I noted in the OP were) I'd be slightly worried but I'd definitely still play it. But with 2 days off and a similar spread to a B2B in the OP? I'll take it!

JordanKing23

Rookie

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Posts: 663

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 12:40 AM ET #61

Lakers +10

Love the angle Scal lets get back on track

FD30

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Joined: Apr, 2016

Posts: 3946

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 12:52 AM ET #62

BOL Scal

KingScorpio

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Posts: 24504

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 12:54 AM ET #63

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

You mean a strong line for LA??? (in that the record disparity is not large enough to justify the enormity of this spread).

No, for a 3 win gap line should be -2 to -5 look at the other DD spreads they have bigger win gaps.

I don't understand the fascination of hoping a careless pathetic team will care the next game.This team is 6-22 since Dec 1st and have been beaten by DD's countless times.It seems better to make money and kick the Lakers name while they're down instead of hoping they redeem the franchise.

Just my 2 cents

There is no 100% cappers in the world

icegun98

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Joined: Jul, 2006

Posts: 3251

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 1:03 AM ET #64

Portland us also playing 1stvgame at home after a long road trip n have warrior 2 days later. all adds up to a very good spot for lakers. key in this game is the three ball n sharing the rock, if they get back to this I can do itvall on my own, itll be a massacre

scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 1:09 AM ET #65

Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

No, for a 3 win gap line should be -2 to -5 look at the other DD spreads they have bigger win gaps.

Just my 2 cents

I think we are saying the same thing. A "strong" line for the Lakers would be bigger than normal line which you just confirmed (it should be -2 to -5 not -10) that is, it is strong for the Laker backer. But that is semantics so who really cares.

Well it's called an "angle" and I've made the overwhelming majority of my bankroll off "careless pathetic" teams.

If you do not think the Lakers will care about the next game after desecrating the most storied franchise in NBA history with the biggest loss in franchise history then you and I disagree on the impact of human psychology and how players will respond to a massive failing the previous game.

I have dozens of examples of what was presented in the OP that do not involve the Lakers (and they don't have to involve the Lakers to prove the point that these players will respond after a loss like this, now with a heaping spoonful of insurance to boot).

Gocash33

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2016

Posts: 81

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 1:36 AM ET #66

So does this theory work for Pitt in College basketball after getting blown out by Louisville tonight. When they play Clemson on Saturday?? :)

KK1

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Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 1320

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 2:15 AM ET #67

Great analysis Scal, I remember these situations last year and it paid off handsomely.

Add in the fact that Lakers play pretty well on national televise games. Not sure on the primetime record for the lakers, but pretty sure its like 60%+ at least.

Thanks for your time Scal.

KK1

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Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 1320

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 2:21 AM ET #68

After looking back at all the NBATV, ESPN, and TNT games. Lakers are 8-5 ATS. About 61% win rate.

xxxPoBoixxx

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 168

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 3:01 AM ET #69

Gonna tail you on this one, makes absolute sense. Thanks for sharing.

Wardellthree

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 7

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 5:15 AM ET #70

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

How far do you want to go back?Do we go back to Terry Porter Clyde Drexler Kevin Duckworth Jerome Kersey and Buck Williams vs. LA? Because I can take you back...

Well we dont have to go back to the drexler days. Just the previous 5 yrs I guess will do.

Wardellthree

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 7

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 5:25 AM ET #71

Well we dont have to go back to the drexler days. 5 years will do.

coffeebeans

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 12

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 6:06 AM ET #72

Like the pick, Scal. Would you say this pick is as good as the Thunder POY?

Eprince

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2016

Posts: 4070

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 8:58 AM ET #73

If you go checking out other threads today you'll see that a HUGE majority of the people have as 'their' pick;

Lakers +10.

Thx for the insight and pick Scal, GL to ALL.

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 9:46 AM ET #74

Quote Originally Posted by Gocash33:

So does this theory work for Pitt in College basketball after getting blown out by Louisville tonight. When they play Clemson on Saturday?? :)

Absolutely NOT.

You can't be playing a team that is far superior to yours the next game that can drill you regardless (e.g., Spurs Warriors Cavs) OR a team that is desperate in its own right. Clemson is that desperate team having just lost a self-proclaimed must-win to Virginia Tech at home. Clemson will come in fighting for a more than necessary conference win just as hard as Pitt on a bounce back (although this was a historic loss in terms of ACC road team margin of victory). No advantage there. Don't apply this theory to that game.

Coffee - I like it more. 10 is the maximum possible spread is have even dreamed of requesting.

Ok police prince

Wardell - they could have lost every game to the blazers in the past five years by 20+ and is still make this play.

swanbomb

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 1855

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 9:54 AM ET #75

Just locked it at in +10 as well. GOOD LUCK!

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