LAKERS @ BLAZERS: Back from the dead to bring you an HISTORIC ANGLE that may never be seen again!

2016 WP: 62% 2015 WP: 70%

2017 Record: 1-4  (includes Bills TT)

Whatever record the #alternativefact Trump supporting trolls come with (and it will be worse, it's always worse and framed in the worst way possible...i.e., now the TOTAL record is important but when you hit 70% it's the segregated record) it is false. The Purdue team total was included last year with the 4-1 ATS record I provided to the forum with Purdue sides. I've proven this to the trolls many times but it is to no avail and I'm tired of continuing. They will be here to skew the record above, guaranteed. If you care about the 1-4, then stop reading now and go complain in another thread: this play stands alone on its own merits.

Now onto this game.

The pick on 1/25/17 (one day early so you can jump on the line):

LAKERS+(opening line) over BLAZERS

This is an angle that has remarkably come up THREE TIMES in the past three years, but now we may never see it again. All three times it cashed. All three times the same theme as this game, with far worse teams, was evident.

Why might we never see it again? Because there is an upper bound to the amount of points you can lose by.

The Lakers lost by 49 points to the Mavericks last game, their worst loss ever. And remember, this is one of the worst Mavericks teams in recent memory as well.

I have said this time and time again here and it should be part of your capping core: Terrible losses, embarrassing losses, historic losses should make you circle the very next game on your calendar as a play on the team that lost.

St. John's over Tulane after the Delaware State loss is a perfect example of this.

Why? In the NBA, NOTHING is certain. You DO NOT KNOW when teams will come to play. But they WILL come to play when their collective ego is at stake.

Look at the Warriors last night, losing straight up to a Miami team that was +552 on the ML.

Moreover, EVERY dog cashed last night except for the Nets (who got crushed) over the Spurs (who, of all the dogs, you'd think could lose straight up or at least ATS since they rested several starters including Kawai):

New Orleans +431 over Cavs

Clippers +273 over Atlanta

Kings +250 over Detroit

Wizards +227 over Charlotte

Knicks +195 over Indiana

OKC +175 over Utah

Milwaukee +171 over Houston

I just put this into the parlay calculator and a $100 ticket on all these teams parlayed together won:

$3,239,270

Think of how many ML parlays on the favorites last night's results destroyed.

The point? When can you count on these teams coming to play?

You resort to human psychology and the answer is clear: When their EGO has been harmed.

And I can assure you the Lakers collective ego is in the gutter right now. And there is only one way out: Up.

All we need is EFFORT because we will be getting points on the road in Portland. All we need is for this team to be competitive. Off a historic backbreaking loss, maybe never to be seen again, I am selling you the fact we will get that.

A bruised ego like this does not come along often. It has several times in the past three years with the worst Laker teams in their history. But a 49 point loss is not a 50 point loss. That indignity of '50' may very well make this the largest loss ever to be seen in Lakers history.

Teams fight to get under that 50. Just don't lose by FIFTY (after we loafed through the entire game) and it'll be ok. We as cappers HAVE to capitalize on this angle because we won't get it back.

And remember this: Unlike the past several years, THIS TEAM IS NOT TANKING.

The Lakers draft pick is protected in the top three but it is clear this team is done losing. Scott was sent away and Walton was brought in precisely because of this. 

While the Lakers are tip-toeing around falling into the top 3, there is no guarantee they wouldn't be bumped to the fourth spot and lose their pick to the Sixers. This is a team screaming "The rebuild is over" after Kobe has left the building (and he, and his ball hogging ways a major key to their losing the past several seasons). Now he is gone. Now this team is responding. Now it is time to win. A team that is guaranteed not to tank is a team, at a minimum, you can trust in this spot.

But amazingly, because of the bruised NBA egos, you can trust even TANKING teams! Specifically the Lakers! Don't believe me?

I have the evidence:

Last season it was clear the Lakers were tanking to hang onto their draft pick. No one can argue this. If you argue this, you will lose the argument.

BUT even with that, I have three very recent examples to buffer the Lakers response to these demolishings, like the game we are playing here:

1. The Lakers lost by 48, 123-74 to the Jazz last year on 3/28/2016 as 13.5 pt dogs on the road.

What happened the VERY NEXT GAME?:

They won outright as 10.5 pt dogs over a playoff bound Heat team in LA 102-100 in OT.

2. The Lakers also lost by 48 to the Clippers, 142-94 on 3/6/2014 as 11 pt dogs at home.

What happened the VERY NEXT GAME?:

They went into Denver, into the altitude on a back to back and covered 126-134 as 10 pt dogs.

Those are just the most recent historic bashings and the Lakers, TANKING Laker teams (responding because of a bruised ego), covered both games (with one game winning outright).

But there is another game, among the tanking Laker teams, that is very relevant:

3. The third game of interest came AFTER the game on December 1, 2015 (yet another tanking Laker team):

On that night, perhaps the most embarrassing line in the history of pro sports had been set by the books: The Lakers came in as one point DOGS to a Sixer team that lost TWENTY EIGHT games in a row up until that point.

The Lakers lost outright to the god forsaken Sixers 103-91.

WHAT happened the very next game?

The Lakers won in Washington 108-104 on a BACK TO BACK as ten point dogs.

Those were all tanking Lakers teams. All three games where the Lakers could have continued to tank they would not: because their personal pride as megalomaniac hundred-millionaires demanded they save some sort of face.

And that is the sale here. They will save face against what I believe is a decidedly underwhelming Blazers team.

This Blazer team is a team with a great backcourt and the likes of Noah Vonleh, Mason Plumlee and Evan Turner to compliment them. This team can be beat. And they absolutely can be beat in this spot. And this is a team the Lakers just lost to (so they just saw them) on 1/10/2017.

And if you don't believe me, take it from the players and coach: the consistent them in all these videos is play to compete (not lay down like a team can do on any given night).

Juilus Randle:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDbcC4E_aiY&feature=youtu.be

"Compete" "We let ourselves down. We let everyone down. We let the fans down." "It's our job to go out there and compete as pros" (lol, one game too late Julius).

Luke Walton:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ar_kNBwk89E

"Focus. We came in guys competed in practive, guys put in their work. "Guys showed that they are not OK with it."

All lip service but at a minimum, you can see these guys are at their lowest low and there is only one way out: UP. And they want to COME TO PLAY the next game, which is never a guarantee in the NBA. And recent history dictates they win or cover in these spots.

Again, this is 49 point loss and nothing may ever match it unless a team really wants to drill them just to stick 50 in their face. And if they do? I'll be here to post the next game after that night too so even if it happens there is more money coming.

This really should be a Lakers ML play but I'll take all the points the books will give and go large.

Yes there will be no Russell but this game transcends Russell in a winnable game where we get points and have all the motivation to redeem ourselves.

I want to emphasize this as well: The three game sample above IS NOT exclusive to this angle. It is only there to pepper you with confidence. I did not have this sample with St. John's and still used the same angle. This psychological angle is exclusive to us as humans particularly among athletes with very large senses of self.

And in addition if this loss happens with a team like the Nets, a team with very little proud and championship winning history to go by, it could still be used. The fact that the Lakers are among if not the most historic NBA franchise makes this angle even a bit better.

Like the Browns as the losing progressed, I expect this line to drop so when it opens I am jumping on the opening line at 5Dimes. I suggest you do the same on your site when it opens! 

Yes!

Ingram -45

Clarkson -36

Lou Williams -34

Nick Young -23

A murderer's row of +/-'s. Nice way to put the spotlight effect on these players to have them come out the next game.

The line next game? The Lakers were 2.5 pt dogs at home last game and were 6.5 pt dogs @ Portland the game before that

But I definitely think the books see what is at stake for the Lakers here to bounce back and will shade the line lower than -6.5 even without D'Angelo, perhaps as low as -5. I'll be happy to be way off and take whatever they open at.

Bmiller - Don't jump off the Laker train yet!

Prince, always a pleasure.

7.5 would be OUTSTANDING given 7 is a key number in the NBA.. I'll take every bit of that. Provides a massive amount of insurance in a game the Lakers should win.

Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:

I'm buying, but just wanted to mention that the sixers team a few years ago lost back to back games at clippers and golden state by 40 points plus .  Thanks for posting 

This is a good point I'd like to address and I'm familiar with these games.

This happened on 2/9/14. The Sixers played the Clippers in LA on that night and lost 123-80.

They had to go to Golden State the next night and lost 123-80.

BUT the following should be noted about that Golden State spot:

1) That was the 3rd game in 4 nights and worse, the 4th in 6th, 7 games 26 game losing streak. Awful team that is road weary.

2) @Golden State on a B2B is NOT a winnable game. If the game is not winnable, I'm not too interested in the spread. Play games that are winnable and THEN take the points.

If the Lakers were playing GS or Cleveland on a B2B here getting +14 on the road, I wouldn't be playing it. They very well could get blown out. This is a very winnable game with rest on the road getting points.

3) Lastly, that was the first season of "The Process" as Embiid would call it, and the Sixers were just trying to hold their head above water.

The angle works but it has to be analyzed in-depth. This Laker team is nowhere near that Sixers team and this Blazer team is nowhere near that Warriors team (who were really coming into their 'Splah Brothers' self against a team that couldn't play D against the 3 or any other position).

Well that even buffers my point even more. That that Laker team didn't want another defeat of ignominy and even would save face to get a deficit under 10 (and a Pau dunk would have still covered MANY bets since that line was 10.5 in many places but closed at 10, which is only a push anyway. A fight to the final bell as opposed to a laydown where the game gets out of hand.

That is a very GOOD sign.