Posted:
#1
30-31
2017 Playoffs: 11-6
The Pick:
Celtics +16 over Cavs
Reasons
1. A Record-Breaking Line
When lines break records, you have to give them a long look.
We don't even need to research it. When in the world has a #1 seed gotten a line like this, injuries or otherwise? This has never happened.
And not only is it a record-breaking line, but I guarantee this line absolutely SMASHES the previous record that a #1 seed received.
So it's not only a record, it's a record shooting to the moon.
And when you take that line, you get all that history. NEVER in history has a #1 seed gotten a line like this. And we likely will never see it again. Because Lebron is THAT special a player and they just won by a mind-boggling 46.
On this basis ALONE. it has to be looked into a a play.
2. +16
Now outside of the fact the line breaks records, what is the spread itself?
+16.
WOW. That's the only word that comes to mind.
Folks, you know I have talked about how valuable spreads are when they get to numbers like this. Spreads around zero? 1,2,3? Not valuable on either end.
Spreads > 10/11/12!/13!!!/Even14!!!!/And yes15!!!!!!!!!!!!!.
INCREDIBLY VALUABLE!!!
Why? Because unless there is a personal vendetta (like the Warriors vs. the Clippers where they try to KILL them EVEN in the preseason) teams rest players with the game well in hand and lay off late. We ALL know this.
Look at game 1 where there Cavs won by 13. The Cavs had that game more than well in hand the entire time and then came off the gas late winning by a more than respectable 13.
And 13 isn't 16 folks. And that is why numbers like 16 are so valuable. Because Vegas tacks on these points at the high end against ultra-dominant teams to cover their as*. Look at tonight with the Warriors.
118-100 with 2 minutes left. Warriors lay off and it ends 120-108.
Again, 16 gets you there when things like this happen!
To give you perspective as to how high a spread like this is, the Sixers, in the year they lost 26 in a row (a team that is considered one of if not the worst ever) received a spread of 20.5 from the Spurs on a B2B after playing the high-powered Rockets, the highest spread Vegas gave out that season.
That's only 4.5 points more than this spread with a #1 seed IN THE PLAYOFFS. Thomas in or out, this is a VERY competent well-coached team that shoots a ton of 3's and can backdoor any spread like this! That can get us within 16 folks.
And this is the PLAYOFFS. Points are IMMENSELY MORE valuable than the regular season here. And you get the upper, upper, upper bound her (I had to say it three times because this really is a #1 vs. #8 number with #1 giving it out). Books HATE to give out more than 17 except to the worst of the absolute worst in a bad spot. We get 1 point off that if we take this number. The Celtics can muster SOMETHING to get under this number IMO!
3. A Historic beating
No team was ever down by 41 after 2 quarters in the playoffs.
It's a more than common angle to take a team to bounce back with this type of insurance, even with the injury, even against the Cavs. We don't have to win. Just lose respectably.
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