What do we make of the Dodgers line?

The books are anticipating a heavy handle on a team that's 3-10 last 13.

They're finally back home after a terrible road trip.

Most will expect a "due" factor. Others might be on a martingale death spin with the Dodgers?

Skubal is worthy to be a heavy favorite, but not by this much.

The books don't care that Noah Cameron has spun 3 absolute gems in a row.

KC went 3-3 on a short home stand vs the Twins and Cubs.

But...the total is reflective of there being 2 good starters on the bump, combined with LA's recent shitty hitting, and the Royals aren't exactly hitting the cover off the ball either.

LA is -264, KC is +235, the total 7.5(-122) to the under.

This doesn't correlate to taking the fav in LA at such a high price.

What's the best way to attack these lines?

KC first 5 +.5(+120) is enticing. 

That game is ugly. I don’t want any part of it. The Dodgers are just in shambles

Is there opportunity in the Royals then? 1 unit on them wouldn't kill anyone. A win would more than double your return. 

The Royals have a lot of plate appearances vs Skubal, seeing him in the AL Central. 

Just thinking out loud.

What's Skubal lifetime numbers against KC anyone know?

Lifetime so so  

Recently or semi recently

July 24, 2026: 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
August 31, 2025: 7 IP, 0 ER
May 31, 2025: 7 IP, 0 ER
April 20, 2025: 5 IP, 2 ER 

Essentially if you think the market has decided those are the fair lines, you would need LA -297, KC +250, U7.5 -134, O7.5 +122 to see ~4% edge on what your model or you think are the 'true' lines

KC has only scored 1 run on Skubal in the last 3 meetings it says.

I am hoping for a 4-0, 4-1, 3-1 type game.

Pretty good

19 games, 5-9 record

Allowing 3.86 era, 1.01 whip, .233 BA, .649 OPS

But narrowing it down to KC's current lineup:

125 plate appearances:

26.4% K, 3.2% BB, .212 BA, .272 wOBA

Noah Cameron vs the Dodgers current lineup with 20 plate appearances:

15% K, 15% BB, .176 BA, .387 wOBA

Thank you. You can see how the books still rip us off. I went off of Betonline's prices, which are better than most books.

+190 1st 5 is even more enticing.

It's the super bowl for the Royals. Their season is in the shitter; beating LA would be a bit of redemption.

Interesting stat...Sal Perez vs. Scooby Doo...42 PAs/.286 BA/4 HRs. Royals are pros, andthey have talent too. Tolbert is always a wild card.

It's baseball. You never know. The A's just beat Boston 2 of 3. And Dave Roberts at times has looked very worried.

BOL,

RT2

The most intriguing factor in this game to me is Noah Cameron's recent form.

Last 3 games:

0.39 era, 1.91 fip

1 earned run, 6 hits, 6 walks, 24 k's in 23 innings pitched.

Has something changed with his mechanics/delivery? FIP is saying that he hasn't been tremendously lucky, just a little. 3 double plays within that frame.

How many people follow the Royals? Not many I surmise. 

I could read up a little on his recent games to see what people are saying. 

Under best bet?

@undermysac

 Thank you. You can see how the books still rip us off. I went off of Betonline's prices, which are better than most books.

I would use Pinnacle or Circa.  They are what are considered 'market-making' books and not 'retail' books.

They give you a very efficient number even if you can't get an account with them or do not want an account with them.  They are what you should compare your books, your models, or just your idea of what you think the line should be.

But the other books are not necessarily 'ripping' folks off.  It is their model to be profitable, whether they are just tracking market maker books or adjusting their lines for their handle.

It kind of feels that way, smelling a dead nut.

Lots of time left to decide. 

Not that its a given but mostly NYY and LAD win when line drops

KC is KC...i never chase..but will certainly chase LAD RL tommorrow of it doesnt win tonight

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/noah-cameron-is-calling-his-own-game-and-its-working/id1491784484?i=1000780285843

We are all in a dream right now where the Dodgers are struggling and the Mets are thriving. Do we want to wake up anytime soon?

This is pretty cool. Take a listen. Cameron has been calling his own game past 3, so the improvement is not a coincidence. Pretty strong angle if you ask me.

In these 3 games for Cameron, he's been virtually unhittable vs left handed bats. If the Dodgers "projected" lineup is correct,  we'll see 4 of them. With the most important one at lead off in Ohtani. Freeman is usually in the 3 hole, and Kyle Tucker 6 or 7.

Now against right handed bats, Cameron has been exceptional. Allowing a low 5.6% line drive rate, and a high 58.3% ground ball rate.

He's striking dudes out at 27.9%. BA allowed .074 with a 0.57 whip.

That's the definition of dialed. This is no "get right" spot for the Dodgers. 

I'm gonna have to swing on this one, in one aspect or another. Will go through some more details before firing, if not at all.

At this point, I correlate the dog with the under type of game.

La wins 8-3 final.over Allday skubal gets first w. 6+ks

Stinx to lay the run line on a home club but I'm laying the two runs.  Only way to get the price out of orbit. Dodger bats wake up in a no-doubter

@undermysac

 great read....

but this ain't Sandy Koufax.....

@undermysac

 great read....

but this ain't Sandy Koufax.....

Skubal has 1 tiny thing going against him. He's given up 42% fly ball, and 19.7% line drives to right handed hitters this year.

In his last 3 starts, that flyball % has gone up to 65%.

The wind is blowing out to dead center at 8.1mph, 62% humidity, 79.1 degrees.

Don't get me wrong, he is still a strike out machine, great #'s all around and checks a lot of boxes.

But the weather conditions favor Cameron Noah here.

And quite frankly after looking at everything from recent hitting, batting and pitching splits, situation, I think the Royals have a punchers chance at the upset.

Fwiw...

91% of the bets, and 83% of the $ on LA.

58% of the bets, and 62% of the $ on the over.

According to scores n odds

You don't say

@undermysac

 BTW his name is Noah Cameron