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Runn Differential League Snapshot... 4-27-19...

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Posted: #151

Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Quote Originally Posted by ibacku:

Glad to help out ...it's time I started taking my own advice as well...Here are today's system plays...Philadelphia (+34) vs Milwaukee (+10)Oakland (-9) at Detroit (-67)Cleveland (-3) vs Baltimore (-79)Chicago Cubs (+55) at Cincinnati (+29)St. Louis (+27) at Atlanta (-6)Minnesota (+52) at Seattle (-12)Borderline plays will be...PhillyCubsSt. LouisToday, I am working in the "Simple Rating System" (SRS) from baseball-reference.com.  Basically, any team with a 1.0 or greater advantage in the SRS is weighted with an advantage.  This advantage, if the pitcher rating is close in my opinion, is being used to help weed in/weed out borderline plays...Today, the SRS weeded Oakland out of the borderline list...Best of luck today, gentlemen!... SRS IS WHAT THE WINS? DET HAS -1.7 AND OAK -0.3  Please explain if you have time thanks 
The important thing to know about SRS is that it is a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. Basically, the SRS is saying how much better or worse than average a team is...So, as you point out...Oakland is at (-0.3) and Detroit is at (-1.7)...This makes Oakland a +1.4 advantage on the SRS system...My RDS has Oakland as a solid play, however, I see the pitcher matchup as close...Chris Bassitt vs Spencer TurnbullBut the SRS advantage is so big, I am taking Oakland out of the borderline category...Hope that helps...

thanks for your hard work keep it up...and as always BOLclover

 
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Posted: #152
Looks like it was a good idea to take Oakland off the borderline list...

Up 6-0 in the 3rd...
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Posted: #153
Good luck smack!
 
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Posted: #154
so are you saying the cubs is a good play?
 
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Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by DialedCaper7:

so are you saying the cubs is a good play?

The Chicago Cubs area are a standard system play today...

The borderline games are games you should REMOVE from playing off the system selection list if you want the best results...

If you are playing ONLY the games that give the best results...based on how the system/borderline plays have been producing so far...your plays today would be...

Oakland..........WINNER
Cleveland
Minnesota
S.D.

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Posted: #156
The record for giving up home runs in a year is 253...

Baltimore is on pace to give up over 300 home runs this year....

Let that sink in...

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Posted: #157
The record for giving up home runs in a year is 253...

Baltimore is on pace to give up over 300 home runs this year....

Let that sink in...


++++++++++++


.....omygawd .....



 
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Posted: #158



Pitt road after allow 10+ 10-2. 


 
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Posted: #159
Quote Originally Posted by skoonr3:




Pitt road after allow 10+ 10-2. 



That probably includes some games from last year, eh?...

Last year, the Pirates were kind of decent...had a (-1) run differential for the year...

The Pirates went 82-79 last year...almost the prototypical average team...this team this year is below average in almost every way...

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Posted: #160
Just saw it but yeah good catch....



 
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Posted: #161
The important thing to know about SRS is that it is a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. Basically, the SRS is saying how much better or worse than average a team is.


++++++

Alert     






 
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Posted: #162
Sorry after rereading 3 Xs not that big o deal.....


( So 6/1 thru Allstars.....we both have to have our games on w/these threads....they should crank !! )



 
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Posted: #163
Well, have to go to bed but the San Diego Padres are leading 4-3 in the bottom of the 7th...certainly no guarantee they will close out the game with a win...BUT...if they do...

The system will have gone 4-3....
Overall it would be 84-56 after 19 days...

But..even more importantly...

The borderline plays went 0-3...If you did NOT play these plays, then you would have completed ANOTHER 4-0 sweeeeeeep...that's 2 sweep days in a row with the record at 10-0!!! 

The key to this system is clearly NOT playing the borderline plays that are weeding out the losers...I need to go back and round up the record on this and I will this weekend for sure...it's starting to really add up...

Also...in my opinion, if this system keeps producing like this..it CLEARLY has huge value in parlays as well as straight bets...

Here's hoping the Padres hold on and close this out...

Have a big work day tomorrow...hopefully I can find time to get all the capping done...



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Posted: #164
Well..Minnesota still playing too...but up 10-6....really don't expect them to lose that at all...

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Posted: #165

Congrats Smack....Looking good and thank you for your work....the system is kicking tail..an_clap

 
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Posted: #166
Quote Originally Posted by BlacknGoldBurgh:

Congrats Smack....Looking good and thank you for your work....the system is kicking tail..an_clap


Thank you, Sir......

Quite the monster card today for the system...going to take a LOT of work to weed out the borderlines today...

The plays for day 20 of the RDS...

Chicago Cubs (+53) at Washington (-24)
Philadelphia (+26) vs Colorado (-5)
T.B. Devil Rays (+63) at NYY (+40)
LA Dodgers (+58) at Cincinnati ( +31)
NYM (-16) at Miami (-96)
Cleveland (+4) vs Baltimore (-86)
Oakland (+5) at Detroit (-81)
Houston (+87) at Boston (+27)
Arizona (+25) vs S.F. (-39)
LA Angels (-2) vs K.C. (-34)
S.D. (-15) vs Pittsburgh (-48)
Minnesota (+57) at Seattle (-17)

Whew..glad all these games start late...

Back later with borderlines...

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Posted: #167
Thanks ,Bud , and Good Luck Today     
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #168

Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Quote Originally Posted by BlacknGoldBurgh:

Congrats Smack....Looking good and thank you for your work....the system is kicking tail..
Thank you, Sir......Quite the monster card today for the system...going to take a LOT of work to weed out the borderlines today...The plays for day 20 of the RDS...Chicago Cubs (+53) at Washington (-24)Philadelphia (+26) vs Colorado (-5)T.B. Devil Rays (+63) at NYY (+40)LA Dodgers (+58) at Cincinnati ( +31)NYM (-16) at Miami (-96)Cleveland (+4) vs Baltimore (-86)Oakland (+5) at Detroit (-81)Houston (+87) at Boston (+27)Arizona (+25) vs S.F. (-39)LA Angels (-2) vs K.C. (-34)S.D. (-15) vs Pittsburgh (-48)Minnesota (+57) at Seattle (-17)Whew..glad all these games start late...Back later with borderlines...

BORDERLINE PICKS??

 
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Posted: #169
Hey smack, can you accept my friend request? I have a question for you...looking for a local.
 
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Posted: #170

Quote Originally Posted by jivany1982:

Hey smack, can you accept my friend request? I have a question for you...looking for a local.

this is a great thread smack thanks for doing this but I’d like some help figuring out which games are plays. Can you offer any clarity please ? Continued success 

2025 Circa Grandissomo Champion, Circa Survivor 2024 Top 50
 
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Posted: #171

Quote Originally Posted by dogball:

Quote Originally Posted by jivany1982:

Hey smack, can you accept my friend request? I have a question for you...looking for a local.
this is a great thread smack thanks for doing this but I’d like some help figuring out which games are plays. Can you offer any clarity please ? Continued success
all games are in play but he normally list 3 or 4 teams that are borderline plays its been 8+ hrs since last post!

 
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Posted: #172
Sorry gentlemen...completely swamped with work today, never got to do the borderlines... still not freed up but will do them later tonight when I can......
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Posted: #173
Borderline plays are in...

Philly
T.B. Devil Rays
LA Dodgers
Cleveland
LA Angels
S.D.


Which means, the recommended plays are...

Cubs
NYM
Oakland
Houston
Arizona
Minnesota...

Good luck!

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Posted: #174
Quote Originally Posted by jivany1982:

Hey smack, can you accept my friend request? I have a question for you...looking for a local.

Done!
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Posted: #175
Terribly sorry about today, gentlemen...I knew it was going to be a tough, long day at work and there are only so many hours to get stuff done...capping the borderlines got left out until late in the day...However, it's not all bad news for today...

IF the scores hold in these late games...and they may not...the system will have gone 8-4...certainly a very good record...

BUT...if I had completed the borderlines before the games started...you could have eliminated them from your play list and since they will have gone 3-3...eliminating them from your play list would have given you a record of...

5-1......

Stack this up with the 10-0 record of the last 2 days and you would have had a 3 day record of 15-1 if you did NOT play the borderline plays and only played the games left after the bad games were weeded out...

Of course, I didn't get the borderline plays done in time today...so probably nobody has that delicious 15-1 record...but you could be very close to it...

What is even MORE important is knowing that this system can actually produce these results at all...now...we need to see it produce over time......

So, again...my apologies...this weekend I will be going back to check the record of the system with the borderlines weeded out to get a better look at what I will most certainly be focusing on as we go forward...

Onward and upward!...



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