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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    Runn Differential League Snapshot... 4-27-19...

    «First Previous 8910 ... 192021 Next Last»
    esposito10304
    smacksmiter
    NNYHILLBILLY
    WISEGUY36
    jivany1982
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    «First Previous 8910 ... 192021 Next Last»
     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posts: 321
    Posted: May. 18, 2019 - 1:20 AM ET #176

    This month of May 2019 is the best ever for favorites in 15 years (more than 67 win%). So, things will slow down and the borderline plays will then be more than useful, coupled with clever money management (big juice involved sometimes) 

    Gl to all and thank you smack  for your hard work. Don't be sorry, nobody here is your boss! 
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    This month of May 2019 is the best ever for favorites in 15 years (more than 67 win%). So, things will slow down and the borderline plays will then be more than useful, coupled with clever money management (big juice involved sometimes) 

    Gl to all and thank you smack  for your hard work. Don't be sorry, nobody here is your boss! 
     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 18, 2019 - 2:33 AM ET #177

    Quote Originally Posted by esposito10304:

    This month of May 2019 is the best ever for favorites in 15 years (more than 67 win%). So, things will slow down and the borderline plays will then be more than useful, coupled with clever money management (big juice involved sometimes) 

    Gl to all and thank you smack  for your hard work. Don't be sorry, nobody here is your boss! 

    Appreciate the sentiments, my friend......

    Fascinating information as well on the month of May...I'm wondering if this is more than just a passing trend for this month...the game has changed so much now in such a short time...this may be the new norm or just an anomalous month that might turn into an anomalous year...

    Hopefully the books won't catch on too soon...

    System plays for Saturday the 18th...the 21st day of the RDS system...

    T.B. Devil Rays (+61) at NYY (+41)
    Colorado (-6) at Philadelphia (+27)
    Cleveland (0) vs Baltimore (-82)
    Oakland (+10) at Detroit (-86)
    LA Dodgers (+64) at Cincinnati (+25)
    NYM (-18) at Miami (-94)
    Chicago Cubs (+61) at Washington (-32)
    Houston (+89) at Boston (+25)
    S.D. (-17) vs Pittsburgh (-46)
    LA Angels (-2) vs K.C. (-37)
    Arizona (+32) vs S.F. (-46)
    Minnesota (+63) at Seattle (-23)

    Borderlines ... for tonight...may change tomorrow after further review...

    Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    Philly
    Cleveland
    Oakland
    Cubs
    Arizona

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by esposito10304:

    This month of May 2019 is the best ever for favorites in 15 years (more than 67 win%). So, things will slow down and the borderline plays will then be more than useful, coupled with clever money management (big juice involved sometimes) 

    Gl to all and thank you smack  for your hard work. Don't be sorry, nobody here is your boss! 

    Appreciate the sentiments, my friend......

    Fascinating information as well on the month of May...I'm wondering if this is more than just a passing trend for this month...the game has changed so much now in such a short time...this may be the new norm or just an anomalous month that might turn into an anomalous year...

    Hopefully the books won't catch on too soon...

    System plays for Saturday the 18th...the 21st day of the RDS system...

    T.B. Devil Rays (+61) at NYY (+41)
    Colorado (-6) at Philadelphia (+27)
    Cleveland (0) vs Baltimore (-82)
    Oakland (+10) at Detroit (-86)
    LA Dodgers (+64) at Cincinnati (+25)
    NYM (-18) at Miami (-94)
    Chicago Cubs (+61) at Washington (-32)
    Houston (+89) at Boston (+25)
    S.D. (-17) vs Pittsburgh (-46)
    LA Angels (-2) vs K.C. (-37)
    Arizona (+32) vs S.F. (-46)
    Minnesota (+63) at Seattle (-23)

    Borderlines ... for tonight...may change tomorrow after further review...

    Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    Philly
    Cleveland
    Oakland
    Cubs
    Arizona

     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 18, 2019 - 2:52 AM ET #178

    Quote Originally Posted by VigPro:

    Stop looking backwards, look to potential instead.

    All it tells me when I see +40 or whatever is that they probably had a game with 17 runs lately, that's happening a lot. Even though it's happening a lot in the league right now I'd be a fool to make a bet that counts on it happening again.

    Bet with a "will probably win by 2 with a chance of winning by 15" mindset and not a "are expected to win by 5 every game because stats" mindset. Don't let the odd 15 run game inflate your expectations too much, it's not the norm.


    Your comments clearly show you have not read the entire thread to see the progression of the system as it developed...and I can certainly understand you not wanting to read the entire thread as it is now pretty long...

    But...it initially started as just a run differential comparison that would generate selections based on that single factor alone...then I added additional analyses including pitcher comparisons, defensive standings, last 10 win/loss and most recently, the "Simple Rating System" or SRS on the baseball-reference site that adds a strength of schedule rating to run differential and gets a number that shows how many runs better or worse than an average team that a given team is...

    So it's not just run differential comparison, my friend...it is much more than that now...

    And the results have improved steadily...

    Is it just a factor of the month of May being a huge favorite month?...

    Guess we shall see...



    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by VigPro:

    Stop looking backwards, look to potential instead.

    All it tells me when I see +40 or whatever is that they probably had a game with 17 runs lately, that's happening a lot. Even though it's happening a lot in the league right now I'd be a fool to make a bet that counts on it happening again.

    Bet with a "will probably win by 2 with a chance of winning by 15" mindset and not a "are expected to win by 5 every game because stats" mindset. Don't let the odd 15 run game inflate your expectations too much, it's not the norm.


    Your comments clearly show you have not read the entire thread to see the progression of the system as it developed...and I can certainly understand you not wanting to read the entire thread as it is now pretty long...

    But...it initially started as just a run differential comparison that would generate selections based on that single factor alone...then I added additional analyses including pitcher comparisons, defensive standings, last 10 win/loss and most recently, the "Simple Rating System" or SRS on the baseball-reference site that adds a strength of schedule rating to run differential and gets a number that shows how many runs better or worse than an average team that a given team is...

    So it's not just run differential comparison, my friend...it is much more than that now...

    And the results have improved steadily...

    Is it just a factor of the month of May being a huge favorite month?...

    Guess we shall see...



     
    NNYHILLBILLY
    NNYHILLBILLY
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    Posted: May. 18, 2019 - 9:22 AM ET #179

    Could it explain the system, does the highest differential equal the picks?

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    Could it explain the system, does the highest differential equal the picks?

     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: May. 18, 2019 - 9:35 AM ET #180

    Good Luck Today , Bud 
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Good Luck Today , Bud 
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 18, 2019 - 10:25 AM ET #181

    Quote Originally Posted by NNYHILLBILLY:

    Could it explain the system, does the highest differential equal the picks?


    Basically, you remove the borderline teams from the main system list and those are the plays for the day...

    I will clearly list the plays for the day from now on...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by NNYHILLBILLY:

    Could it explain the system, does the highest differential equal the picks?


    Basically, you remove the borderline teams from the main system list and those are the plays for the day...

    I will clearly list the plays for the day from now on...

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 18, 2019 - 10:42 AM ET #182

    Final plays for today...

    LA Dodgers
    NYM
    Houston
    S.D.
    LA Angels
    Minnesota

    Best of luck today!...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Final plays for today...

    LA Dodgers
    NYM
    Houston
    S.D.
    LA Angels
    Minnesota

    Best of luck today!...

     
    NNYHILLBILLY
    NNYHILLBILLY
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    Posted: May. 18, 2019 - 11:06 AM ET #183

    Thanks for everything my friend, great job and thanks for sharing your hard work ??an_worship

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    Thanks for everything my friend, great job and thanks for sharing your hard work ??an_worship

     
    NNYHILLBILLY
    NNYHILLBILLY
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    Posted: May. 18, 2019 - 11:07 AM ET #184

    Hard work !! Sorry no glasses screws up my typing !an_worship

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    Hard work !! Sorry no glasses screws up my typing !an_worship

     
    jivany1982
    jivany1982
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    Posted: May. 18, 2019 - 11:41 AM ET #185

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Final plays for today...

    LA Dodgers
    NYM
    Houston
    S.D.
    LA Angels
    Minnesota

    Best of luck today!...


    Hey smack...sent you a PM. Pls advise, thx!
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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Final plays for today...

    LA Dodgers
    NYM
    Houston
    S.D.
    LA Angels
    Minnesota

    Best of luck today!...


    Hey smack...sent you a PM. Pls advise, thx!
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 18, 2019 - 11:50 AM ET #186

    Just noted some interesting stats you might want to take into consideration going forward...

    The LA Dodgers won last night on the road at Cincy...

    But overall this year their splits are the most dramatic of any team for home/away run differential...

    Home... +58...  Away ... +6...

    Boston likes home cooking as well going +33/-8...
    St. Louis as well... +27/-12...
    LA Angels ... +23/-22 ...

    Strangely..of the bottom 10 teams in run differential, all but ONE of them are much worse at home than on the road...

    Miami is the only exception to that going -42/-52...but that's not much of a discrepancy...when a team is that bad, it really doesn't matter...

    Today, in those bottom 10 teams of run differential, those playing at home are...

    Seattle
    Miami
    Detroit
    CWSox
    Washington

    Something to keep an eye on...



    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Just noted some interesting stats you might want to take into consideration going forward...

    The LA Dodgers won last night on the road at Cincy...

    But overall this year their splits are the most dramatic of any team for home/away run differential...

    Home... +58...  Away ... +6...

    Boston likes home cooking as well going +33/-8...
    St. Louis as well... +27/-12...
    LA Angels ... +23/-22 ...

    Strangely..of the bottom 10 teams in run differential, all but ONE of them are much worse at home than on the road...

    Miami is the only exception to that going -42/-52...but that's not much of a discrepancy...when a team is that bad, it really doesn't matter...

    Today, in those bottom 10 teams of run differential, those playing at home are...

    Seattle
    Miami
    Detroit
    CWSox
    Washington

    Something to keep an eye on...



     
    tinfoils
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    Posted: May. 18, 2019 - 1:39 PM ET #187

    Good luck smack!
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    Good luck smack!
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 19, 2019 - 2:20 AM ET #188

    The system went 7-5 on the day for one of its definite duds of its existence...

    The borderline plays actually went better going 4-2...again, has almost never happened...System plays minus borderlines went 3-3...

    Overall now the system stands at 98-65 after day 21...still haven't worked up the system minus the borderline record...hope to have it tomorrow..

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    The system went 7-5 on the day for one of its definite duds of its existence...

    The borderline plays actually went better going 4-2...again, has almost never happened...System plays minus borderlines went 3-3...

    Overall now the system stands at 98-65 after day 21...still haven't worked up the system minus the borderline record...hope to have it tomorrow..

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 19, 2019 - 10:42 AM ET #189

    Day 22 for the RDS ...here we goooo!...

    Houston (+93) at Boston (+21)
    T.B. Devil Rays (+62) at NYY (+40)
    Philadelphia (+28) vs Colorado (-7)
    Oakland (+13) at Detroit (-89)
    LA Dodgers (+60) at Cincinnati (+29)
    NYM (-20) at Miami (-92)
    Arizona (+29) vs S.F. (-43)
    LA Angels (+4) vs K.C. (-40)
    Minnesota (+77) at Seattle (-37)
    Chicago Cubs (+58) at Washington (-29)

    Borderline plays......only 3 out of this huge card...

    Cleveland
    LA Angels
    Minnesota

    This means the suggested plays are...

    Houston
    T.B. Devil Rays
    Philly
    Oakland
    LA Dodgers
    NYM
    Arizona
    Chicago Cubs

    Be nice to go 8-0...hey, it COULD happen......

    Good luck today gentlemen!

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Day 22 for the RDS ...here we goooo!...

    Houston (+93) at Boston (+21)
    T.B. Devil Rays (+62) at NYY (+40)
    Philadelphia (+28) vs Colorado (-7)
    Oakland (+13) at Detroit (-89)
    LA Dodgers (+60) at Cincinnati (+29)
    NYM (-20) at Miami (-92)
    Arizona (+29) vs S.F. (-43)
    LA Angels (+4) vs K.C. (-40)
    Minnesota (+77) at Seattle (-37)
    Chicago Cubs (+58) at Washington (-29)

    Borderline plays......only 3 out of this huge card...

    Cleveland
    LA Angels
    Minnesota

    This means the suggested plays are...

    Houston
    T.B. Devil Rays
    Philly
    Oakland
    LA Dodgers
    NYM
    Arizona
    Chicago Cubs

    Be nice to go 8-0...hey, it COULD happen......

    Good luck today gentlemen!

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 19, 2019 - 3:16 PM ET #190

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

    We are fairly aligned, except for the Houston game.  I think one could make a better car for your Houston pick over My Boston pick.

    Good luck. Hoping you hit all but one, is that fair lol.  Get em smack


    Best of luck to you today as well, my friend!...

    Noting a couple of adjustments I will be making to the system...after watching Miami and Baltimore perform much better than expected in their respective series with the NYMs and Cleveland Indians...I went back and looked at a few things...

    One interesting thing that stood out is that both teams in both series had a (-) SRS rating ...In the future, if both teams have a (-) value in the SRS, I'm going to require a (1.5) difference in their ratings to make it a play instead of a (1.0) as I have been using to this point...

    It seems the worse a team is, they must have more of an advantage to be a play...if I had been using the (1.5) in these series, both Cleveland and the NYMs would have been weeded out as plays...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

    We are fairly aligned, except for the Houston game.  I think one could make a better car for your Houston pick over My Boston pick.

    Good luck. Hoping you hit all but one, is that fair lol.  Get em smack


    Best of luck to you today as well, my friend!...

    Noting a couple of adjustments I will be making to the system...after watching Miami and Baltimore perform much better than expected in their respective series with the NYMs and Cleveland Indians...I went back and looked at a few things...

    One interesting thing that stood out is that both teams in both series had a (-) SRS rating ...In the future, if both teams have a (-) value in the SRS, I'm going to require a (1.5) difference in their ratings to make it a play instead of a (1.0) as I have been using to this point...

    It seems the worse a team is, they must have more of an advantage to be a play...if I had been using the (1.5) in these series, both Cleveland and the NYMs would have been weeded out as plays...

     
    LVTruck
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    Posted: May. 19, 2019 - 3:23 PM ET #191

    clover

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    clover

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 20, 2019 - 9:07 AM ET #192

    The system went 4-6 on day 22...overall now 104-71...11-11 the last 2 days which has not happened up to this date...

    Borderlines went 1-2 so you would have gone 3-4 with a slight improvement if you weeded them out as recommended...

    2 days of regression...

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    The system went 4-6 on day 22...overall now 104-71...11-11 the last 2 days which has not happened up to this date...

    Borderlines went 1-2 so you would have gone 3-4 with a slight improvement if you weeded them out as recommended...

    2 days of regression...

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 20, 2019 - 9:38 AM ET #193

    System plays for today...Day 22...

    Boston (+22) at Toronto (-25)
    NYY (+48) at Baltimore (-95)
    Chicago Cubs (+59) vs Philadelphia (+30)
    Texas (+10) vs Seattle (-34)
    Houston (+92) vs CW Sox (-37)
    Atlanta (+16) at S.F. (-42)
    Minnesota (+74) at LA Angels (0)
    Arizona (+28) at S.D. (-24)

    Borderline plays are the...

    Cubs
    Arizona

    Thus...the plays would be...

    Boston
    NYY
    Texas
    Houston
    Atlanta
    Minnesota

    Best of luck today!...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    System plays for today...Day 22...

    Boston (+22) at Toronto (-25)
    NYY (+48) at Baltimore (-95)
    Chicago Cubs (+59) vs Philadelphia (+30)
    Texas (+10) vs Seattle (-34)
    Houston (+92) vs CW Sox (-37)
    Atlanta (+16) at S.F. (-42)
    Minnesota (+74) at LA Angels (0)
    Arizona (+28) at S.D. (-24)

    Borderline plays are the...

    Cubs
    Arizona

    Thus...the plays would be...

    Boston
    NYY
    Texas
    Houston
    Atlanta
    Minnesota

    Best of luck today!...

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: May. 20, 2019 - 10:07 AM ET #194

    Good Luck today , smack  
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Good Luck today , smack  
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 21, 2019 - 2:13 AM ET #195

    Wow...this is what is called in gambling parlance a "bounceback day"...

    The system went 6-2 on day 22...but...even more amazing...the borderlines went 0-2....meaning that if you played the selected games where the borderline plays were weeded out...you went 6-0!!...

    This is the second perfect day of the system...the first was 5 days ago...and a very nice bounce back day indeed...it was sorely needed after 2 days of regression...

    Hopefully more of these ahead and less regression...


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    Wow...this is what is called in gambling parlance a "bounceback day"...

    The system went 6-2 on day 22...but...even more amazing...the borderlines went 0-2....meaning that if you played the selected games where the borderline plays were weeded out...you went 6-0!!...

    This is the second perfect day of the system...the first was 5 days ago...and a very nice bounce back day indeed...it was sorely needed after 2 days of regression...

    Hopefully more of these ahead and less regression...


     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 21, 2019 - 3:09 AM ET #196

    Forgot to put that the OVERALL record for the system is now 110-73...

    Also, made a mistake in saying the system plays minus the weeded out borderline plays had only had 2 perfect days...it's 3 perfect days in the last 6 days...

    Last 6 days of record of those final selections...

    6-0
    3-4
    3-3
    5-1
    3-0
    6-0

    6 day record of final plays is 26-8......76.5%....







    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Forgot to put that the OVERALL record for the system is now 110-73...

    Also, made a mistake in saying the system plays minus the weeded out borderline plays had only had 2 perfect days...it's 3 perfect days in the last 6 days...

    Last 6 days of record of those final selections...

    6-0
    3-4
    3-3
    5-1
    3-0
    6-0

    6 day record of final plays is 26-8......76.5%....







     
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 21, 2019 - 3:29 AM ET #197

    Maybe we should fade the borderline plays cool

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    Maybe we should fade the borderline plays cool

     
    Bigten51
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    Posted: May. 21, 2019 - 7:43 AM ET #198

    Great work!! peace_5

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    Great work!! peace_5

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: May. 21, 2019 - 9:11 AM ET #199

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:



    Last 6 days of record of those final selections...

    6-0
    3-4
    3-3
    5-1
    3-0
    6-0

    6 day record of final plays is 26-8......76.5%....






    Outstanding work , smack      
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:



    Last 6 days of record of those final selections...

    6-0
    3-4
    3-3
    5-1
    3-0
    6-0

    6 day record of final plays is 26-8......76.5%....






    Outstanding work , smack      
     
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 21, 2019 - 10:42 AM ET #200

    Quote Originally Posted by esposito10304:

    Maybe we should fade the borderline plays cool


    Nothing wrong with that idea for sure...would decrease the number of your plays as well...

    Day 23 of the RDS system plays are below...

    Chicago Cubs (+58) vs Philadelphia (+31)
    Colorado (-9) at Pittsburgh (-39)
    NYY (+51) at Baltimore (-98)
    Boston (+32) at Toronto (-35)
    Texas (+11) vs Seattle (-35)
    Houston (+95) vs CW Sox (-40)
    St. Louis (+20) vs K.C. (-36)
    Atlanta (+9) at S.F. (-45)
    Minnesota (+76) at LA Angels (-2)
    Arizona (+27) at S.D. (-23)

    Borderlines...

    Minnesota
    Colorado
    Boston

    So the plays for the day are...

    Chicago Cubs
    NYY
    Texas
    Houston
    St. Louis
    Arizona
    Atlanta

    If these go 7-0 today...man..I'm going to take the wife out to Pappas Brothers for a nice steak dinner...

    Good luck gentlemen!


    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by esposito10304:

    Maybe we should fade the borderline plays cool


    Nothing wrong with that idea for sure...would decrease the number of your plays as well...

    Day 23 of the RDS system plays are below...

    Chicago Cubs (+58) vs Philadelphia (+31)
    Colorado (-9) at Pittsburgh (-39)
    NYY (+51) at Baltimore (-98)
    Boston (+32) at Toronto (-35)
    Texas (+11) vs Seattle (-35)
    Houston (+95) vs CW Sox (-40)
    St. Louis (+20) vs K.C. (-36)
    Atlanta (+9) at S.F. (-45)
    Minnesota (+76) at LA Angels (-2)
    Arizona (+27) at S.D. (-23)

    Borderlines...

    Minnesota
    Colorado
    Boston

    So the plays for the day are...

    Chicago Cubs
    NYY
    Texas
    Houston
    St. Louis
    Arizona
    Atlanta

    If these go 7-0 today...man..I'm going to take the wife out to Pappas Brothers for a nice steak dinner...

    Good luck gentlemen!


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