Mavin's MLB Contest

definitely, hindsight is 20/20 but you weren't too far off on the reasoning, jordan zimmerman just happened to pitch a gem today!! i think we have to go back to what music matt was talking about with the nationals winning 70% of their home games and how it cashes out to take them at home every game by end of season. especially after losing 6 straight, appears their due for some cashes..

not sure bout tomorrow though as a sweep game is always a weary bet, especially against a team like the reds. but baileys a stud he threw well, he just struggles vs STL.. his only bad start on season.

like you said for bailey today, a better bet would have been the under.. but another better bet would of been under 3.5 TT Nats.. cause you can't truly predict all angles of a game, but you could predict how an individual starter will fare that day, or how a specific team matches up.. or in the case of the under how both pitchers splits are vs a team.. 

i try to ask myself stuff like, if this game was to go over.. why would it go over? would pitcher A struggle? would B struggle? would both? what's the weather like? what's past history like etc.. and if i don't think it'll go over then why etc..

not saying you or anyone else doesn't do that haha, but just trying to explain how i do it and see if anyone has some thoughts on it, never a right or wrong way in my opinion as long as your confident with your pick.

as you can see my record shows i'm still trying to pinpoint what bets are good for me, but the important part is what you're doing.. looking back and what could have been a better bet and why, then take these lessons into tomorrow.. never forget your wins or your losses..

i look bad now, but i won't finish this bad lol.. neither will you we'll be +1k soon enough man, patience self discipline and soaking info like a sponge, your hard work will pay off, i've already noticed both of our growth just by the juice on the bets and the reasoning.

and of course it's only April, long season, and many seasons to come, lots of learning to be had! 

sometimes before the game i believe when they learn someones been benched the line can move as well for that, but only a bit.. hard to tell when the 'fix' is in movement wise though, if that's what you were referring too, haven't caught that in baseball yet like i would in NCAA or NBA.. interested to see if anyone has any thoughts 

This was the right call because like I said about my total prediction in tigers applied the other way, these 2 were above average pitchers against great line ups... The line going over last night meant that today's line should have risen from last night but instead dropped enticing that over pick.

I think this is why the Giants go Under as YOU eluded to in your PM. 

Thank you for allowing me to speak. I believe in this and am starting to believe in myself. I believe in the people. I know we can and will be better!

I've told you, but I absolutely believe lines are telling... I am learning more about what it means...

I think the Braves being that much of a dog was a gift and a lot bit. Royals beating Tigers less likely, especially Verlander. It was like CC vs Verlander.

I've also seen ML's within 20 of one another tends to go Under. Worley hasn't gone Over in 2 starts I believe and I also believe the lines were within 20.

Also your pick, lol!

Don't go out and bet these plays... Just watch, so if I'm wrong, we will discuss.

I'm basing this on line alone.

Thanks buddy

such good observations man! instead of just blindly betting day to day, we should really remember the lines from previous days and compare them to what's out tomorrow.. sometimes it's easy to get caught up in a pitcher and what stats they have as opposed to what the line is offering on that given day, 

of course no trend is concrete, but they can definitely help you when it comes to influencing your picks/ noticing a trap game..

and we already discussed one time about mondays and tuesdays and how those tend to be getaway days/ start of new series.. and how travel time/ player fatigue can take effect on these days.. another thing to monitor, dont know what it means, but i can't get over that Tuesdays in particular have been miserable for the forum and my personal bankroll.. very interested to see how we fare next tuesday and monday. and what games are upsets those days and why.

side note mil-lad looks to be nearing right around the number, it was a low total, but might be due to pitchers park and unfamiliarity of burgos to the dodgers hitters.. just a guess.

Monday and Tuesday will have the Series Lines so we should be able to use this to our advantage. One big example of this was this past Rays/Yanks series. The line told me to bet against CC the first game, amongst other line factors we talk about.  These things support the write ups. 

not worried about jordan zimmermans cg as it took him only 91 pitches.. just thoughts but figure pitchers that go that high in pitch count this early.. has to be an after effect to it.

I like the way you are thinking there Ash, these are the types of plays that I try to make, Fading a pitcher after a great start or playing him after bad start.I know I am the weakest link here right now but most of my reads on the starting pitchers have been practically spot on.Take the braves game in colorado that tim hudson was pitching, hudson has a history throughout his career of bouncing back strong after a bad outing, something like 5 ER or more, and he did pitch well as I predicted but kimbrel who is usually automatic blew the 2 run lead in the 9th with 2 out, same thing with the bluejays game that same day, bullpen blew the 3 run lead.The bullpens blew the lead but my reads on the pitchers were right, the bullpens won't blow every lead so I'm confident that my record will get better after april which can be kind of fluky,  either that or I will adjust maybe to five or seven inning bets.there are sites that give you the breakdown for every start for a pitchers career, and if you observe closely you can see certain patterns that some pitchers have.Some get into grooves some are more inconsistent, some will have a bad start after throwing over 100 pitches some won't.Teams even have certain patterns, coming back from a long road trip certain teams love coming back home some have a let down.The key is doing the dirty work and trying to find those patterns because it can be different for every pitcher.And yes lines are very important also, just like in basketball when we see teams that are too big of favorites than they should be, then you know you should bet against them.Like last night the Braves, the lines were clearly trying to get you to bet the braves by sending out an overvalued dog line on them.I might not seem like someone that knows anything right now but this way of thinking brought me a lot of success last season and I'm sure it will bring more as the season goes on.Cheers gentlemen!