Posted:
#276
So what you're saying is it would be wise to take RL based on the win percentages for the plays in this thread?
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General Sharps MLB Picks
Posted:
#277
sports_Network, i really appreciate the hard work you did. Thank you. In my 20 years of betting, I originally use to bet run lines. I had a few years where they costed me a lot of money. I decided that even though there certainly is value in finding good run lines, I just preferred to have a more stable bankroll.
What I did not do is track run lines as I updated and refined my betting formula over the years. It seems to be a lot more efficient.
I will definitely begin back testing over the last 3 years and see if this is not just a random anomaly. It certainly does not look like it as I back tested the entire year with my records and it blew my mind. Pretty much the same win %.
Thanks again for your hard work and helping us work together to find the best possible +EV.
I will post plays in about 1 hour, just been really busy with family stuff.
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Posted:
#279
Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp:
Yes RedSox. You can bet 1
Unit on the run line and 1 Unit on the money line. In the 31 days of betting, I have never lost more than 2 days in a row. Your bankroll will still be ok with this consistent win percentage.
Yes RedSox. You can bet 1
Unit on the run line and 1 Unit on the money line. In the 31 days of betting, I have never lost more than 2 days in a row. Your bankroll will still be ok with this consistent win percentage.
Thanks so much Sharp for everything you're doing and all the hard work you're putting into beating the books
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Posted:
#280
No problem RedSox! Let's get some money!
Tonight's Plays: Monday September 15th, 2014: All lines are from Pinnacle Sports at the time of post.
Today we add run lines. Flat bet 1 Unit each for ml plays and run line plays. Despite the fact we are essentially betting 2 units per team, with the high win percentage sustained over 200+ plays, it will not adversely affect our bankroll.
We will continue this method until the end of the season and re-evaluate the results for next season and choose the optimal betting method.
MIA ML 2.44 (+144)
MIA RL 3.13 (+213)
DET ML 1.54 (-185)
DET RL 1.89 (-112)
4 plays total, flat bet 1 Unit each ($100).
Good luck everyone!
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Great capping!
Posted:
#288
Thanks guys.
Russ, my best sport is NHL followed by MLB. I also bet on NBA, but a lot less plays. I do not bet NFL or College Football.
I am Canadian so football I never grew up with really. Just hockey and baseball. I have tried to build NFL models but they have failed miserably. I just came up with a new NFL prototype system and so far this year I am 8-5. You can follow my NFL picks in my covers contest by clicking on the red RSI stars in my name. Tonight I have PHI +3, but these are just air plays. I am not betting any money on NFL (with the exception of a lotto parlay each week). If I have a winning record after week 4 I will start betting 1 Unit per NFL pick.
I will provide picks for NHL and NBA during the upcoming season of course. Best of luck.
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Posted:
#292
Great night, going 3/4.
MIA ML 2.44 (+144) - WIN $244
MIA RL 3.13 (+213) - LOSE $100
DET ML 1.54 (-185) - WIN $154
DET RL 1.89 (-112) - WIN $189
Overall cost of bets: $400
Overall winnings: $587
Overall profit: +$187, 1.87 Units
Record to Date: 140W - 88L, +15.69U, 61.4% Overall Winning Percentage
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $11,569, +$1569
Total Profit to Date (after 32 days of betting): +$1569, +15.69 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.49 Units profit per day. Current win % is 61.4%
My NFL thread is here too if you guys missed it: PHI +3 won, as well as the over
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101943819&page=1
Will post tomorrows plays in a few hours. Hope everybody had a great night!
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Posted:
#295
Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp:
No problem RS! Just glad we can all win and share knowledge. I see a lot of players fight with each other. Makes no sense. We have a common enemy and should work
together.
No problem RS! Just glad we can all win and share knowledge. I see a lot of players fight with each other. Makes no sense. We have a common enemy and should work
together.
Agreed. I took a shot at the book today with the Angels. I believe that was the easiest game on the board in quite a while. Coming off a loss with a solid pitcher. Never see odds like today's. Keep up the great work. Good nighta
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Posted:
#297
Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck66:
Just curious on your payout on the Detroit ml....flatbet 100 on a -185 is giving you a profit of 54? not a hater and not familiar with the decimal format since my proline days decades ago
I think my math is off ......I was assuming it would of been a decimal 1.15
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Posted:
#299
Today's Plays: Tues Sept 16th, 2014: All lines are from Pinnacle sports at the time of post.
As always, flat bet 1 Unit each ($100). 8 plays total. Good luck everyone.
STL ML 1.66 (-151)
STL RL 2.51 (+151)
DET ML 1.70 (-142)
DET RL 2.08 (+108)
OAK ML 1.42 (-236)
OAK RL 1.95 (-105)
PIT ML 1.58 (-173)
PIT RL 2.34 (+134)
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