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I know, passing out a few Cash Apps after we all sweat out a winner together is a horrible, deceptive practice. I get it. That’s what I was guilty of. I think I also motherfucked somebody somewhere along the way, but whatever.
Anyway, enough about my criminal past. This game starts in about 40 minutes, so let me get into it.
I know, passing out a few Cash Apps after we all sweat out a winner together is a horrible, deceptive practice. I get it. That’s what I was guilty of. I think I also motherfucked somebody somewhere along the way, but whatever.
Anyway, enough about my criminal past. This game starts in about 40 minutes, so let me get into it.
I honestly think if there were one major league pitcher I could get a hit off of, it’d be Grayson Rodriguez. That’s not even me trying to be funny. That’s how little I think of what he’s bringing to the table tonight
I honestly think if there were one major league pitcher I could get a hit off of, it’d be Grayson Rodriguez. That’s not even me trying to be funny. That’s how little I think of what he’s bringing to the table tonight
Now let’s get under the hood on Grayson Rodriguez. He carries an 8.54 ERA and 1.79 WHIP through nine starts, but the advanced numbers are nearly as ugly: 5.68 FIP, .411 xwOBA, 92.1 mph average exit velocity and a ridiculous 54.1% hard-hit rate.
He’s striking out only 16.1% while walking 10.2%, so he isn’t missing bats, he isn’t controlling the zone and when hitters make contact, they’re absolutely smoking him. He’s allowed at least two earned runs in eight of nine starts and three or more in seven of nine. This isn’t bad luck. He’s been every bit as bad as the ERA says.
Now let’s get under the hood on Grayson Rodriguez. He carries an 8.54 ERA and 1.79 WHIP through nine starts, but the advanced numbers are nearly as ugly: 5.68 FIP, .411 xwOBA, 92.1 mph average exit velocity and a ridiculous 54.1% hard-hit rate.
He’s striking out only 16.1% while walking 10.2%, so he isn’t missing bats, he isn’t controlling the zone and when hitters make contact, they’re absolutely smoking him. He’s allowed at least two earned runs in eight of nine starts and three or more in seven of nine. This isn’t bad luck. He’s been every bit as bad as the ERA says.
Now that we’ve established what Rodriguez has been, the next question is whether Houston is the right lineup to expose it. For me, the answer is yes.
Now that we’ve established what Rodriguez has been, the next question is whether Houston is the right lineup to expose it. For me, the answer is yes.
I did seriously consider double dipping here with Houston in the first five and full game. Wesneski reportedly looked very good leading into this start, but warm ups and live major league innings are two completely different things. Coming back from an injury, there are still questions about his command, stamina and how deep they’ll let him go. That uncertainty is the only reason I’m not attacking the first five as well.
I did seriously consider double dipping here with Houston in the first five and full game. Wesneski reportedly looked very good leading into this start, but warm ups and live major league innings are two completely different things. Coming back from an injury, there are still questions about his command, stamina and how deep they’ll let him go. That uncertainty is the only reason I’m not attacking the first five as well.
I’ve seen Houston move around at some of the softer books, but my sharper offshore account opened around -130 and has basically stayed there. That matters more to me than a graphic showing public ticket percentages. I’m not throwing away the handicap because one screen moved ten cents.
I’ve seen Houston move around at some of the softer books, but my sharper offshore account opened around -130 and has basically stayed there. That matters more to me than a graphic showing public ticket percentages. I’m not throwing away the handicap because one screen moved ten cents.

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