Posted:
#101
thanks Allday!
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Blue's Baseball System
Posted:
#102
Quote Originally Posted by blues2112:
It doesn’t cost anyone anything to sit back and watch…then everyone can find out if I am full of shit without spending a nickle.. I am not yelling or screaming or calling anything a lock, or a play of the decade, or anything of that nature.…The record at seasons end will speak for itself…check back in once and while to see how it is doing ….
What I see with a lot of cappers here is when they get hot, and have posted a good record…people do what we refer to as chasing profits in the financial industry…..A bunch of people jump on after the money has been made, expecting to so the same, the trend will eventually reverse itself, as stocks do not go straight up, and neither do winning records in gambling…it is up and down….just trying to achieve more ups than downsJ
Everybody has good runs and bad runs….this is gambling…I have posted my months records as above to inform everyone that this is not a golden pill, or magic, or anything other than a system designed to exploit the bookmakers over time…not over a week or two…..so when someone jumps in…they need to know the most likely outcome:
18 losing months vs 59 winning months in 11 years…
OR
1 out of 4 months will be a loser historically speaking….
I’m sure I’ll get some hate mail during points of the season and thats good...when I have a losing month I deserve it (notice I said WHEN I have a losing month, not IF I have a losing month - as I expect to have 1 out of 4)…
I just want everyone to use their head if they tail.
GL on the NCAA brackets everyone
Quite frankly, you seem like a very intellegent person, and your explanation for this is good enough for me. I don't know why everyone can't wait for a week or two before jumping to conclusions.
I wish you well. Looking forward to your future posts.
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Posted:
#103
First time reading this thread but i find it interesting that you already know your first wager will be on Friday yet you haven't even see the lines or pitching matchups. Makes me believe its obviously some kind of "chase system"! Personally i don't have issues with chase systems as money made is money made IMO. However, ive had 2 buddies who used chase systems that were with offshore books, who would NOT let them chase twice on their 3rd game chase which ended up costing them quite a bit of $$$$, and that has detoured me from chasing despite the fact that i have two books.
If this is a chase system then im assuming its Pitts/Cubs AND Florida/Washington as the Cubs and Florida both SWEPTED in their first serie meeting. Good luck Blue and i will be watching, just incase im wrong!
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Posted:
#105
Schreks…Definitely not a chase system….I do not know who the picks will be for Friday, I picked that date to start using this system due to the nature of the system..…I’m buying a baseball team who is undervalued or betting against one who is overvalued……and it is usually against public perception. The public needs time to formulate an opinion, and the oddmakers needs time to set the lines against the public…
Think of my system, which is 100% mathematical, of valuing each team like a stock price, when I feel a team is being undervalued by the oddmakers, I bet on it because there is value in the money line, when I feel a team is overvalued, I bet against that team……This is like value investing, except I am doing on baseball money lines instead of stocks.
Here is another key to this system: When a team and pitcher become overvalued and it wins, you win the same amount no matter what (unless you are varying your bets – which this system is a unit based and units should not be varied)..…….but when you take an overvalued team, it costs you more when it loses…..And trust me, all the extra $20, $30, $40, $50 you pay on the money lines add up fast….
Take 1997 for a simple example..lets say I was consistently betting favorites (which the public loves to do)..and I was paying $20 more on what the system considered to be overvalued teams (LIKE THE NYY)…I lost 263 game that year …I would of lost $5,260 more money over the season if I had done it 263 times…..I know it’s a simple example, but this system prevents overpaying for a team, thus maximizing profits (or investment returns if you will).
GL To all
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Posted:
#108
It works quite well for basketball also..which I'll get to that next fall.....
Football I cannot seem to get anything consistent, which is OK because it seems to be the only sport where I can use my head and not some sequence of mathmatical formulas and do fairly well in...
Haven't tried soccer, or hockey or anything else...
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Posted:
#109
First off this is a great forum Blues,
I also have a mathamtical system i follow for baseball, Howver i add some subjectivity to it. I will only eliminate plays with my personal opinion. I will never add a play based on personal opinion but elimination of a play if i feel very stongly about not playing it is an option.
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Posted:
#110
AChigurh...It's funny...I have tried to pick and choose some of the system plays...and every time I start using my head and disqualify a play...it wins.......
No one actually expects a team Like San Franciso to beat any other team this year....they are so horrible..but the truth is they will win 3 or 4 out of every 10 games they play..and they will be large dogs most of the time...so there is value there...
I have a saying..I would rather make money than make sense.....which my brain always tells me some of these plays make no sense. I have to force myself to bet them, which is part of the patience and consistency needed for this work correctly..
And as I'm sure you kinow..If the favorites always won, we'd all be rich.
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Posted:
#111
Adding subjectivity to capping that can remain purely objective is a big mistake.
As an example using NBA or NFL spreads, no one can definitively use instinct alone to win 53% of the time or better over the long haul. It might work for a week, month, year, but everything will eventually balance out at 50/50. So what you are effectively doing by adding your "gut" or "insight" to a play you are told to make by a system or spreadsheet is lowering your success rate by averaging out (let's say) 55% with 50%. This is, and there is no other way to put it, idiotic.
As an example using NBA or NFL spreads, no one can definitively use instinct alone to win 53% of the time or better over the long haul. It might work for a week, month, year, but everything will eventually balance out at 50/50. So what you are effectively doing by adding your "gut" or "insight" to a play you are told to make by a system or spreadsheet is lowering your success rate by averaging out (let's say) 55% with 50%. This is, and there is no other way to put it, idiotic.
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Posted:
#112
I find it interesting that your(blue2112) system works for Basketball as well. Is it as profitable over as many years? Also, why is it everyone jumps on and says they have a profitable system too? Nobody seems to share their system, but rather state that they are profitable. Gratz!!
Instead of eating fish, I'm looking for some fishing lessons. Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.
Unfortunately, I lack the mental fortitude to develop a system from scratch for any sport on my own. The fact that blues system is purely quantitative and not qualitative is probably something that I could use. So if Blue (or anyone else for that matter) could post their methodology for handicapping (or provide links) that would be great, or recommend some books for developing handicapping systems.
Instead of eating fish, I'm looking for some fishing lessons. Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.
Unfortunately, I lack the mental fortitude to develop a system from scratch for any sport on my own. The fact that blues system is purely quantitative and not qualitative is probably something that I could use. So if Blue (or anyone else for that matter) could post their methodology for handicapping (or provide links) that would be great, or recommend some books for developing handicapping systems.
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Posted:
#115
I'll buy your system, or your picks! monthy charge? Or are they for free, that you post on covers on a regular basis.? Let me know, I need to get a few good cappers, that I can ride, and pay, so I dont continue to compulsively bet on the majority of losers and winners, that have simply made me, one of those (LOSERS) IN the long run....But I'm young, and i'll turn it around :-) . Or I'll continue to gamble, and try to take care of my fix, until I lose my house, and family... Or I follow pics, from good cappers, and don't give in, with the constant urge to bet?
No more bettin the second half Nba game at 10:35 after I get out of work. Golden State and Phoenix,- trying to cover on their high spread overs on a regular basis
Alright, I came to a conclusion, to see if my boss will let me, switch to 1st shift, instead of 2nd. This way I'll be able to place one too many parlay bets, and hone over my laptop and pray that my $20 turns into $68.75
OCD sucks! EVen worse, when your fathers a drug rep, and your taking the pills he sells to the doctors....
Someone? Lord?
thanks
ryan
No more bettin the second half Nba game at 10:35 after I get out of work. Golden State and Phoenix,- trying to cover on their high spread overs on a regular basis
Alright, I came to a conclusion, to see if my boss will let me, switch to 1st shift, instead of 2nd. This way I'll be able to place one too many parlay bets, and hone over my laptop and pray that my $20 turns into $68.75
OCD sucks! EVen worse, when your fathers a drug rep, and your taking the pills he sells to the doctors....
Someone? Lord?thanks
ryan
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Posted:
#117
LOL Brendanb....nto trying to amaze everyone.just tyring to make some money....but it is a season long event..so patience and consistency is required...should be around 55-56% winning percentage at season's end.....Let's hope we come out of the gate with a fast break and not look back.....
rss500.....all season ..this systems picks for free....but there times where they may be 5 -6 or 7 days without picks.....so tail with your head..
new post will be started later today with picks once I can input today's money lines.....
On a side note..tomorrow (Sat) I will post the plays at about 6:00 AM..I will use www.sbrlines.com for the early lines as I have to run up to New York ...so I won't be aournd....just an FYI is you see the early post.
GL to ALL!!!
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