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Blue's Baseball System

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Posts: 119

blues2112

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 252

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 10:13 AM ET #76

OK to answer all of the questions:

Superfigg: I use a few sites to download most of the stats..but I do look at close games and see what happened, and adjust my stats accordingly...

To give you 1 example of what I am doing: letting a run score due to indifference because they are up 2 in the 9th...I adjust accordingly...Screws with a a pitchers ERA, especially early in the season, and also, pumps up the other teams run scored per game, again, more so early in the season....which than would mess with my system...which is part of my key to what i am doing..throwing out the crap and keeping the true stats to get a true number

Sportsrecords: I will post all season long....and I will try to get them out early in the morning as soon as I can get an early line on the games...I have a real job so occassionally I may be a little late with the post...

Cool Money & Brendanb

As far as biggest drawdown and bankroll...I wait until the middle of April, due to the fact that the 1 year when I lost money..I lost 95% of it in April... See below for my min and max year to year for drawdown...Spent the whole damn season just getting back to even...

Remember my baseball plays are always for the same amount, for example, if you are a $100 a unit better- favorites are always to win $100, (example $200 to win $100) and dogs are always $100 to win whatever the math comes out to ($100 to win $200) ....if you bet $100 a unit…..keep it that way all season. This takes patience!!!

This chart represents the most I was up or down in any 1 season, hence also why I suggest a $2,000 bankroll ...this is $100 a unit

Min Max Final

1997 (1,982) 5,926 $2,693

1998 (1,725) 5,396 $3,586

1999 (1,196) 9,172 $8,838

2000 (1,528) 8,874 $6,888

2001 (459) 13,116 $12,916

2002 (325) 8,998 $8,398

2003 (548) 6,807 $6,807

2004 (6,081) 100 ($701)

2005 (286) 7,554 $4,479

2006 (1,030) 5,983 $5,173

2007 (341) 11,396 $11,396

Generally speaking , Aside from 1 year....all you need is $2,000 per unit....That is not to say this year will not be different, but from a % standpoint...10 out of 11 years you would be fine..

G/L To all

OK to answer all of the questions:

Superfigg: I use a few sites to download most of the stats..but I do look at close games and see what happened, and adjust my stats accordingly...

Cool Money & Brendanb

This chart represents the most I was up or down in any 1 season, hence also why I suggest a $2,000 bankroll ...this is $100 a unit

Min Max Final

1997 (1,982) 5,926 $2,693

1998 (1,725) 5,396 $3,586

1999 (1,196) 9,172 $8,838

2000 (1,528) 8,874 $6,888

2001 (459) 13,116 $12,916

2002 (325) 8,998 $8,398

2003 (548) 6,807 $6,807

2004 (6,081) 100 ($701)

2005 (286) 7,554 $4,479

2006 (1,030) 5,983 $5,173

2007 (341) 11,396 $11,396

Generally speaking , Aside from 1 year....all you need is $2,000 per unit....That is not to say this year will not be different, but from a % standpoint...10 out of 11 years you would be fine..

G/L To all

blues2112

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 252

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 10:17 AM ET #77

One more thing...I will grade my plays on the final line posted on Wagerline......

Plays start Next Friday!!!

KongKiller

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 2628

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 10:27 AM ET #78

Is this similiar to the system the guy is spamming on the other forum? They guarantee you will win something like 97% of you sports bets. How does your system differ from this one? Here is the link.

https://www.sportsbettingchamp.com/?hop=winpicks12

Maybe you can tell me the difference! I am looking for a good Baseball system to tryout. I usually skip baseball after basketball is over to save some cash! LOL

thegodfather512

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 75

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 10:38 AM ET #79

Quote Originally Posted by blues2112:

OK to answer all of the questions:

Superfigg: I use a few sites to download most of the stats..but I do look at close games and see what happened, and adjust my stats accordingly...

Cool Money & Brendanb

This chart represents the most I was up or down in any 1 season, hence also why I suggest a $2,000 bankroll ...this is $100 a unit

Min Max Final

1997 (1,982) 5,926 $2,693

1998 (1,725) 5,396 $3,586

1999 (1,196) 9,172 $8,838

2000 (1,528) 8,874 $6,888

2001 (459) 13,116 $12,916

2002 (325) 8,998 $8,398

2003 (548) 6,807 $6,807

2004 (6,081) 100 ($701)

2005 (286) 7,554 $4,479

2006 (1,030) 5,983 $5,173

2007 (341) 11,396 $11,396

Generally speaking , Aside from 1 year....all you need is $2,000 per unit....That is not to say this year will not be different, but from a % standpoint...10 out of 11 years you would be fine..

G/L To all

Blues I was wondering what sites you use to get stats I'm looking for some good sites?

Thanks

thegodfather

Quote Originally Posted by blues2112:

OK to answer all of the questions:

Superfigg: I use a few sites to download most of the stats..but I do look at close games and see what happened, and adjust my stats accordingly...

Cool Money & Brendanb

This chart represents the most I was up or down in any 1 season, hence also why I suggest a $2,000 bankroll ...this is $100 a unit

Min Max Final

1997 (1,982) 5,926 $2,693

1998 (1,725) 5,396 $3,586

1999 (1,196) 9,172 $8,838

2000 (1,528) 8,874 $6,888

2001 (459) 13,116 $12,916

2002 (325) 8,998 $8,398

2003 (548) 6,807 $6,807

2004 (6,081) 100 ($701)

2005 (286) 7,554 $4,479

2006 (1,030) 5,983 $5,173

2007 (341) 11,396 $11,396

Generally speaking , Aside from 1 year....all you need is $2,000 per unit....That is not to say this year will not be different, but from a % standpoint...10 out of 11 years you would be fine..

G/L To all

Blues I was wondering what sites you use to get stats I'm looking for some good sites?

Thanks

thegodfather

spliquid

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 3454

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 10:51 AM ET #80

Blue, The Godfather? Is Will Ferrell going streaking too?

blues2112

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 252

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 10:56 AM ET #81

OK, 1st thing is that 97% winning percentage is just a plain stupid comment to make. He is spamming for people to cough up money to him.....If I were going to spam I would at least make it believable.....You must realize that even the best and most knowledgeable handicappers win at a rate of about 57% to 60% in the long run.

Second thing is that baseball is not about winning percentage since we are betting on the money line.,,,

The large majority of people that wager on sporting events believe that they are going to win, but the fact is that the large majority of sports betters lose in the long run. In fact, the average sports bettor wins at a rate of 48%, which is worse than if they had just flipped a coin. So what does it take to beat the break even mark? A winning % of 52.4% (you need to win 11 bets for every 10 you lose and 11 divided by 21 is equal to .524).

Many sports bettors that think winning 60% of their bets is easy and that they can do even better than that. If they can, that’s great. But more than likely, those that think that they win at least 60% of their bets are suffering from selective memory......

One popular misconception is that winning 58% of your bets will not make you much money. On the contrary, 58% winners at 11 to 10 odds will make you plenty of profit over the course of the year.

KongKiller

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 2628

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 2:48 PM ET #82

That could be true Blue, I think what that system means is series. That he can successfully pick 97% of series, not games. At least thats what someone told me.

nccashman

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 2378

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 2:59 PM ET #83

yeah it's a chase system of some sort...it does definitely work in NBA but you have to be disciplined and buy 3 pts in basketball, not sure what the system is for baseball

king08

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2006

Posts: 3293

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 3:00 PM ET #84

Its a chase system for three games....

Superfigg

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2006

Posts: 4129

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 9:59 PM ET #85

Quote Originally Posted by blues2112:

OK to answer all of the questions:

Superfigg: I use a few sites to download most of the stats..but I do look at close games and see what happened, and adjust my stats accordingly...

I was referring to record tracking program,, like say +2200 one day and -1800 next,, etc etc...

jlt9889

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 4453

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 10:35 PM ET #86

cant wait

JGROMACK

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 4864

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 11:14 PM ET #87

Ill give you one thing

Your a great salesman.......

You have barely explained your product and you already have a herd of sheep. Well done.

I wonder if it will last as long as the hype. GL

brendanb438

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 2201

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 11:20 PM ET #88

Looking at your stats for the 11 years if I am reading it correctly and the MIN is the most you were down from your starting bankroll at one point then 6 of 11 years you pretty much either had to reload to continue betting what you were or getting pretty damn lucky to get out of the whole. You can't go negative half your roll or greater leaving you less than 10 units to bet with and be betting up to 9 units a day and not go broke more than 1 in 11. This is MATRIXX MATH to say you only had an issue one year doing this.

I hope to god you people see this and don't just blindly follow the salesman here. I am sorry but if you aren't a tout then you probably should be one and honestly should be treated as one.

brendanb438

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 2201

Posted: Apr. 13, 2008 - 11:23 PM ET #89

Again just looking at your stats I would say you should expect to go broke >50% of the time with this type of "system" and lack of bankroll management.

If you don't believe me I will release the 2+2 math hounds on this thread and they will rip your #s apart.

Are you trying to say you didn't have to redeposit any of those years except for the one you were -6000 at one point?

Lonnie82

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 653

Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 12:10 AM ET #90

Hey brendan, I guess we'll find out in the next month if he's full of smoke or not.

brendanb438

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 2201

Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 12:52 AM ET #91

It isn't about "smoke" it is about the math and the probability of going broke with so few units. If you are one of the sheep who can't see this than you will always be "tailing" someone and will never actually make real money in this industry on your own.

There isn't any waiting involved. His own stats prove that your are highly likely to go broke on your initial deposit and that you will be redepositing or outright quiting.

lawstyle

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 291

Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 12:57 AM ET #92

Brendan, you're right, the math doesn't work out in favor of a $2,000 bankroll betting $100 a unit... One would need about 4 grand to go with this at 100 a unit.

If the system goes in a slump and drops 2 grand at some point, another 2 grand would be necessary to get it out of the this whole.

That doesn't mean this guy is lying, it just means he miscalculated how much one would need to follow the system.

lawstyle

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 291

Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 12:58 AM ET #93

"the this whole" should read "this hole"

Lonnie82

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 653

Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 1:00 AM ET #94

I got 3k. I'm ready.....

brendanb438

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 2201

Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 1:05 AM ET #95

whole or hole we know what you mean. I hate how you can't edit a post at least within 5 minutes of posting. I see shit like that after I hit send all the time.

GAMBLE_4heisman

Veteran

Joined: May, 2003

Posts: 4825

Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 1:05 AM ET #96

if you guys are poker players there is a great book called the mathematics of poker with a great chapter on 'risk of ruin' everyone should read and be familiar with this as it applies to sportbetting bankrolls as well.

blues2112

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 252

Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 9:56 AM ET #97

Wow, this is a lot of interest here…but let me make a few clarifications for everyone….

1.) I am not selling anything….so there is no explanation of my “product”, because there is no product….This system is fairly complicated and complex ..so it would take a month of Sundays for me to get down to all the details..

2.) This is about 20 years of research and learning which I have basically kept to myself save for a few good friends..…it seems that everyone gets on here touting Play of Day or Play of the Year or whatever…I am just a guy who has a way of handicapping baseball and will post his picks like everyone else.

3.) Tail or fade…it’s your choice. The record will speak for itself…

4.) As for the bankroll…If you use a local….all you have needed is $2,000 because you would of never been down more than that except 1 year…I understand a lot of people use online wagering, so then you would need to reload your account, and then it would become $4,000 as stated in an above post. I do not use online hardly at all... much more a few locals...so I think more in terms of credit – I run 2 week intervals with them and then we square up, …so my fault on that one..I just do not think in terms of "reloading" my account with locals.

5.) As stated in my previous post…I expect to lose 1 out of every 4 months......if you are trying to get even with your guy because you are buried..this is not the system for you.....it is a consistent approach to betting baseball that has produced positive results over time -Nothing more.