Posted:
#26
so did you take money from your bookie that sat you down and talked to you?
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Blue's Baseball System
Posted:
#27
blues, I like your energy but let me play devils ad. for 1 moment. I do follow some regression models like you but sometimes, esp. with pitchers in baseball the market is responding to situations which some recent performances have clarified. Pitchers , even medicore ones, can be very streaky. Sharps can move a line 20+cents based on the Ump/pitcher relationship and without digging deep 1 can confuse these moves with public $$ following a good start Ex T Glavine piching to certain umps with huge strikzones. I am curious though and wish you many positive units.
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Posted:
#29
CheersM8.....no….I had to make payments...I got about half way through and he told me he'd let me slide on the rest if I never bet again.....well, I took it to mean not with him:-) Plus, I spent 8 years donating to another local before I got my crap together..I'm 38 now....and have done fairly well for the last 10 - 11 years.
Mr.Advantage…very good points..there are so many factors that play into line movements that it is hard to try and capture all of them. I tried to come up with a formula that could be measured off of hard data.
Pitcher/Umpire relationships could be translated into hard data and incorporated into this sytem ...how? Well I'd have to do some research, but off hand ..I am sure certain pitchers would have an ERA significantly lower with certain umpires...and also higher. Let’s face it, I don’t like everyone I work with, I try to be professional about things, but when there is emotion involved, anything goes.
I’m sure certain umpires hate certain pitchers, or managers, or whatever….and it does affect their calling of balls and strikes... Not sure the % of games where this would become a factor, but it’s worth a look.
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Posted:
#30
CheersM8.....no….I had to make payments...I got about half way through and he told me he'd let me slide on the rest if I never bet again.....well, I took it to mean not with him:-) Plus, I spent 8 years donating to another local before I got my crap together..I'm 38 now....and have done fairly well for the last 10 - 11 years.
Mr.Advantage…very good points..there are so many factors that play into line movements that it is hard to try and capture all of them. I tried to come up with a formula that could be measured off of hard data.
Pitcher/Umpire relationships could be translated into hard data and incorporated into this sytem ...how? Well I'd have to do some research, but off hand ..I am sure certain pitchers would have an ERA significantly lower with certain umpires...and also higher. Let’s face it, I don’t like everyone I work with, I try to be professional about things, but when there is emotion involved, anything goes.
I’m sure certain umpires hate certain pitchers, or managers, or whatever….and it does affect their calling of balls and strikes... Not sure the % of games where this would become a factor, but it’s worth a look.
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Posted:
#36
"I will post this same post maybe twice a week for those who have not seen it….until the plays start Friday, April 18th. GL to all."
Whats your theory on starting April 18th? I know the first couple of weeks are about still figuring out where pitchers and batters are in terms of hot/cold, but you seem to have a date.
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Posted:
#39
Yep..April 18th is the date I will start posting......I will post later tonight after work about why April 18th..there is a good reason..I'll give you guys a month by month breakdown for the last 11 years of returns....then you'll see why mid April is a good starting date...
Also, I am going to post a little about money management with this system....most of you guys know this stuff but I want to make sure everyone understands the philosophy of this system..It is time based...not make a zillion dollars in a day or two...I hate to see a college kid blow his education fund because he saw a post on Covers.com.....sad, but it happens.
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Im real interested in ur SYSTEM, Ive tried ALOT over 40yrs of Gamblin'.......and my 1st LOVE is Baseball. Played in the Air Force....not good enough for the Bigs. Good Stick / NO glove.
Posted:
#41
6.) I pick baseball teams, not pitchers – when I post a pick, I take them regardless of who is on the mound. (that is the another key to this system).
What about lets say, hitter vs. pitcher history?
Like even the worst hitter can have a field day against one specific ace based on previous AB's....does your system take that into account? And vice versa......
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Posted:
#42
11 year results based
on $100 per unit.
April May June July
1997 ($1,213) $1,825 $2,082 $2,304
1998 $236 $1,060 ($2,051) $4,026
1999 ($364) $2,264 $258 $40
2000 ($1,228) $3,628 $222 $3,645
2001 $3,820 $74 $4,610 ($1,736)
2002 $336 $1,054 $873 $4,450
2003 $514 $726 $1,183 $2,369
2004 ($5,781) $1,022 $418 ($420)
2005 ($34) $3,548 $1,848 $610
2006 $273 $2,400 $860 $38
2007 $1,772 $1,807 $2,443 ($774)
Total ($1,669) $19,408 $12,746 $14,552
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Posted:
#43
Aug September Oct Total per year
1997 ($856) ($684) ($756) $2,693
1998 $203 ($67) $179 $3,586
1999 $4,748 $2,226 ($334) $8,838
2000 $2,607 ($2,314) $328 $6,888
2001 $4,293 $1,584 $271 $12,916
2002 $1,361 $324 $0 $8,398
2003 $52 $1,408 $555 $6,807
2004 $1,593 $1,407 $1060 ($701)
2005 $320 ($902) ($911) $4,479
2006 $1,402 ($370) $570 $5,173
2007 $2,216 $2,392 $1,540 $11,396
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Posted:
#44
Hey guys, tried to get this a full chart format - it will not let me post a spread sheet, gives me an error about 7800 character limit...so I had to do it like this..as you can see, there is much to be discerned from the historical results below.
1.) April is the worst month – mainly, my only losing year(2004) - it was all done in April, over 5 grand…..spent the rest of the year clawing back to a $701 loser……Of that month, it was almost all due to the 1st few weeks…
2.) April has lost 5 years, won 6 years…so it proves I have to let the public and the lines makers get into a groove before this kicks in.
3.) May, June, July and Aug are the best months …..
4.) Please note there are only 2 years when I did not have a losing month sometime during the season, 2002 & 2003.
5.) I suggest a $2,000 bankroll for every $100 bet – that should be enough to weather the downturns and profit from the upswings. Average return for a $100 better would be $6,406 + the initial $2,000 bankroll – so early Oct you’d have $8,406 on average.
If you want to bet $500 a unit…I suggest a $10,000 bankroll…projected profit of $32,033 early Oct, plus the $10,000 bankroll you never lost = $42,033
6.) Remember this is a system based on fundamental indicators derived from stats….it is designed to make money over time….think long term strategy…most betters think very short term….like how much do I have to pay at the end of the week, or how much do I get paid?
GL to all with your plays
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Posted:
#45
MLKing..there is already a website out there that does that….it has every MLB batter in the lineup against every pitcher and gives a statistical chance of that team winning each night…very small gains at the end of the year…..but it has posted a profit for like the last 8 years or so…..some math nut at one of the universities developed it...
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Posted:
#48
Best of luck this year hopefully you can join a few others of us who have been regulars on here for a while. I definitely agree with you waiting as the beginning of the season is a feeling out point for everyone including the umpires, bookies, and the teams as everyone tries to get in a groove and find the best formulas at each aspect of the game to produce a winning team. The first few weeks are pretty much lines based on previous performance and off season acquisitions for example I love the mets but because of the Santana effect even despite his troubles last year and not having the outfield that Minnesota had speed wise, he is going to be a ridiculous favorite the first month of the season. I like what you are doing and agree with you on the move. Last year I started 4-15 and was down 5 units before I ended up at 55% and up 28 units by the allstar break. As i am sure I am thinking the same as everyone else here I wish you the best of luck this season and hope to see you around for a while 
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Posted:
#49
It doesn’t cost anyone anything to sit back and watch…then everyone can find out if I am full of shit without spending a nickle.. I am not yelling or screaming or calling anything a lock, or a play of the decade, or anything of that nature.…The record at seasons end will speak for itself…check back in once and while to see how it is doing ….
What I see with a lot of cappers here is when they get hot, and have posted a good record…people do what we refer to as chasing profits in the financial industry…..A bunch of people jump on after the money has been made, expecting to so the same, the trend will eventually reverse itself, as stocks do not go straight up, and neither do winning records in gambling…it is up and down….just trying to achieve more ups than downsJ
Everybody has good runs and bad runs….this is gambling…I have posted my months records as above to inform everyone that this is not a golden pill, or magic, or anything other than a system designed to exploit the bookmakers over time…not over a week or two…..so when someone jumps in…they need to know the most likely outcome:
18 losing months vs 59 winning months in 11 years…
OR
1 out of 4 months will be a loser historically speaking….
I’m sure I’ll get some hate mail during points of the season and thats good...when I have a losing month I deserve it (notice I said WHEN I have a losing month, not IF I have a losing month - as I expect to have 1 out of 4)…
I just want everyone to use their head if they tail.
GL on the NCAA brackets everyone
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Posted:
#50
Quote Originally Posted by FSUDrew:
Best of luck this year hopefully you can join a few others of us who have been regulars on here for a while. I definitely agree with you waiting as the beginning of the season is a feeling out point for everyone including the umpires, bookies, and the teams as everyone tries to get in a groove and find the best formulas at each aspect of the game to produce a winning team. The first few weeks are pretty much lines based on previous performance and off season acquisitions for example I love the mets but because of the Santana effect even despite his troubles last year and not having the outfield that Minnesota had speed wise, he is going to be a ridiculous favorite the first month of the season. I like what you are doing and agree with you on the move. Last year I started 4-15 and was down 5 units before I ended up at 55% and up 28 units by the allstar break. As i am sure I am thinking the same as everyone else here I wish you the best of luck this season and hope to see you around for a while
Best of luck this year hopefully you can join a few others of us who have been regulars on here for a while. I definitely agree with you waiting as the beginning of the season is a feeling out point for everyone including the umpires, bookies, and the teams as everyone tries to get in a groove and find the best formulas at each aspect of the game to produce a winning team. The first few weeks are pretty much lines based on previous performance and off season acquisitions for example I love the mets but because of the Santana effect even despite his troubles last year and not having the outfield that Minnesota had speed wise, he is going to be a ridiculous favorite the first month of the season. I like what you are doing and agree with you on the move. Last year I started 4-15 and was down 5 units before I ended up at 55% and up 28 units by the allstar break. As i am sure I am thinking the same as everyone else here I wish you the best of luck this season and hope to see you around for a while
FSU - the more you learn about baseball the more you'll realize that win loss % means zero in baseball. if you bet 90%+ dogs (which you should) and hit 45% you will have a very nice season...48-51% is a great season
best of luck this season guys
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