Blue's Baseball System

Year    Total   Lose    Win     Win %            $500 per Play

1997    566      263      303      53.53%            $13,465.00

1998    733      347      386      52.66%            $17,905.00

1999    643      266      377      58.63%            $44,190.00

2000    691      301      390      56.44%            $34,440.00

2001    753      293      460      61.09%            $64,580.00

2002    510      216      294      57.65%            $41,990.00

2003    517      215      302      58.41%            $34,035.00

2004    713      333      380      53.30%            $(3,005.00)

2005    523      232      291      55.64%            $22,395.00

2006    595      262      333      55.97%            $25,865.00

2007    720      310      410      56.94%            $56,980.00

                                    11 Year Total             $352,840.00

                                    Ave per Year              $  32,076.36

Thanks for the interest everyone - I'll post this weekend and elaborate more on this system for those that are interested... I can tell you that my background is in finance -. And I look at sports betting like investing...it has to make sense and have a good return over the long haul...anyone can be a 1-hit wonder and go 6-0 on a night or have some good weeks here and there….but what is their worth over a season?...very few betters make a profit on the long run – although most will tell you otherwise.

Here is a good story about how all this came about - about 20 years ago I got in over my head to my local guy, who I also happened to go to school with his son. I was in college and working as a waiter….so my means were slim at the time…After telling his runner at the time that I was going to have to make payments….the next day his son comes up to me at school  and tells me his father wanted to see me. 1^st thought through my head was “Oh Sh!t”, - there were two partners who ran this operation…and they were the biggest ones around, so I thought for sure I had some serious problems.  Anyways, this guy knew I was a good kid who was going about things the wrong way so he just wanted to sit me down and get my head screwed on straight. So after talking to me like I was the degenerate I was for about 10 minutes, he looks at me and tells me that I couldn’t beat him – nobody ever had, and nobody ever would. I could beat him for a week or a month, but over time, he would always come out ahead.

I call that story the “ How I almost got whacked story”:  Of coarse I was never going to get whacked but for a 19 year old kid, I was scared shitless.

Well, the worst thing you could do to me is tell me that I can’t do something. I am very competitive and I remember that conversation word for word to this day. It is sort of burned into my mind. Anyways, about 7 or 8 years and 500 spreadsheets later…I come up with the main part of this system….I am sort of obsessive compulsive about things like this, and I have spent a ton of time tweaking this system for better results since them. 

I'll post more htis weekend about this - I am off to the bar to catch a few brews before going home.

Superfigg……+60 units is fantastic for last year…..in baseball, it’s not the winning % but the units…I usually go $500 a unit..so you would of made me $30,000 last yearJ

To answer your questions:

#1 no, there is no subjectivity in my picks…every time I think I know what is going to happen, it usually doesn’t…..my brain like to pick favs and overs, like the rest of the world…..so I take my opinions and gut feelings off of the table.  That is why the public always loses - the favorites do not always win.  Last season, the best teams in MLB won 6 and lost 4, the worst teams won 4 and lost 6…. If you bet favorites and bet to win $100, anything above 3 to 2 odds put you in negative territory last year….

6 Wins @ $100 each                =          $600

4 Loses @ $-150 each             =          -$600

#2. I feel the starting pitchers value is usually based on their last start or two…throw a complete  game, shut down a good offense, have 10 strikeouts…...and you are suddenly $50 more expensive on the money line the next posted line…If you are an investor, this is basically a value-investment system.. I’m buying a baseball team who is undervalued or betting against one who is overvalued……and it is usually against public perception. Sport-center runs a piece on a pitcher, about what kind a great season he is having, the same melodramatic crap they always have on…and wham, he’s $40-$50 overvalued next pick because the public saw it and wants to bet on him…It doesn’t mean he is not going to win…it just costs you more when he loses… That is exactly what my system prevents – overpaying for a pitcher or a team.

 It tracks what I consider to be parity – the true value for any team at any given time and takes out emotion, news reports, winning streaks, weather, etc..all the stuff that influences my brain. Trust me, I have proven with out a doubt that my brain is fallible….it was a very expensive learning curve for me in my 20’sJ

If both your system and my system both pick the same team…then we hammer it..

GL to all..let’s make some money this summer boys (and girls if you are out there)…