1st half 19 thread

Today was ugly but my only holding that looked bad was OMER.Disappointed with todays action,I cant see why folks would dump on days like today esp when ER coming and we know they are pretty much guaranteed to beat expected revs.Shorts still nearly 25% of float maybe that helped today,who knows.Exp 24.2 I believe,most of what I read is looking for 10% increase over last qtr which was 22 mill.Last call Dr stated Jan was double low double digit increase in sales % over Dec.We were told Dec run rate was over 100 mill a yr so 8.5 mill(ish).An article from Bloomberg has said Feb sales were up 18% from Jan..I bought $19 May 17th calls,way early I might add so I need the Dr to deliver!!

Swinging some calls today..

Yeah.....Tuesday was a bummer. I like Trump but I don't understand why he thinks tarrifs on China are a good thing for us here in the USA. The end result of tarrifs are higher consumer prices and thus, higher inflation. The US consumer ends up paying the tax in the form of higher prices and businesses pay the price in the form of shrinking margins. Let's hope this trade deal gets resolved soon.

After decades of investing, I get numb to these days of downward volatility. They are inevitable and will happen more and more often with computers having taken over a huge % of the trading activity. Last November was pretty brutal.....losing 28K in one day and another 20K the next will test the soul of any buy and hold investor.....but after surviving 2008-2009 I have learned that patience wins in the end. 

Buck....check out CVS for a long term hold. Somehow it avoided the meltdown this week and held strong. If they make it though this next earnings cycle without a surprise, there will be no way to go but up from here. The stock is CHEAP, CHEAP, CHEAP with a forward p/e of 8. CVS could return 20-40% over the next 12 months with a small drawdown risk. 

This is my favorite play right now with markets near all time highs. The probability that CVS will outperform the overall market is extremely high. 

 

Will check into it Gamble..take a serious look at KGKG..not saying put ur retirement in there but a few grand.If these kats actually start turning a profit soon this could be a real nice play.

Markets getting wrecked all week long and my positions are down 35K yet CVS is still holding above my $54 purchase price. Buck...surely you find this interesting, no? This confirms my thoughts on CVS last week. Markets are down roughly 4% and CVS hasn't dropped. 

This is not obviously the way I wanted CVS to outperform the markets, but it does give a strong indication that CVS has bottomed out and set for a strong recovery. The 3.75% dividend is really the cherry on top!

KGKG was dumped today losing about 25% before rebounding nicely

Trump may not fully understand that tariffs are INFLATIONARY and result directly in higher consumer prices. This forces consumers to purchase less of the goods that have tariffs imposed on them or fewer of some other product. In the end, a tariff indirectly lowers the ability of the consumer to spend via inflation.

Regardless of whether Trump understands, the MARKETS definitely understand that tariffs are an indirect tax on the consumer. Yes, tariffs puts more money in the hands of the GOVERNMENT, but we all have seen that the government does not spend money as wisely than the consumer sector. 

Our markets potentially have a lot of unwinding to do if this trade deal ends up in a full blown trade war. One could argue that a tariff results in the same effect as a drop in GNP and consumer income. Consider me concerned that Trump thinks he can outsmart the laws of economics. 

 

How exactly can the Chinese retaliate, they're a exporter not a importer(except oil) and are in a precarious situation with US and EU... they basically shot their wad with latest round of tariffs on US goods and have no bullets left. 

INTEL exports 25% of their chips to China. The damage is/would not be limited to just Apple. CAT is another that will suffer. The bottom line is that tariffs put more money in the governments hands and less money in the hands of consumers. That is indisputable. 

I do appreciate your take on this, but I don't believe lowering exposure to Chinese products by 50% is possible. I do believe that Trump is measuring his "Presidential Success" partly on how the markets are performing. So he may be more motivated than you think on making this deal happen. A full blown trade war has the potential to unwind this market back to 52 week lows or even lower. 

Not interested in hijacking bucknuts excellent market discussion, if youd like to start a separate thread regarding China I'd enjoy a civil discussion as would others

I'm sure Buck will offer his thought on this subject as it will be the primary factor short term factor in the markets and thus his put/call strategy. 

Sorry fellas been a crappy last several days..my wife's favs aunt passed and I'm now down in Nashville on a job.

Sorry to hear the news Buck....condolences for your family. 

This is absolutely the strangest market. With the markets opening the week with the VIX over 21, I was braced for another down week expecting this downdraft to continue for a while longer. I suppose this is why the best strategy for me is to buy and hold as timing the markets is just too difficult. If you were buying calls on Monday you are a special breed of stock market guru.

Instead the VIX is bottoming out below 15 and suddenly everything is turning up roses????

It seems too easy.

I'm not totally convinced.... 

I went the wrong way this am..watched a guy make 300% twice on SPY and QQQ calls before 10 am.

USAT is my fav trade right now been buying early and dumping it back before I crash not making millions but it's been free money and one heck of a trade for me last few months..7s incoming IMO

I'm holding AMD $28 puts 5/24 paid .65 into next week..also went in on SLV again.Got 13.50 calls this time 5/24 paid .12

Eyeballing USO $13 5/24 puts too currently .13 might move on these before I go to sleep and ride into next week

Love the AMD put! Chips getting hit hard and expect that to continue for a bit....although I own AMD at 26.8 dont mind you scoring a few bucks at my expense

Nibbled at TW around 44, really like this tiny company to do big things next few years,,, buy order on YETI at 22.5 she needs to come to papa...sold IWM earlier this week realizing a 3.5% gain, finally realized it's going nowhere for a while compared to spy/qqq..

I watch a few guys trade Yeti and Roku..one guy is all over Roku a few times a week and his calls have been .

KGKG had news out Fri...leasing a bigger warehouse and paying for it with saving on shipping!Sales numbers for April also released and were 180k while qtr 2 was originally projected to be around 400k total.Gotta get back in here and hold some this time.

Oil gap up tonight will see where she opens..no problem adding DWT will cut the USO puts loose prob 

Locked in some AMD profit sold half at +114%

KGKG refuses to come into my strike zone, yes I'm looking for a bargain but is .09000 to much to ask for?

KGKG refuses to come into my strike zone, yes I'm looking for a bargain but is .09000 to much to ask for?