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    All Forums | General Discussion

    Poker Players - do you think that poker is beatable longterm?

    «First Previous 123 ... 101112 Next Last»
    ApocalypseLater
    vanzack
    be easy
    SuperiorInsight
    scalabrine
    ...
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    «First Previous 123 ... 101112 Next Last»
     
    ApocalypseLater
    ApocalypseLater
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    Posted: Aug. 18, 2010 - 3:23 AM ET #226

    Chris Moneymaker  (200:1)
    Phil Helmuth  (90:1)
    Doyle Brunson  (50:1)
    Joe Cada  (100:1)
    Phil Ivey  (50:1)

    no value at all on Phil Helmuth... the best players know he is extremely predictable, and if he did manage to get to the final table he would be abused...

    best value would be on long shots who don't have the name recognition of some of the more well known players...

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    Chris Moneymaker  (200:1)
    Phil Helmuth  (90:1)
    Doyle Brunson  (50:1)
    Joe Cada  (100:1)
    Phil Ivey  (50:1)

    no value at all on Phil Helmuth... the best players know he is extremely predictable, and if he did manage to get to the final table he would be abused...

    best value would be on long shots who don't have the name recognition of some of the more well known players...

     
    vanzack
    vanzack
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    Posted: Aug. 18, 2010 - 10:13 AM ET #227

    Quote Originally Posted by be easy:



    East Brom > West Brom 

    i have a question. Let's say you get the 100 top poker players in the world, into one tournament, where they each have to pony up 1M of their own money

    now, you are an oddsmaker, and i want to bet on who will win. How do you go about determining opening odds on

    Chris Moneymaker
    Phil Helmuth
    Doyle Brunson
    Joe Cada
    Phil Ivey

    how would i as a sportsbettor, determine value?




    Honestly, I would put them all at 99-1.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by be easy:



    East Brom > West Brom 

    i have a question. Let's say you get the 100 top poker players in the world, into one tournament, where they each have to pony up 1M of their own money

    now, you are an oddsmaker, and i want to bet on who will win. How do you go about determining opening odds on

    Chris Moneymaker
    Phil Helmuth
    Doyle Brunson
    Joe Cada
    Phil Ivey

    how would i as a sportsbettor, determine value?




    Honestly, I would put them all at 99-1.

     
    be easy
    be easy
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    Posted: Aug. 18, 2010 - 10:25 AM ET #228

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Honestly, I would put them all at 99-1.





    c'mon man, shhhhh
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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Honestly, I would put them all at 99-1.





    c'mon man, shhhhh
     
    ApocalypseLater
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    Posted: Aug. 18, 2010 - 11:30 AM ET #229

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Honestly, I would put them all at 99-1.

    as you know, books make odds to get balanced action, and that wouldn't get balanced action... if you were trying to make true odds (without booking any action), i think making the favorites around 90:1 and the dogs no higher than 110:1, with more favs than dogs, would be about right...

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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Honestly, I would put them all at 99-1.

    as you know, books make odds to get balanced action, and that wouldn't get balanced action... if you were trying to make true odds (without booking any action), i think making the favorites around 90:1 and the dogs no higher than 110:1, with more favs than dogs, would be about right...

     
    SuperiorInsight
    SuperiorInsight
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 1:05 AM ET #230

    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

    as you know, books make odds to get balanced action, and that wouldn't get balanced action... if you were trying to make true odds (without booking any action), i think making the favorites around 90:1 and the dogs no higher than 110:1, with more favs than dogs, would be about right...

    Ice4Blood is back. You talk so much shit about covers and the MODS saying you will never post here agian.

    Your cover is straight BLOWN. welcome back 1ce4blood

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    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

    as you know, books make odds to get balanced action, and that wouldn't get balanced action... if you were trying to make true odds (without booking any action), i think making the favorites around 90:1 and the dogs no higher than 110:1, with more favs than dogs, would be about right...

    Ice4Blood is back. You talk so much shit about covers and the MODS saying you will never post here agian.

    Your cover is straight BLOWN. welcome back 1ce4blood

     
    ApocalypseLater
    ApocalypseLater
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 3:59 AM ET #231

    okkkk... and who will i be tomorrow?

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    okkkk... and who will i be tomorrow?

     
    SuperiorInsight
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 5:28 AM ET #232

    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

    okkkk... and who will i be tomorrow?

    Your ice4blood. I know for a fact you were comming soon, guandin, spanlish and eglish. That was confirmed by a very realiable source.

    Your attempt to hide is just absurd and disgraceful. First off, don't get your accounts DELATED one after and another and do the exact same thing with each new account you open. You came to my post with with 4 differnet accounts and bashed me. Your account got delated each and every time.

    Its very OBV that your ice4blood. It's very clear you guys have the exact same personality and TYPE THE EXACT SAME WAY.

    welcome ice4blood. your cover is straight blown

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    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

    okkkk... and who will i be tomorrow?

    Your ice4blood. I know for a fact you were comming soon, guandin, spanlish and eglish. That was confirmed by a very realiable source.

    Your attempt to hide is just absurd and disgraceful. First off, don't get your accounts DELATED one after and another and do the exact same thing with each new account you open. You came to my post with with 4 differnet accounts and bashed me. Your account got delated each and every time.

    Its very OBV that your ice4blood. It's very clear you guys have the exact same personality and TYPE THE EXACT SAME WAY.

    welcome ice4blood. your cover is straight blown

     
    SuperiorInsight
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 5:40 AM ET #233

    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

     

    see, this is exactly why i think this was an interesting topic... that's a great question!

    first off, i would have to ask... how do you determine the "top 100 poker players in the world"?  is it based on tournament winnings?  all earnings?  consistent top finishes?  public opinion?

    beyond that, i think there are two ways to look at it...

    1) obviously guys like Phil Ivey and Doyle Brunson would be among the favorites... first, because they are popular public personalities, and second because they are at the highest skill level...

    2) a smart oddsmaker would not skew the field very much from top to bottom... allow the public to load up on the favorites, because, when it comes down to it, everyone would have a fairly equal chance of winning the whole thing... not truly equal, but also not as skewed as most people would like to believe...

     

    just my opinion... remember, you are going to have guys like Daniel Negreanu, Tom Dwan, Mike Matusow, Eric Seidel, Chris Hansen, Jesus Ferguson, Eric Lindgren, Johnny Chan, Patrick Antonius, Men the Master, etc.... it is a pretty deep field... there is very little separating the top 20-50 players... so it would come down to who gets the cards at the right time...

    the only reason to skew the top few players is because of name recognition and public foolishness...

    let's compare the typing. These are three different posts that you made. You don't ever use Captial letters in your sentences BESDIES when naming people. You always use short paragraphs and always seem to press the enter button. Another thing is you always end your sentencce is .....

    First Post

    for those interested in basketball analysis (i know... what site do i think i am on, right?)...

    tonight's officials are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS favoring the home team in the playoffs... same crew that was assigned to Bos-Orl game 6 (leading Donaghy to suggest Orlando should get their golf clubs ready)... and also game 1 of this series (where Ray Allen and Tony Allen were hit with 5 fouls in the first 10 minutes of the game, leaving nobody to defend Kobe for the rest of the game)... both Pierce and Allen spent most of the game in foul trouble...

    these refs have one job in the NBA... get the home team a win...

     

    Cs are the better team, and i never bet ON the refs, and i rarely bet ON the inferior team... but i do stay away from any big bets when i know i am against them...

    fair warning...

     

    Another Post

    i never said this series was over... YOU said the series was over after game 3, and that anyone who had money on Boston should buy out of their bet laying (-300) on the Lakers...

    anybody who followed your advice had a gun to their head after game 5... whereas, anyone who followed my advice was able to cash out their bet at (-110) instead of (-300)... guaranteed profit...

    since i was already up 13 units, i decided to ride my bets...

    but unlike you, i have never said the series was over...

    Last Post

    Mods... pure and simple... i'm giving you 12 hours...

    ultimatum time... get your shit together or i'm outta here... and while i know that is exactly what you want... some of your most respected cappers do not want me to leave, and are going to be really fucking pissed when they find out that i left because you guys failed to ban someone who obviously should have been banned about 10 death threats ago...

     

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=41&sub=100770477&page=3

    Post #12, 47, 51

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    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

     

    see, this is exactly why i think this was an interesting topic... that's a great question!

    first off, i would have to ask... how do you determine the "top 100 poker players in the world"?  is it based on tournament winnings?  all earnings?  consistent top finishes?  public opinion?

    beyond that, i think there are two ways to look at it...

    1) obviously guys like Phil Ivey and Doyle Brunson would be among the favorites... first, because they are popular public personalities, and second because they are at the highest skill level...

    2) a smart oddsmaker would not skew the field very much from top to bottom... allow the public to load up on the favorites, because, when it comes down to it, everyone would have a fairly equal chance of winning the whole thing... not truly equal, but also not as skewed as most people would like to believe...

     

    just my opinion... remember, you are going to have guys like Daniel Negreanu, Tom Dwan, Mike Matusow, Eric Seidel, Chris Hansen, Jesus Ferguson, Eric Lindgren, Johnny Chan, Patrick Antonius, Men the Master, etc.... it is a pretty deep field... there is very little separating the top 20-50 players... so it would come down to who gets the cards at the right time...

    the only reason to skew the top few players is because of name recognition and public foolishness...

    let's compare the typing. These are three different posts that you made. You don't ever use Captial letters in your sentences BESDIES when naming people. You always use short paragraphs and always seem to press the enter button. Another thing is you always end your sentencce is .....

    First Post

    for those interested in basketball analysis (i know... what site do i think i am on, right?)...

    tonight's officials are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS favoring the home team in the playoffs... same crew that was assigned to Bos-Orl game 6 (leading Donaghy to suggest Orlando should get their golf clubs ready)... and also game 1 of this series (where Ray Allen and Tony Allen were hit with 5 fouls in the first 10 minutes of the game, leaving nobody to defend Kobe for the rest of the game)... both Pierce and Allen spent most of the game in foul trouble...

    these refs have one job in the NBA... get the home team a win...

     

    Cs are the better team, and i never bet ON the refs, and i rarely bet ON the inferior team... but i do stay away from any big bets when i know i am against them...

    fair warning...

     

    Another Post

    i never said this series was over... YOU said the series was over after game 3, and that anyone who had money on Boston should buy out of their bet laying (-300) on the Lakers...

    anybody who followed your advice had a gun to their head after game 5... whereas, anyone who followed my advice was able to cash out their bet at (-110) instead of (-300)... guaranteed profit...

    since i was already up 13 units, i decided to ride my bets...

    but unlike you, i have never said the series was over...

    Last Post

    Mods... pure and simple... i'm giving you 12 hours...

    ultimatum time... get your shit together or i'm outta here... and while i know that is exactly what you want... some of your most respected cappers do not want me to leave, and are going to be really fucking pissed when they find out that i left because you guys failed to ban someone who obviously should have been banned about 10 death threats ago...

     

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=41&sub=100770477&page=3

    Post #12, 47, 51

     
    SuperiorInsight
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 5:44 AM ET #234

    Let's compare the typing. These are three different posts that you made. You don't ever use Captial letters in your sentences BESIDES when naming people. You always use short paragraphs and always seem to press the enter button. Another thing is you always end your sentencce in .....

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    Let's compare the typing. These are three different posts that you made. You don't ever use Captial letters in your sentences BESIDES when naming people. You always use short paragraphs and always seem to press the enter button. Another thing is you always end your sentencce in .....

     
    SuperiorInsight
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 5:50 AM ET #235

    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

    Mikey... to debrief you... someone suggested that debating things with no clear answer is pointless, and that responding to anyone's comments is therefore pointless...

    i disagree, and i believe i showed one example (at the most extreme end of the spectrum) of why his statement was misguided... there are many other such examples, but i find it most useful to find the one that everyone can relate to...

    philosophers in ancient Greece spent hundreds of years engaging in debates, specifically because there was no clear right or wrong answer... religions of the Far East base much of their enlightenment on the ability to ask questions that had no answers...

    i believe it is a rather short-sighted statement to say that a debate is not worthwhile simply because the depth of thought required is too much for the brain to handle... in fact, many would say that those are the most worthwhile debates...

    You want to have a welcome back party ice4blood?

    Just go back to your old account since I blown your cover right off.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

    Mikey... to debrief you... someone suggested that debating things with no clear answer is pointless, and that responding to anyone's comments is therefore pointless...

    i disagree, and i believe i showed one example (at the most extreme end of the spectrum) of why his statement was misguided... there are many other such examples, but i find it most useful to find the one that everyone can relate to...

    philosophers in ancient Greece spent hundreds of years engaging in debates, specifically because there was no clear right or wrong answer... religions of the Far East base much of their enlightenment on the ability to ask questions that had no answers...

    i believe it is a rather short-sighted statement to say that a debate is not worthwhile simply because the depth of thought required is too much for the brain to handle... in fact, many would say that those are the most worthwhile debates...

    You want to have a welcome back party ice4blood?

    Just go back to your old account since I blown your cover right off.

     
    ApocalypseLater
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 6:46 AM ET #236

    Quote Originally Posted by SuperiorInsight:

    Your ice4blood. I know for a fact you were comming soon, guandin, spanlish and eglish. That was confirmed by a very realiable source.

    whoa!  quite a conspiracy theory... sounds like you need to get a more reliable source... especially if it's the same source that supplies you with all of your other information... you don't seem to have a high measure of accuracy with your proclamations...

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    Quote Originally Posted by SuperiorInsight:

    Your ice4blood. I know for a fact you were comming soon, guandin, spanlish and eglish. That was confirmed by a very realiable source.

    whoa!  quite a conspiracy theory... sounds like you need to get a more reliable source... especially if it's the same source that supplies you with all of your other information... you don't seem to have a high measure of accuracy with your proclamations...

     
    ApocalypseLater
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 6:52 AM ET #237

    honestly, i don't even know what you're talking about most of the time, but you have been saying i am different people since the first time you responded to one of my posts... i just figured it was one of your childish tactics for avoiding the real issues... but now i'm just starting to think you are a bit off the deep end...

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    honestly, i don't even know what you're talking about most of the time, but you have been saying i am different people since the first time you responded to one of my posts... i just figured it was one of your childish tactics for avoiding the real issues... but now i'm just starting to think you are a bit off the deep end...

     
    SuperiorInsight
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 7:02 AM ET #238

    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

    honestly, i don't even know what you're talking about most of the time, but you have been saying i am different people since the first time you responded to one of my posts... i just figured it was one of your childish tactics for avoiding the real issues... but now i'm just starting to think you are a bit off the deep end...

    Well for each for those 4 accounts were made by the same IP address. So you can say what you want from that. Read post 237, 239. You guys have the same personality, type the EXACT SAME WAY IN EVERY ASPECT and sory to say but there is nothing you can say to defend yourself. 

    Welcome back ice4blood

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    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

    honestly, i don't even know what you're talking about most of the time, but you have been saying i am different people since the first time you responded to one of my posts... i just figured it was one of your childish tactics for avoiding the real issues... but now i'm just starting to think you are a bit off the deep end...

    Well for each for those 4 accounts were made by the same IP address. So you can say what you want from that. Read post 237, 239. You guys have the same personality, type the EXACT SAME WAY IN EVERY ASPECT and sory to say but there is nothing you can say to defend yourself. 

    Welcome back ice4blood

     
    SuperiorInsight
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 7:05 AM ET #239

    • You always have ..... in the middle of your sentece. Or you end your sentencce in .....
    • Never ever capilitize the first letter in your sentence.
    • Always have very short paragraphs.
    • Both yo guys have a extrememly strong personality.
    • Face the facts, face the music. Welcome back ice4blood
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    • You always have ..... in the middle of your sentece. Or you end your sentencce in .....
    • Never ever capilitize the first letter in your sentence.
    • Always have very short paragraphs.
    • Both yo guys have a extrememly strong personality.
    • Face the facts, face the music. Welcome back ice4blood
     
    SuperiorInsight
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 7:10 AM ET #240

    • For each and every one of those 4 accounts, it was made by the same IP address. So you can say what you want from that.
    • Read post 237, 239. 
    • You guys have the same personality, type the EXACT SAME WAY IN EVERY ASPECT and sorry to say but there is nothing you can say to defend yourself. 
    • Welcome back ice4blood
    • You always have ..... in the middle of your sentence. Or you end your sentence in .....
    • Never ever capilitize the first letter in your sentence.
    • Always have very short paragraphs.
    • Both yo guys have a extrememly strong personality.
    • Face the facts, face the music. Welcome back ice4blood
    Reply
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    • For each and every one of those 4 accounts, it was made by the same IP address. So you can say what you want from that.
    • Read post 237, 239. 
    • You guys have the same personality, type the EXACT SAME WAY IN EVERY ASPECT and sorry to say but there is nothing you can say to defend yourself. 
    • Welcome back ice4blood
    • You always have ..... in the middle of your sentence. Or you end your sentence in .....
    • Never ever capilitize the first letter in your sentence.
    • Always have very short paragraphs.
    • Both yo guys have a extrememly strong personality.
    • Face the facts, face the music. Welcome back ice4blood
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 7:59 AM ET #241

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Honestly, I would put them all at 99-1.


    Sign me up...

    I'll take 50 of the top 100 pros and am 80% sure I will have double my money at the end of the tournament. 

    I am not CERTAIN I will cash, just as you are not certain with any sports bet given the luck factor in each.

    But you will find a TON of action from people who know about poker (plus a boatload more action from the pro's themselves for literally millions of dollars).


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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Honestly, I would put them all at 99-1.


    Sign me up...

    I'll take 50 of the top 100 pros and am 80% sure I will have double my money at the end of the tournament. 

    I am not CERTAIN I will cash, just as you are not certain with any sports bet given the luck factor in each.

    But you will find a TON of action from people who know about poker (plus a boatload more action from the pro's themselves for literally millions of dollars).


     
    be easy
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 9:58 AM ET #242

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    Sign me up...

    I'll take 50 of the top 100 pros and am 80% sure I will have double my money at the end of the tournament. 

    I am not CERTAIN I will cash, just as you are not certain with any sports bet given the luck factor in each.

    But you will find a TON of action from people who know about poker (plus a boatload more action from the pro's themselves for literally millions of dollars).




    what gives your 50 an edge over the other 50?

    random luck?
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    Sign me up...

    I'll take 50 of the top 100 pros and am 80% sure I will have double my money at the end of the tournament. 

    I am not CERTAIN I will cash, just as you are not certain with any sports bet given the luck factor in each.

    But you will find a TON of action from people who know about poker (plus a boatload more action from the pro's themselves for literally millions of dollars).




    what gives your 50 an edge over the other 50?

    random luck?
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2010 - 12:36 PM ET #243

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    Sign me up...

    I'll take 50 of the top 100 pros and am 80% sure I will have double my money at the end of the tournament. 

    I am not CERTAIN I will cash, just as you are not certain with any sports bet given the luck factor in each.

    But you will find a TON of action from people who know about poker (plus a boatload more action from the pro's themselves for literally millions of dollars).


    So in your 50, if we took those 50 - and played a tournament - you could pick out the best 25?

    And so on?

    Im trying to establish if you think there are 50 players better than everyone else, and if so, how did you come up with that number?  You think there is a difference between pro player #50 and #51?  Or even pro player #10 and #90?

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    Sign me up...

    I'll take 50 of the top 100 pros and am 80% sure I will have double my money at the end of the tournament. 

    I am not CERTAIN I will cash, just as you are not certain with any sports bet given the luck factor in each.

    But you will find a TON of action from people who know about poker (plus a boatload more action from the pro's themselves for literally millions of dollars).


    So in your 50, if we took those 50 - and played a tournament - you could pick out the best 25?

    And so on?

    Im trying to establish if you think there are 50 players better than everyone else, and if so, how did you come up with that number?  You think there is a difference between pro player #50 and #51?  Or even pro player #10 and #90?

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2010 - 8:28 AM ET #244

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    So in your 50, if we took those 50 - and played a tournament - you could pick out the best 25?

    And so on?

    Im trying to establish if you think there are 50 players better than everyone else, and if so, how did you come up with that number?  You think there is a difference between pro player #50 and #51?  Or even pro player #10 and #90?


    Of course there is a difference. 

    It's exactly the same as logging onto covers and looking for the 50 best cappers. And if that sample is not helpful, look at the best 25. There are even lists (somewhat legitimate) on this site noting the top 5 cappers and those members are aggressively followed. Their success at capping is effective over the long term because of research, expertise with situational capping, etc. and in some cases rapid cognition or thin-slicing.

    With poker there is even a larger gap between the top pros and good pros and mediocre pros etc. because of the natural and learned ability to apply aggression, bluffs, and make timely calls in many, but not all the ideal spots. 

    Only a small handful of players can be so aggressive over the long-term and win consistently. Tom Dwan, Phil Ivey, Patrick Antonious, Phil Galfond, David Benyamine and others.

    If you think those players are too young, I counter by saying they have amassed more hands of experience online in several weeks than Doyle has live in his entire career. Granted their live game is weaker than Doyle's in certain spots(actually it's stronger for many) but their online game is elite an that is what poker has gravitated towards.

    All in all, yes I would take the top 50 players and be confident with 99-1  odds that the crop of 50 in 100 I'd choose will finish in the money in that same way someone are confident the Saints will cover against the Colts (well not you because you simply bought and sold your picks for porfit). We are never certain though.

    If you gave those odds to Phil Ivey (top cash game player in the world, Tom Dwan and Patrick Antonious (top online players in the world), and Daniel Negreau (one of the top tournament players but the game has passed him by somewhat), I am  certain they would drop 200K to 500K on that bet with you. That's a potential FIFTY MILLION DOLLAR capping mistake if you run a casino, offer those odds and are wrong. 

    Yes, there is a difference between the ELITE PRO and the PRO in name only. Chris Moneymaker is NOT a PRO. He is a Poker player who won the biggest  tournament in the world and now enjoys the rest of his life playing poker through sponsorships. Overall, he may not even be in the black anymore.  REAL poker pros would take every single dime off Moneymaker in a matter of weeks. It is those players who would take down MORE tournaments than not over the long-term in a field of say 100. If you offered them odds based on the number of participants, they would profit wildly and bust any casino.

    I'll take that crop every time and know who to choose as well.
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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    So in your 50, if we took those 50 - and played a tournament - you could pick out the best 25?

    And so on?

    Im trying to establish if you think there are 50 players better than everyone else, and if so, how did you come up with that number?  You think there is a difference between pro player #50 and #51?  Or even pro player #10 and #90?


    Of course there is a difference. 

    It's exactly the same as logging onto covers and looking for the 50 best cappers. And if that sample is not helpful, look at the best 25. There are even lists (somewhat legitimate) on this site noting the top 5 cappers and those members are aggressively followed. Their success at capping is effective over the long term because of research, expertise with situational capping, etc. and in some cases rapid cognition or thin-slicing.

    With poker there is even a larger gap between the top pros and good pros and mediocre pros etc. because of the natural and learned ability to apply aggression, bluffs, and make timely calls in many, but not all the ideal spots. 

    Only a small handful of players can be so aggressive over the long-term and win consistently. Tom Dwan, Phil Ivey, Patrick Antonious, Phil Galfond, David Benyamine and others.

    If you think those players are too young, I counter by saying they have amassed more hands of experience online in several weeks than Doyle has live in his entire career. Granted their live game is weaker than Doyle's in certain spots(actually it's stronger for many) but their online game is elite an that is what poker has gravitated towards.

    All in all, yes I would take the top 50 players and be confident with 99-1  odds that the crop of 50 in 100 I'd choose will finish in the money in that same way someone are confident the Saints will cover against the Colts (well not you because you simply bought and sold your picks for porfit). We are never certain though.

    If you gave those odds to Phil Ivey (top cash game player in the world, Tom Dwan and Patrick Antonious (top online players in the world), and Daniel Negreau (one of the top tournament players but the game has passed him by somewhat), I am  certain they would drop 200K to 500K on that bet with you. That's a potential FIFTY MILLION DOLLAR capping mistake if you run a casino, offer those odds and are wrong. 

    Yes, there is a difference between the ELITE PRO and the PRO in name only. Chris Moneymaker is NOT a PRO. He is a Poker player who won the biggest  tournament in the world and now enjoys the rest of his life playing poker through sponsorships. Overall, he may not even be in the black anymore.  REAL poker pros would take every single dime off Moneymaker in a matter of weeks. It is those players who would take down MORE tournaments than not over the long-term in a field of say 100. If you offered them odds based on the number of participants, they would profit wildly and bust any casino.

    I'll take that crop every time and know who to choose as well.
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2010 - 8:29 AM ET #245

    Quote Originally Posted by be easy:



    what gives your 50 an edge over the other 50?

    random luck?

    Elite Skill (and it takes a lot more skill and practice to be a great poker player than a great sports capper).
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    Quote Originally Posted by be easy:



    what gives your 50 an edge over the other 50?

    random luck?

    Elite Skill (and it takes a lot more skill and practice to be a great poker player than a great sports capper).
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2010 - 8:34 AM ET #246

    This all applies to tournament play because if the blinds are reasonable enough (i.e. small enough to let players engage in real disciplined poker play) and it doesn't turn into a chip shoving match, the top pros will win more tournaments over the long-term.

    Make the blinds too big/too fast and your canary could win a tournament if it could move chips with it's beak.
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    This all applies to tournament play because if the blinds are reasonable enough (i.e. small enough to let players engage in real disciplined poker play) and it doesn't turn into a chip shoving match, the top pros will win more tournaments over the long-term.

    Make the blinds too big/too fast and your canary could win a tournament if it could move chips with it's beak.
     
    Riverboy
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2010 - 8:49 AM ET #247

    scalabrine--congratulations on the best post(s) of the thread so far.
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    scalabrine--congratulations on the best post(s) of the thread so far.
     
    ApocalypseLater
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2010 - 1:11 PM ET #248

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:



    If you think those players are too young, I counter by saying they have amassed more hands of experience online in several weeks than Doyle has live in his entire career.
     
    WHAT!?
     
     
     
     
    almost everything in your post is completely off base...
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:



    If you think those players are too young, I counter by saying they have amassed more hands of experience online in several weeks than Doyle has live in his entire career.
     
    WHAT!?
     
     
     
     
    almost everything in your post is completely off base...
     
    Dude_Abides
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2010 - 1:20 PM ET #249

    Quote Originally Posted by Riverboy:

    scalabrine--congratulations on the best post(s) of the thread so far.

    Amazed scalabrine hasn't protested against the color of the cards. Like I mean, black and red

    Talk about keeping the Blacks and Indians to the level of 'entertainment' for people around the world

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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverboy:

    scalabrine--congratulations on the best post(s) of the thread so far.

    Amazed scalabrine hasn't protested against the color of the cards. Like I mean, black and red

    Talk about keeping the Blacks and Indians to the level of 'entertainment' for people around the world

     
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2010 - 8:30 PM ET #250

    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

     
    WHAT!?
     
     
     
     
    almost everything in your post is completely off base...

    You clearly have never multi-tabled online, nor have you played Rush Poker on Full Tilt (where you're immediately sent to another table and dealt cards as soon as you fold your hand from the 1st table)
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    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

     
    WHAT!?
     
     
     
     
    almost everything in your post is completely off base...

    You clearly have never multi-tabled online, nor have you played Rush Poker on Full Tilt (where you're immediately sent to another table and dealt cards as soon as you fold your hand from the 1st table)
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