Poker Players - do you think that poker is beatable longterm?

W8 said it best below, if you gamble alot, this is the best way to go...

Poker is a game of skill, Sports betting is a game oof skill too.

But for poker, tourney play you won't make money there. You can make it in cash games, IF YOU PLAY DISCPLINED. There will be bad days for you, you need ot just walk away. When I was in college, I made some big money playing with my theory...

I walked in and played with a set amount. If I lost it, I left and was done. If I was up, I kept playing. I maximized my good days, and minimized my bad days.

sure you can improve.  The more you play, the more hands you see and the different situations occur that you can learn from.  Look at the top pros in the world.  Do you really think they are always sitting with eachother?  No, 75 percent of the time they are taking money off of some rich billionaire who wants to sit down with them.  The other 25 percent, when they are playing together, they each have their own tendencies taht they pick up on.  If you slip, you will be caught and will have your money taken.  But most of the time these guys make their money from people who THINK they can sit with them, and they get destroyed.

Nothing personal.....

But I dont buy any of this.  "Good days" and "bad days" are invisible to probabillity and mathematics.  That is a human explanation for randomness and variance.

A "day" is a random period of time assigned by you to compartmentalize data in an understandable format - it has nothing to do with longterm probabilities or expected results or value.

Like I said, nothing personal.

You are talking about cash games I think here....

I am talking about tournaments.

If your theory was right, you could easily go back and find that in the last 10 years the same top players had a higher winning percentage than other "group B" players.  Is that the case?  Not from what I know.

There is a pool of players that are statistically similar in terms of results.  There are not players exhibiting the type of skill you state (if it does indeed exist) - and if there were - we would see it in the results.

Am I wrong here?

I understand what you're saying and agree with your point but I think we are agreeing with regards to tourney play and not cash play. Also, there is a significant different if we're talking online play or live play.

In cash games the better players win over the long term. Heck my avergage hourly earning in poker has steadily increased as I've read more and gained experience and skill. This %hit you see on TV is not in ANY way indictative of how these top players play on a daily basis. While bragging rights are important they spend the majority of their time taking money from players with less skill.

When I sit at a table and feel like I don't have as much skill as most players at the table I typically leave. If a player I feel I have more skill than constantly beats me when I have my money in with the best hand it really doesn't phase me and I grind it out b/c over time I will come out on top.

I'd say poker is: Skill - Experience - Luck -

I'd say sportsbetting is - Experience - Skill - Luck

  Rocky, I completely agree.  And Vanzack, you are correct.  Eventually the good players will beat each other's brains in, while the house gets rich off the rakes and entry fees. 

A good example is Daniel Negreanu, who was the 2004 player of the year.  Now he would be considered a bum if not for his PokerStars sponsorship. 

First off I love poker and disagree with people saying you can only make money in cash games. You can make money from tourneys too as long as you use bankroll management. It might take longer and be more annoying when you busy out to only make your money back but its honestly not that hard to cash its only hard to last long enough to make final table. You can play in $1 tourneys (10K guarenteed) where first place is 3K. Considering you should be able to cash in over half the games you play its really not that hard.

Don't be a hater.

Poker is an extremely hard game. You can have cold streaks and hot streaks that can go for days or even weeks. Aside from all the math its also a mental mind game where the strong will persevere. Its very hard not to tilt when the odds are constantly in your favor and you lose. The majority of people will just lose and then start ragging on poker because they can't win. There is so much more then just math and bluffing. So many situational plays and spots you need to learn to bet to take pots. I read someones comments about risking your whole stack 5 to 6 times a tourney.... you should NEVER be doing this.

I know this thread is about tourneys but being able to pick your opponents for cash games is definitely a plus. Sometimes I'll play heads up and look for bad players to take advantage of.

As far as betting on sports vs poker... I'd bet sports anyday of the week. Its easier I find.