Poker Players - do you think that poker is beatable longterm?

W8 said it best below, if you gamble alot, this is the best way to go...

Poker is a game of skill, Sports betting is a game oof skill too.

But for poker, tourney play you won't make money there. You can make it in cash games, IF YOU PLAY DISCPLINED. There will be bad days for you, you need ot just walk away. When I was in college, I made some big money playing with my theory...

 

I walked in and played with a set amount. If I lost it, I left and was done. If I was up, I kept playing. I maximized my good days, and minimized my bad days.

 

sure you can improve.  The more you play, the more hands you see and the different situations occur that you can learn from.  Look at the top pros in the world.  Do you really think they are always sitting with eachother?  No, 75 percent of the time they are taking money off of some rich billionaire who wants to sit down with them.  The other 25 percent, when they are playing together, they each have their own tendencies taht they pick up on.  If you slip, you will be caught and will have your money taken.  But most of the time these guys make their money from people who THINK they can sit with them, and they get destroyed.

Nothing personal.....

But I dont buy any of this.  "Good days" and "bad days" are invisible to probabillity and mathematics.  That is a human explanation for randomness and variance.

A "day" is a random period of time assigned by you to compartmentalize data in an understandable format - it has nothing to do with longterm probabilities or expected results or value.

Like I said, nothing personal.

You are talking about cash games I think here....

I am talking about tournaments.

If your theory was right, you could easily go back and find that in the last 10 years the same top players had a higher winning percentage than other "group B" players.  Is that the case?  Not from what I know.

There is a pool of players that are statistically similar in terms of results.  There are not players exhibiting the type of skill you state (if it does indeed exist) - and if there were - we would see it in the results.

Am I wrong here?

I've got a buddy who eats sleeps and breaths poker. Been very sucessfull, and has moves all around the world playing. Australia to vegas to naples to boston and back in vegas now.... and will not touch tourneys for more than a few bucks here or there. Just plays cash games, about 16 tables at a time online. Net he made 350k last year and knows his shit. He played in the WSOP the last 2 years but only becuse peple staked him in. tournys rnt the money makers.

I understand what you're saying and agree with your point but I think we are agreeing with regards to tourney play and not cash play. Also, there is a significant different if we're talking online play or live play.

In cash games the better players win over the long term. Heck my avergage hourly earning in poker has steadily increased as I've read more and gained experience and skill. This %hit you see on TV is not in ANY way indictative of how these top players play on a daily basis. While bragging rights are important they spend the majority of their time taking money from players with less skill.

When I sit at a table and feel like I don't have as much skill as most players at the table I typically leave. If a player I feel I have more skill than constantly beats me when I have my money in with the best hand it really doesn't phase me and I grind it out b/c over time I will come out on top.

I'd say poker is: Skill - Experience - Luck -

I'd say sportsbetting is - Experience - Skill - Luck

This.

Interesting thread.

  Rocky, I completely agree.  And Vanzack, you are correct.  Eventually the good players will beat each other's brains in, while the house gets rich off the rakes and entry fees. 

A good example is Daniel Negreanu, who was the 2004 player of the year.  Now he would be considered a bum if not for his PokerStars sponsorship. 

this day in age I agree with you. look at the series the last 10 years and how it has changed. 20 years ago i think plenty of people made a killing off of tourny play. its just to popular now and the odds have significantly decreased youy skill and made it a game of luck

First off I love poker and disagree with people saying you can only make money in cash games. You can make money from tourneys too as long as you use bankroll management. It might take longer and be more annoying when you busy out to only make your money back but its honestly not that hard to cash its only hard to last long enough to make final table. You can play in $1 tourneys (10K guarenteed) where first place is 3K. Considering you should be able to cash in over half the games you play its really not that hard.

Don't be a hater.

**bust out

Poker is an extremely hard game. You can have cold streaks and hot streaks that can go for days or even weeks. Aside from all the math its also a mental mind game where the strong will persevere. Its very hard not to tilt when the odds are constantly in your favor and you lose. The majority of people will just lose and then start ragging on poker because they can't win. There is so much more then just math and bluffing. So many situational plays and spots you need to learn to bet to take pots. I read someones comments about risking your whole stack 5 to 6 times a tourney.... you should NEVER be doing this.

poker is WAY WAY WAY more easily beatable than sports.   i play online about 10 hours a week and am very familiar with the game and the community.

most good poker players dont even have losing months.  i havent had a losing month in as long as i can remember. 

the simplest fact is that in poker you can choose who you play against, and you can play against donkeys at lowish stakes if you want.  in sports betting you are up against the best everyday betting into the same lines.

there are MANY MANY MANY young kids out there making a lot of money playing poker these days. 

venture over to twoplustwo.com

I know this thread is about tourneys but being able to pick your opponents for cash games is definitely a plus. Sometimes I'll play heads up and look for bad players to take advantage of.

As far as betting on sports vs poker... I'd bet sports anyday of the week. Its easier I find.

im strictly a cash game player, but there are many guys who do well with online tourneys as well.  live tourneys are a whole other story - like was mentioned, no one is really profiting long run off of those unless you are sponsored.  but many of the online and live tourney players are staked so that many of their expenses are covered and they and their backer i guess come out ahead.

cheating exists in everything including the US stock market.  but full tilt keeps sending me checks so it must be rigged in my favor.

if you guys arent familiar, a site tableratings.com tracks all cash game players.  look up nanonoko for example, he is one of the best.
durrrr is up millions and millions. 

https://www.pokertableratings.com/fulltilt-player-search/durrrr

durrr is up over 7 million online. 


look at this guys graph and the number of hands he has played and tell me poker is rigged or that its not long term beatable.

https://www.pokertableratings.com/stars-player-search/nanonoko

sharkscope.com tracks online tournament winnings.

click on leaderboards. 

Holy Fuck.... He plays 24 tables at the same time?  LOL.. My computer would freeze up.

To be quite honest, I don't know if I would want my picture posted publicly with stats saying that I have won millions of dollars. That could be asking for trouble in many ways.

https://www.pokerxfactor.com/

the guys who run this poker tourney training site (Bax and Sheets) run a really large backing business.  meaning they pay for players' entries and travel expenses into online and live tournies and they and the player split the winnings.

im certain they had at least 20 people they staked in the recent world series of poker, and i wouldnt be the least bit suprised if they backed 100+ players in that tournament.  

hey slovak, RelentlessD=electricladyland? Sounds like the same bullshit he would spew.

The Giant loves him some rake

imagine that a whole boat load of anecdotes and people who swear they are good enough to 'win longterm'. is that what you expected vanzack?

poker is so fucking boring. you want a good experiment, let the 'B' group players play poker with a table full of other 'B' groupies that are actually blind. like can't see blind. the game is simple, the math is simple, and luck is certainly more of a factor in poker then in sports wagering.

ask The Giant. my dog could play him straight up in Texas Hold um poker and the dog could accidentally push all in and then chew up his cards, and the Giant would have the nuts and still fold. must suck to be such a mush that my grandma could bluff you out of a winner.