Posted:
#76
Quote Originally Posted by EastCarolinaU:
Do you post on any ECU boards?
no sir 
I do read them from time to time tho.
NCAA wk 6
Posted:
#78
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Thread Summary
Picks
Tulsa -7
Miami +8.5 
Wyoming +25 
Table of Contents for Write-Ups
Tulsa / ULM
Miami / Florida St
Thursday / Friday games and Wyoming / Air Force
UP NEXT 
Big 12 (promised somebody would do that conference first this week)
Cal / Utah
Big 10
Navy / Notre Dame
Thanks MEGA
PUT IN TULSA -10, MIAMI +9 , WYOMING +24 already.
Posted:
#79
Quote Originally Posted by Temple71:
your Miami call is making me sick
…but me likes the rest
your Miami call is making me sick
…but me likes the rest
.....I am making myself sick !
dntn - GL. Play safe. We always say it - but recommend only 3% bankroll on any one play.....
Baylor 44 Kansas (77)
Megalocks line 38
Sagarin 34
Hard to believe that the Baylor team total is going to be 60+ ....but then again - they have scored 56 66 70 63 - so it just might be #lockcityUSA....we are just going to avoid this one I mean they should cover 44 but really who knows? With real big12 teams on deck - have to believe backups get in early - do not think anyone would be extra impressed by scoring 80 vs 50 .....Kansas goes with a true FR at QB due to numerous injuries in their depth chart - something called a Ryan Willis gets the call....Most of us feels sorry for Kansas - but a small part of us does want to see if Baylor can get 100 pts with backups playing the 2nd half.
Summary. No thanks.
mega
Posted:
#80
Oklahoma 17 Texas (61.5)
Megalocks line 18
Sagarin 21
We return to the scene of the crime of last year's 2452854058243907 star BOMB Texas play that shocked the globe....What is really amazing is that joking aside Texas was actually pretty decent last yr - at least on D - and we played them quite a few times and they finished the season above .500 ATS....We do not even recognize this team?? Huge rivalry game obviously and the only game worth playing probably now for Texas but they have given up 38 28 45 30 50 and face an Oklahoma team that has scored 44 31 52 44 and played a decent schedule...They were helped by 5 TO against WV but this appears to be one team we nailed -were pretty high from the get-go on the Sooners and looking forward to their final 3 when they get Baylor TCU Okie St back to back to back.
Summary. Line looks about right.....Not going to have any cash associated with this game - but if we had to make a correct prediction or leave Covers forever would have to take Sooners - and probably the TT over.
mega
Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by turbojackhammer:
Hi MEGA, i will follow your final picks for this week as follows:
Hi MEGA, i will follow your final picks for this week as follows:
tulsa-9.5
miami +8.5
wyoming+24
so how about WASH+17 do u still pick this team??
Thanks
hey buddy
I am not going to have any cash on the USC/Wash game - but if I wanted a little taste of action I would go with the Huskies no lower than +17. Play safe and GL
Posted:
#84
TCU 9 Kansas St (63.5)
Megalocks line 10
Sagarin 8.5
Line looks pretty much perfect to us - can see both sides of this one...Kansas St in general almost an impossible fade - they are a truly remarkable 36-18 ATS last 4 yrs and change even tho everyone knows how dangerous they are and how well coached they are...Lost late to okie st....#4 in NCAA in run D yds/carry and do a great job with time of possession....The worry is the schedule they have played (??) and the fact that they have given up 33 36 last 2 games- one was a multiple OT affair with LT but we think that TCU can MATRICULATE on this secondary.....TCU has scored 70 56 55 50 after the opening week struggle vs a good Minny D....#2 offense and while they seem unstoppable - their D does have some holes and they have been shown to be vulnerable to 2 different styles of teams - Minny/Tex Tech.
Summary. See? Tossup Unless you are a Big12 guy. We just have no idea on this one ATS.
mega
Posted:
#88
MEGA
What is your take on the Syracuse 70/ S Florida 63 Sargin ratings. & point diff but S. Florida is -3. Last week we had Navy/Air Force in this situation. Ive found that anything of a 5 pt difference is good indicator. the diff id 10 here. **Find the illusion, you find the winner** . What your take.
Posted:
#92
Mega ... I'll wait till you go over the games ... but I'm on FIU - 14 ..no problem with the Miners ... Southern Miss + 7 ... they win this SU ... too much offense for a Marshall team that's faced only # 57 Purdue's Passing attack ... They won't know what hit em ... Despite rivalry game .. Okla - 15 buries Texas ... Horns in trouble ... Under NW / Mich ... 12 points scored in this one .. tops ...
Good Luck this week !!
Posted:
#93
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Virginia Tech pk NC State (50)
Megalocks line pk
Sagarin pk
Well NC St finally lost a game last wk after rolling off 7 wins in a row including a bowl win....They were victimized last wk by a scrambling QB for Louisville who passed for 100+ and ran for 100+ and a TD....NC St has given up 21 0 14 13 20 in 5 games and while their schedule has been pretty weak we think they can stop VT from doing much offensively...As much as it makes you want to throw up in your own mouth - VT can get right in the thick of things in the ACC with a win here they avoid Fla St and Clemson...both teams gonna be very jacked up....Hearing that Brewer might be back at QB for Va Tech but he was out with a "broken skeleton" so not sure how that can be - but NC St has the best QB on the field IMO on a 30 td pass to 5 int ratio dating back to last yr.....VT has home field and like we said a tougher sched so far so tough to back the road team here without getting a FG......especially since NC St should be able to run the ball against the #101 rush D....and #109 in yds/carry.
Summary - strong lean NC St - think we may see this game in one way or another on our final card just need to mull it over.
mega
ADDING - VIRGINIA TECH TT under 24.5 (Sports Interaction)
Posted:
#94
West Virginia 7 Okie St (58.5)
Megalocks line - 6
Sagarin -5
Line looks about right - but our gut tells us maybe these teams are really really close ? Oklahoma St has done nothing wrong - 5-0 - winning the last 2 games in the last minute vs Texas and K St....Is there enough in the tank this wk for a 3rd straight gut check? Cowboys ranked last in the Big12 in rushing offense and that is not a stat we enjoy when trying to play an underdog....Being one dimensional not going to be an easy way to go vs WV....Mountaineers statistically very good and balanced no offense - D stats good but really have not played more than one decent QB and the Sooners hit them for almost 13 yds/attemptso might be a few big plays in there for okie st....WV also very good in turnover margin and on 3rd down D and O. Tough call.
Summary. No leanage.
mega
Posted:
#95
Quote Originally Posted by bshoe43:
hey mega. love the info/breakdown of games... regarding crackpipe special... think there is a stat about teams record week after playing navy. don't fare well at all. makes hitting the pipe that much better!
hey mega. love the info/breakdown of games... regarding crackpipe special... think there is a stat about teams record week after playing navy. don't fare well at all. makes hitting the pipe that much better!
Team Records the week after playing Navy:
134-174-1 (43.5%) Straight Up
148-143-3 (50.9%) ATS
Since 1980
37-47-0 (44.0%)
41-42-1 (49.4%)
Niumatalolo era (2007-present)
Posted:
#96
Texas Tech 12.5 Iowa St (74.5)
Megalocks line 13
Sagarin 7.5
At first glance this looked like a FREE SQUARE for you degenerates out there....But once again - we are left asking ourselves - is Iowa St good or bad? Probably somewhere in between but this team drives us nuts every year on paper just do not do much for us yet always come up with a wtf game or two to keep you on your toes....They lost in OT on the road to a very good Toledo team and played Iowa toe to toe for 3Q....did what they needed against N Iowa and Kansas....We see the Sagarin ratings and as you know - just use them as a frame of reference and when they are way off from the spread and/or our PR we take a deeper look.....Here is what we found take it or leave it.......
While our gut tells us ....and They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy....must be thinking is that high powered offense will shred them up....well check out the last 5 games between these 2 teams
34-31 at iowa st - win by 3
42-35 H iowa st - win by 7
24-13 at iowa st - win by 11
7-41 H iowa st - lose by 34
38-52 at iowa st - lose by 14
Now these are different teams, different players .....we are in a different oil price environment....etc.....but this we do not see a Tex Tech monster win in there and maybe just maybe HC Rhoads has TT figured out a bit? Plus TT off losses to Baylor and TCU - already 2 conf losses now get iowa St. Letdown city.
TT offense #3 but D #124 and iowa st finding a run game- M Warren 18-175 2 td rushing last wk.
Summary - lean Iowa St would want 14 or better; Might just get that on gameday or maybe earlier.
mega
Posted:
#99
MEGALOCKS INC.
I've been following your NCAAFB threads since 2005. I've never had much to contribute, I just really like your philosophy on betting/handicapping college football games (as well as your sense of humor). I created an account here for the first time to basically say thank you for sharing with us! Keep on moving lines and changing lives!
I've been following your NCAAFB threads since 2005. I've never had much to contribute, I just really like your philosophy on betting/handicapping college football games (as well as your sense of humor). I created an account here for the first time to basically say thank you for sharing with us! Keep on moving lines and changing lives!
Posted:
#100
Quote Originally Posted by pjam37:
MEGA
What is your take on the Syracuse 70/ S Florida 63 Sargin ratings. & point diff but S. Florida is -3. Last week we had Navy/Air Force in this situation. Ive found that anything of a 5 pt difference is good indicator. the diff id 10 here. **Find the illusion, you find the winner** . What your take.
hey buddy. Good post
My take. Whenever I see I big discrepancy between SAG / spread - and to a lesser extent - between SAG and my PR - I look to see why that might be - Some of the time it is new cluster of injuries or star QB out (therefore - SAG does not reflect that) ....BUT - other times when there is nothing obvious we do digging and agree you very often find gems ! Sometimes we are too chicken to play them tho - last wk NW was a huge discrepancy vs Minn - we chickened out and you saw what happened - at a minimum we left Minny out of our ML underdog parlays - but probably should have looked harder at NW....To your point - and a GOOD ONE - the illusion in that case was that Minny/NW were very close - but the reality said otherwise proven in the result - public underrated good games vs Stanford and Duke. Of course this is all just handicapping and opinion but that is what makes it fun. So I do lean Cuse for sure this wk just not sure about their QB situation. Iowa St was one we just pointed out again do not have the guts but think Iowa St catching 2 TD would be a very nice play. GL ! mega
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